I have been watching the election campaigns from all party candidates very closely and I have come to the following conclusions using a mix of both qualitative/quantitative research i.e. observations from newspapers, TV stations, interviews carried out and feedback from selected sections of the electorate.

There are going to be over 10 presidential candidates but I think we can all agree that only 2 candidates have a good chance of winning the election; Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari (APC). This particular study relates to just the[b] South East of Nigeria[/b].

1. Imo State

The PDP has a strong base in Imo state and naturally, it will be expected that the party will inevitably win the election, however the present governor- Owelle Rochas Okorocha has proved to be a strong political leader that is well loved and respected across the whole state. A year ago, the PDP would have won the elections with a landslide victory but the Okorocha effect has totally affected that permutation.

Going by the popularity of Okorocha and his performance as governor in the state and also the fact that indigenes would want to ensure that they benefit significantly from the Federal government if the APC wins, the opposition party will win by a small margin

Projections: APC (52%): PDP (48%)

2. Enugu State

This state is controlled by the PDP and the outgoing governor Barrister Sullivan Chime is arguably one of the best performing governors in Nigeria. He has transformed Enugu state in all major sectors from education, industry, and the civil service. He embarked on daring infrastructural developments which as made Enugu one of the most vibrant and beautiful cities in the country. The state recently got recognition from the Guardian newspaper (UK) - where they predicted that it will be Nigeria's flagship city.

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/adam-smith-international-partner-zone/2015/jan/09/urbanisation-nigeria-rises-to-the-challenge

However, things have not been smooth for Barrister Chime, despite his achievements, he has faced interference in his government from the central PDP unit in Abuja under the command of Dr Jonathan. This reached an unbelievable level when his efforts to become a senator was recently truncated by Abuja. He is not happy and close sources indicate that he will not work for Jonathan's re-election.

Another major factor in enugu and indeed all of Ndigbo is RF Mbaka, his New year message where he lambasted the current administration has spread like wild fire and his message is resonating with the masses.

Based on these factors, it is predicted that the APC will win marginally

Projections: APC (51%) PDP (49%)



3. Anambra State

The case of Anambra is the most surprising of all SE states. Anambrians are noted for their intelligence, insularity and Igbo nationalistic idealism, they remain the only state who retain APGA as the state party. They recently voted in Governor Obiano, a man that has proved to be quite pragmatic and forward thinking. When he came on board, many Igbos thought he could champion Igbo nationalism but he has proved to be very smart and intelligent. Last week, he openly declared that Igbos are better in one Nigeria.

Sources from Anambra government say that Obiano is not supporting either candidates and will work with whoever wins. In the past, one would have expected Obiano to tow the line of his successor and openly support GEJ but he has decided to be neutral.

From a survey conducted in Anambra state, we call it evens

Projections: APC(50%) PDP (50%)

Nonsense..

Have you heard of flawless victory before??

GEJ will win each of the south eastern state convincingly well..

Can I shock you? GEJ will also win in kano, kastina and kaduna...Don't 4get I said so..

DDeliverer:
Nonsense..

Have you heard of flawless victory before??

GEJ will win each of the south eastern state convincingly well..

Can I shock you? GEJ will also win in kano, kastina and kaduna...Don't 4get I said so..

why u knw add katsina nd sokoto?

Your analysis is not correct. you didn't do your research very well in the south east. The PDP presidential flag bearer will win in all the south east states. but for the governorship its a fifty fifty situation in all the state. In Imo Rochas is popular so also is Ihedioha. In Abia APGA's flag bearer is a strong opponent for the ruling party. the same goes for all the states. RF Mbaka campaign for Buhari is well understood by the Igbos, so it won't affect the polls in the south east.

DDeliverer:
Nonsense..

Have you heard of flawless victory before??

GEJ will win each of the south eastern state convincingly well..

Can I shock you? GEJ will also win in kano, kastina and kaduna...Don't 4get I said so..

stop dreaming & face facts..

On point but @OP, I didn't know anti-GEJ was strongest in Abia state.

[s]

9jagirl4ree:
I have been watching the election campaigns from all party candidates very closely and I have come to the following conclusions using a mix of both qualitative/quantitative research i.e. observations from newspapers, TV stations, interviews carried out and feedback from selected sections of the electorate.

