omenka:
Yes I did. So what?? I'm kinda confused here. What necessitated the geometric rise in subsidy expenditure in an election year Was there a corresponding percentage rise in consumption/demand of the products??

Some of you really do sound like very ignorant kids. All through history, we never paid that much, all of a sudden after jonathan became the president, the amount went over the roof and you imagine no one should ask questions.

Is that how you imagine you would run your Biafra if it comes to fruition?? Are you folks even thinking at all??

Do you propose Buhari maintains subsidy on fuel oor scrap it?

I really don't know if its poverty that doesn't allow most of Nigerians from comprehending simple English. What is the different between what Osinbajo $60b and Iweala $63b figure?.Did Osinbajo said JEG incurred all the debts?.Infact,its even a shame that of all the $63b Nigeria is owing since 1960 with so many different administrations, JEG only incurred $21b out of it despite the oil prize boom he enjoyed. that means JEG tenure was just a waste in the history of this nation.

This woman should pls respect herself, please. She has been involved in this lying game all this while. All this cover up will not help her, they have all mess the entire Nation. She is a failure!!

4Play:


I agree it's not cheap but the position would be even worse had we, as the National Assembly suggested to NOI, taken on more external debt. Naira would have depreciated quicker due to the burden of servicing dollar denominated debts.

A fall in exchange rates works in our favour as I have already pointed out as our revenue is mainly dollar denominated. Further, a fall in exchange rates which translates to higher domestic inflation inflates away the real value of Naira denominated debt. At 9% annual inflation, a 100 billion Naira 10 year bond would be, if my maths is correct, 42 billion Naira in real terms when the principal is due in 10 years time

I completely disagree with your suggestion that borrowing in a foreign currency would be more serviceable than borrowing in Naira. You will be hard pressed to find examples of a sovereign issuer in its own currency that has had a crisis arising from its debt. We just barely escaped our external debt burden in the mid-2000s after having to endure SAP in the 80s because of it. We need to learn from our history.

You have not backed up your opinion with evidence. It all depends on the terms of the loan. Like I pointed out with figures over the last 4 years and indeed longer exchange rates have been stable and we re borrowing at 13% now if you get a dollar denominated loan whether or not it is cheaper depends on ; the interest rate,your dollar revenue and or the performance of the dollar. It is not an absolute given as you are trying to suggest. Certainly taking the last 10 years or so for reference. Borrowing 91 day paper at 13% in naira is a lot more expensive than World Bank loans in dollars at under 5%
As a matter of fact there was a period in 2006-2008 when the dollar headed south

It is not true that a fall in exchange rate works in your favour you will simply have to pay more to borrow locally as is ALREADY HAPPENING. Those who lend to the government are not stupid.They employ very smart actuaries to work for them.

just unbelievable! Nigerians should not be suffering this much. i say gather all these ministers and politicians, assess what they have stolen, get Nigeria's money back from the corrupt ones. don't spare their families, friends and sycophantic associates (even the ones on NL). seize their non-primary homes and other assets. no need to even put them in jail. add a fine of 50% to what they've stolen.

Sunnybobo3:


Were you not one if those that supported the occupy Ojota protests?

Sir, Govt claimed they needed to free up funds from the subsidy removal to utilise in other areas....abi?

The truth: If they cannot efficiently manage subsidies and helplessly allow the so called CABAL ( who eat and drink with them) to steal subsidy monies then automatically the money freed up will also be hijacked by another set of cabal!

I remember vividly , all the promises made when the price was raised to 87 / litres how many of those promises were fulfilled?

See below ;

[url][/url]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVxxdvxWVnw[url][/url]

The problem is not the subsidy or the removal but a weak, corrupt and very incompetent government!

She's been in charge for about 10 of the last 16 years, I think. Her huge cheeks are full of lies. Yeye woman. SMH

Koroaso:


Impressive....so the domestic debts as u listed are from financial houses,bonds,contractors) and these financial institutions are have their structures and assets in dollar equivalents and some of them have their portfolios diversified with stocks,equities and bla bla outside the country just in case the economy collapses they are secure......so directly or indirectly we owe 60billion.
your point is we owe some to a lesser evil but at the end of the day........we are in the hole to the tune of 60billion dollars.

