[size=18pt]Week Two of the Russian Military Intervention in Syria Options for Daesh, the Empire and Russia[/size]
7630 ViewsOctober 18, 2015 116 Comments
Unz ReviewThis column was originally written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-two-of-the-russian-military-intervention-in-syria/

The Russian offensive in Syria is still very much in full swing and it is hard to make sense of what is really happening or how effective it has been. According to the Syrians, 40% of all the infrastructure of “Daesh” (meaning ISIS+al-Qaeda+all the hundreds of smaller groups fighting together against the Syrian government) has been destroyed. Russian sources are less enthusiastic and speak of a rather slow and hesitant Syrian offensive. So far, no major victory has been reported, but since all sides agree that the Russian air campaign is devastatingly effective and highly disruptive for Daesh, I think that there is a good probability that the Syrians will soon achieve a major success. If not, then the Iranians most definitely have the capability to truly tip the balance. So this might be a good time to look at what options Daesh will have.

How Daesh can adapt to the new circumstances

First, up until now, Daesh basically could move around at night with total impunity because the Syrian Air Force simply did not have the technology to detect and engage Daesh units at night. This has now changed since all the Russian aircraft (rotary and fixed wing) engaged in the current campaign are fully night capable. This is a major problem for Daesh which will now have to operate in an extremely dangerous environment 24 hours a day. The solution? Camouflage and dispersal. Daesh forces will have to learn to pay much more attention to avoiding detection, including radio detection, and they will have to avoid as much as possible any detectable concentrations. Not an easy task, for sure, but one which has been successfully learned by others in the past.

Second, Daesh forces will have to adapt to guerrilla-style ‘hit and run’ kinds of attacks. Until now, both sides were willing to engage in a bizarre kind of “trench warfare” in which each side would dig in and shell the other. Now that Russian bombers and close air support aircraft can be called in by the Syrian frontline commanders, this will become very dangerous for Daesh, probably forcing them to switch to faster, ambush warfare.

Third, most sources agree that currently Daesh controls roughly 80% of the land and 20% of the population. This is mostly due to the size of the Syrian armed forces which are stretched too thin to hold on to lightly populated areas. Daesh can use that to its advantage and try to move around any attacking Syrian forces and then ambush any units whose flanks and supply routes are not secured. The Syrians will have to be very careful not to fall into a “cauldron” trap like the Ukrainians in Novorussia.

Fourth, if things become really ugly for Daesh, they can start using the Turkish, Iraqi, Lebanese and Jordanian borders to hide from the Syrian/Iranian forces and enjoy the kind of safe heaven the Afghans had in Pakistan during the Soviet invasion.

Fifth, Daesh might do what the Ukrainians have done and organized a ‘Russian atrocity’ false flag, maybe the bombing of a pediatric clinic or hospital. They could even try a “Russian chemical attack in fleeing refugees”. The corporate media will be more than happy to pick up and spread the story, no matter how ridiculous.

Finally, we can be absolutely certain that if the Syrian military is “too” successful, at least from the point of view of the Empire, then all the “friends of Syria” will join forces and demand a “peace conference” whose main purpose will be to save Daesh from complete destruction. This is the strategy used by the West with the Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 peace talks to save the Ukronazi junta from military defeat.

The world has seen numerous examples of Daesh-like forces (in military, not political, terms) adapting to a technologically superior enemy. Right now, the government’s superiority is primarily in the skies (thanks to the RuAF) and in intelligence (thanks to the OsNaz GRU units on the ground and the Russian “eyes and ears” in the sky and in space). With time, however, Russian could bring in new equipment (modern multiple rocket launchers, TOS-1 heavy flame-throwers, newer armor and artillery systems) which can make a real difference but at the end of the day, it will be ‘boots’, in the sense of infantry, which will decide the outcome. Will the Syrians and Kurds be enough to break Daesh or will the Iranians make a move? I honestly don’t know, but my bet is on Iran and Hezbollah moving in. As for a Russian intervention, Putin has now totally excluded such a possibility.

Options recommended by US politicians

US politicians have come up with two suggestions to help their “moderate terrorists”: supply advanced anti-air missiles to Daesh and impose a no-fly zone. I consider both of these suggestions highly impractical and very dangerous.