There are going to be over 10 presidential candidates but I think we can all agree that only 2 candidates have a good chance of winning the election; Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari (APC). This particular study relates to just the[b] South East of Nigeria[/b].

1. Imo State

The PDP has a strong base in Imo state and naturally, it will be expected that the party will inevitably win the election, however the present governor- Owelle Rochas Okorocha has proved to be a strong political leader that is well loved and respected across the whole state. A year ago, the PDP would have won the elections with a landslide victory but the Okorocha effect has totally affected that permutation.

Going by the popularity of Okorocha and his performance as governor in the state and also the fact that indigenes would want to ensure that they benefit significantly from the Federal government if the APC wins, the opposition party will win by a small margin

Projections: APC (52%): PDP (48%)

2. Enugu State

This state is controlled by the PDP and the outgoing governor Barrister Sullivan Chime is arguably one of the best performing governors in Nigeria. He has transformed Enugu state in all major sectors from education, industry, and the civil service. He embarked on daring infrastructural developments which as made Enugu one of the most vibrant and beautiful cities in the country. The state recently got recognition from the Guardian newspaper (UK) - where they predicted that it will be Nigeria's flagship city.

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/adam-smith-international-partner-zone/2015/jan/09/urbanisation-nigeria-rises-to-the-challenge

However, things have not been smooth for Barrister Chime, despite his achievements, he has faced interference in his government from the central PDP unit in Abuja under the command of Dr Jonathan. This reached an unbelievable level when his efforts to become a senator was recently truncated by Abuja. He is not happy and close sources indicate that he will not work for Jonathan's re-election.

Another major factor in enugu and indeed all of Ndigbo is RF Mbaka, his New year message where he lambasted the current administration has spread like wild fire and his message is resonating with the masses.

Based on these factors, it is predicted that the APC will win marginally

Projections: APC (51%) PDP (49%)



3. Anambra State

The case of Anambra is the most surprising of all SE states. Anambrians are noted for their intelligence, insularity and Igbo nationalistic idealism, they remain the only state who retain APGA as the state party. They recently voted in Governor Obiano, a man that has proved to be quite pragmatic and forward thinking. When he came on board, many Igbos thought he could champion Igbo nationalism but he has proved to be very smart and intelligent. Last week, he openly declared that Igbos are better in one Nigeria.

Sources from Anambra government say that Obiano is not supporting either candidates and will work with whoever wins. In the past, one would have expected Obiano to tow the line of his successor and openly support GEJ but he has decided to be neutral.

From a survey conducted in Anambra state, we call it evens

Projections: APC(50%) PDP (50%)

[/s]

Ewu even Joseph the dreamer faith no reach your own

DDeliverer:
Nonsense..

Have you heard of flawless victory before??

GEJ will win each of the south eastern state convincingly well..

Can I shock you? GEJ will also win in kano, kastina and kaduna...Don't 4get I said so..

indeed u need deliverance... is DAT u Igbo's dream?

OP i don't know for others but i can speak for obiano.Obiano supports jonathan in fact there is a gigantic bill board in borome junction which is boldly "WILLIE ENJORSES JONATHAN FOR SECOND TERM" and i stand firmly on this to declare your thesis wrong

What am i even saying we igbos love jonah to the bones so you should take your thesis and shove up where the sun doesn't shine

9jagirl4ree:
I have been watching the election campaigns from all party candidates very closely and I have come to the following conclusions using a mix of both qualitative/quantitative research i.e. observations from newspapers, TV stations, interviews carried out and feedback from selected sections of the electorate.

There are going to be over 10 presidential candidates but I think we can all agree that only 2 candidates have a good chance of winning the election; Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari (APC). This particular study relates to just the[b] South East of Nigeria[/b].

1. Imo State

The PDP has a strong base in Imo state and naturally, it will be expected that the party will inevitably win the election, however the present governor- Owelle Rochas Okorocha has proved to be a strong political leader that is well loved and respected across the whole state. A year ago, the PDP would have won the elections with a landslide victory but the Okorocha effect has totally affected that permutation.

