By Femi Aribisala
The 2015 election will likely be, to all intents and
purposes, a contest between two PDP politicians.
When Muhammadu Buhari ran for president in 2011, he
made a solemn pledge to Nigerians: “This campaign is the
third and last one for me. I will not offer myself again for
election into the office of president.” Buhari was
persuaded to break this pledge because Bola Tinubu made
him an offer he could not refuse. He would merge his ACN
party with Buhari’s CPC party. Tinubu’s putative South-
West strength would be combined with Buhari’s mythical
North-West supremacy. The result of this alchemy would
be politically unstoppable: next stop Aso Rock!
However, this plan started to unravel soon after the
marriage and the honeymoon. Overwhelmingly, Nigerian
public opinion rejected the idea of a Muslim/Muslim
presidential ticket; effectively short-circuiting all
delusions of a dream Buhari/Tinubu ticket. With APC’s
nerve-wracking loss in its presumed stronghold of Ekiti,
and with it only able to eke out a victory in its Osun
backyard, and with Mimiko’s defection in Ondo bringing
that state back to the ambit of the PDP, Tinubu’s much-
vaunted strength in the South-West became more fiction
than fact.



Fourth coming of Buhari
If the door was slammed shut to a possible vice-
presidency, Tinubu still has the plan B of nominating a
disciple as Buhari’s vice-presidential running-mate. Thus,
when Buhari finally declared his candidature for president
for a marathon fourth time at Eagle Square, Abuja,
Tinubu’s ACN brigadiers were there in full regalia to give
him conspicuous moral support. The wily Asiwaju himself
was absent, perhaps in order to seem an honest broker
among the APC presidential gladiators. Nevertheless, he
was suitably represented by his Senator wife, Oluremi
Tinubu. Other ACN timber and caliber, including
Babatunde Fashola of Lagos, were also in attendance.
However, rather than crate an unstoppable momentum,
Buhari’s formal declaration only seemed to have
concentrated minds about his chances. The prognosis was
inauspicious. There would be no good luck in Buhari’s
fourth outing. The man is simply politically unelectable as
Nigeria’s president. Some of his turn-coat political allies
always feared this. For example, Nasir El-Rufai, who now
virtually operates as Buhari’s “chief of staff,” observed
just a few years back that Buhari remains “perpetually
unelectable” as a result of his “insensitivity to Nigeria’s
diversity and his parochial focus.”
Buhari’s declared candidacy re-awakened old angst about
his cynical political antecedents, and it made many
reappraise his chances more realistically, now that his
candidature was beyond conjecture. The conclusion
remains the same. Buhari has die-hard Hausa-Fulani
support in the North. But he has even more dyed-in-the-
wool opposition in most other parts of the federation. His
core Northern support is unlikely to translate yet again to
victory at the centre, even with the promissory note of
Tinubu’s fading ACN support in the South-West.


Back to the supermarket
Any right-thinking person knows that Buhari is not the
type of man to allow Tinubu to become the king behind
his presidential throne. Therefore, it did not take long for
the Tinubu mafia to start shopping for a new candidate
with much less political baggage than Buhari. Indeed, the
writing is on the wall that they are now more than likely to
ditch Buhari in order to pitch their tent with some other,
more malleable, APC presidential hopeful.
One likely choice is embattled Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal,
who finally announced his divorce from the PDP this
month, after committing adultery with the opposition for
the better part of four years. Tambuwal had his eyes on
the position of Governor of Sokoto State. But in a dramatic
turnaround, he has now been persuaded to pick up the
nomination form for the APC presidential contest.
Suddenly, the Tinubu brigadiers are now saying Buhari is
too old to be president. Indeed, if elected, he would be
Nigeria’s oldest president at 73. If he runs successfully for
two terms, he would still be president at 81. The
question-mark of Buhari’s age was hardly a hidden secret
until now. It is just that, in the treacherous terrain of
Nigerian politics, it provides a ready-made excuse for
ditching him.


