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My Thoughts And Questions About Religion - Religion (49) - Nairaland

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Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 12:22pm On Oct 05, 2016
stephenmorris:
... copy and tell me so i can delete it sir

Got it. You will get a mail from me today.
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by Nobody: 12:23pm On Oct 05, 2016
joseph1013:
Got it. You will get a mail from me today.
kk
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 8:35am On Oct 06, 2016
[b]WHAT PROBLEM OF EVIL?

I don't think it's very intelligent to use the problem of evil as a reason not to believe in God. There is no problem of evil.

Read the Bible and you'll find story after story of God engaging in, commanding or permitting mass murder, genocide, ethnic cleansing, killing babies, slavery, rape, the persecution of women, the disabled and gay people, and much more.

It's simple, God is said to be omniscient and omnipotent so he could have made any world he wanted. And he did. There is evil in the world because that is God's nature and he wanted it that way. There is no other coherent explanation.

People only use the argument from evil because Christians mistakenly insist that God loves, cherishes and protects each and every one of us. But nothing in God's behaviour suggests this is true. It is wishful thinking. The advice traditionally given to teen girls is sound, "Don't believe a man when he says he loves you--believe him when he shows he loves you". The same goes for gods.

So don't use the problem of evil; there are much better arguments. The most important being there is absolutely no reason to believe any gods exist and ample reasons to believe gods are human inventions.[/b]

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Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 9:39am On Oct 09, 2016
This is an interesting video. What do you think?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVsVgAqV9WI&itct=CBwQpDAYASITCOaz7-2nzc8CFSYHfwodEZ4EwlIOZGFya21hdHRlcjI1MjU%3D&client=mv-google&hl=en&gl=NG

cc: seun, jhonnydon22, pastoraio, frank317, stephenmorris,

1 Like

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by Nobody: 9:56am On Oct 09, 2016
joseph1013:
This is an interesting video. What do you think?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVsVgAqV9WI&itct=CBwQpDAYASITCOaz7-2nzc8CFSYHfwodEZ4EwlIOZGFya21hdHRlcjI1MjU%3D&client=mv-google&hl=en&gl=NG

cc: seun, jhonnydon22, pastoraio, frank317, stephenmorris,
i go watch am later ,expect my reply evening period ,,bro
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 5:14pm On Oct 10, 2016
NOT 'IF' BUT 'WHEN'

Religions survive by teaching young children silly stories as truths, by distorting reason and by restricting access to contrary ideas.

Now, most young people can access the internet where it is hard to avoid contrary ideas and where they will meet non-believers who are moral, intelligent, well-read and fiercely logical.

Superstition and lies cannot compete.

Now, it is not a question of IF religions will die; it is only a question of how quickly.

8 Likes

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by PastorAIO: 10:45am On Oct 11, 2016

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Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 11:04am On Oct 12, 2016
[b]MY ADVICE TO A CHRISTIAN

One of my Christian friends asked me (facetiously, I think) "If l should abandon my God today, what would you recommend for me?"

Here is my advice.

I advise you not to--you are not ready yet. When you are ready, you won't need to ask for advice. When you are ready, the lack of evidence for invisible beings will be SO obvious that you will kick yourself for days that you were ever taken in by such nonsense. You don't need to abandon an illusion--you need to acknowledge it.

You will see everything with a new and fresher perspective. For example, you will see that people invent Gods (and invent even more religions) and the fact that everyone fights to defend their family god is significant. They don't do that because they KNOW their family god is real but because they have been taught to BELIEVE their family god is real. And defending their god is defending their family and their culture.

When you think about how to treat your fellow humans, you won't wonder what a book written by people with backward Iron Age morals says, you will think about the consequences of your actions and how they affect the wellbeing of other sentient beings. You won't hope attacking or denying rights to a gay person will get you brownie points in an afterlife, rather you will know you should be helping and loving people, not attacking them.

When you abandon your God-belief, the world will become ever so slightly a nicer place. But don't do it until you're ready.[/b]

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Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by Nobody: 9:45pm On Oct 13, 2016
joseph1013:
[b]MY ADVICE TO A CHRISTIAN

One of my Christian friends asked me (facetiously, I think) "If l should abandon my God today, what would you recommend for me?"

