Nigeria, a nation of over 150 million people, generated only 2,000 megawatts of electricity this week. Ethnic, religious and political crises have claimed thousands of lives and displaced countless more. Maternal mortality is among the highest in the world. Not a single university in the country appears among the top 5,000 universities in the world. Infrastructure, where it exists is broken and neglected.

Yet, this year, government will spend more to subsidize petrol (about USD 5 billion) than on roads, education, health and power combined. This prioritization is symptomatic of the political economy of today’s Nigeria.

At issue is whether Nigeria remains a “Clique Democracy” or a real, people-driven democracy; whether the current leadership, sworn in again on Sunday has the character, vision and will to defy vested political and business interests to govern decently and grow the economy. Without a major change in the way our country is governed there is reason to fear that what should be Africa’s leading economy, will instead be courting disaster.

President Goodluck Jonathan’s first 18 months at the helm did not bode well. The politics of division has pitted northerners against southerners and Christians against Muslims to the point that obtaining the cohesion and social harmony necessary for economic development will be very difficult.

In the last 4 years, the administration led first by Umaru Yar’Adua, then by Jonathan spent over $200 billion of oil and non-oil revenues, including over $23 billion the previous administration left behind in the Excess Crude Account (ECA) – designed to create savings from revenues above the budgeted price of oil. There is little to show for it. No single major infrastructure investment or policy initiative has been concluded. About a third of that amount was spent under Jonathan’s watch. As Acting President and then President, he ran down the ECA to less than $500 million from the over $6 billion he inherited – sharing out the nation’s savings account to State Governors and traditional rulers to win their support for his presidential bid.

Not content with spending our savings, Jonathan borrowed massively. Nigeria’s domestic and external debts also increased rapidly. According to the Debt Management Office, our domestic debt rose from N2, 051 billion (US $14 billion) in 2007 to N3, 228 billion ($21 billion) by 2010 in the three years Yar’Adua was in charge. Jonathan ramped up domestic borrowing within a year to N4, 869 billion (US $32 billion) – borrowing a massive $11 billion in less than 12 months. Our external debt also increased from $3.719 billion at the end of 2009 to $5.227 billion by March 2011. No one can point to a new power station, seaport, rail line or interstate road completed.

Worse still, oil revenues for the year will not cover the salaries and running cost of the Federal Government according to projections in the 2011 budget. This is in a country where around 30 million people have no jobs. There is little or no investment in physical and human capital, even with very high oil prices the administration has enjoyed. The consequence is militancy in the Niger Delta, extremist violence in the north. Nigeria is now more divided – along religious and ethnic lines – than at any time since the civil war in the 1960s. Internal security must necessarily be the priority.

President Goodluck Jonathan’s first 18 months at the helm did not bode well. The politics of division has pitted northerners against southerners and Christians against Muslims to the point that obtaining the cohesion and social harmony necessary for economic development will be very difficult.

Nigeria is now more divided – along religious and ethnic lines – than at any time since the civil war in the 1960s. Internal security must necessarily be the priority.

mikeansy:

This is another example of selective appreciation of history which most Nigerians are very guilty of. Is he saying Jonathan goodluck is responsible for the above? Where was the Muslim or Northern establishment when a dead man was allowed to remain at the helm for so long just because his successor will be a Southern Christain? That issue divided this country more than anything else in recent memory and unfortunately the Northerners did not rise to the occassion to demonstrate their love for united Nigeria when necesary.

Yet, this year, government will spend more to subsidize petrol (about USD 5 billion) than on roads, education, health and power combined. This prioritization is symptomatic of the political economy of today’s Nigeria.

[size=13pt]In the last 4 years, the administration led first by Umaru Yar’Adua, then by Jonathan spent over $200 billion of oil and non-oil revenues, including over $23 billion the previous administration left behind in the Excess Crude Account (ECA) – designed to create savings from revenues above the budgeted price of oil.[/size] There is little to show for it. No single major infrastructure investment or policy initiative has been concluded. About a third of that amount was spent under Jonathan’s watch. As Acting President and then President, he ran down the ECA to less than $500 million from the over $6 billion he inherited – sharing out the nation’s savings account to State Governors and traditional rulers to win their support for his presidential bid.

