2012 Budget compared to 2011 and 2010 (3 year analysis)

From 2010 through to 2012, Nigeria would have spent around $84bn, of which $16bn would be for security.


I want to better understand Nigeria's budget proposal over the last three years.  I have found some data via "google" and the results look interesting.  The budget proposal usually goes through tos and fros so the actual spend may have some slight variances (a little bit up or down).

Based on the results, Nigeria's budgets have included $45bn on recurrent expenditure but only $24bn on capital (half of the recurrent). 


We have budgeted $10bn on servicing debt despite repaying all our external debt in the OBJ administration.

National Assembly and similar bodies have been budgeted to benefit from $5bn. 

Our security services account for $16bn despite the continued and huge insecurity.

Source:

2012: http: dailytrust.com.ng

2011:  http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/01/atiku-writes-jonathan-on-2011-budget/
2011: http://www.procurementmonitor.org/downloads/110207053537background%20pages%20to%20the%20Review%20of%202011%20Budget.pdf
2011: http://jideojong..com/2011/03/review-of-nigerias-2011-budget.html
2011: http://www.lesafriques.com/en/nigeria/nigeria-2011-budget-outline.html?Itemid=35?articleid=0359

2010: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2009/11/24/nigeria-budget-highlights-idUKGEE5AN27U20091124
2010: http://expertscolumn.com/content/nigeria-2010-budget-breakdown
2010: http://allafrica.com/stories/200912070348.html

Good Questions! So much money, very little impact!

$16 Billion Dollars later, security is barely visible. $24 Billion Capital vote and almost no real infrastructure development.

Truth be told, we have a structural problem that would prevent us from seeing any meaniful impact in time to come. There is too much federal character in the way our resources are allocated and that doesn't help matters.

I am hopeful though, as I'm beginning to see some fundamental changes in the operational patterns. Hopefully these changes would lead to some improvement. Afterwards, perhaps critical mass would set in and we would begin to see real impact.

We are closing out Jonathan's year two and so far, we are looking at Billions of Dollars unaccounted for. Budget Implementation Reports from this same administration for 2010, and 2011, continue to reveal poor project management practices by MDAs.

Nigeria is also creating quite a few extra-budgetary entities.

For example, the decline in foreign reserves is not budgeted. If subsidy is removed, the savings may go into another committee that is not included in the budget. Couple that with the Soverign Wealth Fund and the information black hole just gets bigger.

Interesting. I'll need to look through this more later. Btw can you upload your spreadsheet summarizing the results? Google doc it or something.

@Ekiti Bear

I will look into putting up a googledoc link.

Ekt_Bear,

Googledoc link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AoNYODeevplCdHBVZnVod1RHTnNYY3dDZTZKbF9LT0E

When you start asking questions on where certain monies are going to all those that eat crumbs from our corrupt govt officials will jump on the thread, take flight of their rational senses and start posting illogical arguments that is hard to comprehend how any sane man can make,

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-828350.0.html#msg9795771

Government have started sending out their agents of mass deceivers around. People claiming that recurrent expenditure is lower than capital expenditure. I'm getting tired O

Thanks Voodoo, but your but I was expecting though that you performed a HOR/VER Analysis on this numbers, nevertheless, thanks for your effort.

From looking at this chart, OMG, this is disturbing, does anyone see that there's a 103% increase from 2011 statutory transfers? That.s 2.02x what they received last year. Mean while Agriculture decrease from 2010 to 2012

@manny4life

I'm not familiar with HOR/VER analysis. I also wanted to make it as simple as possible. I think the trend so far could be improved. Clearly security is getting a lot of attention but it is still unclear where the "transformation" or "7 point plan" has been accounted for.

^^^^

That's cool man, thanks again for the info and the effort, I will assume everyone appreciates it. You have no idea how long I've been seeking this information to compare and contrast, which I have done, so it's cool.


You're right, security gets more attention as opposed to Agriculture that contributed 43% to our GDP, based on 2010 figures, Agriculture lost about twice it's amount since 2010. While I'm not questioning GEJ's Administration, I, somewhat do NOT agree with this budget. Security was increased so as to oppress the fellow Nigerians who will speak out in the wake of a protest. There were threads that was out that stated that Police Officer and their commands "were ready" to crush any protest that will cause instability to peace of the people.

How do you intend to improve in the economy where less than 3% of our GDP is spent on Capital Expenditures? Like seriously, how do you intend to grow?

manny4life:

^^^^

That's cool man, thanks again for the info and the effort, I will assume everyone appreciates it. You have no idea how long I've been seeking this information to compare and contrast, which I have done, so it's cool.


You're right, security gets more attention as opposed to Agriculture that contributed 43% to our GDP, based on 2010 figures, Agriculture lost about twice it's amount since 2010. While I'm not questioning GEJ's Administration, I, somewhat do NOT agree with this budget. Security was increased so as to oppress the fellow Nigerians who will speak out in the wake of a protest. There were threads that was out that stated that Police Officer and their commands "were ready" to crush any protest that will cause instability to peace of the people.

How do you intend to improve in the economy where less than 3% of our GDP is spent on Capital Expenditures? Like seriously, how do you intend to grow?

Yes, reduction in budget for agriculture really stood out. So the question is why? It doesn't make sense given GEJs commitment (well based on what he keeps saying) to make agriculture a top priority. A nearly 50% reduction in 2 yrs considering is rather puzzling. Do they plan to reduce the level of investment in agricultural projects?

Also does the 2012 budget reflect the potential savings from removal of oil subsidy? Can anyone clarify this

Btw - thanks VoodooDoll for putting this together (hope your voodoo is not the very potent Haitian type )

Thanks, I hope it is useful. It is quite poor play for the budgets to not match the rhetoric. And even if they were to fully implement the budgets as presented then we should at least see an improved security situation. The "voodoo" is ancestral but it has been severed a few generations before mine.

Another cut below - showing selected top items.

olly pass:

When you start asking questions on where certain monies are going to all those that eat crumbs from our corrupt govt officials will jump on the thread, take flight of their rational senses and start posting illogical arguments that is hard to comprehend how any sane man can make,

= Beaf

So allocations to the NDDC are through statutory transfers? Wow... I didn't know that.

VoodooDoll: What I cannot seem to find or spot though is the "Fuel Subsidy" line.

Haha, I've not being able to see that either, perhaps it's under a different account name.

@ topic, if the FG can no longer fund the police, it's high time they hand over police to the states, and make law regulating the process. No state governor should control a state police, police chiefs should be elected by the people and serve out terms like others do.

This is really awsome and i love that.. This is very unique thing you put on that post.. Thanks for sharing... Read

Thanks - was looking to update it but havent found the time yet.......

IF anyone has updated numbers or can be bring further clarity please update......

VoodooDoll: Thanks - was looking to update it but havent found the time yet.......

IF anyone has updated numbers or can be bring further clarity please update......

What are you looking to update?

manny4life:

What are you looking to update?

Do a roll forward to capture 2013....... either a Four year trend (2010 to 2013) or a three year trend (2011 to 2013).

That would effectively capture GEJ's budgets.... and take out the last Yar'Adua year. On the assumption that it is accepted that the budgets for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are all GEJ's....

Demdem:
So much money but very little to show for it. Only fools will rejoice at the site of crumbs when the potential to eat raw meat is presently available. Nigerians have been defrauded no doubt and its still ongoing till date.

So much money? When did 25 billion dollars become so much money for a country whose population is over 160 million people?

Ukraine is considered top 10 poorest countries in Europe and their annual military budget is 20 billion dollars and their population is just 45 million as @ 2015.

So just tell me why ur excited about dis small money.