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MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by Truth234(m): 5:49am On May 22, 2017
As the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy begins its two-day bi-monthly meeting today in Abuja, economic experts and analysts have said the committee is expected to maintain the status quo by keeping the monetary policy instruments at the current levels.

The experts were of the opinion that the MPC would keep the lending rate (Monetary Policy Rate) at the current level of 14 per cent, while the Liquidity Ratio and Cash Reserve Ratio would be held at current levels by the committee.

“We expect the CBN to keep the MPR, CRR and other monetary policy rates at current levels, given the fact that the economy is just coming out of recession,” the Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa, Mr. Ayodeji Ebo, said.

“The CBN foreign exchange policies are yielding results also, and there is a need to look at this before any review of the monetary policy instruments,” he added.

A currency analyst at Ecobank Nigeria, Mr. Kunle Ezun, said the committee would leave the rates as they were currently because there was no need to review them at a time the economy was trying to get its direction.

The National Bureau of Statistics has said the Consumer Price Index, which gauges inflation, increased by 17.24 per cent (year-on-year) though at a slower pace in April, translating to 0.02 percentage points reduction from the 17.26 per cent recorded in March.

According to the NBS, the decline in the headline CPI, which is occurring consecutively for three months, has exhibited effects of some easing in already high food and non-food prices, as well as favourable base effects over 2016 prices.

The Director, Union Capital Limited, Egie Akpata, noted that the overall inflationary trend was down and it seemed “the CBN strategy of constraining naira liquidity and flooding the market with US dollars is having a positive effect.”

“It will take a few more months of this sustained strategy before inflation is brought closer to the CBN target range,” he added.

Generally, he pointed out, inflation was falling a lot slower than predicted, even though “the rise in annual food inflation coupled with a few disease outbreaks affecting a number of key crops is worrying.”

“Unfortunately, the CBN strategy has resulted in extremely high risk free rates making it very difficult for liquidity and credit to flow to the private sector. If the GDP growth remains negative or very weak, the CBN would have to loosen liquidity and cut rates in the next few months so as to be seen as supporting the Federal Government’s effort to reflate the economy,” Akpata added.

http://investorsking.com/mpc-meets-today-cbn-may-hold-key-rates/
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by Amoto94(m): 7:22am On May 22, 2017
It makes absolute sense for CBN to maintain the status quo since there's uncertainty in the international market due to the upcoming election in UK, Trump's presidency, and OPEC proposed meeting and lastly illiquiduity in FX.

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Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by veekid(m): 7:38am On May 22, 2017
Wetin carry me come here sef? Okay! Next?
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by osumak2: 7:39am On May 22, 2017
kiss
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by verygudbadguy(m): 7:41am On May 22, 2017
Dear Emiefele/ Adeosun,
Trust this memo meets you well. I am of the opinion that whatever needs to be done to fix the damage in the economy should be done no matter what. We have suffered enough.

Things need to start getting better. I trust that the acting president would support every action/ effort made in this regard. All the best.

A concerned Nigerian.

Cc: Acting President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo.

2 Likes

Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by dheespectre: 7:42am On May 22, 2017
h
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by kwhiz(m): 7:42am On May 22, 2017
smiley
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by dheespectre: 7:43am On May 22, 2017
hv
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by Nobody: 7:52am On May 22, 2017
God bless PMB & AgPYO

Happy monetary policy meeting
Positive result needed
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by israelmao(m): 7:57am On May 22, 2017
Naira value is rising yet there is little or no impact on market commodities.Instead of using dollar to fight dollar let's develop homegrown technology for export and engage in mechanized farming in order to have more than enough to eat and export in exchange for dollar that is let's use Nigerian products to fight dollar.

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Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by Truth234(m): 8:02am On May 22, 2017
Amoto94:
It makes absolute sense for CBN to maintain the status quo since there's uncertainty in the international market due to the upcoming election in UK, Trump's presidency, and OPEC proposed meeting and lastly illiquiduity in FX.

