ndu_chucks:

Pathological and bloody liars have started again o!! They continue to use the ignorance of their constituents and praise singers such as many on this thread including Sincere9gerian/taharqa to attempt to make themselves look good.

Given that I don't enjoy writing epistles like one Gbawe or Sam_Ikenna, I'll briefly support my statement that theses people are bloody liars by explaining what constitutes Nigeria's foreign reserves - this should keep the jobbers and other goons from waywardly and willy nilly criticizing my stance.

Nigeria's foreign reserves are made up of three components — the federation, the federal government, and the CBN portions.

The federation component is made up of excess crude and royalty accounts, which are only looted shared (used) as the need arises. It is clear that the sharp decrease in the value of import in Aganga's claims did not increase this component

In the case of federal government component, it is made of up funds belonging to some agencies of government, such as NNPC for its Joint Venture funding. Here again, clearly the sharp decrease in the value of import in Aganga's claims could not have miraculously increased government agency funds. It is insane to make such a claim.

The last component is the CBN portion which is made of up monetized funds. The funds are dollar inflows, which the CBN receives and keeps on behalf of the three tiers of government. The money in the foreign reserve accounts becomes practically CBN's. This it uses in conducting its monetary policy, in defending the value of the naira from time to time. So I ask Alhaji Aganga, how did this sharp decrease in the value of import become miraculously monetized and end up in CBN coffers?

We can see clearly than trhe said decrease in the value of import could not have increased any component of Nigeria's foreign exchange and the CBN portion in particular - since this is the component which most Nigerians associate with foreign reserves.

Alhaji Aganga, please carry your lies elsewhere, go and learn how to lie properly from Ngozi. mumu


You're so so negative and I wonder what you're trying to achieve

You are fully aware that the 3rd component you mentioned (CBN defending the Naira!) is where people looking for Dollars to import goods go to!
So, if people are not importing then the demand for dollars declines and hence the Naira appreciates and ofcourse the foreign reserve will grow.
It is very elementary and very clear even from your own write-up!

Men, Nigeria is our ONLY coountry oh!
Try your best to help build!

@taharqa, I don't have time for foolishness today and if you have the capability and intelligence to engage me in a focused manner, I'd recommend that you do so.

Here is the statement I challenged, in case you missed it:

Aganga:

The good and exciting news is that the fall was as a result of a sharp decrease in the value of import from about N9.8tn to about N5.6tn by the end of 2012. That was a decrease of about 43 per cent in savings of more than N4.2tn, which has gone to the increase in the foreign reserves of our country.

I presented my case to support that the quote is a bold face lie and explained why it is impossible to increase our foreign reserves due to a decrease in the value of import. If you cannot show us how that is possible, then get lost.

I am not here to argue that the foreign reserves have not increased, I am saying that Aganga's statement in the quote above is a bold face lie. Any increase in our foreign reserves is due primarily to the price of oil and other factors NOT including a decrease in the value of import,.

gtrust:





You're so so negative and I wonder what you're trying to achieve

You are fully aware that the 3rd component you mentioned (CBN defending the Naira!) is where people looking for Dollars to import goods go to!
So, if people are not importing then the demand for dollars declines and hence the Naira appreciates and ofcourse the foreign reserve will grow.
It is very elementary and very clear even from your own write-up!

Men, Nigeria is our ONLY coountry oh!
Try your best to help build it!

No!! Let the IGNORAMUS try to defend what he just wrote then again. AM actually waiting for these CLOWNS who somehow believe that they NEED to criticize every move of this man, even when the attempt just make them look STU.PID.

ndu_chucks: @taharqa, I don't have time for foolishness today and if you have the capability and intelligence to engage me in a focused manner, I'd recommend that you do so.

Here is the statement I challenged, in case you missed it:



I presented my case to support that the quote is a bold face lie and explained why it is impossible to increase our foreign reserves due to a decrease in the value of import. If you cannot show us how that is possible, then get lost.