Fashola, who was there to support Buhari at his Eagle
Square declaration, now says what Nigeria needs are
young leaders and not geriatrics: “When 40-year olds are
now leading nations and our 40-year olds can’t even get
to the Senate, they can’t even become governors. Are we
really preparing this generation for the future? Those are
the issues really. We cannot point to success in other
countries and refuse to do what those people are doing to
get things right.” This is a coded way of saying Buhari is
now way too old for Aso Rock.

Machiavellian politics
Politics is a treacherous business. Buhari should know
this by now. He himself was treacherous in being part of a
gang of military officers that seized power illegally from a
democratically-elected government through the barrel of a
gun. He was then, in turn, treacherously overthrown by
his own mates. Buhari should know he is dealing with
politicians seasoned in betrayal. Indeed, duplicity is the
stuff politics and politicians are made of. In politics,
everybody stabs everybody in the back. Therefore,
everybody should expect to be stabbed in the back.
Asked if he would back Buhari if Buhari wins the
nomination for the APC ticket, Atiku told everyone he
would easily stab Buhari in the back; without seeming to
realise it. He said: “I think I have proved that I am a
pragmatic politician. Recall that in 2010 when I failed to
get the PDP ticket against President Jonathan, I and
others went to try to bring about an electoral alliance
between the CPC and ACN.” Atiku’s “pragmatism” is the
stuff of treachery. He failed in the PDP so he promptly
switched to create an alliance between two other
opposition parties. The bell tolls for the APC.


Nuhu Ribadu, as EFCC chairman, named Bola Tinubu as
public enemy number one. But then he turned around to
become the anointed presidential candidate of Tinubu’s
ACN party. This did not prevent Tinubu from stabbing him
in the back. Tinubu entered into a last minute deal with
Buhari of the CPC. Then again, he entered into another
suspected backroom deal with Goodluck Jonathan and the
PDP. But there was payback time for Ribadu. Ribadu was
part of the APC merger. But then he chose his time to
ditch Tinubu and the APC for the PDP.

Some of us have long maintained that Buhari is a political
neophyte. We have had cause to warn him that nobody
wins the nomination of a political party like the APC,
laden with corrupt politicians; by saying he will fight
corruption if elected. Buhari’s anti-corruption hyperbole is
part of what is responsible for the buyers-remorse his
presidential bid is already experiencing.
Pocket infrastructure
Without the backing of the Tinubu brigade, Buhari does
not have a prayer in getting the APC ticket. His lack of
political know-how is going to be a major handicap. He is
up against people like Atiku Abubakar; seasoned wheeler-
dealer politicians who know how to arm-twist convention
delegates. Buhari, on the other hand, has never had to
fight to get a party’s nomination. Instead, parties have
been formed around his presidential ambitions.
Atiku, in particular, has haggled and wrangled through
many nomination conventions since the early 1990s.
Moreover, he has a war-chest of naira bank-notes with
which to grease the process. But Buhari, the man who
claims he had to take a bank loan in order to buy the APC
presidential nomination papers, is going to have a difficult
time convincing APC delegates to pitch their tent with him
without providing pocket infrastructure. Buhari’s approach
is not the realistic way to run for president in today’s
federal republic of Nigeria.
The imminent ditching of Buhari by Tinubu means the
forthcoming APC convention to choose the party’s
presidential candidate is going to be a bloodbath. It is
really going to be ugly. There will be dead bodies strewn
all over the convention floor. Dogs and baboons will
surely be soaked in blood. With its do-or-die politicians
fighting to finish on the eve of the February elections, the
APC will soon provide a textbook case of how not to
campaign against an established party like the PDP in
Nigeria.
Buhari’s talakawa supporters, who caused mayhem when
he lost the last presidential election, will not take kindly
to his likely defeat at the APC primaries. If Buhari is
rejected, he would be humiliated. It would have been
better for him not to have run. Don’t buy all the pious talk
that the losers will support the winner; it is not going to
happen. Even if Buhari were to decide to be diplomatic
about his defeat, his incendiary supporters don’t have the
word diplomacy in their vocabulary.
Catch-22
The APC is caught in a Catch-22. If it fields Buhari, it will
fail at the polls under the weight of his previous political
bag and baggage. If it rejects Buhari, all reliance on his
mystical 12 million votes will go up in smoke. Tambuwal,
Kwankwaso or Atiku cannot replicate those votes. They
have neither Buhari’s hype nor his charisma. With Buhari
out of the reckoning, many of his disgruntled supporters
would rather riot than vote. The APC itself would implode
under the weight of its own internal contradictions. This
is the anti-climax to all the hue and cry about the 2015
election that is now in the cards.
The ditching of Buhari would open a clear pathway for
Atiku; the politician’s politician and Aminu Tambuwal, the
dark horse. Atiku’s dismal performance in previous polls is
eloquent testimony that his presidential hopes are a pie in
the sky. Tambuwal in the APC ticket would be even worse
than the last showing of Nuhu Ribadu of the ACN, who
was even better-known nationally than Tambuwal.
All these shenanigans means the 2015 election will likely
be, to all intents and purposes, a contest between two
PDP politicians. The APC that boasts to be an alternative
to the PDP is likely to end up with a former PDP member
as its presidential candidate. That is change we can
certainly do without.

