This is a brief realistic overview of what each year in Buhari's tenure will look like. If you think the future will be brighter, give explanations.

Buhari's first year (May 29 2015 - May 29 2016) :
The budget which Buhari's administration will work with in his first year is currently in the national assembly and it is yet to be passed. It is a 4.4 trillion naira budget with over 80 percent going to recurrent expenditure and debt service. Capital expenditure is less than 800 billion naira. Buhari may be unable to work because they do not fit with his party's plans.

Buhari might decide to pass a supplementary budget but this is unlikely because revenue projections/forecasts for the fiscal year are very low because of the low price of crude oil.
The reality is that the economy and governance will be very very slow from now till the year ends.

Buhari's first year in office will be likely spent on fiscal planning for the next three years and cutting down on their unrealistic plans and also setting realistic ones. Some of the APCs social security plans and other economic plans will be carried over to the next year because they're not in the 2015 budget and due to lack of immediate funding.




Buhari's second year (May 29 2016- May 29 2017): After Buhari's first year has ended, he now has three years to do deliver and Nigerians are getting serious.
Let's forecast that oil prices picked up to about 70 dollars a barrel and the government came up with a plan to boost IGR by 30 percent. 30 percent is the most realistic figure. Please also note that there will be no borrowing to fund government expenditure. Buhari hates borrowing (with interest)
Going by the above projections (70 dollars a barrel, 30 percent IGR increase, no debt) our 2016 federal government budget will be projected to be at about 6 - 7 trillion naira (About 35 billion dollars).
Now, let's imagine that recurrent expenditure takes about 60 percent of the budget and capital expenditure takes the remaining 40 percent. (This is unrealistic but let's leave it that way)
What will 2.5 trillion naira (20 billion dollars) worth of capital/infrastructure projects do in Nigeria?
Buhari has a dilemma of choosing sectors which the funds will channeled to.
We need infrastructure in power, roads and transport, water and environment, education, housing and healthcare. 3 trillion naira won't scratch the surface.

Remember that labour and trade unions like ASUU, NMA etc will want their priorities sorted out first before others. Remember that geo-political zones will want federal projects to be sited in their zones, the south east will want their roads to be repaired and new ports and other infrastructure developed, the south south will claim that they produce the oil and demand special treatment or else they will resume militancy. The north east will claim that Boko Haram has destroyed their region and they need special attention etc. These demands need to be met, but there's a shortage of funds.




Year 3 (May 29 2017- May 29 2018) : Buhari now has two years left. Less than 30 percent of his promises has been fulfilled and Nigerians especially those from the south south and south east are calling for change.
Oil price has now regained momentum, reaching 90 dollars a barrel. However, due to low prices of crude oil for the previous years, there has been no savings in the excess crude account for the past two years. There has also been no money added to our foreign exchange reserves. The CBN needs billions of dollars to "defend our naira" and the reserves are depleting. Unemployment is still high, there's no electricity, no better healthcare, no water etc.
ASUU needs their 1 trillion naira and they're threatening to embark on an indefinite strike. The petroleum industry bill has still not been passed due to opposition from northern legislators and IOCs. There are now strong allegations of corruption against the minister of petroleum and the minister of finance due to lapses in Buhari's social security and poverty alleviation programs.

The year ends and nothing much is achieved because there were shortfalls in revenue projections and other factors peculiar to administration and governance in Nigeria hindered project execution and delivery.
Two years and nothing has changed.

December 2017: Buhari presents a budget of 7 trillion to the National assembly. Still 60 percent recurrent and 40 percent capital. What will 2 trillion naira worth of capital and infrastructure projects do to create an impact in order to salvage his image in all geo-politcal zones? Nothing much.
Critical infrastructure projects take time to develop and Buhari has just less than two years to fulfil his campaign promises and redeem his image. He has still not fulfilled more than 20 percent of his campaign promises. There's no money and no time to execute them. Private investment in Nigerian infrastructure is risky and initiating big PPP contracts take time.

