Re – Who Will Defeat Jonathan in 2015? By Joe Igbokwe


“If free and fair elections were held today (even though PDP will never permit free and fair elections) chances are that President Jonathan will emerge victorious. I say this with every sense of responsibility.” – Chido Onumah

My brother Chido Onumah is a gifted writer. Please give it to him. He is one of the vigorous advocates of the peoples’ cause, an activist, a thinker, author and a committed Nigerian. His Book: Time To Reclaim Nigeria is a popular idea whose time has come. Chido’s contribution to the project Nigeria cannot just be dismissed by any sensible person. However his latest article posted on various internet forums, with the title, 2015: WHO WILL DEFEAT JONATHAN? has just caught my attention and I need to take him up on the statements above.

I do not know what led Chido Onumah to believe that PDP led by anybody in Nigeria today can win a presidential election in a free and fair process. I tried without success to figure out why he made the statement above and believe you me I was left with no option than to write this rejoinder.

Now the question is this: On what basis is PDP going to win this election? Is it based on performance? What is the basis? How good have we fared in the past 14years to warrant Chido to make this egregious forecast? Are we getting better? If you still give PDP 50 years can it do anything better than what we have seen? Again, is endless crisis and unending strife that is afflicting PDP at present a recipe to winning election in Nigeria? Did it escape Chido Onumah that what is known as PDP is a house divided through the seam, with inchoate interests battling each other in a deadly struggle to win the upper hand and take control of the nation’s resources, as we are seeing at present?

What could have Chido Onumah to gloss over the critical importance of performance in winning elections or the issue of party unity. Did Chido miss all these or did he deliberately ignore them in the thinking that Nigerians don’t notice these imperatives in winning elections? The intellectual in Chido would have protested this negligence for these critical issues remain at the soul of democracy, founded on one-man-one-vote principle.

I would not have quarreled with Chido Onumah if he had posited that PDP will always win elections the way it professes to know best-through outright gerrymandering and rigging. This has been the tradition PDP has invested and reaped heavily from since 1999. No one would have quarreled if an intellectual, after a careful analysis of the present political realities posited that PDP will win every election by the way it knows best-purloining electoral results and writing its own results-as we have been experiencing since 1999 but there is a lot to quarrel with an intellectual who comes up with the strange permutation that a PDP that is knocking on death’s doors, with a well known history of incompetent governance and mind boggling corruption, will win a free and fair election. I guess that whoever believes this is deliberately taking liberty with the truth for reasons best known to him. One sees the biggest challenge facing the Nigerian position as stopping PDP’s notorious rigging machine and I believe the Nigerians opposition is working on this.

PDP has neither conducted nor won any free and fair election since 1999 and this remains the single greatest threat to democracy in Nigeria. Suffice it to say that any democracy founded on the type of horrendous manipulation the PDP has come to impose on the current democratic system in Nigeria has lost its essence and rivals any other undemocratic rule.

Now talking about APC, how can Chido tie the future of APC to one man, General Buhari(Rtd) in a nation of 150 million people? Is Chido saying that if anything happens to Buhari today, APC will not fill a presidential candidate in 2015? Don’t we have more than 50 presidential candidates who can do better than Buhari if we search for them? Can Chido with every sense of responsibility say that he has not seen the sacrifices being made by the progenitors of APC to provide an alternative to PDP? Is Chido saying that he has not seen the mines and bombs PDP mercenaries have been sowing on APC’s highway to reclaim Nigeria? Does Chido think that it is that easy for ACN, ANPP, CPC and APGA to come together in today’s Nigeria to challenge PDP? In a way I wanted to run away with the thinking that the write up sounds like a job for PDP but…… If we must sack PDP it is going to be a collective responsibility, and defeatism approach cannot help us. We just have to take a stand on where we are going and stick to it head on.

Those who think that keeping President Jonathan without performance is a way of addressing the minority question in Nigeria cannot get it. More money has gone to South South in the past 14 years more than the total of what went to South East, South West, and North East put together and yet there is not much to show in terms of development in the Niger Delta. Other Nigerians see this as a blackmail that cannot stand. We cannot continue to sacrifice the future of this country on the altar of mediocrity and comprehensive emptiness.