I am not here to argue that the foreign reserves have not increased, I am saying that Aganga's statement in the quote above is a bold face lie. Any increase in our foreign reserves is due primarily to the price of oil and other factors NOT including a decrease in the value of import,.

And if by now, you still do not know you are making a COMPLETE AZZZ of yourself by your amazing IGNORANCE, I honestly do not wish to waste my time on you any more.

So BOUNCE.

gtrust: ndu_chucks:

You are fully aware that the 3rd component you mentioned (CBN defending the Naira!) is where people looking for Dollars to import goods go to!
So, if people are not importing then the demand for dollars declines and hence the Naira appreciates and ofcourse the foreign reserve will grow.
It is very elementary and very clear even from your own write-up!

Men, Nigeria is our ONLY coountry oh!
Try your best to help build!

You are yet to prove to me that Aganga's statement was not a lie. Show me how his claim foreign reserves was increased by N4.2tn according to his statement: "That was a decrease of about 43 per cent in savings of more than N4.2tn, which has gone to the increase in the foreign reserves of our country"

Mind you, I am not saying that the decrease in the value of import has zero effect. I am simply calling his gross exaggeration a blatant lie. You are yet to prove me wrong, buddy.

@taharqa, it must be sad to be you It does not take a genius to see the blatant exaggeration in Aganga's statement which jobbers like you would routinely accept, hook, line, and sinker.

Moving on, Nigeria would very soon not only stop to import Steel Bars/Beams But would start exporting them this year.

This was on the Frontpage earlier this month:

https://www.nairaland.com/1252437/nigeria-starts-exportation-steel-april

Nigeria's dream of becoming a major player in the steel sector is finally coming to reality, as its first consignment of steel for export begins this month. African Foundries Limited, a foreign company operating in Nigeria, will begin export of steel to Ghana this April, to finally break the jinx and put the country on the global steel map.

African Foundries Limited, with production capacity of 500,000 tons of steel billets, has a state of the art continuous rolling facility, and is the only TMT producing mill in Nigeria, and its first export consignment is about five metric tons.

Sanjay Kumar,the company’s managing director, said exports would commence on April 27, 2013.

“Today is a proud and pleasant moment, and we are showcasing our feat to announce the breakthrough, because we have started to produce for export,” Kumar declared, adding that the firm started with one five ton capacity induction furnace in 2010.

Kumar added that the company now has multiple furnaces of bigger capacity, along with a re-bar mill and a structural rolling mill, with current capacity at 500,000 tons per year.

“With this plant and the two others in Ikorodu, Lagos and Suleja, in Niger state, we are targeting 1 million metric tons per year to be able to position ourselves for the 1.5 million metric tons Nigerians demand for steel.”

African Steel mill has 200,000 metric tons capacity while Abuja Steel mills in Suleja which will be commissioned soon have 150,000 metric tons per year capacity.

Kumar said the company's products are at par with what obtains in other parts of the world, adding that the main component is scraps sourced by about 5,000 otherwise unemployed youths.

African Foundries' clients are drawn from the construction industry, where lots of heavy construction projects are on-going across the country. This is complemented by the normal market consumption from the 36 states.

“Big construction firms depend on us and we produce to their specifications”, says Kumar who highlighted several challenges of which infrastructure and import duty regime are key.

“The steel industry will develop better, if the import regime is favourable. Nigeria is one of the richest ,especially in iron-ore, and the development of the industry will put the country at par with others in five years,” Sanjay said, adding that infrastructure such as good roads is hampering production.

The country’s feat is coming on the heels of the Federal Government’s protracted failures to develop the steel sector due to mismanagement and abandonment of its several steel companies.

The Federal Government in 1971 established an extra-ministerial agency called “Nigerian Steel Development Authority” (NSDA) and backed up by Decree to focalise efforts required to focalise a steel plant.

