Yeye dey worry you, I think say you go say you go resign your paid Job, wetin concern person if you resign as NL mod afterall your tenure don dey elapse, abi you don apply for tenure elongation ?

On a serious note I agree KATSINA will be almost impossible for GEJ , but Kaduna should not. Yes Buhari has his following there, but remember that YAKOWA and to some extent Sambo's career depend on their ability to deliver KADUNA ,so GEJ should have a good showing there.

GEJ will definitely put up a good showing in Kaduna due, not to Sambo, but to Southern Kaduna factor, but even if it's 60-40, Buhari has it. Quote me. Sambo is a lightweight.

na_so:

To  win the elections GEJ needs to score more votes than other contestants and have at least 25% of the votes in 24 states. So far nothing suggest that GEJ will not meet this requirement in the first run.

HE Cannot scroe 25% in 24 states except if he rigs, if you think otherwise, then show us how and where he's likely going to get the 25% votes.

One more thing, NW and NC alone has most of the votes and that part belongs to Buhari hands down.

agabaI23:

I wish we can discuss politics devoid of ethnicity and religion. I knew about that grudge but being a VP is an advantage to any people and it is celebrated. But if they cannot celebrate his new position because of religion, why will you be shy to bring it in since it is the major factor in this instance. You are jubilating that a state will not vote for a candidate because they were 'betrayed' religiously not due to political reasons. Is that right Jarus? I thought voting would have been based on merit. Now according to you they are going to vote based on religious sentiment which is what you have been against and it still gladdens your heart. . . Right?

No, I'm not jubilating, I just did my analysis based on reality, which was glaring. Will I say because the reason is not sound enough, I'll be blind to it? Will I say all is well with Kaduna North people and Sambo because what they are nursing against one another is less than noble? Does saying what is obvious amount to endorsement?

And where you shot yourself in the leg, you mentioned 'southern Kaduna' factor? What is motivating the Southern Kaduna people if not because Yakowa(current PDP governor) is one of their own(ethnicity) and GEJ is a Christian(religion)? Southern Kaduna factor, like the northern Kaduna factor, is nothing but religion and ethnicity. And in the final analysis, teh northern Kaduna, based on theri numerical strenght, are carrying the day.

It's no endorsement, it's a statement of reality, of fact.

10cirenoh:

HE Cannot scroe 25% in 24 states except if he rigs, if you think otherwise, then show us how and where he's likely going to get the 25% votes.

One more thing, NW and NC alone has most of the votes and that part belongs to Buhari hands down.

This guy you are so funny. At the moment GEJ WILL MAKE 25% IN EVERY STATE IN THE SOUTH (SW,SE,SS). He will also make 25% in EVERY STATE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. That makes it 23 states in ALL. In the NE he will not just make 25% in some states, he will actually win some. He will definitely make 25% in kaduna .


Summary is that GEJ will make 25% in atleast 30 states. mark my words.

Jarus:

No, I'm not jubilating, I just did my analysis based on reality, which was glaring. Will I say because the reason is not sound enough, I'll be blind to it? Will I say all is well with Kaduna North people and Sambo because what they are nursing against one another is less than noble? Does saying what is obvious amount to endorsement?

And where you shot yourself in the leg, you mentioned 'southern Kaduna' factor? What is motivating the Southern Kaduna people if not because Yakowa(current PDP governor) is one of their own(ethnicity) and GEJ is a Christian(religion)? Southern Kaduna factor, like the northern Kaduna factor, is nothing but religion and ethnicity. And in the final analysis, teh northern Kaduna, based on theri numerical strenght, are carrying the day.

It's no endorsement, it's a statement of reality, of fact.

NO I did not shoot myself in the leg because I know that politics of ethnicity and religion is still very rife in most part of the country especially in the North. You are the one who said you do not like to bring in those factors where as in your own word, it is the reality on ground.

Yes I mentioned the southern factor because of the religious and ethnicity issues. Therefore I do not understand how I have shot myself in the leg .

