Kelvin Nwaka, a Facebook user took to his timeline some statistical figures on the 2015 election & factual reasons why President Buhari remains in the position to win in 2019 if he seeks reelection.

He wrote?

-2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS BY GEOPOLITICAL ZONEZ

South East
Buhari 198,248
Jonathan 2,464,906

South South
Buhari 418,590 Jonathan 4,714,725

South West
Buhari 2,433,193
Jonathan 1,821,416

North Central
Buhari 2,411,013
Jonathan 1,715,818

North East
Buhari 2,848,678
Jonathan 796,580

North West
Buhari 7,115,199
Jonathan 1,339,709

EXISTED FACTS IN 2015 BUT NOW ABSENT.

(1) Jonathan was the incumbent President, with plenty of funds from the Central Bank to share. This is no longer available to the next PDP candidate.

(2) PDP had above twenty Governors in 2015 and now they have just eleven, thereby reducing their areas of influence.

(3) PDP had Ministers from all the States in 2015 and now has none.

(4) Ondo and Ekiti States from the South West, were under the PDP, Ondo is gone and Ekiti will hold elections in July, 2018 and may be lost to APC.

(5) Anambra Governor worked for Jonathan in 2015, but will not work for PDP in 2019, because of the crisis between Obiano and Obi.

(6) Agricultural revolution, especially that of rice had not taken place in Kebbi and so many other states in 2015 as it is now.

(7) Boko haram has not been decimated in 2015 as it is now. More votes will certainly come to Buhari, from the North East because of this.

( The recent PDP Convention ostracized the South West, with a lot of PDP Yoruba Chieftains like Obanikoro, Folarin, Doyin Okukpe and a host of others leaving the party.

(9) The protracted PDP crisis between Modu Sheriff and Markafi, also led to the exodus of some key members of the party.

(10) No more religious and tribal cards in 2019, as was played by Jonathan and PDP in the entire Southern part of the country in 2015.

(11) Above all, Buhari is the working and workaholic incumbent. Patriotic and sensible Nigerians are beginning to see the positive side of him.

– Is his ascertions right? Please let’s have your thoughts about this.

https://brookinfo.com/facts-why-buhari-will-win-2019-election-kelvin-nwaka/

Out of 15m vote buhari garnered in 2015, 13m base vote is awaiting buhari even without campaign.

And nobody can garner upto 10m vote even with serious campaign with thief OBJ and ibb

Right on point.






PMB TILL 2023 IF GOD WILL.

Go to the NE/NW, they have the number of registered voters with most of them collecting their voters card already, including the underaged.

Don't expect much from those sycophants, they know what they've heard from their mosques already, suffering is their destiny - they've been brainwashed to be like that.

It's more about their ethnic/religious interests than anything.

But check out the stats at the NC/SS/SW, they frustrate people there who are ready to register and those who are registered and are waiting for collection.

If Buhari wins 2019, I won't be surprised. But my vote would surely count against him.

Obviously, Buhari or someone much older from the North would win.

Not because of the flawed statistics but because Buhari, his Northern power brokers together with their foreign backer -
Britain - do not respect due process, hence the rigging mechanism had long been concluded only awaiting implementation.

enough of these yeye talks......just go and get your PVC I think that's our bullet to shoot him back to his hometown...... Period.

I always fear he doesn't run cos if he does, sadly he will win against all odds. ... And Our Nightmare continues

E go do the dullard like magic

Sai Baba

keep deceiving your self

Cromagnon:
you are a fool for calling yoruba fools.it is only ediots that vote for party and candidate that pushed them out of govt.your isolation policy shows the foolishness of the se who thik they can win with 2 out of 6 zones

I am Yoruba and I don’t like how we have continued shielding the North while they have always ride on us. We are acting too submissive to the North and it’s starting to look ugly to me. I have fvcking right to my fvcking opinion so you can fvck off

Optional09:


I am Yoruba and I don’t like how we have continued shielding the North while they have always ride on us. We are acting too submissive to the North and it’s starting to look ugly to me. I have fvcking right to my fvcking opinion so you can fvck off

we don't shield anybody but ourselves
they do not ride on us
without us there is no nigeria
we are not submissive,we are sensible
if we break nigeria there will be no more oyel moni
you have a right to your opinion
but also the right to the reply to said stoopid fvcking opinion
tis a two way street dumasss
and anybody can claim to be yoruba online
but you sound like a bastard than a omoluabi

He will win. I did a similar analysis recently

Optional09:


Omo mala

wetin happen
you run go meet mommy after you think say you get bad mouth
your brain small o

The candidate against buhari in 2019 would be a fellow northerner. The northern votes would be split

Most of the points highlighted by the Op are very valid, Buhari is very likely going to win again if he contests. The 'loudest' voices of opposition against Buhari are still the same voices that screamed against him in 2015 but couldn't still pull the required numbers despite PDPs power of incumbency.