Here is my advice.

I advise you not to--you are not ready yet. When you are ready, you won't need to ask for advice. When you are ready, the lack of evidence for invisible beings will be SO obvious that you will kick yourself for days that you were ever taken in by such nonsense. You don't need to abandon an illusion--you need to acknowledge it.

You will see everything with a new and fresher perspective. For example, you will see that people invent Gods (and invent even more religions) and the fact that everyone fights to defend their family god is significant. They don't do that because they KNOW their family god is real but because they have been taught to BELIEVE their family god is real. And defending their god is defending their family and their culture.

When you think about how to treat your fellow humans, you won't wonder what a book written by people with backward Iron Age morals says, you will think about the consequences of your actions and how they affect the wellbeing of other sentient beings. You won't hope attacking or denying rights to a gay person will get you brownie points in an afterlife, rather you will know you should be helping and loving people, not attacking them.

When you abandon your God-belief, the world will become ever so slightly a nicer place. But don't do it until you're ready.[/b]
nice one
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 10:12am On Oct 18, 2016
[b]'MUSLIMS' CAN CHANGE

All religions have their extremists. Christian extremists want to teach creationism as science; Muslim extremists want to behead infidels.

Christian extremists want to ban abortion; Muslim extremists want to stone women to death for adultery.

Christian extremists want to deny gay people the right to marry; Muslim extremists want to hang them.

Christian extremists want children sent to religious summer camps; Muslim extremists want to execute people who lose their belief in Islam.

Some estimates put extremists at 15-25% of all Muslims. I can't say if that figure is right but I do know it took very little time to recruit enough Muslim extremists to take over half of Iraq by force.

There is a conclusion here that moderate Muslims have never faced up to—a religion that breeds extremists this violent and in these numbers is not fit for purpose.

Jews disregard many of the laws they find in the Torah, such as the law that condemns adulterers to death. But Jews have a get-out-of-jail-free card—they believe men wrote the Bible inspired by God. This gives them licence to re-interpret verses as human morality progresses.

Muslims have no such luck. They believe the Qur'an is the direct word of God, so they cannot change anything and have to believe everything.
It is this burden that stultifies the religion and ensures that, generation-after-generation, it produces individuals with Iron-Age morals who will take a knife and cut off a man's head for holding the wrong beliefs or welcome death as a martyr to gain access to Heaven.

If Islam cannot change, the future is bleak. They will not be able to drag the world back to the Iron-Age and much blood will be shed if they try. If Islam cannot change, the only hope is that Muslims can change.
[/b]

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Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 7:45pm On Oct 24, 2016
[b]GOD'S FAILED STRATEGY

Some say that God not only exists, but longs to have a meaningful relationship with each one of us. However, in his infinite wisdom, God decided to hide from us--forcing us to rely on faith to believe he exists.

One problem with this strategy is that once we resort to faith, we can believe ANY god exists or many gods exist and, with only faith to go on, it's hard for anyone to prove us wrong. This is rather like giving us a special dice with not six faces, but a few thousand faces--with a different god inscribed on each face.

So God allows chance to decide who will engage in a meaningful relationship with him and who won't. It's pretty obvious this doesn't work very well. After 3,000 or more years, people still worship many different gods. And even those who believe in God have widely varying beliefs about what he is like, what he wants of us and his plans for us.

Furthermore, people are increasingly moving from faith to sense and deciding there are no good reasons to believe God exists.