I do agree with you that  the numerical strength of the Northern Kaduna will work to their favour but that is if we assume that everybody from Northern Kaduna now hates Sambo. My bros, that is a huge and dangerous assumption if you are vying for a political office.

Again this is Nigeria where people pay allegiance to money rather than objectivity (this is not good). With the right amount of money, the governor even though a southerner will get some of  the Northern local chiefs to his side if not all of them.  

Yes they may begrudge him but I do believe that the hatred will be all encompassing. Anything is possible with religion in the north anyway.

na_so:

This guy you are so funny. At the moment GEJ WILL MAKE 25% IN EVERY STATE IN THE SOUTH (SW,SE,SS). He will also make 25% in EVERY STATE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. That makes it 23 states in ALL. In the NE he will not just make 25% in some states, he will actually win some. He will definitely make 25% in kaduna .


Summary is that GEJ will make 25% in atleast 30 states. mark my words.

I am not being funny, you think he's going to make 25% in all the SW states? that's a lie, SE and SS i agree, but not SW bro. even in Kaduna, he won't make up to 25%, believe me.

Which state is he going to win in NE? which 30 states is he going to win 25% from? just list them and lets analyse.

10cirenoh:

I am not being funny, you think he's going to make 25% in all the SW states? that's a lie, SE and SS i agree, but not SW bro. even in Kaduna, he won't make up to 25%, believe me.

Which state is he going to win in NE? which 30 states is he going to win 25% from? just list them and lets analyse.

1 million Tinubu's can not stop GEJ from getting atleast 30% of the votes in LAGOS and for other SW states like ONDO were MIMIKO is working for GEJ it will be a clean sweep.

And why will GEJ not make 25% in Kaduna, do you know what you are talking about at all?

For NE GEJ will definitely win Taraba.

na_so:


1 million Tinubu's can not stop GEJ from getting atleast 30% of the votes in LAGOS and for other SW states like ONDO were MIMIKO is working for GEJ it will be a clean sweep.

And why will GEJ not make 25% in Kaduna, do you know what you are talking about at all?

For NE GEJ will definitely win Taraba.

Apparently the scanty crowd in TBS represents 30% of the over 6 million voters who registered in Lagos abi? Keep deluding yourself. GEJ will be whitewashed in Lagos, even if he releases all the criminals in kirikiri to help him do the election rigging.

9ijaMan:

Apparently the scanty crowd in TBS represents 30% of the over 6 million voters who registered in Lagos abi? Keep deluding yourself. GEJ will be whitewashed in Lagos, even if he releases all the criminals in kirikiri to help him do the election rigging.

So what percentage does it represent? How many people even knew GEJ was coming to town? So those that went to TBS are the only people that will vote?

na_so:

So what percentage does it represent? How many people even knew GEJ was coming to town?  So those that went to TBS are the only people that will vote?

I dey laugh o! Can you see how smart you are. Your GEJ came to Lagos to campaign and you are confirming to us on NL that people were not aware. Hmmmm.
GEJ is not just any candidate, he's the incumbent candidate for crying out loud sake and you are so engrossed in you blind love for this unpopular candidate that you even fail to see the truth!

How dumb can GEJ followers really get?

^ And what was the crowd like when BB visited?

Oh I forgot they are still planning to start

9ijaMan:

I dey laugh o! Can you see how smart you are. Your GEJ came to Lagos to campaign and you are confirming to us on NL that people were not aware. Hmmmm.
GEJ is not just any candidate, he's the incumbent candidate for crying out loud sake and you are so engrossed in you blind love for this unpopular candidate that you even fail to see the truth!

How dumb can GEJ followers really get?

I am  smarter than everyone in  your entire family tree.

And you think you were  smart for saying that the crowd at TBS does not come close  to 30% of 6 million.

My problem with a lot of you that lay claim to be progressive minded is that  you seem to be  saying  " democracy is about freedom of choice, but if you choose this candidate then you are dull or have been bribed" Then I ask where is the  freedom of choice?

best analysis on this forum for awhile

na_so:


1 million Tinubu's can not stop GEJ from getting atleast 30% of the votes in LAGOS and for other SW states like ONDO were MIMIKO is working for GEJ it will be a clean sweep.