Delivering advanced anti-air missiles: which ones?! Daesh already has man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) like the US Stingers and Russian Iglas. These are fine missiles, but they don’t have the reach to hit Russian aircraft which mostly fly at 5000m. True, they can hit a low flying target like a SU-25 on a close air support mission or a Mi-24 helicopter. Both of these aircraft have been heavily modified during and after the wars in Afghanistan and Chechnia and they are well-protected against such attacks. Still, sooner or later a Russian aircraft will get hit by such a missile and it is even possible that it will be downed. Daesh already has this capability and sending them more MANPADs just makes no sense but is very dangerous considering the kind of use any terrorist group can make of them against civilian airliners. Syria is not Afghanistan and we are not in the 1980s. MANPADs are simply not likely to make a major difference in this war, especially not against the kind of aircraft the Russians are currently deploying.

A no-fly zone: against whom, Russian aircraft? For one thing, this would be insanely provocative and the potential consequences of the US shooting down a Russian aircraft are truly terrifying. But this also begs the question of where such a zone would be created. Hillary and the other Neocon crazies are suggesting a no-fly zone over northern Syria. Okay, what if in response Russia declares another no fly zone over the rest of the country? Then what? Setting aside the insanity of actually threatening to attack Russia in military terms, in legal terms the Empire has no mandate to declare such a zone while Russia is standing on 100% legal grounds should she declare one. And if the Empire really goes crazy and declares that it will impose a no-fly zone over all of Syria you can be absolutely certain that S-300s will “suddenly” show up in sufficient numbers to make that an extremely dangerous exercise. By the way, at that point, the Russians can declare that all the S-300s in Syria are manned exclusively by Syrian personnel and are under Syrian command and thus they will be able to shoot down US aircraft in total impunity (as they already have in the past in Vietnam and Lebanon).

A no-fly zone makes sense against a defenseless country, but against one armed with semi-modern or modern air defenses this is a very dangerous proposition. I want to believe that there are enough mentally sane men in the JCS and Pentagon to reject any plan which can end up triggering a nuclear war between Russia and the USA.

The “sulking superpower”

Right now, the USA appears to be completely clueless. First, they accused the Russians of bombing the “wrong” terrorists. The Russians then replied “okay, give us a list of “bad terrorists” targets and we will destroy them”. The Americans refused. Then the Russians told them, “okay then, in this case at least give us a list of “good terrorist” targets not to bomb, and we will not hit them”. But the Americans refused again! At this point, the Russian began making openly fun of the Americans and Putin even declared that his American “partners” have “mush for brains”.

Furthermore, the USA have also refused a Russian invitation to send military specialists to the Russian General Staff and now they have apparently even refused to receive a Russian military delegation headed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev himself! I don’t think I have ever heard of a “sulking superpower” but that is what we are apparently observing right now. How long Uncle Sam will continue to pout in his corner is anyone’s guess, but this is clearly not a sustainable policy. In fact, it is no policy at all.

I see no sign of the USA having the courage to look at reality and act accordingly. Not only is the Obama Administration at an absolutely unprecedented level of incompetence and intellectual mediocrity, the upcoming Presidential election is just making things worse: with bona fide psychopaths like Hillary, McCain or Fiorina making irresponsible statements on an almost daily basis, the White House must constantly dodge accusations of being “too soft on Russia”. And since no US politician can afford to tell the American public the basic truth that the US is not omnipotent, US politicians are stuck in a never ending race to prove how “tough” they are on “defense”. As for the Europeans, they probably have the brains to see all of the above, but what they lack is the spine to say anything to their American overlords.

Just like in the Ukraine, the West has made created a total mess and now is completely clueless as to what to do about it.