Hiding from the people you dearly love is a ridiculous strategy and you don't need to be omniscient to figure that out.[/b]

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Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 6:51pm On Oct 25, 2016
[b]HOW TO GET MORALITY FROM GOD

If God is perfectly moral, as believers claim, he should be an excellent role model. Taking God as perfectly moral, you should see these ten things as good:

1. Punishing future generations for the sins of their distant ancestors.

2. Killing a child to punish his father.

3. Punishing a man by having his wife raped in public.

4. Forcing a girl who has been raped to marry her rapist.

5. Holding people as property to be bought, sold and passed on to your children.

6. Killing whole nations if you don't like their religion.

7. Keeping the young girls of defeated tribes for forced sex.

8. Selling your daughters as concubines.

9. Torturing people in fire forever.

10. Killing the firstborn of a whole nation to show how powerful you are.

These are all things, according to the Bible, that God did, or things he commanded or permitted others to do. Interestingly, these are all things that are illegal in every country in the world today but were commonly practiced among the Iron Age tribes who wrote the Bible.

Have we become less moral? Or is the Bible a book of Iron Age morality which we have far surpassed?

Possibly the only way to get morality from God, is to check what he did, and then do the opposite.

Like I have said before, believers are moral than the gods they believe in.[/b]

6 Likes 3 Shares

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by ecton(m): 11:50am On Oct 26, 2016
[quote author=joseph1013 post=49405581][/quote]
Please do you have a copy of the book? I've been looking for it. Here's my contact: emeboanthony@gmail.com
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 3:27pm On Oct 26, 2016
ecton:

Please do you have a copy of the book? I've been looking for it. Here's my contact: emeboanthony@gmail.com

What book?
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by Nobody: 3:33pm On Oct 26, 2016
joseph1013:


What book?
almost 2 years and counting , nothing do u my brother, still th most ground breaking thread ever by a lone person, I like the way you also mix the thoughts of others in your thread bro,,,,,,, thumbs up

5 Likes 1 Share

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 3:37pm On Oct 26, 2016
stephenmorris:
almost 2 years and counting , nothing do u my brother, still th most ground breaking thread ever by a lone person, I like the way you also mix the thoughts of others in your thread bro,,,,,,, thumbs up
Thanks bro. Really appreciated.

3 Likes

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 7:33am On Oct 27, 2016
QUESTION 4 (COMPULSORY) (20 marks)

God is hidden because:

1) He loves us so much that he wants to be sure we love him too. Despite knowing everything, he can only be sure we love him by making people earnestly seek him. The unfortunate side-effect of this is that billions of people he dearly loves will not manage to find him and will have to be punished by being roasted in fire for ever. He truly believes this is a price worth paying to be sure of something he knows anyway. Remember, whatever happens, God loves you.

OR

2) He does not exist.

7 Likes 1 Share

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by visita: 10:51am On Oct 27, 2016
Lol..Nice one bro
joseph1013:
QUESTION 4 (COMPULSORY) (20 marks)

God is hidden because:

1) He loves us so much that he wants to be sure we love him too. Despite knowing everything, he can only be sure we love him by making people earnestly seek him. The unfortunate side-effect of this is that billions of people he dearly loves will not manage to find him and will have to be punished by being roasted in fire for ever. He truly believes this is a price worth paying to be sure of something he knows anyway. Remember, whatever happens, God loves you.

OR

2) He does not exist.
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 1:16pm On Oct 28, 2016
[b]OUR MOST EXTRAORDINARY DISCOVERY

Heaven is mankind's most extraordinary discovery ever. Forget space probes exploring distant planets or machines diving to the depths of the oceans; forget the Higgs boson or discovering the age of the universe and forget discovering the molecular chemistry of our emotions and of our DNA. Discovering Heaven tops them all and then some.

How did we make this extraordinary discovery? Was it the Large Hadron Collider, the Hubble space telescope or the Cassini Orbiter? No, it was none of these things.

Discovery of Heaven came to us through the dreams a handful of men experienced several thousands of years ago. These men did not know the Earth travelled around the sun or that bacteria caused infections but their dreams informed them of a magical kingdom in which people lived forever in bliss and happiness. They told people about their dreams and eventually wrote them down.

We still read these stories today. We know these ancient dreamers got much wrong and that Heaven contradicts all known science. But despite that, and the fact that we cannot verify that Heaven is real, billions of people believe it is.

This is a bit like being promised you will win the lottery at the weekend and believing it with certainty. Actually, it is MUCH worse than that—at least we know the lottery exists.