And why will GEJ not make 25% in Kaduna, do you know what you are talking about at all?

For NE GEJ will definitely win Taraba.

Lol, Lagosians don't vote on sentiments nor ethnicity, so sorry for you, nothing like 30% vote for GEJ in Lagos except you want to be living in a lala world, Lagosian are more exposed and you'd be surprise to see Buhari/Bakare pull most of the votes.

Bakare and Lagos and Ogun state? hope you understand the influence? go and check 2003 election table, check the SW states ANPP won, then come and tell us if you think BB2011 won't fair well in SW.

It seems you don't know Kaduna very well, go and check 2003 and 2007 election result for ANPP even though people were not as exposed as now then.

Taraba? i dey laugh, bro, let me quit debating what's not going to yield anything to anyone's life, the real deal is at the poll.

na_so:

I am  smarter than everyone in  your entire family tree.

And you think you were  smart for saying that the crowd at TBS does not come close  to 30% of 6 million.

My problem with a lot of you that lay claim to be progressive minded is that  you seem to be  saying  " democracy is about freedom of choice, but if you choose this candidate then you are dull or have been bribed" Then I ask where is the  freedom of choice?

In case you fail to know how to do a simple math calculation, 30% of 6 million is 1.8 million. The crown at your benefactors rally at TBS are not even up to 5,000 and you claim that GEJ will win 30%. Even in your dreams, GEJ can't win 5% of Lagos votes!

9ijaMan:

In case you fail to know how to do a simple math calculation, 30% of 6 million is 1.8 million. The crown at your benefactors rally at TBS are not even up to 5,000 and you claim that GEJ will win 30%. Even in your dreams, GEJ can't win 5% of Lagos votes!

I suspect you dont know the capacity of the TBS, do you expect the 1.8 million people to show up at TBS? I am simply making it very clear to you that the crowd at TBS has little or nothing to do with the votes GEJ will get from Lagos . QED

na_so:

I suspect you dont know the capacity of the TBS, do you expect the 1.8 million people to show up at TBS? I am simply making it very clear to you that the crowd at TBS has little or nothing to do with the votes GEJ will get from Lagos . QED

Even if TBS is just 30k, less than 2k people were seen there, GEJ was waving to security men lol

na_so:

I suspect you dont know the capacity of the TBS, do you expect the 1.8 million people to show up at TBS? I am simply making it very clear to you that the crowd at TBS has little or nothing to do with the votes GEJ will get from Lagos . QED

If an incumbent president who's contesting an election based on his popularity cannot have upto 5,000 of his supporters at his campaign venue in the 2nd most populous state (based on latest censors figures) or the most populous state based on registered eligible voters, then he must be basing hsi popularity on a completely false premise.

I'll advice you to join the BB train and not to waste your vote, that's if you are old enough to vote sef!

[size=20pt]Vote Buhari-Bakare 2011[/size] _{for the future of our children}

Attached is a Microsoft Excel model that can be used to project the April 2011 presidential election. I built this model using the numbers that eku_bear provided in his google spreadsheet as a foundation. Based on the results you see here, I project that there is a long-shot possibility that a runoff election could happen. However it is highly unlikely. Due to the lack of publicly available scientific polling we can only go by perception of public opinion based on anecdotal evidence.

The result of this analysis gives Buhari 40.8%, Jonathan 40.6%, and Ribadu + Other candidates 18.6%. The analysis uses 2003 election to measure the level of support that General Buhari has in the North. Hence I assume that he wins every state that he won in 2003. However, I am assuming the level of enthusiasm in the North will be stronger because of the zoning issue hence, he will win the states he won in 2003 by a slightly higher margin than he did in 2003. I assume that Ribadu will cut into the votes Jonathan would otherwise have gotten in the North (especially the North Central) because Jonathan and Ribadu both appeal to moderates in the North. It is important to note that I assume that the ANPP governors in the Northwest and Northeast did not rig the election in 2003.