The agency that was later dissolved, gave birth to Ajaokuta Steel Project, Ajaokuta, Delta Steel Company, Ovwian - Aladja , Jos Steel Rolling Company, Jos , and Katsina Steel Rolling Company, Katsina.

Others are Oshogbo Steel Rolling Company, Oshogbo, National Iron Ore Mining Company, Itakpe, National Steel Raw Materials Exploration Agency, Kaduna, National Metallurgical Development Center, Jos and Metallurgical Training Institute, Onitsha.

Today however, despite the huge resources ploughed into Nigeria’s steel industry, the sector has been comatose and Ajaokuta Steel Complex, Kogi State; Delta Steel Complex, Aladja, Delta State; Osogbo Steel Rolling Mill and Katsina Steel Rolling Mill, are in pathetic situations.

But where the government has failed, African Foundries Ltd, a flagship of the African Steel Mill group, commissioned in 2011 and located in Ogijo, Ogun state has succeeded and will begin export of about 5,000 metric tons of TMT rebar to Ghana by the third week of April.

http://businessdaynigeria.com/nigeria-begins-export-steel-april

@ndu_chuks pls learn to concede ground when ts obvious, thats what makes u an educated person. simple econs shows thers a direct link btw foreign researv and forex demand/ supply. there are other components to it but if there is an addtion and importers demand for dolars didnt arise the addition ll remain and vise versa.
pls nigerans even foreign media ve been reporting abt this economy believe it. Southafricans are seriously moving ther pension/mutual fund to invest in nig. pls learn to save if u have up to 100k invest in banking and commodity shares invest in poultry farm, paint making etc or u will be overtakng by events

Good to know about these positive statistics. But they still remain statistics, below are some facts, there are about 5 major textile and allied industries in Kaduna namely, UNTL, Arewa textile, Finetex, supertex,KTL, they directly employ over 50,000 people, and produce over 40% of our local textile needs. These textile industries are still closed and not producing, and the same applies to the textile industries in Kano, Zamfara and Katsina. Please in the name of God almighty, where did this deceptive minister get his statistics that we are producing textile locally? The same thing applies to groundnut oil, let the minister come to our border towns and see how smugled G/oil have taken out Stallion Group who are the major importers of G/oil and are selling at price drastically below them. Please let not come speak grammer about our economy, it is our prayers that things turn around for the better during this administration, but it has to be through sincerity and purposeful goverment not psychopancy and propaganda. Magnus Kpakpol readily comes to mind when I read of this kind of statistics, remember the guy said poverty is no longer a problem in Nigeria when he was head of NAPEP

Most nairalanders dont like good news! Even fools have seen the aluminium can factories that were built and are in operation, even fools have seen factories, steel mill, etc start up and is in operation yet some anti-GEJ, pro-buhari sadist will come and say nigeria is nt producimg anything! All the want to hear is "icc charges Gej for BAGA massacre" ,"nigeria loses $100bn due to PIB stalling" ,"US SAYS JONATHAN IS VERY CORRUPT" . . . . . .etc! While the same freaking us will acknwoledge the sharp economic growth and and investment potentials as well as medium infrastructural upliftment, without realizing that those things can not be indeed possible if GeJ Is more corrupt than his predeccesors, the fuctarians called pro-buhari anti-GEJ sadist are a disgrace to our dear motherland.

Specifically, for vegetable oil production, import fell from about N1tn to about N577bn; textile imports fell from about N190bn to N94bn, representing about 82 per cent decrease; while cement import fell from about N219bn to about N27bn. In total, these three sectors only contributed to more than N817bn to our foreign reserves because we are less dependent on import.

That one about Vegetable oil.....the figures cannot be right. I have a problem with Nigerian journalists when it comes to the use of figures. Larger figures always confuse them especially when you have to convert from dollar to Naira.
There is no way we would have spent 1 trillion Naira importing vegetable oil.