Meanwhile, the Buhari administration and his die-hard supporters are trying hard to showcase the achievements of Buhari but Nigerians aren't buying it. Poverty rates are still high, unemployment is high and inflation is high. More university graduates emerge but no jobs are available.

Some beneficial programmes that were available under the GEJ administration like YouWin and SureP has been stopped to support Buhari's social security programmes.

The PDP and other opposition parties are unrelenting in their attacks against Buhari. They allege that his administration is corrupt, inefficient and ineffective.
Age is not on his side and the effects of the pressure start to take a toll on his health. He relents and let's Osinbajo and his key appointees to take charge of critical government activities while he relegates himself to the background.

His Last Year (May 29 2018- May 29 2019): Its an election year, political activities heat up the polity and administration has been relegated to the background. Buhari clocks 76 this year and there are rumors that he won't be seeking reelection due to his age and his health.
Nigerians are not impressed with his extremely poor performance as president and he's likely to lose in a free and fair election.
The north wants one of their own to remain in power for the next four years and they are aware of Buhari's slim chances of winning. Disagreements between northern and southern politicians heats up the polity.
Party conventions and likely presidential candidates and campaigns officially kick-off.


Osinbajo presents a budget 6 trillion to the National Assembly. However, due to politicking and the elections, the passing of the budget is being delayed.
Nigerians are no longer concerned about Buhari's government and due to security concerns, investments and investors are wary of investing till the elections are over..

The elections are conducted........

He has already told his blind followers to expect no magic ,you didn't factor in biological factors like the effect of ageing, effect of stress and fatigue of office.
But I am predicting he will spend half of the 4 years trying to settle internal squabbles between ACN, CPC, ANPP,former PDP decampees over sharing of national assembly positions, ministerial posts etc that is if the looming fight between Amaechi bloc and Tinubu bloc doesn't set the party on fire now that Amaechi ' eyes are getting clearer.

I see sweetguy25 changing his NL moniker to bitterguy29 by 2019.

Buhari hasn't been sworn in and we are already analysing or is it overviewing what his tenure would look like.
Even though i am not one of his supporters, I am of the opinion that we should just wait and see what he has to offer Nigerians. Nothing is impossible....

What kind of ldiot sits down and writes such a garbage analysis of what someone else will do in the next 4 years and even dares call it realistic :/

And why am I not surprised that your wet dream here supposedly ends with Buhari failing

Don't worry, you will see reality when it hits you in the face just like it did on March 30

I didn't read you op..but certainly your leader will be in jail too

.

Lets pray and hope buhari succeed because If Buhari fails Nigeria fails too

Allow him to take over first.
'You are jumping the gun'!

Spot on, and need I add, conveniently realistic conjectures here-especially with the vicissitudes of a political environment, and volatile oil market. Like I have always remarked in conversations with colleagues and friends, quite a sizeable portion of the populace seems sold on the narrative of Nigeria as an overtly rich country capable of catering and providing limitless succour to their urges and desires. At the risk of the pessimistic label, in truth, the country is poor- it’s an import driven mono-economy, with an average production output of 17.42 bbl/day per 1,000 people-see Oil Nations production data chart, a well institutionalized recurrent bill, rent seeking and allocation dependent federating units, and a near non-existent real sector. Besides, the present projection is hinged on the most obliging of socio-political relationships, an overtly optimistic scenario, given the palpable heightened tensions in relations between various power blocs and interest groups in the polity.

The worry is really not with these challenges, but with the possibility of a pressured Buhari/APC led government, tethering to scapegoating the opposition, as cause of their inability to deliver on the welfare programs, sold to curry votes. That sceptre may be titillating to their staunch supporters-the most naive and cultic followership, and some with an axe to grind, but it’s still under this delusion of omnipotence, and a complimentary panoply of resources for execution, even in the most fascist and bellend of societies. It’s that prospect that earns my worry, especially worse for a heavily fractured and politicized polity like Nigeria, with far-reaching consequences, such mob catering missteps are wont to be interpreted, and the complementary reactionary forces that respond to such gestures.