Russian options

Contrary to the impression given by the western media, the Russian force in Syria is still a very small one. The main reason for that is that the airfield near Latakia simply cannot accommodate a larger Russian force. As far as I know, there are no other locations in Syria where Russia could deploy more aircraft. True, the number of sorties flown by the Russians has baffled USAF experts who could never have achieved that kind of figures with US aircraft and pilots. Still, the Russian force is small and vulnerable. Of course, one option for the Russians would be to expand the airfield near Latakia, but that would take time and more resources and my understanding is that they want to consolidate their current airfield first. However, as a stop-gap measure, the Russians could use Russian-based bombers. If Iran allows Russia to conduct in-air refueling in Iranian airspace or if Iran allows Russia to use Iranian airbases, then many more SU-34/SU-35SM or SU-34/SU-30SM “air force packages” that could be engaged in Syria. In theory, Russia could even provide her Tu-22M3 to deliver gravity bombs, her Tu-95MS to deliver cruise missiles and her Tu-160 to deliver either one or both. I don’t think that there is any military necessity to use these strategic bombers right now, but it might be a good idea to do so for political reasons – just to flex some more ‘military muscle’ and show the Neocons that Russia is not to be messed with. Submarine launched cruise missiles would also work, especially if launched by a Russian sub in the Mediterranean which the USN did not detect. What is certain is that after the first volley of Russian cruise missiles the US withdrew its only aircraft carrier – the Theodore Roosevelt – from the Persian Gulf.

[Sidebar: some Russian observers have suggested that the first volley of Russian cruise missiles included 26 missiles because the 26th President of the United States was Theodore Roosevelt, the name of the only carrier which was in the Persian Gulf, and that this was a subtle message to the USA. Dunno. Maybe so. Maybe not. But if it is a coincidence, it is a neat one. What is certain is that for the first time in a very long while there are no US carriers in the Persian Gulf]

The main problem with any military escalation or increased Russian involvement is that Putin would have to sell it to the Russian public which, at least so far, has been totally supportive, but which is generally weary of “mission creep” and open ended military commitments (for example, most Russians oppose an overt Russian intervention in the Donbass). So far, the Kremlin has done a superb PR job explaining that Daesh is a direct threat to Russia and that it was better for Russia to “fight them over there than over here”. This logic, however, is predicated on the idea that a very limited Russian intervention can tip the balance. There is a very fine conceptual line between tipping the balance and fighting someone else’s war and that is something the Kremlin is acutely aware of. Hopefully, this line will never be crossed.

The Saker

UPDATE: the latest news is that the Americans have even refused the Russian offer to coordinate the rescue of any American or Russian pilot shot downed/crashed over Syria! Apparently, it is more important for Obama to continue sulking at Putin than to maximize the survival chances of US pilots. This is as pathetic as it is disgusting.

I see Russia becoming the world number one in terms of military might in no distance.

The part in red is especially for Missy89 and CSTR2....Enjoy

zico530:
I see Russia becoming the world number one in terms of military might in no distance.

I'm sure Disney can make that happen.It would be a very nice movie

The United States is not intimidated by Russia.It's still the other way round.

Reports from the modern Syrian Human Rights Watch has it that Russian strikes killed over 300,half of this figure is over a hinders innocent civilians and 37 children.

So much for air strikes.

Isn't it safe to say,Russia itself is operating in the blind,at the onset of the Syrian crises Russia was nowhere to be found.You can't just swoop in when things are haywire and expect to simply rewire it with air strikes using cluster bombs.

Right now, the USA appears to be completely clueless. First, they accused the Russians of bombing the “wrong” terrorists. The Russians then replied “okay, give us a list of “bad terrorists” targets and we will destroy them”. The Americans refused. Then the Russians told them, “okay then, in this case at least give us a list of “good terrorist” targets not to bomb, and we will not hit them”. But the Americans refused again! At this point, the Russian began making openly fun of the Americans and Putin even declared that his American “partners” have “mush for brains”.

Isn't this just funny how Russia is trying to belittle the U.S. Approach towards Syria.

Let's define Russia's role in the current crises.

Russia is allies with the Syrian Government,that is Assad,the rogue and tyrant President who has reduced his citizens to hopeless refugees all around Europe.

Russia entered Syria with a military option.Mission to destroy ISIL.

Firstly,since Russia has the capacity and capability to carry out its military offensive successfully,it means it had a plan to execute in Syria without the intervention or input of any nation.This they did in the first two weeks of the strikes.

Which means,Russia supposedly has the locations and targets that were up for elimination.

No 2,Putin has not given the world,fleeing Syrians,the United Nations or the so called Russian Parliament why he is in a romance with Assad,a tyrant who has murdered and tortured his over 200,000 of his people.Somehow The parliaments policy okays Putin to strike a military offensive abroad within the country it supports without any concrete reason to why it is doing so.