Using this Vegetable oil as an exaple to my problem with all these figures, lets ask some specific questions.
If vegetable oil imports reduced from 1`trillion to 577 billion, that means its either vegetable oil producers in Nigeria suddenly produced 423 billion Naira worth more of goods(where is the capacity) in the last year alone or the price of oil dropped internationally or Nigerians suddenly reduced their consumption of Vegetable oil by almost half. All three are wrong. My take is that the figure in question is 100 billion reduced to 57.7 billion Naira.

Journalists should be made to learn maths and proofreaders should always correct these false figures as they serve to misinform a gullible public.



All the same, there has been remarkable reduction in importation and that could be attributed to various factors which include more local manufacturing, reduced purchasing power/less liquidity or reduced appetite for consumerism. My take is that better manufacturing(Dangote Cement) and a little less easy liquidity are responsible.

This report is riddled with inconsistencies.

Total Nigerian budget for 2013 is N5tr. Total Nigerian GDP is about N43Tr. So how could vegetable oil imports alone have been N1Tr? What was the figure for both imports and local production before? N2Tr? That's almost 5% of the entire GDP for just vegetable oil alone. Doesn't make sense.

If imports actually fell by N4.2Tr, which is about 10% of our entire GDP, that would have a very profound impact on the value of the naira. Pressure on the money market for dollars would reduce and the naira would appreciate. That obviously has not been the trend in the past year. That's another big hole in this story.

And lastly, such significant increase in local production should have a significant impact on the unemployment situation in the country. Last time I heard, large swathes of people are still unemployed.

Like I have said before, deal with the power situation and get Ajaokuta working again. Setting those two things right would have a profound impact in altering the manufacturing and real sector trajectory in the country.

I think some progress have been made, but these figures don't pan out against the reality on ground.

taharqa: Nigeria Saves N4.2trn On Manufactured Goods Importation In 2012- Aganga

.

http://www.punchng.com/business/business-economy/nigeria-saves-n4-2tn-on-manufactured-goods-importation-aganga/

If d country can achieve this wit d present state of our power sector. I can only imagine what'l happen when d present reforms in dat critical sector is successfully concluded.

taharqa:

You are not very wise, @Ndu-Chuks. You just displayd an overwhelming jolt of IGNORANCE over basic Public Finance, and you did that most confidently.

What do you think Nigerians (through the Importers) use to buy these commodities from abroad? They use their azz, perhaps?? If you do not know that the Means of Exchange in International Trade is HARD CURRENCY, in this case, DOLLARS; and that these importers buy their goods from their International Suppliers with DOLLARS that they get from the Exchange (Money) Market, then you ought to humbly SHUT your mouth. You also probably do not know that it is the Central Bank that controls most of the Dollar sales on the Money Exchange, and that it is from the Central Bank's Component of the Foreign Reserves that the Central Bank mostly gets the Dollars it sells to buyers on the Exchange bi-weekly. If the Demand of Dollars by buyers (in this case, Importers) increases, the rate at which the Central Bank Component of the Reserves also gets depleted; and vice versa. This is one of the ways Foreign Reserves around the world increases or deceases. This is Public Finance 101.

Now, if the money spent on Importation decreases SHARPLY in a year (thank God you didnt attempt to dispute that)- meaning DOLLARS demanded by the importers to buy these goods decreases concomittedly- what do you think would happened to the Foreign Reserves??

CLUE: The Reserves increased from about $32billion to $43billion in 2012.

Dont ever make the MISTAKE of been a DUNCE on a thread and still quoting me. You would get BURNED, bad. You ought to know that by now.

So by your reasoning, importers spend the Foreign reserves without paying or reimbursement to the FGN.

You CANNOT save what you did not budget for! Since FGN did not budget for this importation, how then did they save the money / funds?

The right thing to say is that importation REDUCED, but definitely not saved from the FGN perspective.

