Kevin, Charlyn & Kimberly Associates, a United Kingdom based research and political risk consultancy firm, has stated that incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will win the 2015 presidential election with a margin of 13 per cent (probability).

The group, which used both ‘monkey survey’ and ‘Political Risk Index’ to forecast the Nigeria election, projected a Jonathan’s win if everything remains constant.

In a statement by Mr O.C Vince, the Vice President of the firm for West Africa, while addressing a press conference in Abuja, on Thursday, explained that the firm has no partisan interest in the outcome of the election which is left for the people of Nigeria to decide.

The company said it decided to conduct the survey because of the general global interest the Nigeria election has generated. “Many people around the world, including political leaders and investors are focusing on Nigeria to see how the process of democracy is managed,” he stated.

Mr Vince said the ruling PDP appears to be facing its toughest challenge in 16 years and hoped the efforts they have made will help deepen and strengthen democracy in Nigeria and enable the different contending parties manage their final push toward 2015.

He stated that “We randomly conducted a nationwide opinion poll focusing on the six geo-political regions of Nigeria: North-East, North-West, North-Central, South-West, South-East and South-South. The sampled population were asked three questions centre on human rights, the economy and security.

One of the questions stated that between Major-General Buhari and President Jonathan, who would best protect the fundamental human rights of Nigerians? While APC’s Buhari scored 30%, President Jonathan scored 70%.

The firm noted that the electoral map tilted more favourable towards President Jonathan in the South-West and middle belt, adding to his advantage in Niger Delta and South-East while Buhari did well in core north where he has large followership.

Another question stated that between the elections holding in February 14 as previously scheduled and March 28 as postponed, which date do you feel safer to participate in the presidential election? 35 % thinks the election should have been held on February 14 as scheduled while 65% thinks the March 28 new date is a safer and more secured. They believe INEC is now more prepared having issued more PVCs and as wells as tested the card readers.

On the question bothering on who would best grow the economy, while APC presidential candidate scored 42%, the PDP presidential candidate scored 58%.

The firm’s spokesman explained that its conclusion were reached in respect of the question ‘who would best protect your fundamental human rights’ by taking cognizance of the antecedents and past records of the two candidates, the past and current utterances of the candidates and how Nigerians of diverse gender, ethnicity, religion and social status perceive both candidates and how effectively both candidates has been marketed to the voting population.

The company said though the Buhari’s public relations team has done a tremendous job in repackaging him yet an overwhelming majority of Nigerians still view him as a divisive character.

“Majority of the population agrees that President Jonathan is tolerant and has the best temperament as a democratic president. They cited the signing of the Freedom of Information Bill by the president and his high tolerant of criticism as a rare quality for an African leader. Many, however, criticized President Jonathan’s public relations team for not doing enough to market his achievements which they said surpassed that of any former leader in recent history.

“We viewed Goodluck Jonathan as a favourite to win re-election based also on a number of factors even though the election will still be difficult to call. Our expectation of a Jonathan’s win was predicated on other several factors, chiefly, is the postponement of the election which has helped him comeback decisively into the race.

“The tepid supports of northern members of PDP seem to have ebbed. Many of his supporters, especially in the North, now feel safer to openly campaign for his victory. Governors Lamido and Babangida Aliyu are now vocally leading the campaign while the vice president is making major inroads in the North-East and North-West. The incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling PDP will still help Jonathan and the PDP.

“The electoral map, from indications, favours Jonathan. The support of Christian-majority and heavily populated South-West around Lagos backed by the Yoruba elders, traditional rulers and the youthful Odua Peoples Congress could be the decisive demographic factors in the election in the South-West.

“Jonathan won the South-West and middle belt handily in 2011. He has again reached out to the South western Yoruba community and brought them into the upper ranks of his campaign and potential administration, in a fence-mending political alliance. In contrast, Buhari and the APC appear to be now struggling in the South- West which hitherto would have been her turf.

“In addition, the APC has suffered more defections during the last few weeks suggesting a weakened coalition, hence the prospects of victory for PDP. The exit of inside detractors within the PDP like former President Obasanjo has enabled the party in the South-West to refocus and become more united.”