The political will to engage these realities, with the possibility of a simultaneous shoring of revenue earnings, and the slashing of recurrent bills, would require a very strong citizenry buy in, even for the most homogenous of polities. Increase in taxations, borrowings, privatisations, public sector job cuts, renegotiated wages, and a long term real sector seeding, would be very bitter pills, majority Nigerian social groups, labour unions, etc., would be unwilling to swallow in the short term, given the messianic construct of Buhari, seared in the deafening propaganda of the past months. Ergo, the circus show of disappointments, and frenzied ritual of elections, a slush of phantom electioneering promises would resume, and as they say the rest is history.

To think of the fact that Nigeria to some extent belongs to some cabals who he will spend some time fighting or appease because of his government policies are obvious.
Buhari should just un bundle this country through regionalism. let each zone provide for them self eg roads, power and infrasture and leave only security for federal govt, that way people will no longer blame him for their backwardness.

Haters sha but d old man had spoken nau.
"Don't expect magic from me"- Buhari (2015).

ewooooo

is dat so?

OP had better sit down and write how is miserable life might end

Nigeria shall be great.

Sweetguy25:

note that there will be no borrowing to fund government expenditure. Buhari hates borrowing (with interest)
.

so He borrowed the money He obtained his presidential form because he does not have to pay back with interest?

nzeobi:
To think of the fact that Nigeria to some extent belongs to some cabals who he will spend some time fighting or appease because of his government policies are obvious.
Buhari should just un bundle this country through regionalism. let each zone provide for them self eg roads, power and infrasture and leave only security for federal govt, that way people will no longer blame him for their backwardness.

nd how many zones do you think will survive that?

baybeeboi:

nd how many zones do you think will survive that?

Nigeria has practised it before and survived so why won't they survive now.
At the initial stage they will be issues but with time and the right people in the right places things will change for good cos the government will be more accountable and will maximize their regions potentials be it agriculture, trade and commerce ,oil and gas and solid minerals

nzeobi:

Nigeria has practised it before and survived so why won't they survive now.
At the initial stage they will be issues but with time and the right people in the right places things will change for good cos the government will be more accountable and will maximize their regions potentials be it agriculture, trade and commerce ,oil and gas and solid minerals

and the masses go hear am

Some people are just certified haters... E go shock una next elections Na kowa go carry second PDP will be so irrelevant... Awon oniranu...

kettykin:
He has already told his blind followers to expect no magic ,you didn't factor in biological factors like the effect of ageing, effect of stress and fatigue of office.
But I am predicting he will spend half of the 4 years trying to settle internal squabbles between ACN, CPC, ANPP,former PDP decampees over sharing of national assembly positions, ministerial posts etc that is if the looming fight between Amaechi bloc and Tinubu bloc doesn't set the party on fire now that Amaechi ' eyes are getting clearer.

Lol. I included the biological factors in the third year.
Also, i don't really believe there will be internal squabbles within the APC in the next four years.

He needs to collect as much money as he can from those looters this year.if he can recover at least 5trillion which is realistic,am sure he can do something with that for ASUU and nma and also part of it for the social welfare stuff
But again don't expect miracles first year,he will be clueless a little

Op why are you wasting precious time in stating the obvious? The only plan Buhari has for Nigeria is to return power to the north, and that he has accomplished.

baybeeboi:
and the masses go hear am

Nigeria was practising this method and it was perfectly working until oil was found in the ND and out of jealousy, the military govt stopped it believing people with oil will grow and become more powerful and may even secede.
Its the best just that some nigerians are lazy and wants the status quo

One sure thing is that to get this power from apc will be hard cos while western media will be shielding them from criticism, the northern elements will be on ground with violent intimidation of opposition. This criminals making up the government will return us to obj's electoral days.

