989900E:
1. The CBN is both corrupt and clueless at the same time.

2. The banks are some cesspit of profiteering and racketeering, frustrating all monetary policies along with their cronies.

3. Some group of Nigerians (politicians mostly) are going to make most policies null/DOA with the massive amount of stolen monies they need to convert to foreign currencies for easier storage.

4. The CBN under Emefiele is not only weak, but chronically corrupt, thus lacks the will power to really effect the actual policies that should arrest the situation. It is worthy to note, Emefiele supervised the emptying of the treasury, he didn't do it for free, he owes those people, hence he can't really go for the kill (against hoarding). Over $20 billion dollars in dorm accounts in Nigeria, and there is scarcity?

5. Still on hoarding and racketeering, now everyone is doing it -- from Nairalanders to bank staffs, BDCs, government officials, Nigerians overseas, the 'average Joe' . . . but we all want a stable Naira, how ironic?

LordAdam:


[s]Please Mr. Economist, suggest a better monetary policy.[/s]

Since the start of the FX crisis, CBN has taken hard but valid steps to assuage the situation. [s]It is not their fault that they are not performing any miracles. Emefiele is not a sorcerer.[/s]

[s]The major department of the FG that can prop up the economy is the Ministry of Finance. We have an amateur there. And no body is saying anything because she is from the sophisticated tribe.

Nigeria is in a recession and the best Adeosun can tell us is that she's getting rid of ghost workers and not giving states new bail out? If NOI hadn't thought up and instituted the IPPS and Sanusi hadn't enforced BVN, would Adeosun be able to get rid of ghost workers?

Even a 2-year old kid can rid the civil service of ghost workers because these motions have already been set in play by the former administration. NOI removed tens of thousands of ghost workers, so it is a gradual process.[/s]

I'm not saying those are not important, but what Adeosun should be concerned most about is following the fiscal plan to spend our way out of this slump. They planned to spend N1.2 trillion in capital projects in 2016. It is August already, and only N200b has been disbursed.

How do you want the economy to grow and become enticing to investors if you're being a miser and not fast-tracking the process of disbursing that money? They are playing politics with the lives of 180m Nigerians. If there is no money, go and borrow. [s]We all know the anti-corruption war is a farce and all those recovered loot sh*t only exists in the papers. [/s]

[s]Emefiele managed a 197-199 exchange rate for up to 16 months, all this while the President was gallivanting and waiting for God knows what before assembling an economic team. When he did assemble a team, they put together a budget full of errors and drama. All these while, Emefiele was holding the fort.

After the budget was passed and the ball was in the court of Adeosun to give the economy a boost, she couldn't perform her duty. She was speaking Queen's English before and after the float happened instead of positioning the economy.

Even after the float and her inaction rendered the new policy useless, Emefiele is still buying her time with regular monetary interventions, and you still have the guts to blame Emefiele and the guys at CBN?

What da f'ck do you want from Emefiele?[/s]

Emefiele is responding to the times. If FDI had started flowing in after the float (as expected), would the CBN resume selling to the BDC's or revamping the remittance market?

[s]This is how you guys jumped into conclusions that GEJ was doing nothing at the top. He left it for a fuckt'ard and everything went south.

Now you guys have shifted it to Emefiele, that he is doing nothing there, and so should be sacked. [/s]

[s]Ask yourself, what exactly do you think Soludo or Sanusi would do in Emefiele's shoes?

Would Soludo or Sanusi have been able to convince Buhari to allow floating of the naira back in 2015 when he should have allowed it? Were these two not speaking with megaphones about floating/devaluation and Buhari was forming Alhaji?[/s]

[s]Soludo and Sanusi managed Nigeria in times of plenty. Under Obasanjo, when the economy was still in shambles, USD/NGN increased from N21 to N133 (an over 600% increase) between 2000 and 2004. When Soludo entered and oil price maintained a high average, he was only able to reduce it from N133 in 2004 to 127 in 2009. Sanusi reduced from 127 in 2009 to 117 in 2014 when he left.

Soludo/Sanusi spent $20b to prop the naira during the aftermath of the financial crisis, which ended quickly after oil prices started rising. Emefiele has spent only less than $10b with prices falling and staying low for almost 2 years, and you expect the USD/NGN rate to be at 200?

Emefiele has done his best. If his best is not good enough for you, simply relocate from the country and go pay your taxes in another country.

Everyone knows the CBN is more involved in assuaging our current crisis than the FG and its moribund Ministry of Finance.

So, better sit tight and buckle your seat belt. We are in for a rough ride thanks to a dormant FG and reta.rded ministers (with Adeosun being a special case).