Even the gods won't read all that long story even thou it's a story for the gods!



Sai Buhari!

experimentist:
Even the gods won't read all that long story even thou it's a story for the gods!



Sai Buhari!

The writer of the said article is a charlatan extraordinaire!

His attempt at forceful 'notice me' by GEJ/PDP is the propelling catalyst behind all of his idiocy-laden write-ups

experimentist:
Even the gods won't read all that long story even thou it's a story for the gods!



Sai Buhari!

After all, it's still babbling as usual.

soroptimist:


The writer of the said article is a charlatan extraordinaire!

His attempt at forceful 'notice me' by GEJ/PDP is the propelling catalyst behind all of his idiocy-laden write-ups

he go write a whole book finish, nobody go read am..

This sounds almost messianic or Christlike

Is there anything like appreciating that in an election you can fail or win in the books of Buhari and his supporters?

He has no Devine right to emerge APC candidate you know?

Aribassa summarised

The writer just told you guys what would unfold and all you guys could do is to bark like rabid dogs?


APC, Na only una waka come?

Truckpusher:
The writer just told you guys what would unfold and all you guys could do is to bark like rabid dogs?


APC, Na only una waka come?

Your asking a bunch of touts they wiped off the streets of Lagos to read and comment intelligently

Any right-thinking person knows that Buhari is not the
type of man to allow Tinubu to become the king behind
his presidential throne. Therefore, it did not take long for
the Tinubu mafia to start shopping for a new candidate
with much less political baggage than Buhari

This is a question that no supporter of Buhari wants to tackle. How can Buhari and Tinubu work if he is so anti-corruption? When BUhari ask all of his people to declare assets id Tinubu ready for a repeat of 84?

All these shenanigans means the 2015 election will likely
be, to all intents and purposes, a contest between two
PDP politicians. The APC that boasts to be an alternative
to the PDP is likely to end up with a former PDP member
as its presidential candidate. That is change we can
certainly do without.

Not only a former PDP but one of the worst administrations ever OBJ's VP will win it. They used the General to increase membership in the North and will soon show him pepper. I hope he will survive it the betrayal is going to shock him to the core.

FASHOLA TO BUHARI:


“When 40-year olds are now leading nations and our 40-year olds can’t even get to the Senate, they can’t even become governors. Are we
really preparing this generation for the future? Those are the issues really. We cannot point to success in other countries and refuse to do what those people are doing to get things right.”




GBAM!!!!!!!!!

handwriting on the wall...

soroptimist:


The writer of the said article is a charlatan extraordinaire!

His attempt at forceful 'notice me' by GEJ/PDP is the propelling catalyst behind all of his idiocy-laden write-ups

i think hes desperate for a real job

soroptimist:


The writer of the said article is a charlatan extraordinaire!

His attempt at forceful 'notice me' by GEJ/PDP is the propelling catalyst behind all of his idiocy-laden write-ups

You have described this Femi Aribisala so aptly!