Thirdly,since Russia had it all figured out,they carried out the strikes as they saw fit.They need not bullshit the U.S. If it refuses them an audience cause last we checked,they didn't do the same before they moved in to Syria.

Russia acted as a lone wolf out for the kill.Targetting anti-government forces and oppositions supported by the U.S,encouraged by Syrians.

Russia's mission is clear,and we all get it.It has acted in the best of its interest not in the interest of displaced Syrians or the interest of a unified peaceful Syria.

Just last week we saw how Russia was running to clarify air boundaries and avoid entering into an escalation with Israel,Saudi Arabia,Turkey,UAE and U.S.

Why they already have their plans unfolded out of their sleeves and their actions have been carried out as they please.Rather than avoiding air confrontation with those air forces,Russia could simply strategize with them on their knowledge of ISIL and attack ISIL but no Putin has no such plans,it's to destroy anything tha is not related to the Syrian forces in Syria.

ValerianSteel:
The United States is not intimidated by Russia.It's still the other way round.

Reports from ......

Yaaaaawwwn! Next please

NairaMinted:


Yaaaaawwwn! Next please

So Mr Valeriansteel,,are you subtly supporting the rubbish the U.S have been doing in Syria over these years with no concrete achievement to show for their involvement.Did you not hear about those brand new Toyota trucks used by the terrorists, my question is how did they come about the trucks,the U.S are trying to take out a smaller evil(Assad) using a bigger evil(the terrorists),then few years from now if they succeed the whole of Syria would be a war zone just like it happened in Iraq.

We were told that Saddam Hussein had nuclear/weapons of mass destruction but alas what happened when the Allied forces got to Iraq ,they saw no such thing and it became clear that George bush jnr.only came to finish off what his father started and since then Iraq has not remained the same.Arabians don't need democracy,they will misuse the freedom that comes with it as we are seeing in Libya,another country that was doing fine before the U.S exported their democracy there.

I am not a fan of Putin but the Americans have not told the truth why they are so much interested in getting Assad out ,he is a legitimate president and unfortunately there is nothing they can do about.Will the U.S take it lightly with any country that tries to subvert her legitimacy under any guise.

There are so many instances of their double standards which will make you want to puke if you are able to read between the lines,their real intentions are never known or made known to the citizenry of the 'benefiting' nation until they have been hard hit.So much for being the ' World police'

MONITZ:

So Mr Valeriansteel,,are you subtly supporting the rubbish the U.S have been doing in Syria over these years with no concrete achievement to show for their involvement.Did you not hear about those brand new Toyota trucks used by the terrorists, my question is how did they come about the trucks,the U.S are trying to take out a smaller evil(Assad) using a bigger evil(the terrorists),then few years from now if they succeed the whole of Syria would be a war zone just like it happened in Iraq.

We were told that Saddam Hussein had nuclear/weapons of mass destruction but alas what happened when the Allied forces got to Iraq ,they saw no such thing and it became clear that George bush jnr.only came to finish off what his father started and since then Iraq has not remained the same.Arabians don't need democracy,they will misuse the freedom that comes with it as we are seeing in Libya,another country that was doing fine before the U.S exported their democracy there.

I am not a fan of Putin but the Americans have not told the truth why they are so much interested in getting Assad out ,he is a legitimate president and unfortunately there is nothing they can do about.Will the U.S take it lightly with any country that tries to subvert her legitimacy under any guise.

There are so many instances of their double standards which will make you want to puke if you are able to read between the lines,their real intentions are never known or made known to the citizenry of the 'benefiting' nation until they have been hard hit.So much for being the ' World police'

Abeg, help me tell all these US apologists. Justifying, rationalizing and finding excuses for Amerika's hegemony and world destruction. Their narrative is falling apart and they are holding on to straws...

Russia is bombing terrorist, the US is bombing Syria's power stations and other infrastructure and acting as the the air force of ISIS and Al-Qaeda and some people here are "arguing", "explaining" and "analyzing" it out....... Wetin man no go see!

US & Russia in Syria: A Tale of Two Tales

In 2011, Russia and Syria said terrorists backed by foreign interests sought to overthrow the government in Damascus, plunging the country into instability just like was done in Libya...

