You know, we Nigerians tend to see the glass half-empty. And often-times we have good reason to. What with various social issues like corruption, mis-governance, political instability, etc. You can hardly blame anybody for being pessimistic about the outlook for the future.

But is it really that bad? I think a lot has happened since 1999 that gets me thinking, well, Nigeria may not be so far off from development after all. Sure, the pace is slow, and the impact is hardly felt. But a lot of things have happened in the economy that we don't usually take notice of. I'll list a few:

1. Pension Act: This fund has grown to around $11bn as at 2010. The funds, having being largely secured in bonds rather than equities or futures, are largely secure from the tanking of the global markets we're currently experiencing everywhere. I wonder if U.S. 401(k) holders can say the same?

2. Insurance Industry: Though not yet uhuru, the industry has managed to grow 11% over the last 4 years, since 2007. They've also diversified into various products. The challenge they still face is the natural pessimism of Nigerians. But that they have managed to grow and sustain their business is quite remarkable.

3. Health Care: The health insurance scheme has changed the face of health care in Nigeria for the better. The only problem is, there is very little investment in private health care by Nigerians. I'd have expected that, just like in India, the Nigerian healthcare entrepreneurs could have teamed up with their diaspora counterparts to finance mega projects in health care delivery, pharmaceutics, and biotech. Health insurance bridges the gap, and more people can now get access to good services. But right now the few private hospitals cannot cope with the volumes, and end up delivering poor service.

4. ICT: I won't dwell too much on this, cos it has been said too many times. However, it is worth mentioning that ICT, especially telecom deregulation, has probably generated an income for Nigeria in the billions of USD, and may have created over a million direct or indirect jobs.

Maybe you guys can help me with a few more sectors where you think we have made progress. Remember, this is about positive developments, and especially areas where we all should be looking at for investment, rather than trying to make our fortune from forex trading or IB jobs (I am saying that tongue in cheek!)

I'll even add the growth of the entertainment industry to my list. We have no real way of knowing how much in terms of investment (local or foreign) that this sector has attracted, but methinks Nigeria is probably the biggest in terms of appeal when it comes to African entertainment after all. Anywhere you go, West, East, Central, or Southern Africa, Nollywood rules, and Nigerian music rules. The economic value of this can't be small, in my view.

When you even look at the estimated amounts that the likes of Mnet may have invested in programming and content delivery, for strictly Nigerian content. This is big.

Growth in Numbers, I think People will feel the impact if perhaps they know how much new jobs are created, or if the employement figures are decreasing or increasing

Manufacturing output and Employment stats will be the most useful to Nigerian right now, because the economy of developing countries using these indices above is always on the UP 'naturally'

Dis Guy:

Growth in Numbers, I think People will feel the impact if perhaps they know how much new jobs are created, or if the employement figures are decreasing or increasing

Manufacturing output and Employment stats will be the most useful to Nigerian right now, because the economy of developing countries using these indices above is always on the UP 'naturally'

You know, what I am trying to point out is, it appears that there is insufficient engagement by the private sector. Those areas I highlighted are service-oriented rather than manufacturing-oriented. That means, just like India, there is opportunity for growth in the service sector, but the opportunities are not taken up by private entrepreneurs.

For example, if healthcare entrepreneurs could sink investment into that sector, build mega-hospitals like it was done in India, you'd create a lot of jobs, and the health insurance would bridge the gap between poor citizens and affordable healthcare. If there is more manufacturing of drugs locally, more research, there will be more opportunities for Nigerians.

India = service-oriented, China = manufacturing-oriented, Brazil = manufacturing-oriented, Russia = service-oriented.
These countries are similar in social demographic to Nigeria. High population, poor social infrastructure (except for China), high unemployment, social unrest, etc. Similar to Nigeria.

Economic growth data in Nigeria cannot be depend on because it usually doctored to fit the news.

Apparently, it is relatively easy to obtain a mining lease in Nigeria, for solid minerals. See here for details.

