Nigeria’s economy under threat as debts hit N11tr
May 6, 2015
Written by SIMEON EBULU, Group Business Editor


The growing profile of Nigeria’s debt has become a source of concern, given the Federal Government’s penchant to add to its stock. The latest addition of N473 billion, has once again opened the floodgate of the spiral rise, with its attendant consequences, reports SIMEON EBULU, Group Business Editor

FEAR may well be the word to describe the state of Nigeria’s debt profile, hovering at N11.24 trillion as at December 31, 2014 and still rising.

The level which the nation’s debt overhang has attained is like a death-knell. Yet it keeps climbing.

The revelation by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Nweala, that the Federal Government has borrowed N473 billion in the first quarter of this year to execute the 2015 National Budget, is another clear case of one-more borrowing too many, so to speak.

Dr. Okonjo-Iweala said yesterday that of the N882 billon budgetary provision for borrowing, the Federal Government had already accessed N473 billion to fund Recurrent Expenditure, such as salaries and other overheads. The obvious reason for this development, she stressed, is the 50 per cent decline in the spot market of crude prices .which has inadvertently resulted in a cash crunch for the country.

To remain focused on keeping the economy stable and the government running, the government has embarked on “front-loaded borrowing programme to manage the cash crunch in the economy,” she said.

Nigeria’s borrowing profile from independence, is a study in itself. Going by the data available to The Nation, there appears to be more questions than answers when it comes to x-raying how the nation arrived at this point in time, where nothing gets done unless it is powered by external revenue sources, rather than internally generated funds, or revenues earned from known government sources, such as taxes, oil and non-oil exports.

The hint that Nigeria would go a borrowing again, was given by Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala in far- away America in April during the last International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank Group Spring meetings in Washington DC, United States (U.S.).

On prospects of further borrowing, she said: “Government is considering and in fact taking steps to actualise this with the World Bank Group and the African Development Bank (AfDB).” The other option of tapping the capital markets would be left for the incoming government. She said the government decided to look outside the nation’s shores for the next round of borrowing because it has reached, and almost exceeded taking the ceiling for local debts.

Mrs. Okonjo-Iweala said: “Our borrowing strategy is very prudent, and what we will do is that we have a lot of domestic borrowing than we want, so we are trying to switch and have a little more of external borrowing, but by drawing heavily on the multilateral institutions. So we will be going to the World Bank and the AfDB, and we will also look into the markets. But for the multilaterals, we’ve already embarked on discussions.”

Her disclosure that N473 billion has been borrowed is a confirmation that the proposal has eventually been actualised.

In its 2014 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), the nation also adopted a subsisting debt management strategy as captured in the approved Nigeria’s Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS), for 2012-2015, which seeks to achieve an optimal mix in the debt portfolio of 60:40 for domestic and external debts respectively as against the current mix of 83:17 through a gradual substitution of relatively more expensive domestic borrowing with cheaper external financing. Thus, the 2014 DSA has already incorporated government’s policy objective of reducing the overall cost of government borrowing at an acceptable level of risks. This may have informed the minister’s statement of government’s preference for approaching multilateral agencies.

The objective of the 2014 DSA is to assess the country’s capacity to finance its projects/programmes and service its debt obligations, without undue large adjustments that may compromise its macroeconomic stability, overall growth and development.

The government’s avowed confidence that it can continue to borrow on the argument that it falls within a safe threshold, is punctured when examined under an uncertain economic regime, as being faced by Nigeria. Even the government admitted this by its own record. It underlined the risks inherent on its path.

“The pessimistic scenario ( where Nigeria is presently), assumes a reduction in the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), increase in the rate of inflation, decline in revenue accruing to the Federal Government as a result of a fall in crude oil prices, deterioration in fiscal deficit and current balance, amongst others. Unlike in the previous years, which made pessimistic scenario revenue-specific, this years DSA considered deterioration in a broad range of macroeconomic indicators and variables that could impact negatively on the debt portfolio,” the sustainability analysis annual report said.

Although the results indicate that the country will still remain at a low risk of debt distress under the pessimistic scenario, it also shows a rising trend for all the debt indicators throughout the projection period. This means that a prolonged deterioration in one or two of the variables could increase the risk of debt sustainability.

The growing concern over the country’s debt overhang has been on the front burner for years, but often times, government officials have always argued that the nation’s debt level has not gone out of a safe trajectory. However, the lid over this confidence margin, appears to be weakening and increasingly contested.

A lecturer at the Pan Atlantic University, Lagos, Dr. Austin Nweze, pointed out a grave danger in accumulating excessive foreign debts as such would place undue burden on future generations, especially if the loans are not channeled into capital projects.

