SHIA REBELS CAPTURE SANA’A, CAPITAL OF YEMEN
How Yemen is 65% Sunni But 35% Shia Now Controls Govt.
(Fallout of 1,353Yr-Old Sunni Islam vs. Shia Islam Civil War)
-Attorney Patryk Utulu

A friend's fear-filled text message woke me up today. “Patryk, the Shias have seized Yemen as you predicted. Will they rule us like slaves as they rule Lebanon,” he asked? Prince Dawoud Ibn Rasulid is a Yemeni of the Rasulid Dynasty. An engineer, he moved back to Yemen 7 years ago to help his nation. For his safety I won’t repeat other things he said about Shia Muslims.

Yemen is a Middle East nation (65% Sunni and 35% Shia). Prince Dawoud was lamenting the recent capture of the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, by Shia rebels. The rebels routed Yemen's Sunni-dominated national army and forced the Sunni majority President, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, to sack his Sunni Prime Minister. The rebels will appoint a new (Shia) Prime Minister to run Yemen’s government.

BACKGROUND:
After 4 days of heavy fighting Houthi rebels captured the capital Sana'a Military Base and now control all government buildings including parliament. Residents woke up to see rebels armed with anti-aircraft guns, rocket-launchers, AK-47 rifles and curved tribal daggers setting up checkpoints all over the city. Prince Dawoud refuses to flee but says wealthy Yemini families are paying $thousands to smugglers to get family members out to the nearest country, Saudi Arabia.

For 30 years the world has known Yemen as a primitive society of 11 civil wars and the safest zone for al-Qaeda and 18 other terrorist groups. Yemen's global nickname is JIHADISTAN, a religious bazaar for global Jihadists.

BUT YEMEN HAD A RICH/DIFFERENT HISTORY:
YEMEN was SHEBA (yes, the biblical Sheba from where the Queen of Sheba visited Israel’s 3rd king, Solomon). Yemen was also part of Ethiopia before the Africa/Middle East land-bridge broke up. Yemen is home country of Osama Bin Laden's family before the Bin Laden family became wealthy and obtained Saudi citizenship. Yemen was first nation to peacefully practice ALL four “ONE-GOD” religions (Zoroastrianism, Judaism, Christianity and Islam) together. Yemen was so advanced the Prophet Muhammad (p.b.u.h) sent his cousin and son-in-law, Ali, to bring Islam to Yemenis. (yes, Ali ibn Abi Talib brought Islam to Yemen).

SO, WHAT HAPPENED TO YEMEN?
Yemen is like Congo. Congo is earth’s 6th richest nation with $30TRILLION of untapped raw minerals. The entire U.S. economy is worth $17TRILLION. From Belgium’s King Leopold to European mercenaries to U.S. vs. Russia (fighting over Congo’s uranium for nuclear weapons) Congo was destroyed because of its wealth. Yemen is the easiest gateway to Middle East, Africa and Asia.

Before Syria, Yemen was the center of the 1,353 year-old ISLAMIC CIVIL WAR between SHIA Islam and SUNNI Islam, for supremacy. The Leader of all Sunni nations, Saudi Arabia, is next door to Yemen. The Leader of all Shia nations, Iran, sees Yemen as special because Ali ibn Abi Talib (the symbol of Shia Islam brought Islam to Yemen). It was the assassination of Ali on January 31 in Year 661 (1,353 years ago) that led to the final and permanent break up of Islam into SUNNIS and SHIAS. Powerful Saudi Arabia regards Yemen as Sunni territory but of the 4 strongest Middle East Military Powers(Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, Syria) Iran/Hezbollah/Syria are ruled by SHIA ISLAM. Yemen is the contested trophy.

I hosted Prince Dawoud as he prepped to return to Yemen. Over dinner we discussed Nigeria’s Boko Haram, Yemen and Middle East. We agreed the then-Nigerian Govt was making a mistake in treating BH as a religious group instead of as a terrorist group to be immediately destroyed. He disagreed with my view that IRAN is determined to strategically win the intra-religious Sunni vs. Shia civil war.

WHY? HOW?
Iranians are Persians, not Arabs. Persians invented the game of Chess, a game that is not won on “numerical size" but on “strategic strength.” Middle East is the world’s biggest chess board. IRAN understands and accepts Sunni Muslims will ALWAYS OUTNUMBER Shia Muslims in people and number of nations under Islamic leadership. For 1,330 years the Sunnis relied on this number advantage. About 23 years ago Iran decided to make Shia Islam militarily superior to Sunnis

IRAN’s strategy is to win Sunni vs. Shia civil war by militarily encircling Saudi Arabia and squeezing Saudi Arabia's access to sending its greatest product – OIL – to world markets. First, Iran armed Syria’s SHIA-led Government of President al-Assad. Next, Iran formed/trained/armed Lebanon’s Hezbollah during Israel’s invasion and occupation of Lebanon. SHIA Hezbollah became heroes of the Arab world for being so good at fighting Israel that Hezbollah kept its weapons stockpile even after Israel left Lebanon. Hezbollah is 20X better armed than Lebanon’s national army and now has PERMANENT VETO over all Lebanese Government (that is, although Lebanon is officially a Sunni-led nation, no Lebanese Government can take a major decision without Hezbollah’s prior approval). Lebanon's Sunnis and Sunnis everywhere hate Shia Hezbollah’s power but the all-powerful Hezbollah remain Kings of Lebanon.