Greenpro:

Economic growth data in Nigeria cannot be depend on because it usually doctored to fit the news.

That's an example of the pessimism I was talking about.
Doctored by who?
This is private sector stuff. And I am in that same private sector. Don't generalize. You'd be surprised how Indians, Chinese, and Lebanese are struggling to take advantage of the opportunities that we are spurning.

AjanleKoko:

Apparently, it is relatively easy to obtain a mining lease in Nigeria, for solid minerals. See here for details.

broda! you've touched on a very important area, billions of dollars a sitting under peoples feet and all we think about is contracts. Some friends just invested in a solid minerals mine and the prospects are looking very good. I think our youth need to stop talking and start doing, most are waiting for all the lights to be green before they commence.
The agricultural sector is also making strides especially poultry and fish farming but the major issue is most of us think too small. A man who has a 500 bird poultry will be happy not knowing he can expand to a million birds and also process! The key is value addition, Nigeria as a nation needs to start adding value.

AjanleKoko:


This is private sector stuff. And I am in that same private sector. Don't generalize. You'd be surprised how Indians, Chinese, and Lebanese are struggling to take advantage of the opportunities that we are spurning.

I've always thought those guys are coming non necessarily coming with better skills and obviously local knowledge but with cheaper funds and some local connections (its easier for them)

Another things is the middle class or should i say those that can afford services or products as you mentioned in the healthcare sector

for example, if healthcare entrepreneurs could sink investment into that sector, build mega-hospitals like it was done in India, you'd create a lot of jobs, and the health insurance would bridge the gap between poor citizens and affordable healthcare. If there is more manufacturing of drugs locally, more research, there will be more opportunities for Nigerians,

there are still so many struggling to pay for drugs or even Xrays. In a way I think Lagos might be distorting a lot of peoples view on the purchasing power of Nigerians outside the 6 cities live is tough- Insurance will mean people have some sort of income, and this insurance many private hospitals still think they are not getting a good deal ( not sure about the number that are taking this up either)

I also see a lot of growth but why its not penetrating or sustainable in other areas I don't know, the figures are always on the up though, perhaps Nigerian investors are very risk averse mainly due to high rate of failure, high rate of interest and government policies

The broadband operator are asking for a policy directive, one would have thought the NCC/FG would be pushing for it way before they landed. The private sector rarely get a hearing, they are not engaged properly, they are only used for committees whose recommendations hardly see the light and political fund raising

Guys i see the future bright for this country, with people like Ngozi nwala as Finance minister and sanusi's stilla sGovernor of cbn with his new policy, in 3 years time Nigeria will be a Global big market in africa.Our problem before was the instability and lack of loans for inventor from our banks but now the banking has been given a new lift with the injection of over N628Billion to the new form/liquidated banks, Now they have been give about 200bilion naira each for their fixed assets like , buildings equipments branches all over the country,more jobs will be created with many people changing banks from Gtb to Mainstreet Bank Ltd etc, its really going to be fun and fantastic change, the banking sector is paramont to developmenbt of any economy and once that sector is stabilize people and enterpreneurs regardless of your status can approach a bank for loan.Another thing is that this bank is been handled to professionals like ajekigbe former MD of firstbank etc.Therefore i welcome you all to a new Nigeria.i love niger for life.

this is the yarn of typical city people.

how many people in okitipupa, otukpo, Otueke have access to bank loans to participate in private sector business ventures?

I know people running shops and other business but never managed to grow big. so the financial situation in PH, lagos, abuja, kano, enugu, Kaduna, Benin and Ibadan  are not same in smaller towns and villages where over 70% of the population reside.

The Nigeria in its real self she is soon to come

this is a great topic and i am enjoying it even though i don't have much to contribute

i am in IT sector of the economy, like i always tell my friends, that look the stride Nigeria as a nation has made in IT sector is not even notice and appreciated by Nigeria. though i know we still have long way to go but we have made some achievement in that light and i stand to be corrected

Nigeria is still very far from economic growth, only if the leaders know what ther were really elected for, things would then start turning in the right direction.

