The great shadow over the Nigerian economy this year (2013) is the fear that the insecurity in the northern parts of the country will continue to harm the bottom line for businesses, particularly the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry.

But it is also an ominous prospect for the Federal Government that would have to respond with speed and conviction.

The issue can matter a great deal to the forecasts of analysts, most of who told BusinessDay they are optimistic about the prospects of the country and the economy in 2013.

Bismark Rewane of the Financial Derivatives Company’s recent comment sums up their conviction for the year. “With a GDP forecast of 7.03 percent, it is hard to see businesses not growing in 2013.

“We see the effect of the macro-economic stability on the micro-economy, where average Nigerians can feel the impact of the growth in the economy,” MKO Balogun, Managing Director,WSP-FMC Nigeria Ltd, told BusinessDay.

“Prices of goods and services are expected to be stable, more jobs to be created by the economy, with investments in the power sector coming on stream after the conclusion of the sale of the generation and distribution companies of PHCN.”

He is optimistic that the passage of the 2013 budget will also aid planning and understanding of government direction and eventually aid development and investment.

“All the signs are positive and we look forward to a great year for the economy.”

The positive signs are likewise underscored by their convictions that inflation will reach single digit, and that oil prices will remain robust.

“We expect the Bonny Light to trade sideways in a USD105-110 pbl range,” says Samir Gadio of Standard Bank, London. “We suspect a more accommodative liquidity environment and lower fixed income yields in 2013 should support the recovery in the stock market,” Gadio added.

Gadio said that the low rate environment in developed countries, coupled with accommodative liquidity conditions, should underpin sustained capital flows into emerging markets and Nigeria, which will help accumulate further FX reserves.

“That said, the imbroglio over the status of the Sovereign Wealth Fund may limit the build-up of fiscal savings in the ECA. We see FX reserves increasing to USD55bn in late 2013 in a base scenario. At this stage, we still feel the exchange rate will hover around 156-158 in 2013 if the oil price remains robust, yields in developed countries low, and global liquidity conditions favourable.”

But there are also policy issues that could derail all of these forecasts, as highlighted by Tony Anakebe, a maritime analyst. Anakebe says that he sees a lot of activities that will bring positive growth, particularly in the Nigerian maritime industry.

“But for us to get there, government should repair the Apapa-Oshodi Expressway, remove the congestion on the road, by reducing the rate at which trucks park indiscriminately on the road.”

That is an issue for the maritime sector. But all of the projections point at an increased level of hiring in the course of the year.

In her forecast for 2013, Tina Egbuiwe, a recruitment consultant and the managing consultant of ProSolutions Consulting Limited, sees hope for new jobs in the banking industry but pointed that the focus would mostly be for highly skilled/experienced employees, rather than on entry level.

“The financial sector promises to create more jobs by 2013 with new banks coming up and the old banks trying to upgrade. There is hope for some of the experienced workers who lost their jobs, because the banks would be more interested in experienced workers than in entry level ones.

The opportunities will be very competitive in the already saturated labour market because mostly highly skilled people would be needed for the positions to be created in the sector,” she pointed out.

http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/news/76-hot-topic/49695-analysts-welcome-2013-with-optimism-high-expectations