Going by the popularity of Okorocha and his performance as governor in the state and also the fact that indigenes would want to ensure that they benefit significantly from the Federal government if the APC wins, the opposition party will win by a small margin

Projections: APC (52%): PDP (48%)

2. Enugu State

This state is controlled by the PDP and the outgoing governor Barrister Sullivan Chime is arguably one of the best performing governors in Nigeria. He has transformed Enugu state in all major sectors from education, industry, and the civil service. He embarked on daring infrastructural developments which as made Enugu one of the most vibrant and beautiful cities in the country. The state recently got recognition from the Guardian newspaper (UK) - where they predicted that it will be Nigeria's flagship city.

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/adam-smith-international-partner-zone/2015/jan/09/urbanisation-nigeria-rises-to-the-challenge

However, things have not been smooth for Barrister Chime, despite his achievements, he has faced interference in his government from the central PDP unit in Abuja under the command of Dr Jonathan. This reached an unbelievable level when his efforts to become a senator was recently truncated by Abuja. He is not happy and close sources indicate that he will not work for Jonathan's re-election.

Another major factor in enugu and indeed all of Ndigbo is RF Mbaka, his New year message where he lambasted the current administration has spread like wild fire and his message is resonating with the masses.

Based on these factors, it is predicted that the APC will win marginally

Projections: APC (51%) PDP (49%)



3. Anambra State

The case of Anambra is the most surprising of all SE states. Anambrians are noted for their intelligence, insularity and Igbo nationalistic idealism, they remain the only state who retain APGA as the state party. They recently voted in Governor Obiano, a man that has proved to be quite pragmatic and forward thinking. When he came on board, many Igbos thought he could champion Igbo nationalism but he has proved to be very smart and intelligent. Last week, he openly declared that Igbos are better in one Nigeria.

Sources from Anambra government say that Obiano is not supporting either candidates and will work with whoever wins. In the past, one would have expected Obiano to tow the line of his successor and openly support GEJ but he has decided to be neutral.

From a survey conducted in Anambra state, we call it evens

Projections: APC(50%) PDP (50%)

JOKE OF THE DAY

9jagirl4ree:
I have been watching the election campaigns from all party candidates very closely and I have come to the following conclusions using a mix of both qualitative/quantitative research i.e. observations from newspapers, TV stations, interviews carried out and feedback from selected sections of the electorate.

There are going to be over 10 presidential candidates but I think we can all agree that only 2 candidates have a good chance of winning the election; Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari (APC). This particular study relates to just the[b] South East of Nigeria[/b].

1. Imo State

The PDP has a strong base in Imo state and naturally, it will be expected that the party will inevitably win the election, however the present governor- Owelle Rochas Okorocha has proved to be a strong political leader that is well loved and respected across the whole state. A year ago, the PDP would have won the elections with a landslide victory but the Okorocha effect has totally affected that permutation.

Going by the popularity of Okorocha and his performance as governor in the state and also the fact that indigenes would want to ensure that they benefit significantly from the Federal government if the APC wins, the opposition party will win by a small margin

Projections: APC (52%): PDP (48%)

2. Enugu State

This state is controlled by the PDP and the outgoing governor Barrister Sullivan Chime is arguably one of the best performing governors in Nigeria. He has transformed Enugu state in all major sectors from education, industry, and the civil service. He embarked on daring infrastructural developments which as made Enugu one of the most vibrant and beautiful cities in the country. The state recently got recognition from the Guardian newspaper (UK) - where they predicted that it will be Nigeria's flagship city.

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/adam-smith-international-partner-zone/2015/jan/09/urbanisation-nigeria-rises-to-the-challenge

However, things have not been smooth for Barrister Chime, despite his achievements, he has faced interference in his government from the central PDP unit in Abuja under the command of Dr Jonathan. This reached an unbelievable level when his efforts to become a senator was recently truncated by Abuja. He is not happy and close sources indicate that he will not work for Jonathan's re-election.

Another major factor in enugu and indeed all of Ndigbo is RF Mbaka, his New year message where he lambasted the current administration has spread like wild fire and his message is resonating with the masses.