It actually doesn't make sense to maintain current monetary policy rate. One, the CBN monetary policy has started stalling, meaning the pace of improvement of both the Naira and Price (inflation rate) are below intervention rate. Hence, the CBN needs to empower the masses to stimulate the economy by lowering borrowing cost and institute a complementary fiscal stimulus. The ease of doing business being pursued by the FG will amount to nothing without access to cheap capital, rather foreign investors and few others will take advantage of the policy.

Two, the uncertainty in the US have little to nothing to do with the Nigerian economy. In fact, any political conundrum in the US or call for impeachment like Green did last week will favour Nigeria and other OPEC members, this is because it's the Trump proposed tax cut and stance on climate change that shale producers are banking on going forward. Hence, global oil glut that is complicating OPEC policy.

Theresa May will win on June 8, so it has nothing to do with Nigeria. U.K. is already looking to deepen its relationship with Nigeria, but without good monetary and fiscal policy to encourage broad participation of Nigerians. It will mean little to nothing to the entire economy, U.K. won't sit around for Nigeria to get it right.

With the current investors and exporters forex window that seems to be working and oil above $50/barrel, the CBN can lower interest rate to 13 percent and still maintain capital importation. Instead of giving money to few individuals in the fixed income market.

Just because inflation rose above 4 percent in the US in 1974, president Nixon was almost impeached before he resigned. Here we have 17.24 percent and 14 percent interest rate in an emerging market with high unemployment rate and weak earnings. Yet, people think it's right to maintain the ongoing policy. I am tired of Nigerian experts/analysts joh.

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Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by Amoto94(m): 8:54am On May 22, 2017
Truth234:


It actually doesn't make sense to maintain current monetary policy rate. One, the CBN monetary policy has started stalling, meaning the pace of improvement of both the Naira and Price (inflation rate) are below intervention rate. Hence, the CBN needs to empower the masses to stimulate the economy by lowering borrowing cost and institute a complementary fiscal stimulus. The ease of doing business being pursued by the FG will amount to nothing without access to cheap capital, rather foreign investors and few others will take advantage of the policy.

Two, the uncertainty in the US have little to nothing to do with the Nigerian economy. In fact, any political conundrum in the US or call for impeachment like Green did last week will favour Nigeria and other OPEC members, this is because it's the Trump proposed tax cut and stance on climate change that shale producers are banking on going forward. Hence, global oil glut that is complicating OPEC policy.

Theresa May will win on June 8, so it has nothing to do with Nigeria. U.K. is already looking to deepen its relationship with Nigeria, but without good monetary and fiscal policy to encourage broad participation of Nigerians. It will mean little to nothing to the entire economy, U.K. won't sit around for Nigeria to get it right.

With the current investors and exporters forex window that seems to be working and oil above $50/barrel, the CBN can lower interest rate to 13 percent and still maintain capital importation. Instead of giving money to few individuals in the fixed income market.

Just because inflation rose above 4 percent in the US in 1974, president Nixon was almost impeached before he resigned. Here we have 17.24 percent and 14 percent interest rate in an emerging market with high unemployment rate and weak earnings. Yet, people think it's right to maintain the ongoing policy. I am tired of Nigerian experts/analysts joh.
Your argument is superior to mine hence I'm inclined to agree with it because your knowledge of this sector streets ahead of what I know. I pray for the apex bank to do the needful not the other way round, but in Nigeria things will be done without putting many factors into consideration.

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Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by eanestca(m): 9:26am On May 22, 2017
they better hold rates stable, I have a lot at stake
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by structural94: 11:17am On May 22, 2017
Truth234:


It actually doesn't make sense to maintain current monetary policy rate. One, the CBN monetary policy has started stalling, meaning the pace of improvement of both the Naira and Price (inflation rate) are below intervention rate. Hence, the CBN needs to empower the masses to stimulate the economy by lowering borrowing cost and institute a complementary fiscal stimulus. The ease of doing business being pursued by the FG will amount to nothing without access to cheap capital, rather foreign investors and few others will take advantage of the policy.