When obasanjo left why didnt we owe so much

Do yoy agree with me that this current administration is a very wasteful one??

hahahaha!
hold on don't start
1.how much was the debt both domestic and external at the end of obj tenure.
just guess!


2007=$22billion
2008=$23.7billion
2009=$29billion
2010=>$30billion
excetera and excetera

inflation na bad thing!

omonnakoda:
You have not backed up your opinion with evidence. It all depends on the terms of the loan. Like I pointed out with figures over the last 4 years and indeed longer exchange rates have been stable and we re borrowing at 13% now if you get a dollar denominated loan whether or not it is cheaper depends on ; the interest rate,your dollar revenue and or the performance of the dollar. It is not an absolute given as you are trying to suggest. Certainly taking the last 10 years or so for reference. Borrowing 91 day paper at 13% in naira is a lot more expensive than World Bank loans in dollars at under 5%
As a matter of fact there was a period in 2006-2008 when the dollar headed south

It is not true that a fall in exchange rate works in your favour you will simply have to pay more to borrow locally as is ALREADY HAPPENING. Those who lend to the government are not stupid.They employ very smart actuaries to work for them.

You are right.

4play dey fall my hand here with his analysis

i read the first 4 lines of her "speech" o is name calling and i scrolled down

same old "power point" gibberish but name blaming
Ngozi you are a coward
Own up and face that you are a failure if you had any dignity you would have resigned instead of soiling your name in the scandal that will unfold

we hear you received commission on the debt relief you were championing under Obasanjo

what about the 20 billion dollars that Sanusi blew the whistle on ad he was hounded out of office with apologists saying he was boko haram.

save your meaningless words for the tribalism, the easily impressed and gullible.

they say you can fool the people sometimes you cant fool the peple ll the time..

you are given awards faraway while your country is in a standstill over bogus fraudulent issues concerning you and fuel marketers...

i am so glad you are history...we are tired of hearing your empty excuses and lies..good riddance

Olaone1:


You are right.

4play dey fall my hand here

In general terms he is right that it is better to borrow in your own currency BUT it depends............. it is not always so

omonnakoda:
In general terms he is right that it is better to borrow in your own currency BUT it depends............. it is not always so

In specific terms, it depends. Borrowing at 13% when you can approach foreign lenders at 5% is wrong.

He should have added "all things being equal"

Olaone1:

In specific terms, it depends. Borrowing at 13% when you can approach foreign lenders at 5% is wrong

I think the important thing is that you have a source of revenue to service foreign debt. In the case of Nigeria 90% of revenue is in dollars and so that is not or (should I say was not) a problem. If anything happens to that source of revenue then the debt would be like music going through a super amplifier.

So a country without a dollar (or other strong currency)revenue has no business borrowing in dollars

Basically what I am saying is it is a nuanced issue not a black or white situation

Sunnybobo3:


Do you propose Buhari maintains subsidy on fuel oor scrap it?

Is this what the argument or question was?? The question is; what accounted for the rise?

Stop playing the ostrich here.

If corruption is eliminated to a large extent, we wouldn't be paying this price for subsidy.

You and I saw from the reports of the HoR, which was eventually rubbished by Jonathan himself by setting up Farouk (who by the way, due to his greed, took the bait) Lawan using one of the major beneficiaries of the fraud indicted in the report, Otedola, how names of ships which had long ago formed coral for sea creatures surfaced in our books claiming to have imported fuel!! In other cases, we saw multiple duplication of claims. Do you think had Jonathan not played posum and pampered these crooks we would have been where we are today??

How come despite the corruption in previous administrations, none had to grapple with such perversion of the subsidy regime by crooks in high places?? If their templates for monitoring helped in keeping such crooks at bay and maintaining subsidy expenditures at sustainable levels, why did Jonathan do away with such templates

You guys should admit it for once, Jonathan is wholly responsible for this mess.

JingoOAU:
The money PDP spent on electioneering campaign had it been it was used to pay part of these loans, it could have reduced drastically....