Things are not true because you would like them to be true. Sorry.[/b]

8 Likes 4 Shares

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by urahara(m): 10:18pm On Oct 29, 2016
joseph1013:
[b]GOD'S FAILED STRATEGY

Some say that God not only exists, but longs to have a meaningful relationship with each one of us. However, in his infinite wisdom, God decided to hide from us--forcing us to rely on faith to believe he exists.

One problem with this strategy is that once we resort to faith, we can believe ANY god exists or many gods exist and, with only faith to go on, it's hard for anyone to prove us wrong. This is rather like giving us a special dice with not six faces, but a few thousand faces--with a different god inscribed on each face.

So God allows chance to decide who will engage in a meaningful relationship with him and who won't. It's pretty obvious this doesn't work very well. After 3,000 or more years, people still worship many different gods. And even those who believe in God have widely varying beliefs about what he is like, what he wants of us and his plans for us.

Furthermore, people are increasingly moving from faith to sense and deciding there are no good reasons to believe God exists.

Hiding from the people you dearly love is a ridiculous strategy and you don't need to be omniscient to figure that out.[/b]

Sir u are 2 much

2 Likes

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 5:23pm On Nov 01, 2016
THE THEIST'S SILLIEST QUESTION

I really am tired of religious people asking me how the universe began. They seem to imagine this question will stop me in my tracks. They couldn't be further from the truth. To ask this question is to admit you have not seriously thought about the existence of your god. Perhaps the question below will help you see why.
...
If we don't know how the universe began, is this evidence that:

1) Yahweh exists?
2) Allah exists?
3) Lord Brahma exists?
4) Ungambikula exists?
5) Odin exists?
6) All of the above?
7) None of the above?
8 ) We haven't yet figured out how the universe began?

Please give your answer in the comments. Don't be shy.

6 Likes

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 9:33pm On Nov 01, 2016
CHUKWU is not YAHWEH
- Steve Abia

Igbo Christians, please listen up, the Judeo-Christian god you worship is not the same as Chukwu, in Igbo mythology.

Chukwu is the Almighty supreme God. Our ancestors worshiped Chukwu through the lesser deities because his ways are are assumed to be too high for men - men need something closer to them, and Chukwu understands.

Chukwu is not jealous, unlike the Jewish God, Yahweh. He recognises the existence of lesser gods and He accords them respect. There is no conflict of interest. Chukwu is tolerant. He does not feel threatened by the arrival of new deities. Even when other gods become vicious,
Chukwu cannot loose his cool. He does not meddle with the mundane affairs of little men and gods. He is busy maintaining the cosmic balance.

Chukwu is more of an impersonal god - a god of the philosophers and the deist - rather than a personal god.

When Igbo Christians refer to Judeo-christian God as 'Chukwu', I'm perplexed. There is no relationship between Jehovah and Chukwu. The characters of both gods differ. The Jewish God is a very personal god, tribalistic, petty - he can butcher little kids for mocking an old bald man. He is claimed to be involved in the everyday affairs of men, he is viciously jealous of other gods and has threatened mankind with eternal fire for daring to ignore him.

Addressing the Jewish God as Chukwu is inappropriate and a mark of ignorance! This happens when a people refuses to teach their children their own stories and mythology but would rather teach them stories of far away cultures and lands.

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Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by noblefada: 12:12am On Nov 02, 2016
joseph1013:
QUESTION 4 (COMPULSORY) (20 marks)

God is hidden because:

1) He loves us so much that he wants to be sure we love him too. Despite knowing everything, he can only be sure we love him by making people earnestly seek him. The unfortunate side-effect of this is that billions of people he dearly loves will not manage to find him and will have to be punished by being roasted in fire for ever. He truly believes this is a price worth paying to be sure of something he knows anyway. Remember, whatever happens, God loves you.

OR

2) He does not exist.

Can you please stop this ignorant posts already! Writing so confidently about a God you know nothing about. At least get the right knowledge about the God first, rather than wasting many years posting irrelevant questions and jibes based on rumors you've heard about God.
Go to www.livingwordmedia.org and get the requisite knowledge, the teachings are free to download.