Next century after dividing into Hausawa country, Odua Country and Biafra Country

Dis Guy:

I've always thought those guys are coming non necessarily coming with better skills and obviously local knowledge but with cheaper funds and some local connections (its easier for them)

Well, who has more local connections than the locals themselves? I think the foreigners come not with cheaper funds per se, but they know how to use money much better than Nigerians. We seem to have the spending appetite of the West, which is why we always go for the high-CAPEX business approach. And regarding local connections, these guys are always willing to do business with anybody who can deliver. You would be surprised to know that all these businesses like Park N Shop have Nigerian stakeholders, who facilitate the entry for these people. It's not necessarily easier for them, but they are just used to dealing with difficult terrain and people.

Dis Guy:

Another things is the middle class or should i say those that can afford services or products as you mentioned in the healthcare sector

there are still so many struggling to pay for drugs or even Xrays. In a way I think Lagos might be distorting a lot of peoples view on the purchasing power of Nigerians outside the 6 cities live is tough- Insurance will mean people have some sort of income, and this insurance many private hospitals still think they are not getting a good deal ( not sure about the number that are taking this up either)

Health insurance is available to everybody, at very little cost. There are some HMO products that could guarantee you something like N100,000 cover for as little as a N10 premium a day. Even labourers can afford that. But the issue is, they don't know, and nobody is bringing the business to them. The current participants in the scheme, HMOs and healthcare providers alike, simply cannot scale to cater for the mass. Some hospitals even discriminate against HMO patients, and try to limit the volumes coming in. In their myopic attitude, they prefer a small select client of walk-in customers, the same so-called middle class that you are referring to.

The reason why the small private hospital may not be happy with the scheme right now, is that they cannot scale efficiently. Pardon me to use a telecom analogy. Why are the CDMA operators going out of business? They simply cannot scale up in a very short period to accommodate the critical mass, i.e. they can only take up the customers that they can handle. Visafone, a CDMA operator, launched services in early 2008, in 22 states, and Etisalat, a GSM operator, launched services in 7 cities. Today Etisalat has 10 million customers and Visafone is averaging 2.5million.

What is needed in healthcare is major investment in mega hospitals that can manage the high-traffic, low-paying customers, and can break even on their outlay more efficiently, rather than the small boutique clinics that will struggle to acquire an X-ray machine.

Dis Guy:

I also see a lot of growth but why its not penetrating or sustainable in other areas I don't know, the figures are always on the up though, perhaps Nigerian investors are very risk averse mainly due to high rate of failure, high rate of interest and government policies

Of course the growth is penetrating. Don't forget Nigeria has 160 million people. Before you can cross the poverty barrier with more than 50% of of our population by 2020, you probably need to grow at maybe 100% year on year for the next ten years. How did I arrive at this? 100% means we must double our capacity in every area every year - twice more schools, twice more hospitals, twice our power output, twice more roads and jobs, etc. The truth is, it is technically impossible, but we can grow a lot faster if more Nigerians pay attention to these things, and not just sit and wait for government.

Dis Guy:

The broadband operator are asking for a policy directive, one would have thought the NCC/FG would be pushing for it way before they landed. The private sector rarely get a hearing, they are not engaged properly, they are only used for committees whose recommendations hardly see the light and political fund raising

It's a good thing that I'm in the same private sector you speak of, and also in telecom. Who are these broadband operators? And who says the private sector doesn't get a hearing? In telecoms, we have the stakeholders forum with NCC. That's where those decisions on SIM Reg and Number Portability were taken. Same goes for finance - bankers committee, etc. Where did you get all these impressions?

Anytime i hear Nigerian's discussing about economic development they tend to drive it towards bad leadership as it was postulated by one of the posters. The drive to posterity starts with me and you as it is stated that poverty anywhere is a threat to prosperity everywhere,i believe that b4 everyhand culd be on deck in this country,the government has to work on the mind set of its citizen by proper orientation to eradicate the backward and negative thinking regarding development in this country.
It is not few but to reasonable extent they hav bein dev in some key and strategic aspect in every sector of the economy.

marabout:

this is the yarn of typical city people.

how many people in okitipupa, otukpo, Otueke have access to bank loans to participate in private sector business ventures?