I can categorically say that PDP spent billion dollars for the election, isn't dat part of the waste we are talking abt?

And where was the money gotten from? Is it not the money borrowed to fund critical projects that were diverted for electioneering campaign....Okonjo iweala might not be corrupt, but she should quit defending indefensible, it hurts so much......

APC as well spentt billions on their campaign. Most states are still owing workers their salaries.

babasanti:
When I read danjumas comment, I felt insulted . Why is asari and other militants delaying. They should blow up all danjumas oil well. Ungraateful cow

And u imagine Danjuma's oil well is in Taraba? They should blow it while their communities suffer the environmental consequences. When the Ogoni's destroyed their ecosystem, in their infantile activism, and thought they were hurting SHELL, am I the one waiting for Christ's second coming to have the UNEP report implemented? By the way, does Asari have two horns? Why wait for Asari's gang if the fellow is a man like you?

omonnakoda:
I think the important thing is that you have a source of revenue to service foreign debt. In the case of Nigeria 90% of revenue is in dollars and so that is not or (should I say was not) a problem. If anything happens to that source of revenue then the debt would be like music going through a super amplifier.

So a country without a dollar (or other strong currency)revenue has no business borrowing in dollars

Basically what I am saying is it is a nuanced issue not a black or white situation

Yes.

At times, foreign lenders have stringent terms attached e.g human rights issues and other veiled instruments of control they often deploy.

But, 13% is huge. Especially in a country like ours. It is too high for a sovereign state. Except there are terms and conditions hidden from us

NOI says its salary increase of civil servants that made up a great part of the debt.

This woman has been lying from time immemorial; the senators and her who earn fat salaries that is more than their US counterparts did not increase the debt but civil servants that made minimum wage to be 18k per month.

Spits on the floor - tufiakwa.

omenka:
Is this what the argument or question was?? The question is; what accounted for the rise?

Stop playing the ostrich here.

If corruption is eliminated to a large extent, we wouldn't be paying this price for subsidy.

You and I saw from the reports of the HoR, which was eventually rubbished by Jonathan himself by setting up Farouk (who by the way, due to his greed, took the bait) Lawan using one of the major beneficiaries of the fraud indicted in the report, Otedola, how names of ships which had long ago formed coral for sea creatures surfaced in our books claiming to have imported fuel!! In other cases, we saw multiple duplication of claims. Do you think had Jonathan not played posum and pampered these crooks we would have been where we are today??

How come despite the corruption in previous administrations, none had to grapple with such perversion of the subsidy regime by crooks in high places?? If their templates for monitoring helped in keeping such crooks at bay and maintaining subsidy expenditures at sustainable levels, why did Jonathan do away with such templates

You guys should admit it for once, Jonathan is wholly responsible for this mess.

My question is just an aside. Yes there is inflation in the claims.

Now answer my question. Do you propose that Buhari's maintains the subsidy regime or scrap it?

madamoringo:
Lol

Smh for you.
Silly "lol" is all you can type with all this epistle
I bet you didn't even read two lines. And a morôn even liked your silly lol
I'm sure it will be one Useless jobless guy...

Sunnybobo3:


My question is just an aside. Yes there is inflation in the claims.

Now answer my question. Do you propose that Buhari's maintains the subsidy regime or scrap it?

Read the post again. The third and fifth paragraphs answer your question.

Which way now Nigeria

Se na like this we go de dey

otokx:
NOI says its salary increase of civil servants that made up a great part of the debt.

This woman has been lying from time immemorial; the senators and her who earn fat salaries that is more than their US counterparts did not increase the debt but civil servants that made minimum wage to be 18k per month.

Spits on the floor - tufiakwa.

read it slowly this time around!

omonnakoda:
You have not backed up your opinion with evidence. It all depends on the terms of the loan. Like I pointed out with figures over the last 4 years and indeed longer exchange rates have been stable and we re borrowing at 13% now if you get a dollar denominated loan whether or not it is cheaper depends on ; the interest rate,your dollar revenue and or the performance of the dollar. It is not an absolute given as you are trying to suggest. Certainly taking the last 10 years or so for reference. Borrowing 91 day paper at 13% in naira is a lot more expensive than World Bank loans in dollars at under 5%
As a matter of fact there was a period in 2006-2008 when the dollar headed south 1

It is not true that a fall in exchange rate works in your favour you will simply have to pay more to borrow locally as is ALREADY HAPPENING. Those who lend to the government are not stupid.They employ very smart actuaries to work for them.