Based on these factors, it is predicted that the APC will win marginally

Projections: APC (51%) PDP (49%)



3. Anambra State

The case of Anambra is the most surprising of all SE states. Anambrians are noted for their intelligence, insularity and Igbo nationalistic idealism, they remain the only state who retain APGA as the state party. They recently voted in Governor Obiano, a man that has proved to be quite pragmatic and forward thinking. When he came on board, many Igbos thought he could champion Igbo nationalism but he has proved to be very smart and intelligent. Last week, he openly declared that Igbos are better in one Nigeria.

Sources from Anambra government say that Obiano is not supporting either candidates and will work with whoever wins. In the past, one would have expected Obiano to tow the line of his successor and openly support GEJ but he has decided to be neutral.

From a survey conducted in Anambra state, we call it evens

Projections: APC(50%) PDP (50%)

call urself a fool for d stupid analysis u psted here.I read a comment whr u threatened one guy of tkn his IP,pls dnt allow me to crack down on u.Gej.....2019

DDeliverer:
Nonsense..

Have you heard of flawless victory before??

GEJ will win each of the south eastern state convincingly well..

Can I shock you? GEJ will also win in kano, kastina and kaduna...Don't 4get I said so..

Comedian

APC is not winning Enugu. I'm from Enugu and a Buhari supporter but my people are too adamant in their GEJ support. Buhari will get above 25% but can't win there.

kITATITA:
APC is not winning Enugu. I'm from Enugu and a Buhari supporter but my people are too adamant in their GEJ support. Buhari will get above 25% but can't win there.

To avoid accusations APC will get 10% of SE SS Votes. Nothing can change that. NC Is sure to deliver 75% to PDP, while SW will give at least 60% to GEJ. A rational Lagosian will never vote for Affidavits in place in of certificate. The battle is in NW and NE. PDP is lookin good in Kano, Kebbi, Taraba, Kaduna, Gombe, and Bauchi

Amitex:


To avoid accusations APC will get 10% of SE SS Votes. Nothing can change that. NC Is sure to deliver 75% to PDP, while SW will give at least 60% to GEJ. A rational Lagosian will never vote for Affidavits in place in of certificate. The battle is in NW and NE. PDP is lookin good in Kano, Kebbi, Taraba, Kaduna, Gombe, and Bauchi

Biko na where this your analysis germinate from? GEJ is being pummelled everywhere and you bring your broken gong affidavit story and rational Lagosian up. I live and pay my tax in Lagos and I'm a rational voter and not voting GEJ

lies !!!
In your dreams will APC win PDP in the south east..
Not even in owerri will they get 25% votes.

ichidodo:
An igbo voting for Buhari is akin to a yoruba man voting IBB....We are better off burning our PVCs.

. Ur personaln thought.n I'm voting for GMB. QED

OP, SORRY, GO AND SLEEP, PDP WILL NT GET ANYTIN LESS THAN 95% IN ENUGU, EBONYI, ABIA STATE, MAYBE 90% IN ANAMBRA, 80% IN IMO. DAT NAME BUHARI DOESNT, I REPEAT DOESNT RING BELL IN SE..

GEJ will get almost 100% votes

You guys are yet to understand that most Igbos see GEJ as their son and GMB an enemy of Igbo progress.

mekadinho:
OP, SORRY, GO AND SLEEP, PDP WILL NT GET ANYTIN LESS THAN 95% IN ENUGU, EBONYI, ABIA STATE, MAYBE 90% IN ANAMBRA, 80% IN IMO. DAT NAME BUHARI DOESNT, I REPEAT DOESNT RING BELL IN SE..

Please edit it

GEJ will get almost 100% in all Igbo areas.

9jagirl4ree:
I have been watching the election campaigns from all party candidates very closely and I have come to the following conclusions using a mix of both qualitative/quantitative research i.e. observations from newspapers, TV stations, interviews carried out and feedback from selected sections of the electorate.

There are going to be over 10 presidential candidates but I think we can all agree that only 2 candidates have a good chance of winning the election; Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari (APC). This particular study relates to just the[b] South East of Nigeria[/b].

