Justcash:


My point is that, no Nigerian can lead Nigeria for life. If it was possible, people like OBJ would still be in power now.

I am sorry, but this is not the place to discuss about that. It an issue that can be left for another thread.

Tokunbohkinibig:
I Know this point I am about to emphasise on has been over flogged by different ops here but let me repeat it again for the last time. If MEND decides to go into War with Nigeria state, Niger delta will never be the same again i swear down. I can bet it with anybody here that the militants ll regret their action after the whole drama has ended. The only reason why they succeeded in the past was this marginalisation factor but now that they ve tasted presidency and amnesty, they would be crushed with no mercy. It ll be a full fall out war on militants considering the mood of hausa/Fulanis(60% of our armies) right now. The way these merciless hausa/Fulanis army would ruthlessly wreck havoc on their land ll be unprecedented.

I am only citing Chad and Civil war as a case study here, no intention to tribalise this tread. Do you think Igbos don't have access to the same Creek during the civil war? They did but it was a full war so there was no hidden place. Can these illiterates Dokubo and his likes be more intelligent and smart than Ojukwu who was trained in one of the best military schools in the world? Can militant mobilise as much people as Ojukwu did? Can they have the same support Ojukwu enjoyed with his kinsmen? I guess the answer to all these questions are No(s) and this ll tell you how much they would be pounded by Nigerian army.

Listen, both US and Britain ll always choose Nigeria over any militants cos of their stakes in Nigeria and these stakes have been in existences for years. South Sudan has oil but millions of them have been killed over years before........

Asari and his likes' properties would be seized either here in Nigeria or Benin Republic. And trust me, life ll be unbearable for them. It's obvious to entire world now that these guys only care about their pockets not the Niger deltans unlike before when we all believed that they are fighting for developments in their region.

Asoozy:
Sorry but you don't get to dictate what will and wouldn't be discussed in so far the bone of contention is with regard to the possibility of disintegration of the entity then by all means, we must have a balanced discussion and the country's antecedents fully analysed.

Don't set the parameters for this discussion. You are neither a moderator nor is this the national conference where you assume the position of Jonathan and tell us referendum is off the table.

Justcash:


Look at the statements in bold and see how much you contradicted yourself. You need to calm down and focus on the topic. I respect your freedom to choose what you want in all ramification. You must respect mine too.

Asoozy:
By saying all information be disseminated means that no barriers must be erected to subvert a balanced debate.the opposite is what you are trying to do. You want readers and contributors to stay in your streamlined argument in the ruse to get them to buy your warped logic. Unfortunately for you not all are gullible and try as you have, your trickery is being unveiled.

And you will do well not to patronise me again, mister.

Thank you!

Tokunbohkinibig:
@@Chukwudi44 and Justcash, let's try to be realistic when it comes to war, there is nothing like Civilian in a war to be honest. Forget about the world politics and propaganda when it suits them. Civilian will always and continue to be used as fighting tools in the hands of their rulers. Let's quickly take a look at second world war; pearl harbour to be precise. Japanese army attacked pearl harbour not U.S mainland but what was U.S response to this attack? I guess your answer is as good as mine - Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Nagasaki was estimated to have about 263,000 people just before it was nuked and these are civilians not soldiers. The same thing repeated itself in Hiroshima with total population of 250,000 civilians.

Civilians in Niger delta/any region ll continue to bear the brunt of insurgency in their respective regions just like what is obtainable in the North east at moment and that has been happening for the past 5yrs.

Frankly speaking, without civilians' support, MEND can't never wage a war against Nigeria state and succeed. No group of people would be able to wage a war against any government without help from their host community. Realistically, It ll be xtremely difficult for OPC to war in ABA or anywhere in South east cos Igbos populace would easily identify them and deal with them mercilessly cos OPC is not fighting for their causes. The same fate would befall Massob in South west too if Massob try anything in South west too; that is power of civilians when they are not involved in anything.

