ANYBODY who listened to President Goodluck Jonathan on August 26, 2010, when he unveiled the power roadmap, would have felt relieved by his statement that Nigeria would start enjoying uninterrupted power supply by December 2012.

Barely 20 months away, the President has turned around to shift the target to 2015, which will automatically mark the end of the next political dispensation.

At the forum, graced by major stakeholders in the sector and dignitaries across the country, including 12 state governors, Jonathan had said: “By God’s grace, by December 2012, Nigeria will not just celebrate one day of uninterrupted power supply, but one week, one month, and even better. It’s actually with that vision and mission that we are here today to launch the Roadmap for Power Sector Reform.

“We are today gathered here for a twin seminar event to launch our administration’s electric power roadmap and productively, engage the key stakeholders of the economy in a focused discourse on our plans to effectively tackle the critical challenge of the enormous electric power deficit and transforming the sector into the major driver of Nigeria’s economic development process,” he said.

However, it was a different story in Edo State recently when the Goodluck-Sambo presidential campaign train stopped briefly in Edo State with Jonathan promising to achieve stable power supply by 2015.

Stakeholders are however irked by this development, which tends to fade away their hope on the targeted period.

An expert in the sector, who pleaded anonymity said: “I have stopped talking about the Nigerian power sector, because it seems our politicians know what they are doing, all I have to say now is that we need divine intervention. Nigerian politicians are seems not to be determined about their promises, if it were in other country I know what to say, but here in Nigeria, these people are not reliable.”

But a government source said plans are at advanced stage to increase the generation capacity through the existing power stations. He believed that these step would aid the promise made by the president in August 2010, and make his dreams in the power sector a reality.

“As I am talking to you, we have mapped out strategies which we are optimistic would aid the president’s promise. If you look at the trend of power supply now, you will discover that supply is improving gradually and we are determined to make it better,” the source said.

The transformation is expected to be achieved through a lined-up programmes earmarked in the power roadmap, which are speculated to have materialise by the targeted period.

Already, move to transfer some asset of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), to the private sector has reached an advanced stage. Stipulated power generating plants are waiting to be taken over, while the workers are struggling to have an affirmation on their position in the whole process.

The Federal Government had assured that the targeted 15,000 megawatts electricity generation before the end of 2011 is possible, while the current installed electricity capacity is put at about 6,000mw with only a maximum of about 4,000 mw available at any time, with a mix of 36 per cent hydro and 64 per cent thermal.

According to the President, the government would encourage private sector, therefore the private sector will be responsible for generation and distribution, while government will still hold the transmission grid with private sector management.

“We are in the process of commissioning Independent Power Producing with national oil companies and companies that have good production of electricity to produce at least 5,000 megawatts (mw) of new capacity. This plant will begin production in 2012 and 2013. Government will provide the credit enhancement that will encourage them to invest in the construction of the power plant.

“In the interim, government has commenced plan to fast-track the full installation of installed capacity at the various Federal Government power plants across the nation, through rehabilitation of the existing ones.”

On power generation, Jonathan said the plans to ensure full exploration of hydro sources have reached advanced stage. He emphasized that coal would also be fully exploited over the next few years to install power plants in such states like Gombe, Kogi, Enugu and Benue. However, the largest source of fuel to power will come from natural gas.

According to him, the Federal Government will no longer develop and build coal and natural gas terminal power plants, but will, encourage immediate private sector participation. “We will engage companies that have definite installed capacity either for manufacturing or as independent power producers to expand their production capacity and sell electricity to the national grid. This concept will generate over 5,000mw within the next three years.”

“In line with the Electricity Power Reform Act, the power trader with the BPE is now incorporated to project power from the standing power providers and sell to distribution companies. The trader will be in full operation in less than two months from today,” Jonathan said.

In progress with the privatisation agenda, the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) has received a total of 331 applications as at the deadline of Expressions of Interest (EOIs) in the privatisation of the successor companies created out PHCN.

174 applications were received from prospective investors/concessionaires interested in acquiring the four thermal stations and the two hydro stations.

Also, 157 applications were harvested from prospective investors interested in acquiring the eleven distribution companies.

