The Anambra election has come and gone. What is now in the minds of people are questions begging to be answered. Was the election successfully boycotted? Is APC making a major incursion into the South East?

In this #FlashFacts, we shall answer these questions using historical data from Feb 2, 2010.

In 2010, total number of registered voters was 1844815, while 301232 people were accredited for the election.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2010/02/inec-declares-obi-winner-of-anambra-polls/

This translates to 16% election turn out.

In Nov. 2013, total number of registered voters was 1784536, while 442242 people were accredited for the election.
www.placng.org/situation_room/sr/statistics-of-anambra-state-election-2013/

This means 25% of the election turn out.

In 2015, during the Presidential election, total registered voters according to INEC was 1963427, out of which 774430 total votes were casted, translating to 39% of the election turn out.

https://m.guardian.ng/general-elections-2011/inec-results-live-updates-as-jega-announces-results-of-election-2015-at-press-conference/

In 2017, the turn out was 21%. 2158171 people were registered for the election while 448771 were accredited for the election.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/11/finally-inec-declares-obiano-winner-anambra-governorship-poll/

What does these figures represent? Bearing in mind that National average turn out for Presidential election in 2015 was 42%. 68833476 were registered for the election while 28587564 were accredited.

The turn out was rising steadily from 2010 to 2015 were the record turn-out in the Anambra history was recorded. It grew by 56% in 2013, another 56% in 2015. Using this growth rate, in 2017, 61% of total turn-out was projected which will translate to 1313031 voters.

At the end of the election, turn-out fell by 46% of the 2015 percentage turn-out and 67% of the projected percentage turn-out.

IPOB was wrong. 79% of the registered voters stayed away from voting not the 80% they claimed . Was this a deliberate boycott? WE DON'T KNOW.

Was APC making a major incursion into the South East? No.

Why?

Because in 2010, ACN scored 60,420 (20%) votes and won 3 LGAs. In 2013, APC scored 95963 (22%) winning 2 LGAs and in 2017, they scored 98752 (22%) winning 0 LGA. This translates to 21.3% on average.

But in 2015 Presidential election, only 2% of voters in Anambra voted for APC compared to the 21.3% that voted in 3 different gubernatorial elections. This means that Ndi Anambra were not voting for APC as a party but rather to Ngige (2010, 2013) and Nwoye (2017) as individuals.

And so?

Ceteris Paribus, in 2019 APC will likely score below 2%, not just in Anambra now, but entire South East.

Meaning?

The election result doesn't show APC as a party is making any incursion into the South East.

PDP came third, because Ndi Anambra wants to spite Peter Obi, not because of Buhari's visit because APC retained their meagre 22%.

BY: #SouthEastFacts

The election has come and gone. And a winner has been announced. No room for debate.

Before it was No lefelendum No Erection.

Now we are discussing about 80% boycott. .. If indeed the election was truly boycotted then we don't need all these analysis

Omofunaab2:
Before it was No lefelendum No Erection.

Now we are discussing about 80% boycott. .. If indeed the election was truly boycotted then we don't need all these analysis

79 percent boycott and 80 percent boycott fall within the acceptable margin of error.

PFRB:


79 percent boycott and 80 percent boycott fall within the acceptable margin of error.

Was that what you wished for prior to the election?

You guys were all over nairaland anticipating a total boycott of the election but the turnout of last Saturday's election turned out to be a massive one surpassing that of 2013

OP when are expecting UN verdict on the boycott? They shall do quick and declare Obiano second term an illegitimate regime, right beside Kim jun Un's.

Omofunaab2:
Before it was No lefelendum No Erection.

Now we are discussing about 80% boycott. .. If indeed the election was truly boycotted then we don't need all these analysis

Before IPOB came into the scene, Anambra voters turn out has been growing consistently by 56%.
When IPOB entered the scene, instead of growing by the same 56%, it fell by 46%.

IPOB announced and was celebrating 80% boycott, but statistics shows only 79%.

Omofunaab2:



Was that what you wished for prior to the election?

You guys were all over nairaland anticipating a total boycott of the election but the turnout of last Saturday's election turned out to be a massive one surpassing that of 2013

If you don't understand a thing do not speak about it. TOTAL boycott would mean that even Obiano and his cronies would not vote. Is that possible

PFRB:


If you don't understand a thing do not speak about it. TOTAL boycott would mean that even Obiano and his cronies would not vote. Is that possible

Then it means you guys were dumb when you were calling for total boycott of the election.

Anyway Ndi Anambra has shamed you all

SouthEastFacts:

Before IPOB came into the scene, Anambra voters turn out has been growing consistently by 56%.
When IPOB entered the scene, instead of growing by the same 56%, it fell by 46%.

IPOB announced and was celebrating 80% boycot but statistics shows only 79%.

Emma pitiful just announced that the boycott was 99.9% successful and not more than 10,000 people voted

Omofunaab2:



Emma pitiful just announced that the boycott was 99.9% successful and not more than 10,000 people voted

You don't have to insult.

Post the link please.

Omofunaab2:



http://www.thebiafratimes.co/2017/11/anambra-guber-ipob-tackles-fg-media.html?m=1

Don't mind him. The turn-out according to available statistics is 21%, which is 46% below the turn out of the 2015 Presidential election.