Which of my opinions is unsubstantiated: that inflation erodes the value of Nigerian Naira debt? That Naira depreciation works in our favour as revenue is denominated in dollars? Take the latter, you keep saying that exchange rate depreciation will bring about higher bond yields, that is not necessarily true. 10-year FGN bonds issued in February 2012 had a yield at issue of circa 16%

A new 10-year bond with a volume N35 billion was issued at an interest rate of 16.39 per cent.

http://www.africainvestor.com/article.asp?id=9941.In May 2015 when we have all adopted an apocalyptic tone and Naira has fallen significantly, certainly by comparison to February 2012:

The 10-year bond fetched a yield of 13.48 percent against 14.22 percent last month

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/14/nigeria-treasuries-bonds-idUSL5N0Y51WO20150514

What is assumed away in your posts is that the relatively lower yields associated with foreign loans would have remained the same if we had sourced more of our loans from abroad. The reality is that the higher our external debt stock, the more likely yields will go up. This simplistic and static comparison of foreign yields to domestic yields is what led us to stock up on foreign debt in the 70s and 80s culminating in SAP when we couldn't pay it back because of the collapse in oil revenue. This paper points it out succintly:

For instance, Nigeria’s external debt in 1960 was about $150 million; however, beginning in the year 1978, the situation changed. Nigeria, atthe lure of the international financial centers, started to borrow huge sums from privatesources at floating rates and with shorter-term maturities. The 1978 “jumbo loan” alone wasestimated at some US $1 billion. By 1982, the value of Nigeria’s external indebtedness wasUS $18.631 billion, which represented over 160% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product(GDP) for that year. The situation precipitated a debt-crisis that progressively worsened over time. By 1986, Nigeria had to adopt a World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF)sponsored Structural Adjustment Program (SAP), with a view to revamping the economy andmaking the country better-able to service her debt

http://www.academia.edu/3178377/THE_IMPACT_OF_EXTERNAL_DEBT_ON_ECONOMIC_GROWTH_A_COMPARATIVE_STUDY_OF_NIGERIA_AND_SOUTH_AFRICA

Another thing I have noticed is that your argument presupposes that nothing changes from May 29. This is not what we have been told as we have been led to believe that GEJ is stealing all our money, including $20bn in an 18 month period. If theft is on the scale of what has been alleged, surely Nigeria's future borrowing needs will decline significantly from May 29 and with it our debt burden, including future bond yields. No be so?

Madam Minister if from 1960 Nigeria incurred a debt of about $63B,how can only GEJ have a share of about $20B. If we divide that figure by the number of people that have lead Nigerian,he alone has the heightest share. Can you tell us why? If his govt was all that good to have warranted such debt,why did he lost the election? When probed GEJ administration might even be more corrupt them General Abacha. Something is trully fishy. You Ministers have ran Nigerian economy to the woods-the crisis and pain you people have caused our economy is already consuming us all with the latest fuel scarcity.

4Play:


Which of my opinions is unsubstantiated: that inflation erodes the value of Nigerian Naira debt? That Naira depreciation works in our favour as revenue is denominated in dollars? Take the latter, you keep saying that exchange rate depreciation will bring about higher bond yields, that is not necessarily true. 10-year FGN bonds issued in February 2012 had a yield at issue of circa 16% http://www.africainvestor.com/article.asp?id=9941.In May 2015 when we have all adopted an apocalyptic tone and Naira has fallen significantly, certainly by comparison to February 2012:http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/14/nigeria-treasuries-bonds-idUSL5N0Y51WO20150514