You also claimed that dollar demand reduced, can you show where that was displayed? In 2012, the dollar rose from 158 to 160, so if there was less demand on the dollar, where commeth the increase in exchange rate? All this voodoo maths / claims that GEJ and his government keep dishing out, one day, it would all come unraveling.

Akainzo:

So by your reasoning, importers spend the Foreign reserves without paying or reimbursement to the FGN.

You CANNOT save what you did not budget for! Since FGN did not budget for this importation, how then did they save the money / funds?

The right thing to say is that importation REDUCED, but definitely not saved from the FGN perspective.

You also claimed that dollar demand reduced, can you show where that was displayed? In 2012, the dollar rose from 158 to 160, so if there was less demand on the dollar, where commeth the increase in exchange rate? All this voodoo maths / claims that GEJ and his government keep dishing out, one day, it would all come unraveling.

I will jsut be fast and respond to the 2 points raised as simply as I can:

- When the Minster said that 'Nigeria saved 4.2 trn in 2012', he didnt not mean that the FG saved that money somewhere. It was the Nigerian Economy that Saved it cos once Import decreases, the money that Importers (hence consumers) would have SENT OUT of the country (Economy) to buy those Goods would REMAIN within that Economy. Hence, the Country (Economy) saving that amount that would have gone out. It does not go into the Govt's Savings.
The only way the Govt can make some money from such situation (though not the same amount), apart from taxation, is the Relative Aggregation of the Foreign Reserves since the HARD CURRENCY (DOLLAR) which its Central Bank would have had to supply to the importers would have decreased.

- The Naira DID NOT depreciate last year from #158 to #160; in fact, the naira appreciated by a little more than 3%, making it the Most (or Second Most) Performing Currency in Africa in 2012 as well as one of the most performing in the world.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-28/nigeria-s-naira-strengthens-as-sanusi-pledges-price-stability.html

Plz, get your 'Facts' right.

It is refreshing to read posts by Akainzo, PapaBrowne, Neo-XVI, and others which point out obvious discrepancies with the report and Aganga's claims, without resorting to the customary servile flattery exhibited by GEJ goons and PDP jobbers, who know themselves.

ndu_chucks: It is refreshing to read posts by Akainzo, PapaBrowne, Neo-XVI, and others which point out obvious discrepancies with the report and Aganga's claims, without resorting to the customary servile flattery exhibited by GEJ goons and PDP jobbers, who know themselves.

I don't think Aganga is responsible for the wrong information. I think our journalist are the problem. You see this same problem anytime they have to convert large figures from dollars to Naira. Trust me, many people don't know that it is as simple as multiplying the dollar figure by the exhange rate and you'll get the Naira figure. I see people face this simple maths challenge every time. Sadly, journalists should know better but they dont.

Funny news.

I am a stake holder in the Nigerian vegetable oil industry and can tell us categorically that there is no decrease in vegetable oil importation.

No new vegetable oil processing company has come up in Nigeria within the last year. Importation is still high and is even threatining the few local players.

The imported vegetable oil is even cheaper than locally processed ones( reasons I cant explain as am on mobile now). So the news is deceptive.

As per textile, how come none of the textile companies in Kaduna are working? Their machines are now been sold by God knows who.

PS :I am not for nor against the goverment, just setting the record straight.

solopumpy227:

The traffic is low here because the GEJ-led Govt has deceived people not once, not twice but too many times and they now look out for only visible, touchable and verifiable "dividends of democracy".

Majority of us no longer trust FG reports and statements. Experience they say is the best teacher and in the time past when this Govt words/actions have been trusted we have been consistently dissapointed.

It is a good thing if TRUELY Nigeria is saving money but THE ULTIMATELY concern of a common man like me is how this translates into constant power supply, good and motorable Federal roads, potable water, quality education in my lifetime.

Well done on the analysis and it is so spot on. Nigerians have been fooled too many times by the FG and they really are just concerned with "how will this affect my daily life"

People like you who can correctly interpret news as it relates to the average Nigerian are very valuable.