That's what Prince Dawoud's text-messaged to me that "...Shias have seized Yemen as you predicted. Will they rule us like slaves as they rule Lebanon?”

IRAN'S MILITARY CHESS GAME AGAINST SAUDI ARABIA
NORTH: With Shia-led government in Syria and Shia Hezbollah-dominated government in Lebanon, Iran controls Saudi Arabia’s NORTHERN land link to the Mediterranean Sea. EAST: Saudi Arabia’s entire EASTERN coast and oil fields face Iran’s Persian Gulf (the world’s busiest shipping lane). Iran’s Military has buried thousands of anti-ship explosives underwater in the Persian Gulf. Meaning that Saudi Arabia has to pay America $Billions/year just to sweep the Persian Gulf and keep it open and safe for its global oil transportation.

SOUTH: Saudi Arabia’s southern border is covered by Yemen and Oman. But although Oman is an Islamic nation they are IBADI Muslims (Ibadi Muslims are NOT Sunnis and NOT Shias). Oman is neutral on the Sunni vs. Shia rivalry and has a good relationship with Iran/S-Arabia/USA so neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran can use Omani territory adversely. Yemen was Saudi Arabia’s only remaining strategic southern land link to the Arabian Sea. So, Iran started systematically training (SHIA) Houthi rebels into a disciplined force to seize control of Yemen just as (SHIA) Hezbollah controls Lebanon. Chess-like discipline is a trademark of Iran. Notice that the rebels who captured the Yemeni capital, Sana’a have not harassed or raped civilians. Thus I predicted to Prince Dawoud 7yrs ago that to militarily encircle Saudi Arabia, Iran must aim to take over Yemen. And as a good Sunni Muslim and highly patriotic Yemeni my friend disagreed with me at that time. It was really tough to read the distress in his text message today.

AS IRAN HAS MILITARILY ENCIRCLED SAUDI ARABIA ON 3 SIDES WHAT MUST SAUDIS DO?
(1): Let’s be very clear. Saudi Arabia is still a strong and powerful nation. Saudi Secret Intelligence Service is good. Saudis are ruthlessly efficient if threatened, as ISIS terrorist group is just finding out for threatening to sack Medina city.
(2): There are signs that Saudi Arabia knew of Iran’s goal and took steps to keep open its WESTERN coast along the Red Sea, which separates the African nation of Egypt from Saudi Arabia. Red Sea is Saudi Arabia's only open water access and through Egypt’s Suez Canal to Mediterranean Sea. Iran donates lots of money to Sunni Muslim Brotherhood so when the MB won 50% of seats in Egypt's 2011–12 parliamentary elections, and brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, won June 2012 presidential election, Saudi Arabia encouraged Egypt’s military to overthrow MB Government. Egypt's General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi overthrew MB Govt of President Morsi, killed/jailed thousands of MB members, promoted himself to Field Marshall and became President of Egypt. Now, Saudi Arabia gives Egypt $Billions monthly to keep Egypt's economy from bankruptcy.

Though Islam broke up into Sunni Islam and Shia Islam 1,353 years ago the Sunni vs. Shia civil war is only just beginning. For nearly 14 centuries Sunnis have had numerical advantage and dominance so some Sunnis are slow to really realizing the military rise of Iran and Shia Islam. Some powerful Sunnis are in denial and angrily condemning fellow Sunnis who advise that it is time to find common grounds to seriously reduce Sunnis versus Shia tensions. So, yes, the Saudis can be ruthlessly effective but for now, Iran has the strategic upper hand.

Like a champion chess player Iran plays for Middle East supremacy by building a multi-dimensional strategy. Iranian power is highly diversified:
(1): Iran builds up its own military power. Iran's sea-based, land-based, air and mobile-delivery systems can target missiles on all the nations of the Middle East and some nations of Europe. Iranian Military weapons are domestically built.
(2): Iran is almost a nuclear nation (enriching fissile materials in Bushehr, Natanz, Arak and 14 other open/secret nuclear sites according to the CIA
(3): Iranian Air Defenses are highly sophisticated. It is one of the reasons Israel has not tried to bomb Iran's nuclear weapon sites. An attack may not succeed.
(4): Iran builds up Shia Military Allies in Syria/Iraq/Hezbollah and now, Yemen
(5): Iran supports Sunni Military Allies (Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, Afghan and Pakistani governments) regardless of Sunni vs. Shia differences
(4): Iran acts like a superpower by forming relationships with Brazil, Russia, Venezuela, Kazakhstan and non-Middle East major oil producers.

More importantly, Iran trades with China but also cooperates with USA and Europe when interests are NOT in conflict e.g. Iran gave approval for Iran-funded Shia Militias of Iraq to cooperate with USA in the war against ISIS.

Strategic Flexibility is a lesson for 54-year old Nigeria: RELIGION MUST NEVER BE ALLOWED TO BECOME AN IMPEDIMENT TO HIGHER NATIONAL INTEREST!!!!

Patryk A. Utulu is a U.S.-based attorney and Strategic Communications Specialist
Global Defense Analyst and Global Events Commentator
Executive Vice President, Nigerian Diaspora-North America
Executive Director, The Center for Community Empowerment and Lifeskills, Inc.
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