Two, the uncertainty in the US have little to nothing to do with the Nigerian economy. In fact, any political conundrum in the US or call for impeachment like Green did last week will favour Nigeria and other OPEC members, this is because it's the Trump proposed tax cut and stance on climate change that shale producers are banking on going forward. Hence, global oil glut that is complicating OPEC policy.

Theresa May will win on June 8, so it has nothing to do with Nigeria. U.K. is already looking to deepen its relationship with Nigeria, but without good monetary and fiscal policy to encourage broad participation of Nigerians. It will mean little to nothing to the entire economy, U.K. won't sit around for Nigeria to get it right.

With the current investors and exporters forex window that seems to be working and oil above $50/barrel, the CBN can lower interest rate to 13 percent and still maintain capital importation. Instead of giving money to few individuals in the fixed income market.

Just because inflation rose above 4 percent in the US in 1974, president Nixon was almost impeached before he resigned. Here we have 17.24 percent and 14 percent interest rate in an emerging market with high unemployment rate and weak earnings. Yet, people think it's right to maintain the ongoing policy. I am tired of Nigerian experts/analysts joh.
WELL..... YOU'VE MADE A GOOD ARGUMENT EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT ALL THE SOLUTIONS YOU MENTIONED CAN BE PROFFERED UNDER THE FISCAL POLICIES AND NOT MONETARY POLICIES.....
I BELIEVE THE CURRENT MONETARY POLICIES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AND IMPROVEMENTS FOCUSED ON ACQUIRING NEW INFLOW OF FX TO THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY THROUGH FDI AND FPI... IMPORT DUTIES CAN BE LOWERED OR WAIVED FOR SOCIALLY DESIRABLE SECTORS TOO. THIS REDUCES THE NEED FOR FX AND IT ENCOURAGES THE GROWTH OF THE SUPPORTED SECTORS.

HOWEVER, FISCAL POLICIES NEEDS TO BE IMPROVED ON AND I AGREE WITH LOWER INTEREST RATES. INADEQUACIES OF THE PRIVATE SECTORS CAN ALSO BE COMPLIMENTED BY THE GOVERNMENT.
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by IBBG(m): 12:06pm On May 22, 2017
The both of you have made very valid. My core grievance with CBN is keeping interest rates high in a recession battered economy, caused by high cost of acquiring capital especially by real sector of the economy, and a contraction in demand caused by a high reduction in the disposable income of consumers due to high inflation.
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by jpphilips(m): 3:13pm On May 23, 2017
Truth234:


It actually doesn't make sense to maintain current monetary policy rate. One, the CBN monetary policy has started stalling, meaning the pace of improvement of both the Naira and Price (inflation rate) are below intervention rate. Hence, the CBN needs to empower the masses to stimulate the economy by lowering borrowing cost and institute a complementary fiscal stimulus. The ease of doing business being pursued by the FG will amount to nothing without access to cheap capital, rather foreign investors and few others will take advantage of the policy.

Two, the uncertainty in the US have little to nothing to do with the Nigerian economy. In fact, any political conundrum in the US or call for impeachment like Green did last week will favour Nigeria and other OPEC members, this is because it's the Trump proposed tax cut and stance on climate change that shale producers are banking on going forward. Hence, global oil glut that is complicating OPEC policy.

Theresa May will win on June 8, so it has nothing to do with Nigeria. U.K. is already looking to deepen its relationship with Nigeria, but without good monetary and fiscal policy to encourage broad participation of Nigerians. It will mean little to nothing to the entire economy, U.K. won't sit around for Nigeria to get it right.

With the current investors and exporters forex window that seems to be working and oil above $50/barrel, the CBN can lower interest rate to 13 percent and still maintain capital importation. Instead of giving money to few individuals in the fixed income market.

Just because inflation rose above 4 percent in the US in 1974, president Nixon was almost impeached before he resigned. Here we have 17.24 percent and 14 percent interest rate in an emerging market with high unemployment rate and weak earnings. Yet, people think it's right to maintain the ongoing policy. I am tired of Nigerian experts/analysts joh.