If Buhari carries the day with the popular vote, he will most likely not meet the INEC requirement of, 25% of the votes in 24 states, to be declared winner based on the first ballot. Hence the possibility of a runoff. In this analysis I assume that he will hit the 25% threshold in 20 states.

I understand that an objective analysis showing the election result if it is conducted today will give Goodluck something in the neighborhood of 47%, Buhari 37%, Ribadu and Others 16%. However, the election is not over and word on the street is that PDP is concerned about the possibility of a runoff. Since they have access to scientific polling and we don't, I am beginning to think that a runoff is possible (although highly unlikely)

Please feel free to make your edits to the spreadsheet and re post for all of us to see. You can edit the results by editing the second tab titled "Inputs and Assumptions". You can edit the cells that are colored in "yellow".

I look forward to hearing your thoughts and insight.

Cheers!!!

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0ApAknCjeDJMjdHBUQ29FRjRqVTBrSXU4ZUliR1ZKVVE&output=xls
N.B: Please see attachment. The attachment is better than the link

danjohn:

Attached is a Microsoft Excel model that can be used to project the April 2011 presidential election. I built this model using the numbers that eku_bear provided in his google spreadsheet as a foundation. Based on the results you see here, I project that there is a long-shot possibility that a runoff election could happen. However it is highly unlikely. Due to the lack of publicly available scientific polling we can only go by perception of public opinion based on anecdotal evidence.

The result of this analysis gives Buhari 40.8%, Jonathan 40.6%, and Ribadu + Other candidates 18.6%. The analysis uses 2003 election to measure the level of support that General Buhari has in the North. Hence I assume that he wins every state that he won in 2003. However, I am assuming the level of enthusiasm in the North will be stronger because of the zoning issue hence, he will win the states he won in 2003 by a slightly higher margin than he did in 2003. I assume that Ribadu will cut into the votes Jonathan would otherwise have gotten in the North (especially the North Central) because Jonathan and Ribadu both appeal to moderates in the North. It is important to note that I assume that the ANPP governors in the Northwest and Northeast did not rig the election in 2003.

If Buhari carries the day with the popular vote, he will most likely not meet the INEC requirement of, 25% of the votes in 24 states, to be declared winner based on the first ballot. Hence the possibility of a runoff. In this analysis I assume that he will hit the 25% threshold in 20 states.

I understand that an objective analysis showing the election result if it is conducted today will give Goodluck something in the neighborhood of 47%, Buhari 37%, Ribadu and Others 16%. However, the election is not over and word on the street is that PDP is concerned about the possibility of a runoff. Since they have access to scientific polling and we don't, I am beginning to think that a runoff is possible (although highly unlikely)

Please feel free to make your edits to the spreadsheet and re post for all of us to see. You can edit the results by editing the second tab titled "Inputs and Assumptions". You can edit the cells that are colored in "yellow".

I look forward to hearing your thoughts and insight.

Cheers!!!

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0ApAknCjeDJMjdHBUQ29FRjRqVTBrSXU4ZUliR1ZKVVE&output=xls
N.B: Please see attachment. The attachment is better than the link

I must admit you've done a wonderful job. I plan to have a more critical look at what you done. However, my first look tells me you've credited Jonathan with much more votes than he can win in Lagos. If ACN and CPC do not come together, Buhari will come second behind Ribadu in most of the ACN controlled states which would likely include Lagos, Ogun (ACN will probably clinch the gubernatorial seat), Osun, and Ekiti states. Oyo will like be shared equally.
I also share your sentiment that Ribadu may hurt GEJ more than he'll be able to hurt Buhari, however, I be a lot more careful to dwell on that.

Overall it was an excellent job you did.

@danjohn: Nice work!

Good job @danJohn
I cannot fault you have done because they are based on your 'educated' guess.

I only made a correction in the South east entry.
However if you remember that the 2003 election was fully rigged, this will hold if we also assume that the rigging will be repeated.

But because we are looking free and fair election (hopefully), the dynamics will surely change. The only places you can predict with about 70% certainty is the Sokotos and the Kanos in the north and the Rivers and Bayelsas in the south.
The other regions can be close calls as well as block votes.
We shall see.