Justcash:


I reiterate that my aim here is not to convince you or make you to change your mind about voting for who you don't want. I just think that drifting away from the topic is not ideal. I expect that you'll respect and understand my intention to stay within the boundaries of the current discussion.

wanimo:
pls u seem to 4get that the current majority in the opposition that u support were the same poeple who misruled Nigeria in the PDP, only to run to a new platform to start calling names. Whether u wear monkey coat or agbada or tracksuits, monkey na monkey. Some months back some people were screaming Rribadu/APC, where is Ribadu 2day? We the younger generation that form the bulk of the electorate should be wise to vote individuals and never party.

Omimah:

I fear for what would be of the Niger Delta if any group tries to disturb the government of Buhari.

ISpiksDaTroof:
That's the trick. If GEJ "wins" in 2015, he will ask for an extension when his term is almost over in 2019, then before you know it GEJ is Nigeria's first life President. That has been the aim from day one.

rasojie:
when it comes to having credible personalities, what can you take out of the ruling PDP?

Rexxie:

what you are trying to analyse is way far above you. There is a whole lot of difference between waging a war and fighting terrorists. The pearl harbor and nagasaki events took place during world war2. Soldiers are not invicible but terrorist and insurgents basically are and the bh and n.deltans militants fall into the category of the latter. So please,dont hope or wish for a situation where nigeria will have to,again, put up with n.deltan militants who have learnt the art of war and have yet to employ the use of suicide bombers and the likes or a resurgent bh insurgents and terrorists who would definitely not be making the costly mistake,again,of declaring its territory/caliphate or hoisting its flag but who will be resorting to its horrible use of suicide missions and bombings, simply because you have a strong nigerian army. The fight against militant,insurgents or terrorists has got nothing to do with convectional methods of war as far as they are concerned, but it aint so with the military, unless they are ready to face war crimes tribunals...if someway,somehow buhari finds his arsse at the villa,based on his past expressions, he wont be giving much damn'bout the n.delta and their legitimate agitation and definitely things gonna apart real fast and not augur well..
To be continued.
In the meantime,its...
#gej till '19

LadyExcellency:



The Buhari's regime according to African Human Right Records curtailed press freedom and imposed a blanket ban on political activities, which was later extended to include a ban on debates on the political future of the country.

Better vote GEJ and still have the freedom to criticise him than experiment on Buhari

Rexxie:

what you are trying to analyse is way far above you. There is a whole lot of difference between waging a war and fighting terrorists. The pearl harbor and nagasaki events took place during world war2. Soldiers are not invicible but terrorist and insurgents basically are and the bh and n.deltans militants fall into the category of the latter. So please,dont hope or wish for a situation where nigeria will have to,again, put up with n.deltan militants who have learnt the art of war and have yet to employ the use of suicide bombers and the likes or a resurgent bh insurgents and terrorists who would definitely not be making the costly mistake,again,of declaring its territory/caliphate or hoisting its flag but who will be resorting to its horrible use of suicide missions and bombings, simply because you have a strong nigerian army. The fight against militant,insurgents or terrorists has got nothing to do with convectional methods of war as far as they are concerned, but it aint so with the military, unless they are ready to face war crimes tribunals...if someway,somehow buhari finds his arsse at the villa,based on his past expressions, he wont be giving much damn'bout the n.delta and their legitimate agitation and definitely things gonna apart real fast and not augur well..
To be continued.
In the meantime,its...
#gej till '19

Justcash:


I like your profound optimism, but I really am not affiliated to any political position in 2015. However, as a political and economic analyst with a strong understanding of the dynamics in Nigerian politics, I can assure you that GEJ's liberal political approach (commendable) has erased the power of incumbency in the political calculations of 2015 general elections.

For your information, there are also consequences (mild) if the North fails to grab power in 2015. It is a political stalemate.

Your bat description is unnecessary.

EldaTimba:
I can't but agree with the op. Should GEJ lose, US prediction will come to pass. Remember GEJ still have months after he probably losses. He will sigh phone funds to MEND and they will buy sophisticated arms which they will successfully use to crumble the economy.

Last bullet:
Nigeria is one because of oil. If oil is gone,nigeria is gone.