I know people running shops and other business but never managed to grow big. so the financial situation in PH, lagos, abuja, kano, enugu, Kaduna, Benin and Ibadan  are not same in smaller towns and villages where over 70% of the population reside.

Well, don't you think that it is the 'city people' that need to 'open the way' for the Okitipupa, Oturkpo, and Otueke people?
If the city people step up, it won't be long before the results are felt everywhere.

Anytime i hear Nigerian's discussing about economic development they tend to drive it towards bad leadership as it was postulated by one of the posters. The drive to posterity starts with me and you as it is stated that poverty anywhere is a threat to prosperity everywhere,i believe that b4 everyhand culd be on deck in this country,the government has to work on the mind set of its citizen by proper orientation to eradicate the backward and negative thinking regarding development in this country.
It is not few but to reasonable extent they hav bein dev in some key and strategic aspect in every sector of the economy.

Posted by: AjanleKoko

3. Health Care: The health insurance scheme has changed the face of health care in Nigeria for the better. The only problem is, there is very little investment in private health care by Nigerians. I'd have expected that, just like in India, the Nigerian healthcare entrepreneurs could have teamed up with their diaspora counterparts to finance mega projects in health care delivery, pharmaceutics, and biotech. Health insurance bridges the gap, and more people can now get access to good services. But right now the few private hospitals cannot cope with the volumes, and end up delivering poor service.

i never knew health insurance exist in my country until now,
we are really moving forward,i cant wait to be among the peeps that made new nigeria

Any discussion of growth in any economy is filtered from monocular perspectives of Quantitativeness and [b]Qualitativeness.[/b]while the former enphasized the GDP numerically the later concentrates on the physical effect of GDP on the populace,given a situation of Nigeria economy when it comes to GDP ratio of course it has exclellently increased and it will keep increasing the (oil barrels sold per day),the taxe,the fines and other revenue accruals.However in the comparative analysis as to what extent Nigeria has been able to apply this growth positively on the human cost and standard of living is the question unanswered but we all do,we all know the answer, the annoying rate of economic development in Nigeria is evident in poor standard of living of her people and diminishing manpower utilization.

imagine Nigeria cannot feed herself,cannot fuel her cars,cannot gass her cookers,cannot lit her streets when naturally she's blessed more than the countries from which she imports food and clothes, Nigeria cannot even clothe herself

I beg make i go back to work? my desk if calling,

But what can be done is what we should be discussing further.thank you.

Not too far.

ronkebp:

Nigeria is still very far from economic growth, only if the leaders know what ther were really elected for, things would then start turning in the right direction.

I beg to differ, Nigeria is growing- only that the growth is not commensurate with the size of the population which is why "the common man" would  not feel the impact. With the resources at our disposal, the growth should be exponential but it isn't for a variety of reasons.

A classic example is the Oil and Gas sector, 10 years ago how many local players did we have in the industry? Fast forward to today, there are local players almost competing with the multinationals both up and downstream- which was unthinkable a decade ago.

There are so many other examples, just a few years ago as well, most Nigerians abroad would never think about going into Nigeria to do any sort of business but the climate is getting friendlier and more people are coming back- although there's still a long way to go.

These are the factors that lead to growth- the government and citizens have a massive role to play though. The CBN has to relax its tight monetary policy, accountability has be one of the priorities in government and individually. Our mindset has to change which takes time but is not impossible.

In as much as i want to agree with this thread on its merits, there are few more important issue that require immediate consideration before taking an investment risk in this country, except one is very close to the seat of power where you can get bail out funds.

1) We require an enabling environment before investment. Take for instance issue of power and road networks; the effects of these have direct impact on the cost of production and pricing. In most cases, we erroneously assume that private sector investment is same thing as running a bureau--De--change business, NO.