Right now with APC's current confusion and daily failures, coupled with the lackadaisical handling of the herdsmen crisis, this should have been a right time for PDP to get its act together and produce a solid candidate; but then again, its really complicated. A PDP candidate from the north could divide Buhari's votes, but then, a northern PDP candidate would also result in serious voter apathy in the SE and SS (cos only die hard passionate buhari haters would step out to go vote in order to just remove Buhari). If PDP brings a southern candidate (which is very unlikely), it has to be a person that would be acceptable across the entire south (e.g. Duke); else the Yoruba vs Igbo feud would just gift Buhari a landslide. Any way one looks at it, it doesnt seem like buhari is going anywhere yet, exvept he decides to step down.

obailala:
Most of the points highlighted by the Op are very valid, Buhari is very likely going to win again if he contests. The 'loudest' voices of opposition against Buhari are still the same voices that screamed against him in 2015 but couldn't still pull the required numbers despite PDPs power of incumbency.

Right now with APC's current confusion and daily failures, coupled with the lackadaisical handling of the herdsmen crisis, this should have been a right time for PDP to get its act together and produce a solid candidate; but then again, its really complicated. A PDP candidate from the north could divide Buhari's votes, but then, a northern PDP candidate would also result in serious voter apathy in the SE and SS (cos only die hard passionate buhari haters would step out to go vote in order to just remove Buhari). If PDP brings a southern candidate (which is very unlikely), it has to be a person that would be acceptable across the entire south (e.g. Duke); else the Yoruba vs Igbo feud would just gift Buhari a landslide. Any way one looks at it, it doesnt seem like buhari is going anywhere yet, exvept he decides to step down.

Suplexx:
He will win. I did a similar analysis recently

buhariguy:
Out of 15m vote buhari garnered in 2015, 13m base vote is awaiting buhari even without campaign.

And nobody can garner upto 10m vote even with serious campaign with thief OBJ and ibb

EzeCanada:
Obviously, Buhari or someone much older from the North would win.

Not because of the flawed statistics but because Buhari, his Northern power brokers together with their foreign backer -
Britain - do not respect due process, hence the rigging mechanism had long been concluded only awaiting implementation.

Harrynight:
I always fear he doesn't run cos if he does, sadly he will will against all odds. ...
Our Nightmare continues

anibirelawal:
Right on point.

All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

Buhari needs 25% of the votes in 24 states, but he will very easily get that 25% from 26 states. The only states where he will struggle to get 25% are the 5 SE and 5 SS states (i.e. 5 when you exclude Edo).

In terms of total number of votes, you need to remember that PDP secured many votes in 2015 because plenty people were passionate about GEJ and PDP also had the power of incumbency. Now the northern crowd due to ethnic and religious sentiments will still kill themselves in 2019 to vote Buhari, even supported with their horde of underaged voters. But just imagine when PDP fronts a northern candidate, do you think a typical Igbo man will leave his shop to go stand under the sun and rain to vote for 'another Hausa man' all because he hates Buhari?... nobody really got time for that. There isnt any Jonathan whom people are passionate about anymore, voter turn out in the SS and SE amd even the SW would be much lower than in 2015; the fact is that people havent been provided with any hopeful choice, so a lot of people (southerners) lamenting now would end up not bothering themselves during the election for lack of a promising alternative. Hating buhari isnt enough of an incentive to wake and push people to go vote, but you can be sure that the love and passion for their candidate would keep the entire north awake.

Buhari has won already!!!?

Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

Look closely at 2011 election, you will see massive rigging against Buhari. The figures from South East States were rigged in favour of Jonathan. Same with South South.

For instance, Abia state which is one of the least populated states in Nigeria had more voters than Oyo. Nearly as many voters as Kano and Lagos.

But when card reader was used, Abia state had only 300k voters in 2015 as compared to 1.1m in 2011

Suplexx:


Look closely at 2011 election, you will see massive rigging against Buhari. The figures from South East States were rigged in favour of Jonathan. Same with South South.

For instance, Abia state which is one of the least populated states in Nigeria had more voters than Oyo. Nearly as many voters as Kano and Lagos.

But when card reader was used, Abia state had only 300k voters in 2015 as compared to 1.1m in 2011

First of all, you are wrong by saying Abia is one of the least populated states. Aba is the most populated city in the SE.

Do you think that the North did not rig elections for Buhari? How come there were no cancelled votes in the entire Kano state? What about the almajiris and underaged voters in the north?