1 Like

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 6:38am On Nov 02, 2016
noblefada:


Can you please stop this ignorant posts already! Writing so confidently about a God you know nothing about. At least get the right knowledge about the God first, rather than wasting many years posting irrelevant questions and jibes based on rumors you've heard about God.
Go to www.livingwordmedia.org and get the requisite knowledge, the teachings are free to download.

I have been to better sites than the one you just referred me to. I love a good debate. Can you tell us what you have against the post you quoted?

NB: This dude sent me to a funny website where they ask for payment via an online transaction. LOL

5 Likes 1 Share

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by HomoSapiien: 12:55pm On Nov 02, 2016
joseph1013:


I have been to better sites than the one you just referred me to. I love a good debate. Can you tell us what you have against the post you quoted?

NB: This dude sent me to a funny website where they ask for payment via an online transaction. LOL

lol grin
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by PastorAIO: 1:20pm On Nov 02, 2016
joseph1013:


I have been to better sites than the one you just referred me to. I love a good debate. Can you tell us what you have against the post you quoted?

NB: This dude sent me to a funny website where they ask for payment via an online transaction. LOL

No how no how, they must try to scam some money out of people shaaa...
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 2:36pm On Nov 02, 2016
PastorAIO:


No how no how, they must try to scam some money out of people shaaa...

The hustle is real!

1 Like

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 2:44pm On Nov 02, 2016
HomoSapiien:


lol grin

As in...when there is MMM where they can try their luck before it crashes. Oh...I hear they even preach the gospel of MMM in church nowadays. It's always about the money. LOL

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by urahara(m): 4:47pm On Nov 02, 2016
joseph1013:


As in...when there is MMM where they can try their luck before it crashes. Oh...I hear they even preach the gospel of MMM in church nowadays. It's always about the money. LOL


Itz all bout the money o grin
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by noblefada: 10:32am On Nov 03, 2016
joseph1013:


I have been to better sites than the one you just referred me to. I love a good debate. Can you tell us what you have against the post you quoted?

NB: This dude sent me to a funny website where they ask for payment via an online transaction. LOL

Haba! Be truthful, the content of the website is totally free and thousands all over the world have been downloading materials from the website free of charge (you can check up on the statistics of the website). The payment platform was requested by folks that have benefited from the website and specially ask for an opportunity to give back. Go and check, every material on that website can be downloaded without paying a dime. I think you should double check things before you post it on a public forum.

Did you download any of the material I referred you to? The thing I've against your post is that it is born from a mind that have no knowledge of who God is. It is due to a lack of or a seriously skewed knowledge about the personality of God.

I'm sorry I'll not engage you in any debate because our knowledge of the subject matter is totally opposite and too far apart hence the debate will not be fruitful. It's like for instance asking you who has a PhD in Quantum Physics coming to debate with me a diploma holder in music on the subject of life. It is going to an uneventful and unproductive debate.

Remember I said you knowledge about God is seriously lacking or very skewed! Let me give you a snippet of what I'm talking about, it is from one on the teaching I referred you to, The Law in Genesis Series 2 track 3. Please I beg of you listen, be patient and afterward lets talk.
I tried uploading the track but it's large, is there a way I can email it to you?

Shalom
Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 11:15am On Nov 03, 2016
noblefada:


Haba! Be truthful, the content of the website is totally free and thousands all over the world have been downloading materials from the website free of charge (you can check up on the statistics of the website). The payment platform was requested by folks that have benefited from the website and specially ask for an opportunity to give back. Go and check, every material on that website can be downloaded without paying a dime. I think you should double check things before you post it on a public forum.

Yes or No, is there a payment transaction option on the site or not? Religious organizations claim not to cajole people to part with their monies, but we know how that works in the real world.

Did you download any of the material I referred you to? The thing I've against your post is that it is born from a mind that have no knowledge of who God is. It is due to a lack of or a seriously skewed knowledge about the personality of God.
I'm sorry I'll not engage you in any debate because our knowledge of the subject matter is totally opposite and too far apart hence the debate will not be fruitful. It's like for instance asking you who has a PhD in Quantum Physics coming to debate with me a diploma holder in music on the subject of life. It is going to an uneventful and unproductive debate.

