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Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? - Romance (3) - Nairaland

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Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by mya1: 9:37am On Oct 21, 2014
emmyrichie:
- No matter how perfectly a wound heals, the scare will still remain...

Not exactly! Depends on the type of skin involved and level of injury , there are wounds that leave no scar.

emmyrichie:
- You can take a person off the street, but you can take the street off em.
That again is subjective, dependent on the type and duration of grooming.

emmyrichie:
- A bleached skin will always return to its original state even worse than it were.
Not true if you have money to constantly maintain it., you'd never believe some people were dark skinned until shown their Surulere pics

emmyrichie:
- An already dried fish can't be straightened out, else it scatters.
Submerge in hot water and see wonders.. Loool

emmyrichie:
- A spoilt clock is always correct twice daily.
Depends on the level of spoilage . More so you'd need another clock to confirm the "correctness" of the spoilt clock

emmyrichie:
- One can't expect to see a storey building on a foundation that's carved out for a bungalow.

You never jam, Lol.. Strike a deal with shady builders and see the result.
emmyrichie:
Oh! Yes! I believe. Once a soldier, always a soldier.
Lie Jare! Of what use is a solder that can't go to war. Once you relinquish your post, you seize being it..



Life is not always black and white, there are shades of grey. The saying "change is constant" is itself subjective. Depends on what or who's involved.

@topic,it depends.

5 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by Nobody: 10:04am On Oct 21, 2014
It seems those who know nothing about behaviour are d ones giving the excuse of change. They say change is constant, bt no one will make that change for u, n its nt d change dat will change u, its u dat will change urself. Prior behaviour is a predictor of future behaviour. If u known to have history of sleeping around with guys for the past 3 years, jst know that that factor will be constant for the next couple of years. If u have history of hitting a lady for some years now, it will determine how u will treat the next lady. The only time change will come into play is when u urself observe that change and u don't expect it to come at the snap of a finger. Just lyk d person battling with alcohol addiction expects to stop drinking at d blink of an eye, it wont happen.

2 Likes

Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by Nobody: 10:12am On Oct 21, 2014
No, because Change happens, but...
Almost every Error you Make is a seed, which may germinate and locate the Person far Later in Life.

You find out dat pastors who were rough during their youth age may have a bad child and people will be saying 'And he is a Pastor's son' not knowing dat d pastor was like dat be4 he repented.
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by burningspear(m): 10:22am On Oct 21, 2014
englishmart:
No. But I believe future behaviours are a great predictor of prior behaviour. cheesy

@englishmart, your question incites some stream of thoughts and spurs interesting study. The impact of the past behaviour on the present behaviour has been a subject of discussion among leadership scholars, forensic psychologists, security and risk management experts. For instance, while Franklin (2013) sees “Past as prelude. So neat, so clean. So full of certitude. Like a fortune cookie Confucianism”, others (Luongo, 2008; Weitzenkorn, 2011) observe that history of one’s life, what people have done in the past, and currently doing, is the ideal basis for predicting what they will do in the future. Johnstone (2003) concurs that “when it comes to human beings, the best predictor of future behaviour is the past behaviour”. However, Johnstone somewhat made a little shift from his earlier views when he stated, in his later work, that “For the best predictor human behaviour isn’t always accurate” (Johnstone, 2005). Pellegrini (2014) opines that there is no perfect way to forecast life outcomes for people.

Though many studies on human behaviours agree that past behaviour is a useful marker for future behaviour. However, Franklin (2013) cautions that such is only under certain specific conditions:
1. High-frequency, habitual behaviors are more predictive than infrequent behaviors.
2. Predictions work best over short time intervals.
3. The anticipated situation must be essentially the same as the past situation that activated the behavior.
4. The behavior must not have been extinguished by corrective or negative feedback.
5. The person must remain essentially unchanged.
6. The person must be fairly consistent in his or her behaviors.