You complain about inflation on one hand, on the other, you advocate for lower interest rates, pretty counterproductive!!
A lowered interest rate will drive inflation upwards because loads of people will have access to cheap credit, again the factors of production in Nigeria is at an all time low, there are no guarantees those loans won't end up as bad loans anyways.
No country in the world drives inflation with cheap credits, I can't think of any, you may help me out if you can.
Our recessive economy has no other fix if not robust government spending reflected in our ambitious budgets and huge borrowings towards capital expenditure, while that move is a necessary evil, you won't wanna complicate further cash flows by lowering interest rates.
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by Truth234(m): 3:45pm On May 23, 2017
jpphilips:



You complain about inflation on one hand, on the other, you advocate for lower interest rates, pretty counterproductive!!
A lowered interest rate will drive inflation upwards because loads of people will have access to cheap credit, again the factors of production in Nigeria is at an all time low, there are no guarantees those loans won't end up as bad loans anyways.
No country in the world drives inflation with cheap credits, I can't think of any, you may help me out if you can.
Our recessive economy has no other fix if not robust government spending reflected in our ambitious budgets and huge borrowings towards capital expenditure, while that move is a necessary evil, you won't wanna complicate further cash flows by lowering interest rates.

People like you should not be meddling in things like this. You need to first understand what kind of inflation it is, for your information this is a cost push inflation, meaning a persistent rise in the prices of inputs (factors of production), and not a demand pull inflation that can be moderated by adjusting rates.

This simply means by controlling costs of production we can regulate our inflation. In Nigeria, a country that depends on importation for most of her supplies, her cost of production is directly proportional to her cost of imported goods. Therefore, to regulate prices, we must improve our foreign exchange rate by reducing demand through empowering local manufacturers via cheap loans to produce close substitute goods. This will not only ease scarcity but also reduce unemployment, boost wages, increase consumer spending and aid FG diversification agenda, while encouraging exports (foreign revenue generation). Hence, the CBN needs to lower interest rate and spend more to better empowered the masses to stimulate the economy from within, especially the manufacturing and agricultural sectors.

For your information, inflation is this high because costs of production are high and not because there is too much money chasing fewer goods (demand-pull inflation).

Again, the CBN keep rate this high to encourage capital importation and not to moderate consumer prices but with the new fx window that has done about $1.1 billion in trade volume since instituted a month ago. I am positive capital inflow will continue, especially with recovery in-sight by the second quarter.
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by jpphilips(m): 4:27pm On May 23, 2017
Truth234:


People like you should not be meddling in things like this. You need to first understand what kind of inflation it is, for your information this is a cost push inflation, meaning a persistent rise in the prices of inputs (factors of production), and not a demand pull inflation that can be moderated by adjusting rates.

This simply means by controlling costs of production we can regulate our inflation. In Nigeria, a country that depends on importation for most of her supplies, her cost of production is directly proportional to her cost of imported goods. Therefore, to regulate prices, we must improve our foreign exchange rate by reducing demand through empowering local manufacturers via cheap loans to produce close substitute goods. This will not only ease scarcity but also reduce unemployment, boost wages, increase consumer spending and aid FG diversification agenda, while encouraging exports (foreign revenue generation). Hence, the CBN needs to lower interest rate and spend more to better empowered the masses to stimulate the economy from within, especially the manufacturing and agricultural sectors.

For your information, inflation is this high because costs of production are high.

Again, the CBN keep rate this high to encourage capital importation and not to moderate consumer prices but with the new fx window that has done about $1.1 billion in trade volume since instituted a month ago. I am positive capital inflow will continue, especially with recovery in-sight by the second quarter.


I really don't think you have any right to suggest to anybody what and not to meddle in, let me suppose you made a mistake with your opening line.
credit is one out of many factors of production, the question is; in the opportunity cost of all the factors of production that needs to addressed, who stays on top of the pyramid and who goes under? Make no mistakes, I am with you 100% that we need to do something about our cost of funds, where I vehemently disagree is prioritizing cost of funds over other factors of production.