Pray oil price rises soon, because there is nothing Emefiele can do without corresponding input from FG to change the current trend.

We are in a recession. There is no dollars. The naira is worthless. Deal with it![/s]

-Lord

989900E:


Obviously, you barely understand the point I am driving at, and only see the part you wanna/can see.

And, if you can't decipher those basics, it's pointless . . .

1. The CBN is both corrupt and clueless at the same time.

2. The banks are some cesspit of profiteering and racketeering, frustrating all monetary policies along with their cronies.

3. Some group of Nigerians (politicians mostly) are going to make most policies null/DOA with the massive amount of stolen monies they need to convert to foreign currencies for easier storage.

4. The CBN under Emefiele is not only weak, but chronically corrupt, thus lacks the will power to really effect the actual policies that should arrest the situation. It is worthy to note, Emefiele supervised the emptying of the treasury, he didn't do it for free, he owes those people, hence he can't really go for the kill (against hoarding). Over $20 billion dollars in dorm accounts in Nigeria, and there is scarcity?

5. Still on hoarding and racketeering, now everyone is doing it -- from Nairalanders to bank staffs, BDCs, government officials, Nigerians overseas, the 'average Joe' . . . but we all want a stable Naira, how ironic?

LordAdam:


You made five points.



It is true they are corrupt, even NAFDAC under Akunyili and the Ministry of Agriculture under Adesina were still corrupt, but they weren't clueless. They made strides and you wouldn't mask the laudable efforts they made just to take a swipe at them for corruption that would take decades to eliminate completely.

The CBN under Emefiele is not clueless. The FG under Buhari and Ministry of Finance under Adeosun are the definition of clueless.



Also true, and it has been a never ending battle since the days of Soludo. Have you forgotten so soon about the CBN's reaction to the Skye Bank saga under Emefiele?



It happens everywhere, and it is the job of the government and relevant agencies to anticipate them. The CBN is obviously doing its best to reduce this, with the regular monetary interventions.



Arrant Nonsense! The last time weak and chronically corrupt was used to describe an office holder of a sensitive position, it was GEJ. After he left it for someone "strong and not chronically corrupt" we know where that got us. Someone that shut down BDCs for blatant abuse of privileges, and then stopped the services of 100s of remittance companies to ensure streamlining of remittances to BDCs for more availability of dollars is weak? Do you know how many toes he stepped on with those decisions.

How old are you?

The over $20b you are talking about, is it your money? Is it FG's money? Is it a crime for people to keep their dollars in Nigerian dorm accounts? If you had $10,000 dollars in your dorm account as savings for a rainy day, would you sell it to the CBN because you are a patriotic Nigeria when you do not have immediate use of the Naira.

Do you not know that those $20b are deposits that the banks use as base for their lending? Or do you want him to rob people of their dollars?



Everyone is out to make money. If you aren't, poor you. The Government created the conditions for hoarding and racketeering to thrive. If the economy was in a better position, would the disparity between official exchange rate and black market rate be this high?

Now that the CBN is trying to close the gap, what is the FG and Ministry of Finance doing to bolster the CBN's position? Abi is it only a fight for the CBN alone.

Within the next two months, Nigeria would officially be in a recession. With oil price still low, almost non-existent capital spending, and no working fiscal policy, the naira would take a fine beating, and hard as CBN may try, it can't stop a ship that has already sailed. Buhari, Osinbajo, and Adeosun have killed the economy, don't expect Emefiele to salvage anything. He has done his job, don't blame him for the inefficiency of others who cannot do their jobs.

While the CBN is having regular MPC meetings and doing all they can to keep the naira afloat, Osinbajo (the head of the economic team) and Adeosun are holding 1-day economic retreats with fanfare and still running about looking for experts to consult. Buhari is empty, so there's no need talking about him.

-Lord

989900E:


Of course, it is everyone's fault except the CBN's, and Emefiele is just so perfect even with all the policy flip-flops, and somersaults . . . even though it took the CBN 6-7 months to come up with the prevalent Forex policies, it is no fault of theirs that adequate checks and balances are not put in place to make the banks participate in the required manner expected of them in the market.

Emefiele and the CBN's commitment and reactionary policy fabrications is one thing, achieving the desired goal is another. Every other aspect of the economy revolves around sound monetary policies, else fiscal policies would not have the desired effect on the nation's economy.