2) We require capital in the form of funds, equipments, logistics, manpower and infrastructure. One may be tempted to quickly conclude that interest-free-banking-model would take care of this but I bet to argue to the contrary. IMO it is a socialist idea to redistribute income and wealth but on the long run will be seen supporting capitalist ideas more than the socialist ideas especially in this country.

3) Cost of capital and inflation, the effect of these due alone has crippled several companies, and it's a major challenge to investors. I think an investor needs guarantee on a stable and downward trend on these duo. It will interest a foreign  investor if he can calculate his risk margin with some level of certainty.

In your example, apart from ICT, pension scheme, health scheme are all forms of insurance, however what % of the population are beneficiary of these schemes. All these schemes have their politics and corruption.

Sincerely IMO, there is a portion of development that is missing in the history of this country and not until we are ready to adjust it, it may take us more than necessary to get industrialized. That portion is the agrarian revolution which can be fine tuned for modern realities.

AjanleKoko:

It's a good thing that I'm in the same private sector you speak of, and also in telecom. Who are these broadband operators? And who says the private sector doesn't get a hearing? In telecoms, we have the stakeholders forum with NCC. That's where those decisions on SIM Reg and Number Portability were taken. Same goes for finance - bankers committee, etc. Where did you get all these impressions?

The Chief Executive Officer of Main One, Funke Opeke has restated the call for the creation of a national broadband strategy.

Opeke informed THISDAY that elsewhere across the globe, the creation of a national strategy that will enable broadband penetration was being pursued.

She gave examples of Ghana, where an ongoing initiative was on in this regard and the United States, where the Obama administration was recently launched a  broadband strategy to speed broadband penetration. She urged the Nigerian government to enable a strategy that define how improved access and lower cost of broadband can be achieved across Nigeria.

Opeke reiterated that most countries were increasingly focused on implementing such broadband strategies because of the proven impact on economic development.

She stressed that it will be critical for Nigeria to do the same if it wants to make the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Vision 20:2020 a reality. Broadband ,  often called high-speed Internet, because it usually has a high rate of data transmission relative to dial-up access over a modem is a critical tool that  drives development. Any economy that wants to be reckoned with cannot afford to ignore Broadband.
Thisday

Another is the aviation sector- the increasing bills and fuel saga, the cement manufacturers/importers, textiles manufacturers--these are all recurring issues for these sectors

_{Glad you mentioned the banking sector, people think the Mallam wakes up and make decisions without the bankers themselves e.g the cashless/electronic banking policy}

Sadly, Nigeria is still a while away. We night a holistic reform of many sectors. If Aganga & Ngozi can work hand in hand then I have faith that in 4 years now, Nigeria will attain stability and marginal growth in which will set is in the right stead for real developmental to take place.

It starts from above. I have trust and faith in them to pull the country out of the rut we currently find ourselves in.

Dis Guy:

The Chief Executive Officer of Main One, Funke Opeke has restated the call for the creation of a national broadband strategy.

Opeke informed THISDAY that elsewhere across the globe, the creation of a national strategy that will enable broadband penetration was being pursued.

She gave examples of Ghana, where an ongoing initiative was on in this regard and the United States, where the Obama administration was recently launched a  broadband strategy to speed broadband penetration. She urged the Nigerian government to enable a strategy that define how improved access and lower cost of broadband can be achieved across Nigeria.

Opeke reiterated that most countries were increasingly focused on implementing such broadband strategies because of the proven impact on economic development.

She stressed that it will be critical for Nigeria to do the same if it wants to make the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Vision 20:2020 a reality. Broadband ,  often called high-speed Internet, because it usually has a high rate of data transmission relative to dial-up access over a modem is a critical tool that  drives development. Any economy that wants to be reckoned with cannot afford to ignore Broadband.
Thisday

Another is the aviation sector- the increasing bills and fuel saga, the cement manufacturers/importers, textiles manufacturers--these are all recurring issues for these sectors

_{Glad you mentioned the banking sector, people think the Mallam wakes up and make decisions without the bankers themselves e.g the cashless/electronic banking policy}

Honestly, I don't know what Ms Opeke is talking about. I don't know how such an initiative will bring much value, especially as all the Tier 1 carriers are buying capacity from her, save for Glo. Is she looking for government to roll out last-mile broadband solutions? There's actually a State Accelerated Broadband Initiative. I am not sure that is the burning issue right now.

