In a timely analysis that pays attention to data and real but often ignored permutations, Kareem Amusat examines the chances of the leading governorship candidates in Oyo State

As the D-day knocks and the election is a question of days, the people of Oyo State have been bombarded with a lot of opinion polls on who is the next landlord at Agodi? It’s polls galore. One can predict that as the elections approach, there will be more of these “scientific” opinion polls to be circulated by politicians who are keen about winning the election at all costs.

However, as these politicians try to tilt their opinion polls in their favour, our people must not be deceived. They must be clearly educated by right data and analysis. The result of the 2011gubernatorial election in Oyo State is a good reference. It is a clear pointer to what the outcome of the 2015 gubernatorial election will be in Oyo State.

In that 2011 election, all the three leading candidates of 2015 gubernatorial election participated in that election. They are: Governor Abiola Ajimobi of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ANC) now All Progressives Congress (APC); Former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), now Labour Party as well as Senator Rashidi Ladoja of the same Accord Party.

Senator Teslim Folarin tactically supported Governor Ajimobi while Engr. Seyi Makinde did not participate at all in the 2011 gubernatorial elections. The pertinent question that will support or give the lie to the rash of “scientific opinion polls” rampart in the last one or two months, is what has changed between 2011 gubernatorial election and 2015 gubernatorial election in Oyo State?

The great difference is the emergence of Senator Teslim Folarin as the gubernatorial candidate of the PDP. With his emergence, his godfathers in the PDP, who worked closely with him to support the incumbent Governor Ajimobi in 2011 election are now solidly behind him in the PDP. Thus, a setback for Governor Ajimobi as the coalition that brought him has collapsed.

As Governor Ajimobi suffered political setback in Ibadanland especially in Ido, Ibadan North, Ibadan North West and Ibadan south East, one will recall that Senator Folarin, Chief Yekeen Adeojo, Senator Lekan Balogun and other PDP Chieftains worked for the success of Senator Ajimobi at the 2011 poll. Governor Ajimobi is also losing the coalition members in Oke Ogun. His benefactors have either resigned from active politics or are in Labour Party

Going by this development and the people’s perception of his government not having a human face, Governor Ajimobi’s stronghold has been reduced to Ibadan South West, Oyo East, Oyo West, Afijio, Iseyin, Akinyele Local Government due to General Buhari’s popularity among the Hausa Communities and Lagelu Local government.

Senator Ladoja has demonstrated in 2011 gubernatorial election result that he’s a man to beat in Ibadanland, where he garnered two hundred and seven thousand, three hundred and eight (207,308) votes. In other zones of the state, Ibarapa, Oyo, Ogbomosho, Oke-Ogun and Oyo, his performance were nothing but woeful. In other parts of Oyo, Senator Ladoja had less than 70,000 votes.

The present predicament of the Accord Party is the gale of defection by the aspirants, who failed to get the party’s ticket. Accord Party had two hundred and forty-one (241) aspirants majority of whom have left the party today.

As Accord party is trying to get over the defection of its loyalists, Makinde emerged the gubernatorial candidate of the social Democratic Party (SDP). Makinde is from Ibadan North East, the “Headquarters” of Accord Party. It will take a lot of efforts for the Accord Party not to lose voters to Makinde given his resources and philanthropy.

The Accord party’s stronghold remains shaky both in Egbeda, where PDP House of Representatives candidate have taken most Accord party members along with him to PDP and Ibadan north east, where he got the largest number of votes in both Ibadanland and Oyo State.

Accord Party had thirty-eight thousand, two hundred and eighty two (38,282) votes in the 2011 gubernatorial election result in Ibadan North East Local Government, thus it will be very difficult for the Accord Party to have a repeat of what it had in 2011 election in Ibadan. It is a known fact that Accord Party barely exists outside Ibadanland

The result of the 2011 gubernatorial election showed that former governor Alao-Akala of the PDP now Labour Party has a stronghold in Oke –Ogun, Ogbomosho and Ibarapa. His major advantage is the style of politics of Senator Folarin, who has not ventured out of Ibadan to directly woo the people of Oke Ogun and Ogbomosho. Rather, he leaves the job to PDP leaders in those areas. These leaders may not be able to go against the wishes of their people as one of them is flying the flag of Labour Party.

The Labour Party’s other advantage is the presence of Ibadan Politicians who had defected from the APC to Labour Party before the coming of Alao-Akala. The present Labour Party in Oyo State is a coalition of Oke-Ogun, Ogbomosho, Ibarapa and Ibadan. It may be difficult for other political parties to defeat Labour Party.

More than any other political party, Akala’s Labour Party, seems set to win the gubernatorial election in 2015. Will Boodaa Baayo enjoy an encore?

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/who-will-oyo-elect-as-its-new-governor-/205572/

lalasticlala, Seun

Ajimobi should take this.

Ajimobi one more time.

No vacancy in the APC controlled states for now

Ajimobi!!!

SAI LADOJA
.
.
AJIMOBI IS A LIAR
.
Where are the dividends of democracy he
promised us in Oyo-state?
. local governments’ election?....we voted ni....president did not choose him....he chose all the 33 lg chairmen
.
the only achievement ajimobi recorded in oke ogun is iseyin...others are neglected
.
AKALA IS A THIEF
.
FOLARIN IS A KILLER

I would have chosen Ajimobi, but i dont believe in power of incumbency anymore and surprises could spring up from anywhere just like the guy from Accord party that won a house of rep seat in lagos.. Nigeria's politics is a bit advanced now but Ajimobi should still be hopeful of breaking the jinx of oyo state.


Meanwhile we still celebrating baba's victory.... SAI BABA!!!!!!

Ajimobi ni o........APC ni oooooo.........Aji se bi Oyo laari.......the pace setter

People candidate should win..............

.

a pity...no buhari factor

I have a feeling that the Governorship polls will favour APC.

It is a great time to be an APC candidate.

The peoples choice

APC STRAIGHT...

Buhari of course.... Still on the wind of change!

APC!

Not because Ajimobi is better, but cos other popular candidates would split the votes of the people. Thus making the APC emerge with higher votes. Teslim, ladoja, and Akala would all split the votes. But Ajimobi would be unhurt cos of the power of incumbent. The forces against Him are not unified.

Politics is a game of numbers for those who care to listen. I kept shouting this to the TANoids. But they refused to listen cos they've been deluded from reasoning.

GEJ failed cos he had the wrong political advisers *you can quote me*. They gradually led Gej astray. I don't care if they were professors, they simply don't know their onion when it comes to politics.

Having said that APC wins it in OYO. Simple.

Question for the gods.

*I hope and pray GMB will be the change we're yearning for.

*Whoever say GEJ doesn't deserve commendation will realize he's wrong come 2019 general election

*The UK and US should be ready to work with Buhari or just leave us alone




What's Your Opinion On The Conduct Of The 2015 General Election?
www.nairaland.com/2228880/whats-opinion-conduct-2015-general#32208601


Nigeria Set For New Political Era; What Are Your Expectations?
www.nairaland.com/2229068/nigeria-set-new-political-era

If the governor performed as expected of him, give him another 4 years to consolidate on that.

BUT

If he didn't,


Kick HIM out irrespective of his party affiliation


We all want positive CHANGE

There are still some good elements in PDP and other parties.

The best candidate will win,Yorubas are now wiser.

#nomoreBabaAdedibu

Wetin concern us

Teslim Folarin

oyo state indigenes don't elect the same governor twice. personally, i think ajimobi's days are numbered.

No vacancy till 2019 "APC @ work"

lado

Ajimobi

Haha