Forex shortages led to high cost of imports and perhaps high taxes, those factors pushed up the prices of goods and services, that wasn't all, the increase in energy cost equally contributed to the problem the reason why our locally produced food crops are suffering high prices. Their reason today is cost of transportation, occasioned by high cost of spare parts and high cost of energy, you may compare the current prices of AGO and PMS with 2015.

Now, the prices are high, more money has to chase fewer and less value today and you expect the government to prioritize cost of funds under the circumstance? where is the wisdom?
The FG is doing something with Dangote to commence local production capacity of petroleum products, that will knock off about 21% demand in forex while we expect lower prices that will later push down transportation costs, you know that will stabilize food prices. In the 2016 and 2017 budget, Transmission (the only power infrastructure still left with the government) got good money for a face lift, don't you think that will improve power supply and drive down cost of production for the same folks you wanna advance lower credit?

I agree that all factors of production including capital need to be addressed however, this is not the time for it else those credits will transmit to non performing loans. won't you rather have an improved power sector before asking for credit for manufacturing? Won't you rather have improved road networks before asking for credit for Transport business?

In April, the CBN reported that total non performing loans of all Nigerian banks hit a whooping 2T naira, so what is the solution to that problem? according to you, advance them cheaper credits? who thinks like that?
The government will rather focus on those factors militating against startups before advancing credits to anyone. That is what I would do if were in their shoes, I don't know about you. lastly, robust government spending is already driving up inflation, you don't wanna advance credits at this point then mop it up when it gets out of control.
Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by Truth234(m): 5:09pm On May 23, 2017
jpphilips:



I really don't think you have any right to suggest to anybody what and not to meddle in, let me suppose you made a mistake with your opening line.
credit is one out of many factors of production, the question is; in the opportunity cost of all the factors of production that needs to addressed, who stays on top of the pyramid and who goes under? Make no mistakes, I am with you 100% that we need to do something about our cost of funds, where I vehemently disagree is prioritizing cost of funds over other factors of production.

Forex shortages led to high cost of imports and perhaps high taxes, those factors pushed up the prices of goods and services, that wasn't all, the increase in energy cost equally contributed to the problem the reason why our locally produced food crops are suffering high prices. Their reason today is cost of transportation, occasioned by high cost of spare parts and high cost of energy, you may compare the current prices of AGO and PMS with 2015.

Now, the prices are high, more money has to chase fewer and less value today and you expect the government to prioritize cost of funds under the circumstance? where is the wisdom?
The FG is doing something with Dangote to commence local production capacity of petroleum products, that will knock off about 21% demand in forex while we expect lower prices that will later push down transportation costs, you know that will stabilize food prices. In the 2016 and 2017 budget, Transmission (the only power infrastructure still left with the government) got good money for a face lift, don't you think that will improve power supply and drive down cost of production for the same folks you wanna advance lower credit?

I agree that all factors of production including capital need to be addressed however, this is not the time for it else those credits will transmit to non performing loans. won't you rather have an improved power sector before asking for credit for manufacturing? Won't you rather have improved road networks before asking for credit for Transport business?

In April, the CBN reported that total non performing loans of all Nigerian banks hit a whooping 2T naira, so what is the solution to that problem? according to you, advance them cheaper credits? who thinks like that?
The government will rather focus on those factors militating against startups before advancing credits to anyone. That is what I would do if were in their shoes, I don't know about you. lastly, robust government spending is already driving up inflation, you don't wanna advance credits at this point then mop it up when it gets out of control.

This is the problem I always have with you, your analysis is not always holistic. What is the percentage of imported goods to locally made goods in Nigeria? It is a known fact that over 90% of our products are imported including toothpick. Again, what is the percentage of transportation cost to the entire cost of production? Why are you mentioning energy cost when marketers have currently stopped the importation of fuel due to their inability to access forex? Is it not the same high exchange rate that is impeding cheap transportation and all other factors of production? Are transporters just changing parts or do they change parts every day? Is it not high cost of importing those parts that are still affecting that aspect of production?

For your information, other factors of production mean nothing in Nigeria. In fact, we have one of the cheapest labour in the world or when last did Nigeria companies increase salaries?