Thanks 9ijaMan, eku_bear, and agabaI23.  9ijaMan the reason why I gave Jonathan the numbers I gave him in Lagos is because there seems to be a perception in the Christian community in the South West that the presidency is Mr. Jonathan's destiny.  They feel like it is divine.  That in itself puts him in a decent position.  I guess I should have separated Lagos, however, for the South West, South South, South East, we can only judge things based on "perception" for now.  Thus, that is why I gave each state the same margin.  Hopefully we can get some scientific polling soon.  NOI has yet to publish any polling about this race.  It will really help if they did.

agabaI23 please post your updated version of the file as an attachment.  As for 2003, I only used 2003 to measure Buhari's support in the North.  Buhari won 11 states in 2003.  I am assuming that ANPP did not have the political muscle to rig in the states where Buhari won, thus, 2003 will be a decent reflection of Buhari's popularity in the North.  In the Southeast, Southwest, and Southsouth.  I tried to make educated guesses.

[size=20pt]It is Possible Vote Buhari-Bakare 2011[/size] _{for the future of our children}

@danjohn, I forgot to attach it. It is attached now. Just minor, Buhari won't survive much in the South east, scare tactic will work very well there. If you remember northern riots and Igbo casualties.

danjohn:

Thanks 9ijaMan, eku_bear, and agabaI23.  9ijaMan the reason why I gave Jonathan the numbers I gave him in Lagos is because there seems to be a perception in the Christian community in the South West that the presidency is Mr. Jonathan's destiny.  They feel like it is divine.  That in itself puts him in a decent position.  I guess I should have separated Lagos, however, for the South West, South South, South East, we can only judge things based on "perception" for now.  Thus, that is why I gave each state the same margin.  Hopefully we can get some scientific polling soon.  NOI has yet to publish any polling about this race.  It will really help if they did.

agabaI23 please post your updated version of the file as an attachment.  As for 2003, I only used 2003 to measure Buhari's support in the North.  Buhari won 11 states in 2003.  I am assuming that ANPP did not have the political muscle to rig in the states where Buhari won, thus, 2003 will be a decent reflection of Buhari's popularity in the North.  In the Southeast, Southwest, and Southsouth.  I tried to make educated guesses.

Nice job bruv, u beat me to this. I actually prepared a similar spreadsheet but was to having problem sharing it.

GEJ/PDP stands no change in Lagos this year at all. Reasons:

* Unlike 2003 & 2007 PDP candidate is totally unpopular
* GEJ has made a very big gaffe in Ibadan and trust ACN they wont stop reminding Lagosian of his statement
* Most Lagosians are educated (from all parts of Nigeria) and they vote based on conviction and performance
* GEJ is regarded as dull, uninspiring, lacking leadership charisma and more importantly dishonest by most Lagasians
* The PDP rally of today is a sign of what to happen to PDP in Lagos April, they have never had it that bad in Lagos
* Fashola has warmed himself to the hearts to most Lagosians and most people will just concatenate to ACN from wards to Presidential ballots
* The Bakare factor on the Buhari ticket is going to play-out as many independent minds that would have voted GEJ on religion sentiments will be giving their votes to Bakare.


Its a shame GEJ did not live to our expectations leaving us with know choice that to follow the best out of the pack.,.,.,

[size=20pt]Vote Buhari-Bakare 2011[/size] _{for the future of our children}

My own guess is that it will come down to a run off.

Why don't any of these Nigeria media houses have polls so we can get a sense of things

eku_bear:

My own guess is that it will come down to a run off.

Why don't any of these Nigeria media houses have polls so we can get a sense of things

They can never be able to come up with objective analysis/polls 'coz they are mostly biased since they often sway their opinions in favor of the candidate/party with the highest cash to dole out. Nigerians media is reports are often sold to the highest bidder.

@Omooba77,
Post something else from Soyinka. The article you posted is stale news.

http://buharibakarevolunteers.net/contacts.php
visit this link to find out the contact person of each state for volunteers in the BB campaign