We have seen and heard the cases of bad people who later became transformed from inside out for good.
The biblical Zacchaeus, tax fraudster, who became a changed man and made restitution (Luke, 19:1-10);
Mary Magdalene, who turned the mass of her crimes (John 8:1-11; Luke 8:2; Mark 16:19) to virtues and served God till the very end (Matthew 28:1–8; Mark 16:9–10; Luke 24:10; John 20:18);
Former hacker Kevin Mitnick was on the FBI's Most Wanted list before launching his own security firm;
Georgia Durante was a getaway driver for the Mafia before starting a stunt-driving company;
Frank William Abagnale was a world-famous con man by age 21. Now he runs a fraud consulting company (Abagnale & Nethanson, 2002);
Kweisi Mfume had several stints in jail before becoming a Congressman and serving as president of the NAACP;
Junior Johnson went to jail for smuggling alcohol before becoming a NASCAR driver;
Former Nixon aide Charles Colson spent a year in federal prison for his involvement in the Watergate scandal and then started Prison Fellowship;
Larry Jay Levine was sentenced to 10 years in prison and later used his experience to start his company, 'Wall Street Prison Consultants';
Judge Greg Mathis was in a gang and served time before launching his own TV show;
Actor Danny Trejo spent 12 years robbing stores, but now he only plays 'the bad guy' in movies;
Stephen Richards spent nine years in prison for selling marijuana before becoming a professor of criminal justice;
Quarterback Michael Vick went to prison for 18 months for running a dog-fighting ring before getting signed by the Eagles in 2009.
There are many more cases.

Milgram (1963 & 1974) and Zimbardo (2007) studies have also shown how good people turn evil. Grant (2013) study tries to show the very point at which people tend to turn evil or good.

In my views therefore, if the past is the best predictor of future behaviour, then there is no place for the society or environment or education or even conscience in behavioural shaping of the individual. And as such we have no hope of Paradise!
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by Orikinla(m): 10:37am On Oct 21, 2014
YES.
A sign of things to come.

1 Like

Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by deuce7(m): 11:29am On Oct 21, 2014
Prior behavior alone can't be used to determine future behavioral patterns. Change is very constant. People change either positively or negatively.
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by englishmart(m): 11:46am On Oct 21, 2014
burningspear:


@englishmart, your question incites some stream of thoughts and spurs interesting study. The impact of the past behaviour on the present behaviour has been a subject of discussion among leadership scholars, forensic psychologists, security and risk management experts. For instance, while Franklin (2013) sees “Past as prelude. So neat, so clean. So full of certitude. Like a fortune cookie Confucianism”, others (Luongo, 2008; Weitzenkorn, 2011) observe that history of one’s life, what people have done in the past, and currently doing, is the ideal basis for predicting what they will do in the future. Johnstone (2003) concurs that “when it comes to human beings, the best predictor of future behaviour is the past behaviour”. However, Johnstone somewhat made a little shift from his earlier views when he stated, in his later work, that “For the best predictor human behaviour isn’t always accurate” (Johnstone, 2005). Pellegrini (2014) opines that there is no perfect way to forecast life outcomes for people.

Though many studies on human behaviours agree that past behaviour is a useful marker for future behaviour. However, Franklin (2013) cautions that such is only under certain specific conditions:
1. High-frequency, habitual behaviors are more predictive than infrequent behaviors.
2. Predictions work best over short time intervals.
3. The anticipated situation must be essentially the same as the past situation that activated the behavior.
4. The behavior must not have been extinguished by corrective or negative feedback.
5. The person must remain essentially unchanged.
6. The person must be fairly consistent in his or her behaviors.

We have seen and heard the cases of bad people who later became transformed from inside out for good.
The biblical Zacchaeus, tax fraudster, who became a changed man and made restitution (Luke, 19:1-10);
Mary Magdalene, who turned the mass of her crimes (John 8:1-11; Luke 8:2; Mark 16:19) to virtues and served God till the very end (Matthew 28:1–8; Mark 16:9–10; Luke 24:10; John 20:18);
Former hacker Kevin Mitnick was on the FBI's Most Wanted list before launching his own security firm;
Georgia Durante was a getaway driver for the Mafia before starting a stunt-driving company;
Frank William Abagnale was a world-famous con man by age 21. Now he runs a fraud consulting company (Abagnale & Nethanson, 2002);
Kweisi Mfume had several stints in jail before becoming a Congressman and serving as president of the NAACP;
Junior Johnson went to jail for smuggling alcohol before becoming a NASCAR driver;
Former Nixon aide Charles Colson spent a year in federal prison for his involvement in the Watergate scandal and then started Prison Fellowship;
Larry Jay Levine was sentenced to 10 years in prison and later used his experience to start his company, 'Wall Street Prison Consultants';
Judge Greg Mathis was in a gang and served time before launching his own TV show;
Actor Danny Trejo spent 12 years robbing stores, but now he only plays 'the bad guy' in movies;
Stephen Richards spent nine years in prison for selling marijuana before becoming a professor of criminal justice;
Quarterback Michael Vick went to prison for 18 months for running a dog-fighting ring before getting signed by the Eagles in 2009.
There are many more in this list

Milgram (1963 & 1974) and Zimbardo (2007) studies have also shown how good people turn evil. Grant (2013) study appears to show the very point at which people tend to turn evil or good.