The Card reader malfunctioned in many parts of the SE/SS..... Many areas of the SS quickly started manual thumbprinting but the SE areas did not. This was why their votes were lower.

obailala:
Buhari needs 25% of the votes in 24 states, but he will very easily get that 25% from 26 states. The only states where he will struggle to get 25% are the 5 SE and 5 SS states (i.e. 5 when you exclude Edo).

In terms of total number of votes, you need to remember that PDP secured many votes in 2015 because plenty people were passionate about GEJ and PDP also had the power of incumbency. Now the northern crowd due to ethnic and religious sentiments will still kill themselves in 2019 to vote Buhari, even supported with their horde of underaged voters. But just imagine when PDP fronts a northern candidate, do you think a typical Igbo man will leave his shop to go stand under the sun and rain to vote for 'another Hausa man' all because he hates Buhari?... nobody really got time for that. There isnt any Jonathan whom people are passionate about anymore, voter turn out in the SS and SE amd even the SW would be much lower than in 2015; the fact is that people havent been provided with any hopeful choice, so a lot of people (southerners) lamenting now would end up not bothering themselves during the election for lack of a promising alternative. Hating buhari isnt enough of an incentive to wake and push people to go vote, but you can be sure that the love and passion for their candidate would keep the entire north awake.

First of all, you were very wrong in your 2nd paragraph, when you said that people were still passionate about GEJ in 2015. ........your point on incumbency may have some weight, but not on any passion.

Except for the people of SS/SE who are heavily anti-APC and vote based on sentiments, no other region was passionate about GEJ. ......This was why my region the middlebelt who gave GEJ massive and millions of votes and many states in 2011, drastically reduced our support for him in 2015. We were dissapointed in him and we believed Buhari's change slogan. Same thing happened in the SW. But now I think we know better. So, what passion are you talking about?

2ndly, when you talk about the entire north being locked down for Buhari in 2019. I don't know if you are including the middlebelt in your definition of entire north?
Are you including the tens of millions of northern christians in the north to the die-hard ethnic and religious support for Buhari?

If you are, then I think you need some more lessons on the demography of northern & middlebelt Nigeria.

obailala:
Buhari needs 25% of the votes in 24 states, but he will very easily get that 25% from 26 states. The only states where he will struggle to get 25% are the 5 SE and 5 SS states (i.e. 5 when you exclude Edo).

In terms of total number of votes, you need to remember that PDP secured many votes in 2015 because plenty people were passionate about GEJ and PDP also had the power of incumbency. Now the northern crowd due to ethnic and religious sentiments will still kill themselves in 2019 to vote Buhari, even supported with their horde of underaged voters. But just imagine when PDP fronts a northern candidate, do you think a typical Igbo man will leave his shop to go stand under the sun and rain to vote for 'another Hausa man' all because he hates Buhari?... nobody really got time for that. There isnt any Jonathan whom people are passionate about anymore, voter turn out in the SS and SE amd even the SW would be much lower than in 2015; the fact is that people havent been provided with any hopeful choice, so a lot of people (southerners) lamenting now would end up not bothering themselves during the election for lack of a promising alternative. Hating buhari isnt enough of an incentive to wake and push people to go vote, but you can be sure that the love and passion for their candidate would keep the entire north awake.

Less I also forget, I can bet you that Buhari will find it difficullt to secure 25% votes in Benue & Plateau states.

Forget the fact that we have APC governors in both states, the hatred for Buhari is now strong in both states.
And don't forget that both states are overwhemingly christian in population, so there will be no strong muslim minority who will vote based on religious sentiments and deliver the 25% votes for Buhari here.

Nowenuse:



Less I also forget, I can bet you that Buhari will find it difficullt to secure 25% votes in Benue & Plateau states.

Forget the fact that we have APC governors in both states, the hatred for Buhari is now strong in both states.
And don't forget that both states are overwhemingly christian in population, so there will be no strong muslim minority who will vote based on religious sentiments and deliver the 25% votes for Buhari here.

Lol... very wrong assumptions, Buhari actually WON in those 2 states in 2015 even with the Christian population. Whilst it would be near impossible for him to win those states again in 2019 (especially Benue), gaining 25% would be a walk in the park (might be slightly difficult in Benue though).

obailala:
Lol... very wrong assumptions, Buhari actually WON in those 2 states in 2015 even with the Christian population. Whilst it would be near impossible for him to win those states again in 2019 (especially Benue), gaining 25% would be a walk in the park (might be slightly difficult in Benue though).

Now I know that I have discussing with a politcally ignorant person. How can you say Buhari won Plateau in 2015? My own state?

Oga Goodluck won Buhari in Plateau state with around 100k votes. Go and check the records again! Buhari hss never and can never win in Plateau & Nasarawa states in the NC. APC only won in the governorship elections. Pls don't misinform people here and disgrace yourself!