In 2015, Russia and Syria say terrorists backed by foreign interests seek to overthrow the government in Damascus, plunging the country into instability just like was done in Liyba.

Their story hasn't changed, and over the past 4-5 years, the world has come to see they are telling the truth. Now let's examine the US' side of the story...

2011: Pro-democracy freedom fighters are peacefully protesting, US must support them.

2012: Totally secular freedom fighters have taken up arms to defend themselves & the US must intervene on humanitarian grounds.

2013: Syria is using "weapons of mass destruction" and so the US must intervene.

2014: Al Qaeda and ISIS are now in Syria, the US must intervene to stop them (and also overthrow the Syrian government).

2015: There are no moderates, there are moderates, the US must intervene to save them, the US must intervene to stop them. There are now suddenly "moderates" again, and the US is backing them, but Russia is bombing them... and so on.

Commonsense tells us that if you can't keep your story straight, you're likely lying. The US is obviously lying, their own policy papers where they planned this entire conflict years before it unfolded betray the elementary lies used to justify this criminal conspiracy.

MONITZ:

So Mr Valeriansteel,,are you subtly supporting the rubbish the U.S have been doing in Syria over these years with no concrete achievement to show for their involvement.Did you not hear about those brand new Toyota trucks used by the terrorists, my question is how did they come about the trucks,the U.S are trying to take out a smaller evil(Assad) using a bigger evil(the terrorists),then few years from now if they succeed the whole of Syria would be a war zone just like it happened in Iraq.

We were told that Saddam Hussein had nuclear/weapons of mass destruction but alas what happened when the Allied forces got to Iraq ,they saw no such thing and it became clear that George bush jnr.only came to finish off what his father started and since then Iraq has not remained the same.Arabians don't need democracy,they will misuse the freedom that comes with it as we are seeing in Libya,another country that was doing fine before the U.S exported their democracy there.

I am not a fan of Putin but the Americans have not told the truth why they are so much interested in getting Assad out ,he is a legitimate president and unfortunately there is nothing they can do about.Will the U.S take it lightly with any country that tries to subvert her legitimacy under any guise.

There are so many instances of their double standards which will make you want to puke if you are able to read between the lines,their real intentions are never known or made known to the citizenry of the 'benefiting' nation until they have been hard hit.So much for being the ' World police'

I don't believe I justified US past actions and policies.Am no one to pacify them.Just as every nation is,America can be held accountable for some notable mistakes and missteps,let's not crucify them yet.

On this current issue,Assad is a threat to not just the Middle East but to Syrians themselves.A man capable of gassing 7000 Syrian ought be shot in the head.

While I believe America has downplayed the whole boots on ground,take out the target ways,it has now employed some decisive ways of getting the job done,no matter how ugly it looks,in this case it may involve manipulating terrorist interest to take out the target,Assad.

Just as in every warfare,no one is every right with every move,you can only anticipate it goes in your pre planned direction.

The Middle East needs Democracy.Tyranny and despotism has become a norm for them.Israel the one true Democracy in the Middle East can speak to this.Even Iran with its biased self style Democracy works because there's power in democracy.

We can't encourage totalitarian tendencies from nations.This offsets the immaculateness of its people.For this reason,Democracy can work fully in all of the Middle East.

Since most of them are monarchal or emirati styled government.They can be enjoined to practice constitutional monarchy.

No one is born to rule forever,the Arabs have woken up to this reality that they want their voices heard one or the other,this can only be done through having representatives in government who they can hold accountable when things goes wrong.

It would help most of this nations to allow public individuals lead their government and have proper constitution while they may choose to retain a vast amount of power through the monarchy but let a Viceroy,Chancellor or Prime Minister be made accountable to the people,even if behind closed doors he is still manipulated by the ruling powers but there is trust,change,continuity and stability in power.

The interesting part about Syria is the people want Assad gone and would support a U.S. Invasion to get him ousted over Russia's ego induced support of Assad.Of course no one allies with another without an interest,It's a common universal process,if it helps the Syrians get a better country,then the U.S. Has every right to speak and fight for them.

ValerianSteel:
I don't believe I justified US past actions and policies.Am no one to pacify them.Just as every nation is,America can be held accountable for some notable mistakes and missteps,let's not crucify them yet.