In my views therefore, if the past is the best predictor of future behaviour, then there is no place of the society or environment or education or even conscience in behavioural shaping of the individual. And as such we have no hope of Paradise!

you don't expect me to read all of those

1 Like

Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by destante(f): 11:52am On Oct 21, 2014
ehn na, you can use prior behaviour to "predict" future ones. Prediction-that is where it ends. because you can be wrong.
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by darne(m): 12:08pm On Oct 21, 2014
Once beaten twice shy


When I trusted you in first place and you betrayed my trust, I'll never try it again by getting hurt the second time,.... SO Yes and NO .But Yes shall come first anyday angry angry

#Psychology
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by burningspear(m): 1:18pm On Oct 21, 2014
englishmart:
you don't expect me to read all of those

grin Great topic you put up there however.
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by Abbott(m): 2:17pm On Oct 21, 2014
zboyd:
Do you believe that past behavior is a predictor of future behavior?

My opinion: No.

Elaborating a bit, in law, there is what is known as Similar Facts Evidence which essentially means that proof of facts of past misconduct is admissible as evidence to hold a person responsible for a present misconduct. That is the way the world works. That is why we convicted prisoners when out of prison are called ex-cons, it is why people are known by their evil, ugly and dirty past and not what they are presently even if it is a complete opposite of what they used to be.

This is the theme of the classic, Les Miserables by Victor Hugo.

Our environment always sees us from the eyes of our past, especially where it is one that is shameful, ugly, dirty or evil. I should also add, eagerly too, when God sees us, he does not see our ugly/shameful past rather, he sees us for what he has truly created us to be.
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by jahem: 2:40pm On Oct 21, 2014
Change they say is the only constant in life buh it comes in two i.e positive&nagetive.
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by burningspear(m): 3:09pm On Oct 21, 2014
Abbott:


My opinion: No.

Elaborating a bit, in law, there is what is known as Similar Facts Evidence which essentially means that proof of facts of past misconduct is admissible as evidence to hold a person responsible for a present misconduct. That is the way the world works. That is why we convicted prisoners when out of prison are called ex-cons, it is why people are known by their evil, ugly and dirty past and not what they are presently even if it is a complete opposite of what they used to be.

This is the theme of the classic, Les Miserables by Victor Hugo.

Our environment always sees us from the eyes of our past, especially where it is one that is shameful, ugly, dirty or evil. I should also add, eagerly too, when God sees us, he does not see our ugly/shameful past rather, he sees us for what he has truly created us to be.

Thank you for the reminder and point made, Abbott. 'Les Miserables' tried to examine the nature of law and grace. Jean Valjean, an ex-convict, and later a repeat offender, was haunted by that stigma, especially by die hard Inspector Javert, whose mission was to ensure Valjean never walked away from his past no matter how hard his try. But Valjean finished strong on the good side - by grace. The turning point was Bishop Myriel’s exceptional character and forgiveness. That was what changed Valjean from bad to the very good and honest man he later became! I keep wondering what man was Bishop Myriel. I can never forget that line and the learning from it!

Drawing from 'Les Miserables', prior behavior cannot be a good marker or predictor of future Behavior.

1 Like

Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by babystathopoulos: 3:09pm On Oct 21, 2014
Yes yes yes
prior behavior account for about 90% of expected future behavior. i have read and study about different cases of killers, rapist, molesters, criminals. most of them have trend of similar bahavior in their past and some as a result of their family background, upbringing and friends. ofcourse there are few exceptional cases where people really change completely from their past, but they very few to be significant

people should not be deceive that the 'past is the past' it doesn't matter anymore, lies from satan, it does matter a whole lot in many cases

a guy/girl who has history of beating his/her younger ones at any little provocation would most likely do so or worst to his/her future partner
a guy/girl who double dates while single who mostly likely cheat after marriage
a guy/girl who stingy as a child would likely grow to be a greedy mofo and so on and on...

yeah change they say is the only thing that is constant but behavioral personality is nearly constant too
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by 5minsmadness: 4:01pm On Oct 21, 2014
Yes
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by Akinsnaira: 4:08pm On Oct 21, 2014
Let me give you a little & simple trick to know if you can judge someone correctly in future based on his/her present behaviour:

If the person is a learning type, don't ever judge him in future based on his present, that type of person is always amenable to change at any slight opportunity for development, they are easily bored by doing the same thing/being the same person for an extended period of time. They want to experience new things at every turn - as they say, experience is the best teacher - so they change in the process. When someone looks back at his yesterday and laughs at some of the things he did and thought was childish, that person is likely to be in this category.