Despite the global fall in the oil price and devaluation of the naira, the firm said food prices had remained stable, an indication of the success of Jonathan’s diversification of the economy into Agriculture.

The firm also noted that the military had made significant gains against Boko-Haram in the North-West, thus bolstering President Jonathan’s image. The exoneration of the oil revenue management by the PWC audit has also put a lie to APC’s propaganda.

“The PDP is starting to look strong while Jonathan’s management of the economy is being better understood and appreciated. A Jonathan’s win will see a continuation of his transformation agenda in the economy and all other sectors which has witnessed significant improvement under his watch.

“A win for PDP will bolster investors’ confidence in the economy and sustain Nigerians position as and the largest economy in Africa. It is expected that Jonathan will implement the National Confab report which cardinal points are the main causes of friction in Nigeria. His win will also help restore stability in the volatile Niger Delta region where militants has threatened to disrupt oil production and exploration should Jonathan be unfairly forced out of office,” the firm noted.

clevvermind:
Even buhari knows that he will lose.

kasheemawo:
UK research indeed, OP are you also high?

Olaolufred:
pEOPLE dECIEVING pEOPLE (pdp)

Mynd44:
How come this UK based group has no website or mention on Google except on Nigerian politics?
In 2010, this same "organisation" dropped this

https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/NaijaExcel/conversations/topics/5610

please show us the website of this group or something about them apart from Nigerian elections..

Tell me another lie

melvinjames:
Kevin, Charlyn & Kimberly Associates, a United Kingdom based research and political risk consultancy firm, has stated that incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will win the 2015 presidential election with a margin of 13 per cent (probability).

The group, which used both ‘monkey survey’ and ‘Political Risk Index’ to forecast the Nigeria election, projected a Jonathan’s win if everything remains constant.

In a statement by Mr O.C Vince, the Vice President of the firm for West Africa, while addressing a press conference in Abuja, on Thursday, explained that the firm has no partisan interest in the outcome of the election which is left for the people of Nigeria to decide.

The company said it decided to conduct the survey because of the general global interest the Nigeria election has generated. “Many people around the world, including political leaders and investors are focusing on Nigeria to see how the process of democracy is managed,” he stated.

tycoon14:
UK Research Sponsored by GEJ.

Na today?

melvinjames:


Start preparing for the shock next week, to be forewarned is to be forearmed.

melvinjames:


I can't open the link you posted. Can you post another link from a more credible site rather than a closed yahoo group.

melvinjames:

Please contact the research firm with your grievances. Am only re-posting what I saw.

tycoon14:
UK Research Sponsored by GEJ.

Na today?

melvinjames:


Start preparing for the shock next week, to be forewarned is to be forearmed.

Olaolufred:


CAN YOU GIVE ME THE OFFICIAL WEBSITE ADDRESS OF Kevin, Charlyn & Kimberly Associates?

BIKO.

Mynd44:

These are screen shots from the site. You can also do a search and see if the said group has ever been mentioned anywhere else.
Here, it is said that the association is UK based. In 2010, it was said to be Lagos based.

Keep the lies coming

mrmetoo1:
Can anyone please explain what a monkey survey is?? This research company that has no profile anywhere?? No one from the company put their name on this research.

I'll say this, there's a company that conducts survey called "survey monkey". That I know this monkey survey just sounds funny to me. The person that wrote this just did a rush job to get something out there as some morale booster and I guess GEJ folks are happy even the same people will say these polls don't matter.

GEJ always winning invisible polls

melvinjames:


We should believe your yahoo group than The Tribune?

Can't anyone set up a yahoo yahoo group?

kestolove95:
Monkey survey for d zoologist

melvinjames:


bros I don't work for them. Send your queries to them via Tribune, thanks.

melvinjames:


bros I don't work for them. Send your queries to them via Tribune, thanks.

melvinjames:


Do you even know what a survey is, never mind a monkey survey.

mrmetoo1:


No I don't know what a survey is, please explain. Then when you're done, go ahead and explain what a monkey survey is, that's all I ask