On this current issue,Assad is a threat to not just the Middle East but to Syrians themselves.A man capable of gassing 7000 Syrian ought be shot in the head.

Lol! Fairytales! Is this before or after his secular country that he oversaw was overran by jihadists from all corners of the earth?

ValerianSteel:
While I believe America has downplayed the whole boots on ground,take out the target ways,it has now employed some decisive ways of getting the job done,no matter how ugly it looks,in this case it may involve manipulating terrorist interest to take out the target,Assad.

Yes, I get what you mean by no matter how ugly it looks. Amerika is no more even bothering with the pretense of vetting the so called "moderate" rebels anymore. They are just now air- dropping tons of ammunition and supplies for whoever cares to use them. Typical gung-ho style of the Amerikans. Fanning the flames of war. Success in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen and Libya. Next stop, Syria. Clap for yasef!

ValerianSteel:
The Middle East needs Democracy.Tyranny and despotism has become a norm for them.Israel the one true Democracy in the Middle East can speak to this.Even Iran with its biased self style Democracy works because there's power in democracy.

Here's a thought! Why not Amerika bomb the autocratic, despotic and depraved Kingdom of Saudi Arabia into freedom and democracy? They after all treat their women like dirt; don't allow them to vote or to enjoy basic rights since they are more or less property to be used as any man wishes; they chop off a head at least once every two days - even for "crimes" as mundane as criticizing the government; they export their brand of wahabist, takfiri terror from Afghanistan to Libya to Syria to Chechnya and so forth; their heirs and members of their royal family treat their staff worse than slaves - be it killing domestic staff in London or raping them in Los Angeles, its all nice and dandy cos they are Saudis; they bomb neighboring Yemen and kill civilians indiscriminately like they did last week and a week before that and a month ago at a wedding reception and SO ON AND ON

And Israel, an occupying force with no historical claim to the land in which they occupy? A government that runs the last remaining apartheid system and discriminates against blacks such as (i.g.norant) you by running the biggest internment camps for Africans in the Negev desert? A country that every once in a while embarks on a muderous o.r.gy of Palestinians by bombing them indiscriminately and please do not come up with the same lame, tired excuse that Hamas uses civilians as human shields! Israel that keeps expanding settlements, seizing land and pushing Palestinians out of their homes in defiance to several UN resolutions

Show me an Israeli whose grandparent or greatgrandparents were born in Israel!

ValerianSteel:
We can't encourage totalitarian tendencies from nations.This offsets the immaculateness of its people.For this reason,Democracy can work fully in all of the Middle East.

If you think so, them I am afraid sir that you are a COMPLETE IDIEET! Who are you to be telling them what kind of government is best for them? Why? Cos you understand their ways and culture? Cos democracy is the one-stop-all-working solution to the world's problems? Anyway like I mentioned before, lets start with Saudi Arabia, shall we? At least they hold elections in Iran at all tiers of government. Can't say the same for Saudi Arabia!

ValerianSteel:
Since most of them are monarchal or emirati styled government.They can be enjoined to practice constitutional monarchy.

Trying to shift the goalpost for your Emirati and Saudi buddies eh? CLOWN!

ValerianSteel:
No one is born to rule forever,the Arabs have woken up to this reality that they want their voices heard one or the other,this can only be done through having representatives in government who they can hold accountable when things goes wrong.

Again, go tell your Saudi, Jordanian, Emirati, Qatari and Baharaini buddies!

ValerianSteel:
The interesting part about Syria is the people want Assad gone and would support a U.S. Invasion to get him ousted over Russia's ego induced support of Assad.Of course no one allies with another without an interest,It's a common universal process,if it helps the Syrians get a better country,then the U.S. Has every right to speak and fight for them.

No they don't you igno.ra.mus! Cite your sources or provide links where the Syrians (in majority) want Assad gone? And how have the past U.S. invasions worked out by the way?

You seem to think this is some Hollywood style America-Saves-The-Day movie where Amerika swoops in and gets the bad guys that are democracy and freedom hating. The tyrant is dethroned and the freedom fighters (like in Libya, only that they are actually ISIS and Al-Qaeda) are put in power.

Please wake up from your slumber and see how the world really works, Mr ValerianSteel! This isn't The Game of Thrones as im sure is the origin of your user name