All his articles in the past one year have been almost invariably an attack on Tinubu, or a fallacious and unsound analysis on why the APC stands no chance against the PDP, or a shamelessly desperate psychological attempt to put a wedge in the budding political alliance between the SW and the North, the prospects of which threaten JEG and his cohorts more than anything else.

Any discerning observer of Femi Aribisala's recent writings can easily see through his pathetic boot-licking of the GEJ government, sometime even stooping to very lowly and shameless bigotry. A few examples:

1. "The Northern politicians clamouring for power after being starved of it for 16 years are not dying to do any favours for the South-West, given the eight years of Obasanjo’s presidency. They are dying to do favours for themselves. Once a Northern president is firmly installed in Aso Rock, they are going to stop returning Tinubu’s phone-calls." Femi Aribisala http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/01/bola-tinubu-want/

Can Femi dare tell the people of the SW what favours the South-South presidency of GEJ has been doing for the SW region and its people in the past 5 years? And how has GEJ been treating phone calls, and even letters, from OBJ, his SWestern political godfather, and that of Tinubu, who was also so instrumental in his victory? Can Femi tell us why OBJ felt it necessary to write his lengthy open letter to the non-Northern president in relation to the interests of the SW region?

2. " - The APC adventure marks the end of the road politically for Tinubu. It is downhill all the way for him from now on. The very things that made Tinubu successful in the South-West are bound to shipwreck him in the APC." Femi Aribisala
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/01/bola-tinubu-want/

Clearly, this betrays Femi as one of those who are so much pained about Tinubu's political status in today's Nigeria, hence he is so openly wishful of seeing 'the end of the road' for him politically and 'downhill all the way for him from now on'. Imagine this coming from someone who wants to be seen as a 'man of God'!

3. "Nigerians should not allow themselves to be deceived. There is no doubt that on the basis of merit alone, Goodluck Jonathan deserves another term in office. Few governments of Nigeria have been as purposeful as that of Goodluck Jonathan" Femi Aribisala
http://newswirengr.com/2014/10/14/femi-aribisala-what-exactly-is-clueless-about-goodluck-jonathan-2/#

For someone to have so immorally and unconsciously praised this obscenely corrupt and callously irresponsive and irresponsible administration of GEJ in this shameless manner only last month, and still believes he can advise the APC on who is their best candidate to defeat the 'purposeful' government of GEJ in the 2015 election, is simply delusional and narcissistic!

Make I join dey watch...

A fool at 73 is a fool forever. This Aribisala man knows how to get under the skin of the janjawidows with his slick punchlines.
What we are seeing is the backstabbing, deceit and evil which the APC represent.

I don't think this party will make it to the election in one piece, the odds' just stacked against them seriously.

What do I even expect from a party that has Obasanjo as its navigator and Tinubu as the conductor. What other name can we call that kind of bus - ONE CHANCE.

Buhari just entered one chance

Balyz:
i think hes desperate for a real job

Seems he has two photos on his livingroom wall - Abati looking wretched pre the Aso Rock job and Abati after.

His dream is to achieve same and for that, no amount of grovelling and self-immolation is too much.

One of those who make you wonder at their moral compass

Arisabala, a job seeker, it is only a f.ool that will take this unserious man serious.

Some of his turn-coat political allies
always feared this. For example, Nasir El-Rufai, who now
virtually operates as Buhari’s “chief of staff,” observed
just a few years back that Buhari remains “perpetually
unelectable” as a result of his “insensitivity to Nigeria’s
diversity and his parochial focus.”

Midget rufai, he's one of the biggest disadvantage to the general, i wonder what prompt him to say the man is unelectable, how he has become electable from those years till this day. Midget rufai, just like banicansta, anywhere belle face

LFJ:
Arisabala, a job seeker, it is only a f.ool that will take this unserious man serious.

Bro, did you read write up? that man just like a prophet, though i don't pray for any of this to happen because we will be doom in the hands of GEJ/PDP, i want if APC can't win 2015 but remain as a formidable opposition to put PDP on their toes after giving them a good fight at the pools.