Not content with spending our savings, Jonathan borrowed massively. Nigeria’s domestic and external debts also increased rapidly. According to the Debt Management Office, our domestic debt rose from N2, 051 billion (US $14 billion) in 2007 to N3, 228 billion ($21 billion) by 2010 in the three years Yar’Adua was in charge. [size=13pt]Jonathan ramped up domestic borrowing within a year to N4, 869 billion (US $32 billion) – borrowing a massive $11 billion in less than 12 months. Our external debt also increased from $3.719 billion at the end of 2009 to $5.227 billion by March 2011. No one can point to a new power station, seaport, rail line or interstate road completed.[/size]

Badesh:

My petite El rufai thinks by voicing all his vernom, the situation will get better. At this point in time of our history, someone of his calibre I expect will be busy meeting with other egg heads within the polity with a view to serving this nation and not pulling down some government policies that hitherto were introduced so as to better our lots. Ordinarily, one felt bad with the situation he found himself after leaving office as the minister for the FCT, yet we prayed that he does not go down entirely.

Now the man can only busy himself with rethorics which will not move us beyond our enclave.

Mcleo007:

You just poured out the words right from my skull. Such a spaz, this El-rufai of a man. With all his intelligence, one would have expected something more concise and incisive. This piece is just another northern scheme to downbeat the achieving capabilities of the southerners. He writes as if its with the advent of GEJ's leadership that all these problems started. I keep saying it, it took Nigeria so long to rot; it'd take a long time to heal the rot. Pls, allow the president be.

violent:

You mean expected something more árse-licking?

The dude made important points about GEJ's 18 months leadership, the financial recklessness that followed, and how impoverish we are now, than we've ever been, and all you could see from the article is a Norther campaign against a southern shyt?  can you guys learn to grow up and be wise?

In as much as it's true that certain problems such as "Northern crises" etcetra did not start with Jonathan's leadership, how about the reckless financial spending that followed his assumption of office, should we also blame those on past leaders?  El-rufai painted a fine picture, supported by numbers that can be confirmed (or not), and the first thing that came to your fooolish  funny mind is that "Nigeria has taken so long to rot"? grow up i say!

Kobojunkie:

Mcleo007:

You're not deserving of my reply.

Ikengawo:

first of all, to announce the 'amount spent' as a means of provoking outrage is silly and ridiculous because El Rufai is implying every naira spent was a waste or went to corrupt ends. Believe it or not running a country of 150 million people is not cheap, nor free.

[b]There is little to show for it. No single major infrastructure investment or policy initiative has been concluded. [/b]About a third of that amount was spent under Jonathan’s watch. As Acting President and then President, he ran down the ECA to less than $500 million from the over $6 billion he inherited – sharing out the nation’s savings account to State Governors and traditional rulers to win their support for his presidential bid.

Ikengawo:

second of all nigeria didn't make 200 billion dollars in oil revenue and only a %age of oil revenue goes to the federal government which is then divided into the states and ministries so where does El Rufai get the figure that the federal government spent 200 billion dollars? that's on par with the average european country's national budget.

youngies:

El Rufai has been unemployed for a while now.
It is not easy to cope especially if you are used to chopping
There is no need condescending so low just because you want a job so that you can also chop

adconline:

Nigeria is in a mess! If Yar'dua and GEJ spent $200 Billion in 4 years without nothing to show for it, then OBJ and Co including El Rufai spent $400 billion without nothing to show for it either. So the circle of nothing to show for it continues.

karl max:

The same el rufai that has refused to come to court to defend himself of corrupt charges brought against him by the EFCC!!! After he was granted bail he has been abroad running his mouth very soon he would be declared wanted!! Ole,barawo calling other people theif he should come home and defend his charges if he is a saint