razavi:
Spot on, and need I add, conveniently realistic conjectures here-especially with the vicissitudes of a political environment, and volatile oil market. Like I have always remarked in conversations with colleagues and friends, quite a sizeable portion of the populace seems sold on the narrative of Nigeria as an overtly rich country capable of catering and providing limitless succour to their urges and desires. At the risk of the pessimistic label, in truth, the country is poor- it’s an import driven mono-economy, with an average production output of 17.42 bbl/day per 1,000 people-see Oil Nations production data chart, a well institutionalized recurrent bill, rent seeking and allocation dependent federating units, and a near non-existent real sector. Besides, the present projection is hinged on the most obliging of socio-political relationships, an overtly optimistic scenario, given the palpable heightened tensions in relations between various power blocs and interest groups in the polity.

The worry is really not with these challenges, but with the possibility of a pressured Buhari/APC led government, tethering to scapegoating the opposition, as cause of their inability to deliver on the welfare programs, sold to curry votes. That sceptre may be titillating to their staunch supporters-the most naive and cultic followership, and some with an axe to grind, but it’s still under this delusion of omnipotence, and a complimentary panoply of resources for execution, even in the most fascist and bellend of societies. It’s that prospect that earns my worry, especially worse for a heavily fractured and politicized polity like Nigeria, with far-reaching consequences, such mob catering missteps are wont to be interpreted, and the complementary reactionary forces that respond to such gestures.

The political will to engage these realities, with the possibility of a simultaneous shoring of revenue earnings, and the slashing of recurrent bills, would require a very strong citizenry buy in, even for the most homogenous of polities. Increase in taxations, borrowings, privatisations, public sector job cuts, renegotiated wages, and a long term real sector seeding, would be very bitter pills, majority Nigerian social groups, labour unions, etc., would be unwilling to swallow in the short term, given the messianic construct of Buhari, seared in the deafening propaganda of the past months. Ergo, the circus show of disappointments, and frenzied ritual of elections, a slush of phantom electioneering promises would resume, and as they say the rest is history.

Easy with the English bro. Lol

I'm happy you acknowledged the factors that were used to predict the outcomes.

To be fair to Buhari, I assumed that the security situation in the country (especially the north east) will be over by next year. I also assumed that militancy will not return to the Niger Delta region.

baybeeboi:

so He borrowed the money He obtained his presidential form because he does not have to pay back with interest?

Hardcore Muslims don't like borrowing with interest.
Also, Buhari is of the opinion that Nigeria shouldn't be borrowing money because we have enough money and it is being stolen.

The biggest mistake apc made was to create the impression that Nigeria is rich that coruption is the major factor hindering smooth circulation of resources. Waiting to see how they will save 3 trillion naira per annum from coruption. Their eyes will soon clear out when they descover that Nigeria is actually a poor country. Only then will they realise that governance is not by mouth.

nzeobi:

Nigeria was practising this method and it was perfectly working until oil was found in the ND and out of jealousy, the military govt stopped it believing people with oil will grow and become more powerful and may even secede.
Its the best just that some nigerians are lazy and wants the status quo

that's it.
The problem of oil in some states.
That's Nigeria's Major problem

nzeobi:
To think of the fact that Nigeria to some extent belongs to some cabals who he will spend some time fighting or appease because of his government policies are obvious.
Buhari should just un bundle this country through regionalism. let each zone provide for them self eg roads, power and infrasture and leave only security for federal govt, that way people will no longer blame him for their backwardness.

Unbundling the country won't be an option for Buhari because of strong opposition from his northern zone. They need oil money to survive more than the others.

Sweetguy25:


Hardcore Muslims don't like borrowing with interest.
Also, Buhari is of the opinion that Nigeria shouldn't be borrowing money because we have enough money and it is being stolen.

Nigeria just can't stand not borrowing.
We are not there yet.
Am sure even Buhari knows that

Sweetguy25:


Unbundling the country won't be an option for Buhari because of strong opposition from his northern zone. They need oil money to survive more than the others.

That's the problem but northerners should be made to understand that there was life before oil and there will be life without oil