If the person is a conservative type, unlike the first category these people are immutable, they idolize a set of principles at a tender age based on their environment and make them their standards. These people are unreasonably primitive to say the least, and intolerant to any different ideology. They believe life is cast in stone as they always want to follow the status quo. These people will only change when they learn their lesson in a hard way. When someone is too opinionated with you, that person is likely to be in this category

My little submission

1 Like

Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by Nobody: 4:09pm On Oct 21, 2014
lawrenceunaa:
ya cos u can't keep drinking one bottle
u would increase with time grin
*smiles*like have increase with time
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by Otamayomi1(f): 5:11pm On Oct 21, 2014
Dominiquez:
I can easily predict what you will do tomorrow by your approach to things and your attitude to people around you.


Is like dating a hot tempered lady today and believing that she will be a cool type when we get married.

That's not possible.
[color=#990000][/color]
it is possible dear. If she experiences breakup consecutively due 2 her atitude, haba, nobody wil need 2 tel her b4 she changes or seeks deliverance.
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by 2legit2qwt: 5:31pm On Oct 21, 2014
Ilekere:
My lil brother, you're a christain. Stop calling hoes hoes. Call them, free givers.



*when I saw maclatunji's post, I got scared thinkingthat I had ventured into the religion section* whewww! I don't want no damn Christian/Muslim bullshiat on my profile tongue




Yo wad up?
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by sekzy99(m): 8:01pm On Oct 21, 2014
i need a job onboard a ship, studied marine engineering. Have my stcw 95,medical n discharge book ready. Momlilyseyi@gmail.com or 08023373302Thanks
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by deniyor: 2:32am On Oct 22, 2014
Yes.
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by Abbott(m): 3:21am On Oct 22, 2014
burningspear:


Thank you for the reminder and point made, Abbott. 'Les Miserables' tried to examine the nature of law and grace. Jean Valjean, an ex-convict, and later a repeat offender, was haunted by that stigma, especially by die hard Inspector Javert, whose mission was to ensure Valjean never walked away from his past no matter how hard his try. But Valjean finished strong on the good side - by grace. The turning point was Bishop Myriel’s exceptional character and forgiveness. That was what changed Valjean from bad to the very good and honest man he later became! I keep wondering what man was Bishop Myriel. I can never forget that line and the learning from it!

Drawing from 'Les Miserables', prior behavior cannot be a good marker or predictor of future Behavior.

In explaining his exceptional character, I would say that wasn't a natural/inherent nature in man. Man, 99.9%, and justifiably too, would have attacked him or at the very least, exposed him and handed him over to "law". Going forward, the fact of his priesthood and the godly nature cultivated over the course of time should explain sufficiently, I think, this gracious gesture.

1 Like

Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by burningspear(m): 8:40am On Oct 22, 2014
Abbott:


In explaining his exceptional character, I would say that wasn't a natural/inherent nature in man. Man, 99.9%, and justifiably too, would have attacked a their or at the very least, exposed him and handed him over to "law". Going forward, the fact of his priesthood and the godly nature cultivated over the course of time should explain sufficiently, I think, this gracious gesture.

You're my bro, friend and teacher.
You've contributed interestingly to this tread. Especially reminding us the importance of making positive contributions in each other's life, just like Bishop Myriel.

Learning: Lift up your brother! Irrespective of his character failings, do not let him down!! Show him good!!!
Re: Is Prior Behavior Is A Good Predictor Of Future Behavior? by efficiencie(m): 7:05am On Oct 23, 2014
well well this brings to mind dynamic modelling...The answer would be yes, if the object under consideration is subject to ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS. That is, if the object whose behavior is modelled exhibits a behavior at a given time that is based on information from the past...The answer would be no, if RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS hold. That is if the object behaves at a given time in a manner based on information from the future...

...and since it requires greater ingenuity to work with the future than the past, objects whose behavior are explained via adaptive expectations are considered too 'daft' to realize the utility of futuristic information or too 'poor' to afford it...

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