The CBN spends a fortune in the name of 'mopping up excess liquidity', also raising interests (raising interests dulls the economy), yet the same excess liquidity could be well checked by using the 'Boyo' approach. Ironically, as much as you, I, and everyone else will want the gov't to 'pump' money into the economy, with the tattered monetary policies and uncontrollable fall/epileptic situation of the Niara, it will only worsen the value of the Naira, and further drive up inflation if the proper monetary policies are not in place.

The banks are required to have matching CRRs, but none for the Forex deposits with them -- that's some keg of gunpowder, what happens if any of those banks go bankrupt tomorrow? Many economists, have proffered different smart scenarios to make those idle dollars in them vaults count towards our dollar liquidity . . . but, that will not be in the best interest of the same set of people who put us in this mess in the first place.

I could go on and on . . .

Bottom line: Only results will/can justify/vindicate the CBN and Emefiele (they are trying, but their best is not good enough; not acceptable). The results right now are piss poor. If the governor thinks the presidency or minister of finance are impediments to his good and invaluable work, he can sure do the honorable thing by resigning.

One would expect with the little fall in imports of rice, PMS (from 40m litres to roughly 20m litres a day), and some other stuffs, the Naira should be getting a breather, but hell naw! Isn't that something to ponder over?

That said, quick one:

what is the total monthly Forex demand of the country as a whole?

what is the total Forex inflow (overseas remittances, investors, crude oil sales and other exports)?

And what are our Forex reserves?

That actually is the proper place to start . . . it is pointless doing this without those figures. If the figures given by the CBN are true, then the CBN's leadership does not know what it is doing.

989900E:


Of course, it is everyone's fault except the CBN's, and Emefiele is just so perfect even with all the policy flip-flops, and somersaults . . . even though it took the CBN 6-7 months to come up with the prevalent Forex policies, it is no fault of theirs that adequate checks and balances are not put in place to make the banks participate in the required manner expected of them in the market.

Emefiele and the CBN's commitment and reactionary policy fabrications is one thing, achieving the desired goal is another. Every other aspect of the economy revolves around sound monetary policies, else fiscal policies would not have the desired effect on the nation's economy.

The CBN spends a fortune in the name of 'mopping up excess liquidity', also raising interests (raising interests dulls the economy), yet the same excess liquidity could be well checked by using the 'Boyo' approach. Ironically, as much as you, I, and everyone else will want the gov't to 'pump' money into the economy, with the tattered monetary policies and uncontrollable fall/epileptic situation of the Niara, it will only worsen the value of the Naira, and further drive up inflation if the proper monetary policies are not in place.

The banks are required to have matching CRRs, but none for the Forex deposits with them -- that's some keg of gunpowder, what happens if any of those banks go bankrupt tomorrow? Many economists, have proffered different smart scenarios to make those idle dollars in them vaults count towards our dollar liquidity . . . but, that will not be in the best interest of the same set of people who put us in this mess in the first place.

I could go on and on . . .

Bottom line: Only results will/can justify/vindicate the CBN and Emefiele (they are trying, but their best is not good enough; not acceptable). The results right now are piss poor. If the governor thinks the presidency or minister of finance are impediments to his good and invaluable work, he can sure do the honorable thing by resigning.

One would expect with the little fall in imports of rice, PMS (from 40m litres to roughly 20m litres a day), and some other stuffs, the Naira should be getting a breather, but hell naw! Isn't that something to ponder over?

That said, quick one:

what is the total monthly Forex demand of the country as a whole?

what is the total Forex inflow (overseas remittances, investors, crude oil sales and other exports)?

And what are our Forex reserves?

That actually is the proper place to start . . . it is pointless doing this without those figures. If the figures given by the CBN are true, then the CBN's leadership does not know what it is doing.

BoboFashion:
At what rate biko, may una no liquidate person money.

989900E:
1. The CBN is both corrupt and clueless at the same time.

2. The banks are some cesspit of profiteering and racketeering, frustrating all monetary policies along with their cronies.

3. Some group of Nigerians (politicians mostly) are going to make most policies null/DOA with the massive amount of stolen monies they need to convert to foreign currencies for easier storage.

4. The CBN under Emefiele is not only weak, but chronically corrupt, thus lacks the will power to really effect the actual policies that should arrest the situation. It is worthy to note, Emefiele supervised the emptying of the treasury, he didn't do it for free, he owes those people, hence he can't really go for the kill (against hoarding). Over $20 billion dollars in dorm accounts in Nigeria, and there is scarcity?

5. Still on hoarding and racketeering, now everyone is doing it -- from Nairalanders to bank staffs, BDCs, government officials, Nigerians overseas, the 'average Joe' . . . but we all want a stable Naira, how ironic?

krendo:
Government of U-turns!!!!!