Everything in Nigeria is about cost (credit) and poor business practices by financial institutions, the majority of the non-performing loans you mentioned comes from oil sector after global oil prices plunged. Now, how does that translate to the entire economy if you are trying to diversify the economy?

The other businesses that defaulted on loans did because of high-interest and foreign exchange rates that hinder them from importing raw materials. Therefore, forcing them to default and subsequently fold up. These are less than 10 percent.

Again, the non-performing loans come from the oil sector. The current approach is for the non-oil sector that contributed 91.1 percent of our entire economy. Also, if non-performing loans are not from non-oil sector and yet access to cheap capital is hampering them from growth, why not grant them and revamp the entire economy through real investments? Diversification!

I don't know where you see robust govt spending that is driving inflation (cost-push inflation) that is moderating slower than previously expected. The 2017 budget has not been signed in May, some of the 2016 capital projects are still awaiting funding. Where is the robust? This is my last respond jare.

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Re: MPC Meets Today, CBN May Hold Key Rates by jpphilips(m): 10:37am On May 24, 2017
Truth234 post=56805437]

This is the problem I always have with you, your analysis is not always holistic. What is the percentage of imported goods to locally made goods in Nigeria, it is a known fact that over 90% of our products are imported including toothpick. Again, what is the percentage of transportation cost to the entire cost of production? Why are you mentioning energy cost when marketers have currently stopped the importation of fuel due to their inability to access forex? Is it not the same high exchange rate that is impeding cheap transportation and all other factors of production? Are transporters just changing parts or do they change parts every day? Is it not high cost of importing those parts that are still affecting that aspect of production?

You agree there are other factors of production and the government has opted to prioritize them over cost of funds, what is wrong with that?



For your information, other factors of production mean nothing in Nigeria. In fact, we have one of the cheapest labour in the world or when last did Nigeria companies increase salaries?

Personal opinion and absolute hogwash, personnel salaries and allowance account for 68% of my recurrent expenditure, at least i can speak for myself. When you start dealing with oil and gas unions, tell that rubbish you just said to NUPENG OR PENGASSAN let me see how long you will last in that business. Talk is cheap.



Everything in Nigeria is about cost (credit) and poor business practices by financial institutions, the majority of the non-performing loans you mentioned comes from oil sector after global oil prices plunged. Now, how does that translate to the entire economy if you are trying to diversify the economy?


Every loan advanced not repaid affect the rating of the institution, rating affect credibility and investment confidence, should the CBN lower interest rates, the banks who already have a terrible exposure will still not give you the money, it doesn't matter where they are exposed, there was no proof the exposure was only in oil and gas, i guess you just assumed so, if oil and gas takes the largest chunk, it doesn't still guarantee the banks will advance credit to the manufacturing sector when there is no electricity, low wages, high inflation etc. Banks are not stvpid!!





The other businesses that defaulted on loans did because of high-interest and foreign exchange rates that hinder them from importing raw materials. Therefore, forcing them to default and subsequently fold up. These are less than 10 percent.

Again, the non-performing loans come from the oil sector. The current approach is for the non-oil sector that contributed 91.1 percent of our entire economy. Also, if non-performing loans are not from non-oil sector and yet access to cheap capital is hampering them from growth, why not grant them and revamp the entire economy through real investments? Diversification!


It is funny how you pull out statistics figures from the clouds to bamboozle feeble minds, show us where the bank's non performing loans was analysed to appreciate your 91% claptrap better.



I don't know where you see robust govt spending that is driving inflation (cost-push inflation) that is moderating slower than previously expected. The 2017 budget has not been signed in May, some of the 2016 capital projects are still awaiting funding. Where is the robust? This is my last respond jare.



The capital expenditure of the 2016 budget is still in play till May 5 2017, so far in that budget, over 1 trillion naira has been released to government agencies for capital projects, ignorance doesn't help anyone. help your short sighted analysis on this column.
http://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/business-news/227531-funds-approved-capital-projects-2016-can-utilised-till-may-2017-official.html
When next you respond, make sure you show me the source of the breakdown of the bank's non performing loans

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