Regarding aviation . . . well, it is the same Nigerians that resisted OBJ when he proposed that FAAN be unbundled, and the airports privatised, just like in Lagos (MMA2). I was at the International Airport over the weekend, and could not help thinking, despite all the shortcomings of MMA2, it is way more efficient than the International airport. No touts, decent parking arrangement . . . privatizing the airport does work. On the issue of fuel and debt, well the airlines themselves need to tighten up their ship, and stop biting off more than they can chew, Arik in particular. We have all seen how Aero and Virgin cut back their OPEX when they were struggling.

Then, banking . . . yeah, the Mallam does cut across that image, but nobody is riding roughshod over anybody, else we'd be in a much deeper crisis than we are now.

But you know what, all these issues we are discussing, it only becomes apparent that 70% of the problem is poor engagement of the government by  the private sector. Private sector needs to up its game and move to play a more prominent role in these critical sectors.

Not too far. We will see it.

@ OP,

Growth depends on the level we are looking at. Most important is the level of (un)employment. Is it rising or reducing? Are people feeling the impact? What the common man enjoys or not should be a true reflection of how much the economy is growing or not.

Also, whether service-oriented or manufacturing inclined? what areas are truly being developed relative to the rest of the world? We are getting better gradually, because we have no choice (just imagine what or how Nigeria would be without the GSM revolution, considering the fact that virtually every other country has/had adopted it). To me, those are just inevitable developments. Nigeria needs more than that to truly progress.

amy21
Posts: 13
i like you website, nice,

@AJ
I am of the optimistic school and quite agree with your initial post about strides in the service sector. As much as those things are not anywhere near where they should be, they are examples to show that things can actually work out for us.

What then is/are our problems? There is a very central problem I see that debars our progress and that is “Selfishness/greed of the moment” This is really caused by the feeling that resources are scarce, therefore let me just grab some for myself and my immediate interest. This has made it an issue for us to organize scarce resources in a manner that it will be beneficial to many. We think of self than many. Just look at situations when you have traffic gridlock only for you to find out that it was caused by two drivers who wouldn’t yield right of way to one another, in the end everybody now spends more time than we would have.

We need selflessness, humility in action and sincerity of purpose in the critical areas of social service in order for us to achieve real development. Political stability/policy summersaults have been an issue for us, but I think we are gradually achieving this. If this is achieved, I tell you we can up our security and infrastructure which will in turn allow for development in the real sector.

The multiplier effect of the foregoing is what we will have as development. The question is; in our individual capacities, what have we been doing to help the generality? Are joining others to do business as usual or we are selfless in our thoughts and actions.

@OP

We still have a long long way to go. As you acknowledged, most of the sectors you mentioned are service sectors.

Nigeria as a country imports almost everything she uses. She earns 95% of foreign exchange through oil. About $200million a day, that is a huge sum of money. If the cost of oil on the international market is dwarfed by any new technology by a significant amount, it will hit the Nigerian economy badly overnight.

Internet is not reliable/stable. No electricity. Virtually no manufacturing industry. Substantial growth of an economy is calculated by the amount of goods manufactured in that country. If that foreign exchange from oil stops flowing, those service industry you mentioned will crumble overnight, even people will not have the money to put in the banks, government will not have enough money to pay workers,there will be lack of fund to boost other sectors which have been neglected by our leaders for years, consumers will not have the cash to buy things, which will drastically affect traders.

Without concrete infrastructure. No real economic growth. We are barely surviving behind the shadow of oil money. A mere illusion. We need fundamental development and deep thinkers push it forward.