Ozin:

It is too close to call in Delta but the ruling party is very competitive there.

dayokanu:

Is there going to be a Governorship election in Delta?

Is there going to be a Governorship election in Delta?

Onlytruth:

Posted by: dayokanu
This is the most credible polling ever conducted in Nigeria since after the party primaries.

So, it is time for the daftokanus and the dayODEs of nairaland to STFU!

Jonathan leads in all Southern states with the exception of Ekiti, where Ribadu has a 54-per-cent score, and Osun, which is considered too close to call, even though Jonathan leads. Ribadu and Shekarau had a strong showing in the state, thereby making it difficult to call for Jonathan.

In Lagos, for instance, over 80 per cent of the polled voters said they would vote for Jonathan (PDP presidential), while 92 per cent said they would vote for Babatunde Fashola (ACN) in the governorship election.

Also, PDP is in danger of losing the governorship elections in four of the states it currently controls – Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue and Imo.

A similar scenario is playing out in Benue State where the PDP governor, Hon. Gabriel Suswam, is trailing the ACN candidate, Professor Steve Ugbah. Suswam has 19 per cent, while his rival has 72 per cent.

The battle ground states for governorship, according to the survey, are Kebbi, Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno, Oyo and Delta.

chigo4u:

Yeah, this list is never to be taken seriously because nigerians online are not up to 30 percent of the voting populace and how many people even voted? Let us no. Of course southerners are MORE popular in number than northerners online so jonathan can win the internet poll. If you want to carry a valid poll, go on ground or even use free or cheap sms voting. Whats happening in imo btw? Not looking pretty good for the governor. I hear he is #

Speaking to THISDAY yesterday on the latest polling results, the CEO for Sub-Saharan Africa, David Somers, said: “We initially designed a very large sample to cover the entire country. It’s a sample of 11,000 approximately of what we did in every state that will allow us to have estimate per state and in general. We conducted face to face interviews and as we talk to people in local dialects and personally on the ground, we asked people a series of questions about how they feel about life and about things in general and about things they want from their politicians. And ultimately for whom they will vote for whether at the presidential level or at the gubernatorial level. It’s honestly a traditional poll which we do all over the world.

“So the way we arrived at figures was to go to all the states, interview the people within those states and then aggregate all the data from the states up to a national level. We rate data accordingly so that each state will be represented correctly within the total national figure by the census and also by the voter registration. So we used as a waiting measure plus some other factors which we discovered while we went into this and that is how we got the national figures.”

[b]Speaking to THISDAY yesterday on the latest polling results, the CEO for Sub-Saharan Africa, David Somers, said: “We initially designed a very large sample to cover the entire country. It’s a sample of 11,000 approximately of what we did in every state that will allow us to have estimate per state and in general. We conducted face to face interviews and as we talk to people in local dialects and personally on the ground, we asked people a series of questions about how they feel about life and about things in general and about things they want from their politicians. And ultimately for whom they will vote for whether at the presidential level or at the gubernatorial level. It’s honestly a traditional poll which we do all over the world.

“So the way we arrived at figures was to go to all the states, interview the people within those states and then aggregate all the data from the states up to a national level. We rate data accordingly so that each state will be represented correctly within the total national figure by the census and also by the voter registration. So we used as a waiting measure plus some other factors which we discovered while we went into this and that is how we got the national figures.”[/b]

Ozin:


where Ribadu has a 54-per-cent score, and Osun, which is considered[b] too close to call[/b], even though Jonathan leads. Ribadu and Shekarau had a strong showing in the state, thereby making it[b] difficult to call[/b] for Jonathan.

The PDP is also competitive in Oyo and Kaduna, where it holds narrow margins. In Borno, the poll favours the ruling party. It is too close to call in Delta but the ruling party is very competitive there.

eku_bear:

^-- Polling is statistical in nature.

If you survey 1000 people in Denver, Colorado and get 504 for candidate #1, 496 for candidate #2, Candidate #1 is ahead. But it'd be too close to say anything definitive.

On the other hand, if Candidate #1 is up 700 votes to 180, then that seems well outside the margin of error (assuming that the poll is well-designed.)

Some caveats:
1) People changing their minds over time
2) Possibility of a poorly-designed poll
3) Poll was taken from Feb 25th to March 16th, so is less trustworthy than a poll taken on March 29th (for example.)
4) No other polls taken by internationally reputed firms (here in the US, you typically will have several polling firms.)

Still, the poll has a lot of value. Especially given that it was done by Ipsos. This is an international firm with lots of experience polling.

80% of Lagos Voters said they'll vote for Jonathan


Come on. Give me a break. No way Jonathan can get 60% of Lagos votes. Even if the Southerns and South-easterners vote for him, I doubt the Hausas and a good portion of the Yorubas will vote in his favor.

baksonlee:

This poll lacks credibility, Thisday CEO (Obaigbena) was Yaradua's media  manager. Why didn't release the state by state numbers.

Beaf:

The poll was carried out by Ipsos, which is arguably the Worlds most credible global market research company. Their polls are usually accurate to within 3%.

http://www.ipsos.com/

Read the article again and clear you eyes.

Lagosboy:

How did ipsos telephone the almajiris in katsina to declare it too close to call. What language did ipsos use in communicating to the agberos in ibadan to know that Akala is competing favourably with Ladoja and Ajimobi.

Did ipsos travel to Daura to know who they are speaking with or did the pdp supporters give them thier telephone numbers to ring. How many people in all took part in the survey?

They greatest wrong you could do to yourself is decieve yourself which is what GEJ is doing. Atikus poll also came from this very thisday and i remember you BEAF calling the poll nonsense. What has changed BEAF, did Nduka sell thisiday to another person?

Lagosboy:

How did ipsos telephone the almajiris in katsina to declare it too close to call. What language did ipsos use in communicating to the agberos in ibadan to know that Akala is competing favourably with Ladoja and Ajimobi.

Did ipsos travel to Daura to know who they are speaking with or did the pdp supporters give them thier telephone numbers to ring. How many people in all took part in the survey?

They greatest wrong you could do to yourself is decieve yourself which is what GEJ is doing. Atikus poll also came from this very thisday and i remember you BEAF calling the poll nonsense. What has changed BEAF, did Nduka sell thisiday to another person?

Speaking to THISDAY yesterday on the latest polling results, the CEO for Sub-Saharan Africa, David Somers, said: “We initially designed a very large sample to cover the entire country. It’s a sample of 11,000 approximately of what we did in every state that will allow us to have estimate per state and in general. We conducted[b] face to face interviews[/b] and as we talk to people in local dialects and personally on the ground, we asked people a series of questions about how they feel about life and about things in general and about things they want from their politicians. And ultimately for whom they will vote for whether at the presidential level or at the gubernatorial level. It’s honestly a traditional poll which we do all over the world.

“So the way we arrived at figures was to go to all the states, interview the people within those states and then aggregate all the data from the states up to a national level. We rate data accordingly so that each state will be represented correctly within the total national figure by the census and also by the voter registration. So we used as a waiting measure plus some other factors which we discovered while we went into this and that is how we got the national figures.”