Now if the question is “Is the opposition ready to compete in 2015? Please take notice that the answer is yes and this is final. A lot of sacrifices are being made, lots and lots of structures are being put in place, lots and lots of engagements are going, interests are being taken into consideration, human and material resources are being deployed to bring about this change and all APC needs is support and encourage and not to be pulled down.

But most importantly, A football team that cannot score goals must be disbanded. If PDP cannot do something tangible in 14 years, it has to be defeated and sacked not minding the so-called national spread
Joe Igbokwe
Lagos

Now the question is this: On what basis is PDP going to win this election? Is it based on performance? What is the basis? How good have we fared in the past 14years to warrant Chido to make this egregious forecast?

maclatunji: Chido Onumah was only saying that Nigeria's population has a large chunk of unelightened and simple-minded people who will still vote for GEJ no matter how incompetent he is. Add that to PDP's rigging machinery and the PDP has a good chance of 'winning' in 2015.

The challenge for the APC is to engage, educate and empower poverty stricken, unelightened Nigerians on the need to vote for a better-by-far alternative to GEJ and the PDP.

daylae: Honestly,found no one yet. . . .

Afam4eva:
You got it spot on. This is what i highlighted in my previous post.

maclatunji: Chido Onumah was only saying that Nigeria's population has a large chunk of unelightened and simple-minded people who will still vote for GEJ no matter how incompetent he is. Add that to PDP's rigging machinery and the PDP has a good chance of 'winning' in 2015.

The challenge for the APC is to engage, educate and empower poverty stricken, unelightened Nigerians on the need to vote for a better-by-far alternative to GEJ and the PDP.

Now if the question is “Is the opposition ready to compete in 2015? Please take notice that the answer is yes and this is final. A lot of sacrifices are being made, lots and lots of structures are being put in place, lots and lots of engagements are going, interests are being taken into consideration, human and material resources are being deployed to bring about this change and all APC needs is support and encourage and not to be pulled down.

APC has managed to win more support for
themselves compared to what they had in 2011.
But whether that support is enough, is another
question. It's also worthy to note that the
source of APC's support is a predictable one.
So, it behoves on the leaders of APC to look
critically at their support base and do some
calculations prior to 2015 in order not to
experience the same thing they did in 2011.
Personally, i don't see APC winning the
presidential election based on what is on
ground except there's a mass exodus before
2015.

maclatunji: Chido Onumah was only saying that Nigeria's population has a large chunk of unelightened and simple-minded people who will still vote for GEJ no matter how incompetent he is. Add that to PDP's rigging machinery and the PDP has a good chance of 'winning' in 2015.

The challenge for the APC is to engage, educate and empower poverty stricken, unelightened Nigerians on the need to vote for a better-by-far alternative to GEJ and the PDP.

Garri the 1st: Nice write-up.

--- No name-calling

--- No mud-slinging

--- No uncouth expression

--- No cheap blackmail

Fair, objective and rational. Kudos to Joe Igbokwe for this great piece..

payless:


It comes down to APC nominating the right candidate. I don't think Buhari is acceptable to our youths. I don't see how Buhari wins South-west. He has the North in the bag already but his achilles heel is in the Southwestern states.

lateef4me: I'm battle ready to support APC provided Buhari will not clinch the presidential ticket . If he does,I will do every legally within my power to stop him cos I can't stand him .

Next after APC wins is to expose Tinubu,the crook for what he is cos he's part of the corrupt system we are talking about !

Ngwakwe: Why do Opinion Editors/Writers in Nigeria delighted in writing much and saying little.

The grand purpose of APC is to return Political Power to the North come 2015 and to stop Goodluck Jonathan from restructuring the Country towards Merit as against Quota System that has kept us underdeveloped.

It has become clearer by the day that APC's form of opposition is becoming anti-people and to restore status quo ante were the Northern Elites shared Oil blocs among themselves and the remainder to their frontmen.

Nigeria is undergoing restructuring and should be allowed to work for all its citizens.