What is assumed away in your posts is that the relatively lower yields associated with foreign loans would have remained the same if we had sourced more of our loans from abroad. The reality is that the higher our external debt stock, the more likely yields will go up. This simplistic and static comparison of foreign yields to domestic yields is what led us to stock up on foreign debt in the 70s and 80s culminating in SAP when we couldn't pay it back because of the collapse in oil revenue. This paper points it out succintly:
http://www.academia.edu/3178377/THE_IMPACT_OF_EXTERNAL_DEBT_ON_ECONOMIC_GROWTH_A_COMPARATIVE_STUDY_OF_NIGERIA_AND_SOUTH_AFRICA

Another thing I have noticed is that your argument presupposes that nothing changes from May 29. This is not what we have been told as we have been led to believe that GEJ is stealing all our money, including $20bn in an 18 month period. If theft is on the scale of what has been alleged, surely Nigeria's future borrowing needs will decline significantly from May 29 and with it our debt burden, including future bond yields. No be so?

We are talking of a domestic debt that runs into trillions of naira and you are talking of 10 year bonds for 35 billion.How much of the debt is 10 year bond. The fact is at a time when our foreign reserves were at an all time high. We were borrowing locally at 13% for 91 day coupons.

We must remember that we were holding reserves in US currency at a time when interest rates in the US was virtually zero .In effect funding US debt for free while borrowing locally at 16% .
It is a fact that we did not and still do not at FG level have signiificant sources of local income so in effect we were servicing out local debt with dollar income.
My argument has nothing to do with May 29. Just your claim that it is ALWAYS better to borrow locally. I disagree.
NOI should have encouraged a substantial reduction in local debt stock at the same time that the foreign debt was paid. That money would have produced growth and employment. Instead the money was left in foreign banks for them to use in their economies at next to 0% interest while we continue to borrow at 13%.

Eventually what happened to the reserves it was used to "DEFEND" the naira afutile battle that was eventually abandoned. Meaning it was flushed down the drain. In others we could have erased the local debt instead of engaging in the foolish "defense"
Finally borrowing at 13% is an indication of the risk perception or credit worthiness of the government. Such high rate indicates the level of mistrust in the economy which has not changed through nearly a decade of high oil prices

Sunnybobo3:


My question is just an aside. Yes there is inflation in the claims.

Now answer my question. Do you propose that Buhari's maintains the subsidy regime or scrap it?

Permit me to respond to your question on his behalf.

The general belief is that the subsidy program has been so bastardised that the best option for the in-coming administration will be to do away with it.

Nigerians have risen against the removal before. Will we do so again? We won't if we feel that the government is sincere & demonstrates the political will to punish those who stole our commonwealth.

One way or another, there is no government on Earth that will not subsidise one item or another be it fuels, education, health, housing, worker's salaries etc. What matters is the sincerity of the people in government.

The same woman who told us before the election that Nigeria is not broke and that the economy is strong, but later came out to tell us after Jonathan lost that federal govt borrowed #470bn to pay salaries. Well i stop taking her seriously when Prof Soludo accused her of failing to properly manage the economic and even challenge her to a open debate..

The same woman that told us that debt was bad in 1999-2006 is no telling us that debt is OK in 2015.. Selective amnesia!!

Heeeeeeeyyyyyyy! Lie lie woman! Where is Soludo? Soludo please help us reply dis thief of a woman!

Obijulius:
I wish we could have an Nzeogwu to clean out all living former leaders before Yaradua.

Everybody that has ever tasted power. Or had any connection with government should be cleaned out.

Their friends, cronies and family members too.

We need real change, not fake APC change.

D real Change is here #APC!
At d mere mention of dat name 'APC', thieves are beginning 2 pack dia soiled bags out of d Country in d guise of having "well deserved rest" after 16 yrs of mindless pillage of our collective patrimony.
#deyCanRun
#butCan'tHide!

sonOfLucifer:
A brilliant nigerian woman has become a dummy. What a transfiguration NOI

She is still brilliant as ever. We Nigerians need to learn to be objective and open minded. It is not an easy task managing the economy of a large country as ours. She has done a marvellous job. She is not the president. We should stop mixing up the roles of finance minister with that of the president or law enforcement.