Are you trying to say that you are like the person who has the PhD in Quantum Physics and I'm like the diploma holder in Music? That's fine. But there is a saying, "we learn something from everyone who passes through our lives..." Please allow me to drink from your fountain of knowledge. I would love an answer to this: why do you believe Christianity is true as compared to other religions? Remember that 1st Peter 3:15 says, "But sanctify the Lord God in your hearts: and be ready always to give an answer to every man that asketh you a reason of the hope that is in you..." Please don't think me too lowly for a response.

Remember I said you knowledge about God is seriously lacking or very skewed! Let me give you a snippet of what I'm talking about, it is from one on the teaching I referred you to, The Law in Genesis Series 2 track 3. Please I beg of you listen, be patient and afterward lets talk.
I tried uploading the track but it's large, is there a way I can email it to you?

Shalom

Well, it could be true that I am lacking in knowledge about God but there is no way we can know for sure unless we have a discussion about it. I personally think I am quite vast in these things, but then I have been wrong before. Why not give us a summary of what the track talks about. I am very familiar with the book of Genesis and most of the doctrines Nigerian pastors have coined from it.

5 Likes

Re: My Thoughts And Questions About Religion by joseph1013: 6:03pm On Nov 03, 2016
Forgive me, but I am always reading. I stumbled across an article in the Washington Post today about the subject of probability and while the subject is one I am familiar with, what the article contains is still intriguing to me. Believers would do well to understand probability because what they often call supernatural occurrences is just a lack of the knowledge of how probability works. It's a very long read. I reproduce the article below:

The strangest coincidences of your life probably aren’t that strange at all
By Ana Swanson November 2 at 12:14 PM

Mathematician Joseph Mazur was in the back of a van snaking through the mountains of Sardinia when he heard one of his favorite coincidence stories. The driver, an Italian language teacher named Francesco, told of meeting a woman named Manuela who had come to study at his school. Francesco and Manuela met for the first time in a hotel lobby, and then went to have coffee.

They spoke for an hour, getting acquainted, before the uncomfortable truth came out. Noting Manuela’s nearly perfect Italian, Francesco finally asked why she decided to come to his school.

“She said, ‘Italian? What are you talk about? I’m not here to learn Italian,’” Mazur relates. “And then it dawned on both of them that she was the wrong Manuela and he was the wrong Francesco.” They returned to the hotel lobby where they had met to find a different Francesco offering a different Manuela a job she didn’t want or expect.

The tale is one of the many stories that populate Mazur’s new book, “Fluke,” in which he explores the probability of coincidences.

Mazur argues that most of the coincidences we experience -- like stumbling into a close friend halfway around the world, meeting someone with the same birthday, or even dreaming of an event before it happens -- can be explained by simple mathematics. If coincidences seem so surprising to us, it's because people often fail to understand how the basic laws of probability work.

The chance of meeting someone with your birthday

For example, you might be surprised to meet someone who shares your birthday. But should you be?

Mathematicians call this "the birthday problem," and they usually phrase it like this: How big of a group of people do you have to assemble before there’s a 50-50 chance that two of the people share the same birthday? If you haven’t heard this problem before, take a guess now before reading further.

Right away, you know that if you assemble a group of 366 people, there's 100 percent probability that two people will have the same birthday -- since there are only 365 days in a year, excluding leap year. But the probability is still almost certain with a much smaller group than that.

For this problem, it's easier to look at the opposite case, the probability that no two people in a room have the same birthday. To figure out the probability of two independent events occurring together, like two people being born on the same day, you need to multiply the probabilities of each event. So the probability that two people do not share the same birthday is 365/365 x 364/365.

That equals about 99.7 percent -- meaning that, with just two people, it's very likely neither will have the same birthday. The probability that three random people do not share the same birthday is 99.18 percent.