He said that the danger lies ahead for the economy, should the existing level of borrowing from big nations continue, which could make the country to depend on lending nations.

Nweze, however, said that there is nothing wrong in borrowing provided the funds are well utilised or invested in the provision of infrastructure.

According to him, the fall in oil prices has reduced revenue receipts, forcing the government to look for money to run the economy.

He urged the government not to leave behind a heavy foreign debt burden for the present and unborn generations. He cautioned that Nigeria, already under a heavy burden of foreign debts could be in great danger.



He urged the ruling class and the older generations to set good example and educate the coming generations for a better and secured future. According to him, such example should be set by not accumulating debt for future generations to inherit.

He urged the government to invest borrowed money in projects that will benefit the economy, instead of consuming the money.

Dr. Isaac Nwaogwugwu, a lecturer at Department of Economics, University of Lagos, said there is no way we are going to finance capital budget without borrowing.

He said: “That is why the allocation to capital account or expenditure is very small unless the government says it not ready to invest or provide for the future then it’s going to borrow.

“If government is committed to developmental issues there is no way it can run away from that? So, the volume of borrowed amount, or our debt stock wouldn’t matter so much. They can always try to cut down what they have borrowing and not that they can’t borrow.”



Leakages



Nwaogwugwu went on: “The danger on borrowing lies on fiscal leakages. If government can block leakages, that will be fine and that is the task for the new government, though the president-elect will find his hands tight on many issues.

“We can’t run away from borrowing but all we have to do is to ensure that we block all leakages. All we have to do is that we become bold enough to address some fiscal issues involved in recurrent spending. Many things we spend on recurrent expenditures are simply used to maintain some people who run government.



Funds not tied to

specific projects



“That issue started under former President Olusegun Obasanjo. If you look at the letter which Soludo (the former Central Bank of Nigeria Governor) wrote when he was talking about the Jonathan administration and how he mismanaged the economy, he raised the issue of using the budget to finance consumption expenditure.

“Basically, Soludo called the budget under President Jonathan a consumption appropraition. In as much as I agree with Soludo totally, I also hold him accountable for some of the mistakes. It was when Obasanjo was in the office that Soludo was the CBN Governor, before Sanusi Lamido, took over with this minister of state for finance, who replaced Okonjo-Iweala . “It was after that we borrowed money, they called it capital receipt and we used that money to pay salaries and wages; we used that money for recurrent expenditure. We borrowed money and we don’t tie it to capital projects. That is one of the biggest issue and where the dangers lie. Such loans must be tied to the budget and if we don’t, we’ll be mortgaging the future of Nigerians.



The way out



Nwaogwugwu said: “We have to be fiscally discipline. We saw the Senate pass the bill; we saw the House of Representatives pass the bill and what did we see? The budget has increased. It has gone up to N4.5 trillion. But, what we discovered that National Assembly increased spending and mark up expenditure on things that might not be necessary. That has always been the problem. If the National Assembly can look at the budget critically and say, ‘we don’t need this; we don’t need that; let us start with their own remuneration; begin to cut them down, look at how much they are collecting’.

“Look at the severance allowances… unless you cut these down, there is no way out. You look at the state bureaucrat today; the havoc they have caused to the economy is huge. Look at the monetisation policy of Obasanjo, they have abandoned it completely. Unless we have a National Assembly that is bold enough to say, ‘lets block this and that’, then we will move forward. The way out is that those we have elected should block all leakages. If the politicians do the right thing we won’t have any problem.

http://thenationonlineng.net/new/nigerias-economy-under-threat-as-debts-hit-n11tr/

That's the more reason why GMB must leave no stone unturned in recovering stolen funds. #No mercy#

The economy will soon bleed to death from the monumental waste that is perpetrated by okonjo wahala.What of the excess crude accout and the sovereign wealth fund,have they been depleted,this woman has succeded in deceiving Nigerians.

APC making series of 'I will fail' comments to have ready excuses to justify their imminent failure.




A barren woman will always blame a late marriage for her childlessness.

Even the biggest economies borrow. So, this is no big deal. so far it is well managed.
By the way, Since change has come, we should hope that the debts will be paid easily especially if the monies stolen by public office holders are regained
#lobatan

Rich oil country borrowing

They saw it happening. When it was consuming us they rebased our economy, using convulated grammer. Good that they were fired.
I wonder what drugs this Government was on when they asked us to allow them TRANSFORM us from wealthy to Poor and now to PAUPERS.
KAI Okonji-Iweala.

Should jonathan in connivance with okonjo be given the green light to milk the nation dry just because he conceded to an election he obviously lost and congratulated the winner? No, I don't think so.