Justcash:


I respect your point of view, however you seem to overlook certain factors.
First, Buhari is currently being canvassed by mainly Core Northern and Western Nigerians. The East, South and Mid-belt are all tilted towards GEJ. This is based on the collective suspicion of a "born-to-rule" agitation by the North, which, unfortunately, Buhari is seen to represent. The suspicion over the North's seeming support of Boko Haram as a means of grabbing power by all means is not helping matters. The sentiment of "if Boko Haram succeeds for them, then MEND will rise for us" is very much real. If you don't know, know it now.

Secondly, Niger-deltans currently feel that there is a gang-up by the North and West against their right to complete their 8 years cycle in the presidency. If you are not aware, then I am telling you now. They feel that they are being trampled upon because they are seen as a minority group, and that all the criticisms against GEJ are based on ethno-religious concerns. Infact, GEJ is seen as having contributed to the development of Nigeria more than most of the leaders before him.

Thirdly, GEJ is backed by the EAST (Igbos) and the Mid-Belt along with the South-South. To say that Buhari will be voted for overwhelmingly to the extent that foul play will not be perceived is false. Buhari, just like GEJ, cannot win clearly in an election. Stories of manipulations in the North and all that will come up. That alone is enough to drive up sentiments for political agitation. That is where resistance to change will emerge.

Finally, MEND can never be viewed as a criminal organization, as long as they are fighting for a better political calculation for their region. It is also very easy for them to win the sympathy of their people. We all know that Buhari and co will visit any uprising with untold military show of dominance, where innocent lives and villages will be destroyed. That is enough to win sympathy over to MEND. FYI, a new MEND will be 50 times more deadly than the one you saw before. The reasons are obvious; More willing youths to be used, politically backed by PDP politicians, more money to use for purchasing weapons, more skilled fighters e.g. ex-militants that can now fly jets etc.

Like I said, I respect your point of view. However, the political situation is more complex than you can ever imagine.

tonytony208:


america has stopped importing fuel from Nigeria. So, they won't even give the military a pin to aid the fight against MEND. They would rather aid MEND and make secret deals with them to keep the oil coming at cheaper rate.

LadyExcellency:



The Buhari's regime according to African Human Right Records curtailed press freedom and imposed a blanket ban on political activities, which was later extended to include a ban on debates on the political future of the country.

Better vote GEJ and still have the freedom to criticise him than experiment on Buhari

ISpiksDaTroof:
The same Niger Delta militants that are now used to flying around in Private Jets, sailing in Yachts, driving Benzes, living in Mansions and studying abroad are who you think will go back into the creeks? ROFLMAO the militants are spoiled and lazy now. Asari cries and screams every two seconds; that's the action of a man that's definitely unwilling to go through any more pain or discomfort, to talk less of dying.

And as for your last paragraph, the job of any right thinking and well meaning President will crush any strife within its territory and create a level playing field for all. So, if a Buhari Govt decides to crush Boko Haram or MEND, I really don't see anything wrong with that

Adminisher:


You must be smoking something really bad to have posted this trash. You have just ridiculed our democracy with this trash. So MEND will be allowed to subvert the free expression of our fundamental human right of voting in an elected government. This is a very weak argument to compel us to support GEJ. Maybe you guys already know now that he will lose the popular vote.The Niger Delta is part of Nigeria and the most dependent one at that. The naval blockade and air strikes on MEND installations will affect the region and cause untold hardship on the ND peoples. Starvation will be used as a weapon of war, disease and criminality will ensue. Women and Children will bear the full brunt. Civil society will cease to function. I don't think you have thought about the effects of what you are suggesting properly. This idiotic argument can also be extended to even 2019 as well and you are more or less saying GEJ may as well do ten terms in office. Please stop smoking bad stuff and reason properly.

ODIMEGWU2:

let me just say that currently , the every tribe is represented in the military. you think South Easterner or South Southerner in the Army will Join in the destruction of his region . okay o

atlwireles:
There will not be any change in government come 2015. I am looking to 2019, after Jonathan leaves, the Niger Delta is patiently tolerating Jonathan to finish his personal ambition of being President of Nigeria.

When he leaves office, many of you will understand the fury in the Niger Delta . So keep lying through your teeth.

ISpiksDaTroof:
So, basically, even if GEJ rules till 2019, MEND will still disrupt Nigeria? You clearly have no idea how the tribes feel about one another in your country.