The efforts of GEJ to salvage this country from economic drain is laudable and will surely stand the test of time. I was almost confused on the N4.2 trillion calculations but quickly realised that the reporting correspondent of the news had made some miscalculations as rightly pointed out by Papabrowne! Taharqa, more power to your elbows on your perspicuous analyses on the subject matter, I am impressed! Jonathan has done a lot of good to Nigerian economy no doubt

Good news but some things are not clear:
1. According to cbn annual report and wikipedia source, petroleum and petroleum products account for 95% of nigerian export in 2012. So how come this report said 63%.
2. This report said $30 billion was added to our foreign reserve last year alone. But nigeria's F.R hovered btw 40-45 billion dollars truout last year. So where is the extra $30 billion dollars?
3. If imports was reduced by almost half in 2012, then i expect a significant lesser pressure on our naira. Yet in 2012 the naira was exchanged for btw N155-160 per dollar.
In 2006-2008 when nigeria enjoyed a significant trade surplus the dollar was exchanged for N105 and the prices of imported goods also came down.
4. Unemployment remains 25% despite N4.2 trl worth of production within a year with manufacturing sector employing the lowest % of workforce

PapaBrowne:


I don't think Aganga is responsible for the wrong information. I think our journalist are the problem. You see this same problem anytime they have to convert large figures from dollars to Naira. Trust me, many people don't know that it is as simple as multiplying the dollar figure by the exhange rate and you'll get the Naira figure. I see people face this simple maths challenge every time. Sadly, journalists should know better but they dont.

Nigeria press wouldn't even correct their mistakes as been seen in western world.

Economics of deceit? If import has reduced so much, why is there still so much pressure on the Naira?

Has he factored in the increase in fuel importation that has triggered large payments of fuel subsidies?

If at all non-oil import has reduced, is this because of increase in local production? If yes, where are the stats on that?
Otherwise, the minister and his colleagues may just be pretending not to understand the subtle recession in the economy that has affected consumption. Nigerians have moved from 1-0-1 to 0-0-1 pattern of consumption because incomes have dropped, and naturally imports will drop in a predominantly import-based economy!

Is this why they pushed out a sound technocrat like Remi Babalola so that they can dole out half-baked figures like this?

No wonder, our ministers run away from public debates on issues - They seem to lack balanced reporting!

It appears we still have a major challenge with information gathering, reporting in Nigeria. How then do we manage our economy?

It is just so sad when top government officers role out figures that are just too suspect!

Interesting also that government administrations that do nothing quickly lay claim to merits that are solely private sector-driven!

val_dee: Funny news.

I am a stake holder in the Nigerian vegetable oil industry and can tell us categorically that there is no decrease in vegetable oil importation.

No new vegetable oil processing company has come up in Nigeria within the last year. Importation is still high and is even threatining the few local players.

The imported vegetable oil is even cheaper than locally processed ones( reasons I cant explain as am on mobile now). So the news is deceptive.

As per textile, how come none of the textile companies in Kaduna are working? Their machines are now been sold by God knows who.

PS :I am not for nor against the goverment, just setting the record straight.

Don't mind them, it could only mean d rest where smuggled in.

PapaBrowne:


I don't think Aganga is responsible for the wrong information. I think our journalist are the problem. You see this same problem anytime they have to convert large figures from dollars to Naira. Trust me, many people don't know that it is as simple as multiplying the dollar figure by the exhange rate and you'll get the Naira figure. I see people face this simple maths challenge every time. Sadly, journalists should know better but they dont.

My brother, there are quite a few holes in the said report and I agree with you that bad journalism may be responsible for many of them. The specific issue I had a problem with was a quote from Aganga himself. I suppose the journalists may have misquoted Aganga here as well, but I doubt that.

Good news if it`s true but i doubt it, in the Port we can still count number of export container that come in
everyday which is not up to 20 containers while import coming out is more than 5,000 containers a day

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