The core investor sales would be carried out through international competitive bidding will cover the eleven electricity distribution companies in the country.

They are Abuja Electricity Distribution Company Plc; Benin Electricity Distribution Company Plc; Enugu Electricity Distribution Company Plc; Eko Electricity Distribution Company Plc; Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company Plc; and Ikeja Electricity Distribution Company Plc.

Others are Jos Electricity Distribution Company Plc; Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company Plc; Kano Electricity Distribution Company Plc; Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company Plc; and Yola Electricity Distribution Company Plc.

The privatisation of thermal and hydro power stations, which will also be carried out through international competitive bidding, will cover the following companies: Thermal Power generating companies: Ughelli Power Plc – situated in Delta area with a total installed capacity of 972 MW; Geregu Power Plc- situated in Kogi State in north central Nigeria with a total installed capacity of 414 MW; Afam Power Plc comprising of Afam I-V power stations located in Rivers State in South-South Nigeria with an installed capacity of 776 MW; and Sapele Power Plc located in Sapele, Delta state in South-south Nigeria with an installed capacity of 1020 MW.

The Hydro Power generating companies include Kainji Power Plc, comprising Kainji Power Plants and Jebba Power Plants located in Niger and Kwara states respectively in North-central; and Shiroro Power Plc located at the Shiroro Gorge, Niger State in North-central Nigeria.

greateros:

Brazil built a power plant of 120,000MW in 3yrs with a loan which they also paid back in 3yrs!

south africa gave a contract for a 5,000MW power plant at a cost of just US$3 billion!

PDP spent US$17 billion in 11 years and generated less than 2,000MW!!!

Whosoever votes for PDP this April is an enemy of Nigeria!

blink182:

@efisher, please wake up from your slumber

efisher:

I m not sleeping. Read my comment again and tell me which part suggests I am sleeping!

ondo_boi:

So, no more emergency on electricity, ssmh*

efisher:

@blink182, That's the difference between me and a lot of other people. I always try to see things from other people's perspectives. Based on that, I make an effort to balance me opinion. Even if Buhari or Ribadu makes the same statement, my judgement is that 4 years is fair enough for a serious president to achieve near 100% power availability.


As for the Chinese example I gave, do you know that China added [b]3.3 GW in 2007 from wind energy alone! That is about 800 times the installed capacity of the entire Nigerian power sector. China actually astonished the world with this development.
[/b]
Reference: http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5758

I know we cannot compare Nigeria and China but these examples are just to show that we can do it in a year with the right people, policies, procedures and practices. For instance, imagine what a gas to power project at zero gas price to electricity generating companies will do to our power sector.

greateros:

Brazil built a power plant of 120,000MW in 3yrs with a loan which they also paid back in 3yrs!

south africa gave a contract for a 5,000MW power plant at a cost of just US$3 billion!

PDP spent US$17 billion in 11 years and generated less than 2,000MW!!!

Whosoever votes for PDP this April is an enemy of Nigeria!

Beaf:

^
You shut up.
Did Buhari promise 2019 or not, or are you as ignorant as his average none-reading stone throwing foot-soldiers?

blink182:

Buhari promised 2019. While he is realistic GEJ is just dumb and desperate. Buhari knows too well that there are rotten elements in the system that he needs to take care of to enable his plans run smoothly.

Sorry bro, with the amount of people i have converted for buhari in my vicinity, I'm a lieutenant in his army if he looses by 2015 i'm sure to be a general cos i'll be organizing public meetings for him in my town.

efisher:

@blink182, That's the difference between me and a lot of other people. I always try to see things from other people's perspectives. Based on that, I make an effort to balance me opinion. Even if Buhari or Ribadu makes the same statement, my judgement is that 4 years is fair enough for a serious president to achieve near 100% power availability.


As for the Chinese example I gave, do you know that China added 3.3 GW in 2007 from wind energy alone! That is about 800 times the installed capacity of the entire Nigerian power sector. China actually astonished the world with this development.

Reference: http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5758

I know we cannot compare Nigeria and China but these examples are just to show that we can do it in a year with the right people, policies, procedures and practices. For instance, imagine what a gas to power project at zero gas price to electricity generating companies will do to our power sector.