I fink d Apc primaries itself wud b more eventful dan the presidential election...watching 4rm afar...let's see hw it all plays awt

Goodluck Jonathan till 2019!

many APShit Supporters are sharia blinded moslems, the same reason there's chaos in this country.

if you don't know, go and research, APShit are the sponsors of boko haram!

The pertinent question is how would all APC vociferous supporters deal with the imminent anticlimax/meltdown staring the party in the face as we approach the finishing line in the 2015 race.

Lmao

This Aribisala is a fvcking Koyote!
I'd be damned if I read this!!

LogicPower:


You have described this Femi Aribisala so aptly!

All his articles in the past one year have been almost invariably an attack on Tinubu, or a fallacious and unsound analysis on why the APC stands no chance against the PDP, or a shamelessly desperate psychological attempt to put a wedge in the budding political alliance between the SW and the North, the prospects of which threaten the JEG and cohorts more than anything else.

Any discerning observer of Femi Aribisala's recent writings can easily see through his pathetic boot-licking of the GEJ government, sometime even stooping to very lowly and shameless bigotry. A few examples:

1. "The Northern politicians clamouring for power after being starved of it for 16 years are not dying to do any favours for the South-West, given the eight years of Obasanjo’s presidency. They are dying to do favours for themselves. Once a Northern president is firmly installed in Aso Rock, they are going to stop returning Tinubu’s phone-calls." Femi Aribisala http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/01/bola-tinubu-want/

Can Femi dare tell the people of the SW what favours the South-South presidency of GEJ has been doing for the SW region and its people in the past 5 years? And how has GEJ been treating phone calls, and even letters, from OBJ, his SWestern political godfather, and that of Tinubu, who was also so instrumental in his victory? Can Femi tell us why OBJ felt it necessary to write his lengthy open letter to the non-Northern president in relation to the interests of the SW region?

2. " - The APC adventure marks the end of the road politically for Tinubu. It is downhill all the way for him from now on. The very things that made Tinubu successful in the South-West are bound to shipwreck him in the APC." Femi Aribisala
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/01/bola-tinubu-want/

Clearly, this betrays Femi as one of those who are so much pained about Tinubu's political status in today's Nigeria, hence he is so openly wishful of seeing 'the end of the road' for him politically and 'downhill all the way for him from now on'. Imagine this coming from someone who wants to be seen as a 'man of God'!

3. "Nigerians should not allow themselves to be deceived. There is no doubt that on the basis of merit alone, Goodluck Jonathan deserves another term in office. Few governments of Nigeria have been as purposeful as that of Goodluck Jonathan" Femi Aribisala
http://newswirengr.com/2014/10/14/femi-aribisala-what-exactly-is-clueless-about-goodluck-jonathan-2/#

For someone to have so immorally and unconsciously praised this obscenely corrupt and callously irresponsive and irresponsible administration of GEJ in this shameless manner only last month, and still believes he can advise the APC on who is their best candidate to defeat the 'purposeful' government of GEJ in the 2015 election, is simply delusional and narcissistic!

I'm awed by your write-up.

You just have to give it to Femi, he aptly says it as it is. Even when you try to fault his partisanship, you hardly fault the truth he makes bare.

Hmm.. One of the most glaring truth. Buhari might be a 'SAVIOUR', but he's association with bandits and vile men seems like he's downfall.

He clearly isn't a politician. Read in another article where Atiku said something about visiting most delegates. In as much as buhari has a good plan, the odds are clearly stacked against him.

You do need the people's vote to win the election, but it's the delegates vote that decide if you get the chance to go 4 the election. And its quite obvious that the back-stabbing tinubu and Atiku wouldn't mind doing it again to him.

SMALLPENIS:
Goodluck Jonathan till 2019!

many APShit Supporters are sharia blinded moslems, the same reason there's chaos in this country.

if you don't know, go and research, APShit are the sponsors of boko haram!

Ogbeni, I like u better when u comment on the gaming section, but here... MBA!!!

Politics is not for all