But as you add people to this equation, the probability that no two people are born on the same day starts to fall, first gradually, and then sharply. With five people, it's 97.3 percent. At 15 people, it's 74.7 percent. And to get better than even odds (50 percent or more) that two people in the room have the same birthday, you only have to assemble 23 people.

It might seem strange that that number is so low, but consider this -- every person you add to the mix is compared independently with every other person in the group. Among 23 people, there are 253 potential pairings -- which creates a lot of potential for two people to share a birthday.

As the graph below shows, by the time you reach 60 people, it's close to certain that the group will contain a birthday match.

[img]https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2016/11/probability.png&w=1484[/img]

The problem has interesting practical applications -- for example, figuring out how likely it is that the FBI's database of genetic material contains random matches between people. While the kind of DNA readings that are used to convict suspects in criminal cases are highly unique, studies have shown that the chance of a random match between two unrelated people may be higher than convicting juries assume.

The chance of a monkey writing Shakespeare

Mazur discusses another problem that tells you a lot about how people misunderstand probabilities: the monkey problem, which originated with mathematician Emile Borel.


In 1913, Borel decided to tackle an age-old question about randomness, Mazur says. “He asked the question, ‘Could totally random events amount to something meaningful?’ And the popular rendition of the question soon became, ‘Could a monkey randomly hitting the keys of a keyboard type out a Shakespearean sonnet?’”

You’ve probably heard the question before – it’s become widespread in pop culture, including in this Simpson’s clip from 1993, in which Mr. Burns keeps a roomful of monkeys hammering away on typewriters, in hope of creating the next great work of literature:


Borel's answer to the monkey problems was, essentially, yes -- a monkey will eventually type out a Shakespearean sonnet, though it could take a very long time. As Mazur says, the probability of a monkey randomly typing "shall" -- as in "Shall I compare thee to a summer's day" -- is in itself nearly 1 in 12 million.

But if the monkey tries many, many times, or more fellow monkeys join it in its endeavor, that probability starts to drop. With 8.2 million tries, the monkey has a better than even chance of typing the word "shall."

This same principle is used in brute force attempts to crack passwords, in which algorithms use trial and error methods to quickly run through potential password combinations. This is why longer passwords are so much more secure than shorter ones, just as it's much harder for the monkey to type out a sonnet than the word "shall."

Why coincidences are so surprising

A central argument of Mazur’s book is that people tend to make several common mistakes when thinking about probabilities.

For example, think of probability estimate like FiveThirtyEight's 2016 Election Forecast, which in early November showed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with a 70 percent chance of winning and Republican candidate Donald Trump with a 30 percent chance. Many people look at a lopsided probability like that and assume that a Clinton win is all but assured. And if Donald Trump were to be victorious, some might assume FiveThirtyEight got it wrong.


But that's not, of course, how probability works. With more than a one-in-four chance, Donald Trump could still easily win the 2016 election.

Another reason people tend to misunderstand probability is our selective attention -- we notice and remember coincidences, but we hardly ever heed their absence. Think of all the people you've met who don't share your birthday, for example. It's a huge number in comparison to those who do share it. After meeting so many people who don't share your birthday, you're bound to meet someone who does.

This is a point that's illustrated by the monkey problem -- as the number of trials rises, even very rare events have a high likelihood of occurring.

Something similar happens with the Francesco and Manuela story. It seems like a strange event, but as you add in other pairs of popular names, and other hotel lobbies around the world, the probability of an incident of this type occurring begins to grow.

“The mistaken identity event is more common than we think because numbers behind them are larger than we imagine," Mazur writes. "[I]f we include all the hotel lobbies of the entire world, our number would grow so large that we should be certain that two pairs of people will have a mistaken identity meeting in some hotel lobby (I would guess) somewhere every hour!”

This tendency to overestimate or underestimate particular numbers is what gives rise to our great surprise at many coincidences. As Mazur writes, “we are often deceived by the magnitude of our world.” With so many chance events occurring to so many people around the world, stunning coincidences are only natural.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/02/why-lifes-strangest-coincidences-really-arent-that-strange-at-all/

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