1. Imo State

The PDP has a strong base in Imo state and naturally, it will be expected that the party will inevitably win the election, however the present governor- Owelle Rochas Okorocha has proved to be a strong political leader that is well loved and respected across the whole state. A year ago, the PDP would have won the elections with a landslide victory but the Okorocha effect has totally affected that permutation.

Going by the popularity of Okorocha and his performance as governor in the state and also the fact that indigenes would want to ensure that they benefit significantly from the Federal government if the APC wins, the opposition party will win by a small margin

Projections: APC (52%): PDP (48%)

2. Enugu State

This state is controlled by the PDP and the outgoing governor Barrister Sullivan Chime is arguably one of the best performing governors in Nigeria. He has transformed Enugu state in all major sectors from education, industry, and the civil service. He embarked on daring infrastructural developments which as made Enugu one of the most vibrant and beautiful cities in the country. The state recently got recognition from the Guardian newspaper (UK) - where they predicted that it will be Nigeria's flagship city.

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/adam-smith-international-partner-zone/2015/jan/09/urbanisation-nigeria-rises-to-the-challenge

However, things have not been smooth for Barrister Chime, despite his achievements, he has faced interference in his government from the central PDP unit in Abuja under the command of Dr Jonathan. This reached an unbelievable level when his efforts to become a senator was recently truncated by Abuja. He is not happy and close sources indicate that he will not work for Jonathan's re-election.

Another major factor in enugu and indeed all of Ndigbo is RF Mbaka, his New year message where he lambasted the current administration has spread like wild fire and his message is resonating with the masses.

Based on these factors, it is predicted that the APC will win marginally

Projections: APC (51%) PDP (49%)



3. Anambra State

The case of Anambra is the most surprising of all SE states. Anambrians are noted for their intelligence, insularity and Igbo nationalistic idealism, they remain the only state who retain APGA as the state party. They recently voted in Governor Obiano, a man that has proved to be quite pragmatic and forward thinking. When he came on board, many Igbos thought he could champion Igbo nationalism but he has proved to be very smart and intelligent. Last week, he openly declared that Igbos are better in one Nigeria.

Sources from Anambra government say that Obiano is not supporting either candidates and will work with whoever wins. In the past, one would have expected Obiano to tow the line of his successor and openly support GEJ but he has decided to be neutral.

From a survey conducted in Anambra state, we call it evens

Projections: APC(50%) PDP (50%)

OP, with due respect...you are a lunatic, grade one.

What kind of crappy analysis is this

I have noticed that not one person has questioned the analysis in the first post, all I see are reactionary statements. These statements do not counter the scientific based projections outlined in the OP

I stand by the projections based on the outcome of a robust research in the SE

Watch out for Part 2...

Nice analysis, another angle. Don't quote me

BlackTechnology:


Please edit it

GEJ will get almost 100% in all Igbo areas.

HAHAHA...... MY DEAR, DAT OP HAS NEVER VISITED SE, NA TOO MUCH OF NAIRALAND DEY WORRY D HIM, ABI NA HER?

9jagirl4ree:
I have noticed that not one person has questioned the analysis in the first post, all I see are reactionary statements. These statements do not counter the scientific based projections outlined in the OP

I stand by the projections based on the outcome of a robust research in the SE

Watch out for Part 2...

God bless you, i am waiting for the part 2

The op is high on latrine odour. Certificateless general is dead on arrival in the southeast

Obiagelli:
Nice analysis, another angle. Don't quote me

Only if wishes were horses

gratiaeo:

Only if wishes were horses

I know say one person go still quote me.

Buhari would definitely win d election with a comfortable margin,but your analysis and projections are wrong.
-Anambra :PDP would win here, let's not deceive ourselves, but d turn out and margin would not be that massive.
-Enugu:despite fr.mbaka's wonderful prophesy, its still a win for pdp.My Enugu brethren av been too brainwashed to change their ways.
-Imo : this presents an interesting scenario.Okorocha would win d governorship but d presidential election comes first.Okorocha being a formidable and crafty politician would b d defining factor here. So for d presidency the race here is too close to call,i.e,cud swing either way.
Overall,despite whatever happens in d east,GMB wins overall 60-40 in the first ballot.