The time of enjoying the spoils of war is over, let's move on as one united country or let's part peacefully.

mikeansy: PDP won 2011 election

eventhough an election between Jonathan and Buhari is conducted in heaven PDP will still win.

PDP can still win a fresh free and fair election in Nigeria if the opposition does not provide a viable alternative.

truth is the opposition parties in Nigeria are not behaving any differently from PDP. So the election will not be about parties per say but more about the individuals contesting.

But I thank God APC are starting on time to build structures because in the past the opposition has errornously thought they can just show up on the eve of election and defeat the incumbent just like that. It just dont work that way.

APC need to register their party, craft a vission for the country and get more State Governors, Councilors, LGA chairmen and legislators elected both at National level and State level. So that even if they do not win the next Presidential election they can at least have made progress and increased their foot-print arround the country.

It is in Nigeria's interest to have a viable alternative to the party in power at any point in time. This is how successful democracies made progress.

I am a PDP supporter and will remain one, but I will love to see the party loose power and go into opposition so that the party can be remade to be the party founding fathers like Alex Ekwueme dreamt of.

PDP has simply got too complacent. But the opposition must know that they will not achieve power on the platter of gold. You can not do things exactly the way PDP does at the moment and expect Nigerians to vote opposition just like that because PDP has failed.

The age old adage about replacing your MONKEY with a DOG comes to mind. You will not have made any difference because an animal that stoops is still in the neigborhood!

Gbawe:

If it is Buhari, he may be a better sell with a charismatic and popular performer as his VP running mate. We have to remember that a very popular VP can make the ticket popular and attractive to those who may be ordinarily lukewarm to voting Buhari.

Afam4eva:
The trugh is that ACn stands a better chance with Buhari as the presidential candidate than without him. Who has the kind of followership in the North like Buhari? No one comes close. Another truth is that APC picking the presidential candidate from the South especially the SW will be foolish because that will reduce the influence of the party.

mikeansy:

That followership is saturated and at peak level. Buhari will not get votes outside his stronghold. The only way Buhari wins an election is if he is not running against an incumbent and then he is the only candidate from North running against like 5 popular southerners who will split the Southern/Christain vote.

Even at that the election will require a run off because Buhari will never satisfy the requirement to win outright. Then once again Buhari will fail in the run off.

I think the best person with a chance to unsit Jonathan is actually Fashola. Reason is simple. The Hausa Fulani North by default just will not vote Jonathan. Fashola being s Muslim will carry North West and North East and as Yoruba will carry South West. Jonathan will have South South and South East sown up.

The battle ground will now be North Central.

Fashola being a more enlightened and articulate leader will wow young Nigerians and the middle-class in most of the civilised capitals in Nigeria like Lagos and Abuja.

There will also be pockets of opposition in the South against Jonathan. People who will compare Fashola and Jonathan side by side and see through the fact that one of them has a clear idea of what leadership is all about and then the other simply has no business running a LGA but has somehow found himself to the Presidency.

Trust me candidate Buhari is the best thing for the PDP. The election will be a walk in the park! Buhari is so easy to defeat!

lateef4me: Afam,

You are very wrong and 2015 will prove that . Buhari only had NW and NE in his pocket .No way will NC vote massively for Buhari . If APC makes the silly mistake of handlin the ticket to Buhari,then PDP don win be that ....

I bet PDP will even be glad cos it means less work for them to do !

payless:



I agree with you 92%. The problem with Buhari is winning the youth votes in the South-west region. Fashola is a better option because he appeals across the board. He can win the North-east, North-west and split the North-central. He will destroy Jonathan if stand side by side during election. Fashola looks more Presidential when stand side by side.

Afam4eva:

NC is the onply place where Jonathan beat Buhari in the North. But tell me any candidate who can get the kind of numbers that Buhari got in the NW and NE? He still remains the most popular candidate from the north.

Obiagelli:
You haven't found anyone who can match Gej's his track record or his performance OR you are going to usual tribal route

Afam4eva:
If Fashola wins the SW, can he win the North? I wonder how you guys reason. Through ACN's SW interest, APC is already assured of a relevant number in the South West to consolidate the numbers that Buuhari will bring from the North and the little number that Rochas will be able to get in the east.