Beaf:

^
Dude, your estimate for solar power is way too high. I strongly suspect that your definition of how to harvest it is narrow.

jensinmi:


@efisher

Your point makes a lot of sense.
Solar power is a joke and cannot be used in Nigeria. Here's my analysis from previous research on this topic.

1,000MW via gas or coal costs on average $800 million to $1.2billion
1,000MW via wind turbines costs on average $1.8 billion to $2.4billion
1,000MW via solar energy costs on average $6 billion to $8 billion

These are global averages.
Wind power may hold a lot of promise in Nigeria. The advantage for us is that the power stations won't require construction of gas pipelines. I did say may though because not every region of the world receives adequate wind speeds to produce significant power. When citing a wind turbine, Anemometry readings must be taken for a minimum of 2 to 3 years to determine whether wind speeds are constantly high enough to maintain power.

Btw,  Nigeria's generation is approx. 4,000MW (4GW). So,  the China example above is actually equivalent to Nigeria's total power generation and not 800 times as much as you speculated. Just a minor point though.


Our $16billion "invested" by the PDP should have provided us b/w 12,000MW to 18,000MW of Gas/Coal generated power or 6,000MW to 8,000MW of Wind-generated power.

I do think a state like Plateau could have high enough wind speeds in certain areas to generate power.


Come to think of it. I think I'll go buy some anemometry equipment and visit Plateau state when next in Nigeria. Could set up a 2 year experiments to that end.

egift:

Why is it that when Beaf scramble to find his footing, look for lies/links to justify the sore policy and empty promises of Jonathan - I get delighted. Jonathan will promise you anything, kneel/beg anybody, if that will get him the presidency. That is a definition of a desperate man.

@Post:
Until corruption in the system is brought to a halt, no amount of money thrown into the power sector will bring forth results.

blink182:

I was suspecting you only seemed to be brilliant but the bolded confirmed that you dont know what you're talking about, please go research properly. Do you know what china is? 4000mw will not even power an industrial park in china and you think 40000mw and 4000gw are the same, wake up!

efisher:

@blink182, That's the difference between me and a lot of other people. I always try to see things from other people's perspectives. Based on that, I make an effort to balance me opinion. Even if Buhari or Ribadu makes the same statement, my judgement is that 4 years is fair enough for a serious president to achieve near 100% power availability.


As for the Chinese example I gave, do you know that China added 3.3 GW in 2007 from wind energy alone! That is about 800 times the installed capacity of the entire Nigerian power sector. China actually astonished the world with this development.

Reference: http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5758

I know we cannot compare Nigeria and China but these examples are just to show that we can do it in a year with the right people, policies, procedures and practices. For instance, imagine what a gas to power project at zero gas price to electricity generating companies will do to our power sector.

jensinmi:

Sorry Bros. Large scale solar farming is up to 8 times as expensive as just burning fossil fuels. Some good sources can be found online to support that point.

If one is quite lucky though, you can bring it down to 5 times the cost of deploying a Coal/Gas Plant.

jensinmi:

No need to resort to insults my dear sir.

Efisher's post is still up for reference.
1,000MW (Megawatts) = 1GW
3,300MW (Megawatts) = 3.3GW

and 3.3GW is what efisher referenced to be 800 times the power generation of Nigeria. He did not say 3,300GW.
Kindly note that the United States generates around 4,400GW of electricity. Only a tiny amount of that is from wind power.

Beaf:

No, you are looking at conventional means that work in temperate lands. Solar energy is by far the cheapest form of electricity for a place like Nigeria, but with the right technology.
However, lets leave the argument for another thread, where we can list every method, their costs and merits / demerits. This thread is packed with partisan boneheads that can't tell night from day.

otokx:

Is the South African 5000MW on stream now?

9ijaMan:

Beaf, just chatap ya mouth. What you don't know you ought to be quiet about. Just STFU. Where did you get such a convoluted idea from? Spend some time on the internet to research about Solar Energy and conpare it with the burning of fossil fuels and hydro power plants. Do not ignorantly makes stup!d statements on areas way above your knowledge level.