GMB and the APC have been crying out about jonathan's steals and economy ruins but some pathetic heads think they should shut up and allow nigeria plunge into more problems just coz they desperately want the APC to fail.

This supporters of impunity both online and offline are the nation's worst enemies. They'd rather see nigeria burn than progress. I think a lengthy jail term or outright execution of this set will do this country a world of good!

Until secession which I believe every region is prepared for right now, nigeria remains your country as well as mine. crimes and perpetrators should be condemned in strong terms by all.

I pray and hope buhari succeeds in bringing corrupt politicians to book and recovers stolen funds and institutions, 50% recovery is more than enough seff. Cant wait!

The present admin wants to empty the purse before the go but God pass them

Am not suprise to hear that of a goverment that proposed for $1billion dollar loan at a go

This Okonjo woman must be jailed.

Okonjo bought-out our debt,Nigerians and the world clapped for her as an achievement
Now, she has brought us more debt. The world and Nigeria must condemn her as a failure.
She got award for buying-out debt
She should be punished for putting us into more debt.

Gov. Rotimi Amaechi was the first expose the bad condition of the economy followed by Sanusi, then I remember that Jonathan followers accused them of blowing false alarm, and Okonjo Iweala has came out to lie to the nation severally that the economy was growing. Now we know that Jonathan government has offered Nigeria nothing than to plunge the country into the ditch of indebtedness. Jonathan second term would have been a disaster.

Jonathan from surplus(foreign reserve) and oil boom price(more than $100 per barrel) to borrowing. I conclude that your are the most corrupt President.
Stealing is not corruption
Corruption is not stealing.
If you are prudent enough like Joseph in the bible people should be coming for help from us.

coputa:
The economy will soon bleed to death from the monumental waste that is perpetrated by okonjo wahala.What of the excess crude accout and the sovereign wealth fund,have they been depleted,this woman has succeded in deceiving Nigerians.

Now that oil prices have fallen, it's hilarious seeing people asking for recourse to the savings. Just a few months ago when oil prices were still high, the short-sighted demands of the opposition was that we should have no such savings.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-09-30/nigeria-s-opposition-wants-to-scrap-sovereign-oil-funds

Now that our economic illiteracy is bearing fruit, the person who was warning about the need for fiscal prudence and savings is receiving abuse whilst the people who wanted it depleted are seeking to gain political capital from a relative lack of savings. You people are dolts.

Why won't they be in debt when all our money is spent on frivolities such as cars, mansions, aristos and other vanities of life. May God continue to punish Jonathan & his cohorts coz they really ruined our economy with their stealing is not corruption bu.llshit. Please help us O God

Madam "Paper Economy" said Nigeria is not broke. Why the debt? I thought GEJ-led government is performing well.

Meanwhile In other news, WHO HAS SEEN DAME PATIENCE JONATHAN?

Chai!!! this goverment have suck naija dry

Wey GEJ role model dem

Even china america dhe owe debts
So nufin so special abt dis news
Money was used for developmental projects
Only dat u all fail to accept dat he worked very hard for dis country

Say no to "change"
Say yes to transformation

If them like make dem sell the country, na dem sabi

God help Nigeria

I have not been comfortable on reading that the FG borrowed money to pay wages and salaries of workers. This is sad and a shame. Saner countries borrow to fund developmental project, ours is to consume and loot. One of our challenges in this country has been fiscal indiscipline, and it is appearing like we aren't getting better. Jonathan administration with due respect has done little or nothing to better the situation, and the APC program is more of consumption than long term development. Truth must be said, we are in a dire situation. The incoming administration have lots of work to do.

America is indebted to China.
Nigeria is no exception to being in debt

We don hear

Atmmachine:
J

Bro J

Virtually all states and the federal government are struggling to meet their financial obligations. Yet they said Nigeria is the fastest growing economy in Africa under their leadership.
A growth that doesn't reflect on the masses, that doesn't reflect on our roads, that makes us generate 2800MW of electricity today, that we can't feel in the aviation sector, that makes a dollar cost over 200 naira.
That is the type of growth they have given us.

The third richest country in Africa is borrowing money,well there are three questions i want to ask

(1)Who is borrowing the money.
(2)Who is the lender.
(3)What are the using the money to do to benefit the masses.
Somebody said''An aid from a rich Country to a poor Country is an aid from the poor people in the rich Country to the rich people in the poor country"but in this case Nigeria is not poor

Gbese re oooo[b][/b]

Nothing to fear. Government being short of funds doesn't mean that the economy is in a terrible shape.

#BabaOneChance is a magician.
Sure He'll tackle it in 2days.

Na small e remain GEJ & his co travellers would have sell this country, thank God GMB is coming to the rescue.