www.theoccupynigeria.com/articles/65-arithmetic-of-fuel-subsidy

pls read jiboye's comment which is immediately after the article to see.why fuel subsidy needs to be removed ASAP!

60:40 JV sharing leaves Nigeria with a paltry 4.8Trillion of
which 4Trillion is budgeted for next year.

Currently, If everyday I
use 30litres of petrol(Car/Generator), at N65/Litre, I am benefitting N85/Litre
daily. This means that the government is spending N2550/day on me. This accrues
to N930,750.00 annually spent on me from subsidy.
Meanwhile the 60%
unemployed guys in yobe state who do not own cars, do not own generators all
are cheated in this subsidy.

http://theoccupynigeria.com/articles/65-arithmetic-of-fuel-subsidy


That is where the analysis came from,

Your first ommission is not remembering the 60:40 in our crude oil money. or is the government telling lies that they operate 60:40 jv production?
And you have misled 32people who clicked like and another 14 who posted comments.

Your second blunder is that you do not realize that this policy is NOT ABOUT INCREASING FUEL PRICE but about deregulating(stopping government interference with price)
This is the summary of our mathematics for next year. I expect you to do some background checks before replying me and labelling me a disgrace as most progovernment people are labelled. unfortunately i am not a politician. i am a controls system sonfiguration guy who has never made a dime off government.January
1999, crude oil was $17/barrel, 31 Jauary 2011 was the first time brent hit
$100/barrel since 2008 becos of the political unrest in Egypt. As of today, oil
price is $113/barrel and I will use 113 to show you why we need to borrow every year and deplete our reserves. 1. Crude oil
production per day is 2million barrels.

2. Current price= $113/barrel

3. Daily sales= 2.M x 113= $226million

4. Yearly sales= $226million x 365= $80billion

5. Naira equivalent =101.7billion x #160=13trillion naira
per year.

70% efficiency = 8 trillion (Because the system is not solid state and platforms shut in every once in a while)

60:40 JV sharing leaves Nigeria with a paltry 4.8Trillion of
which 4Trillion is budgeted for next year.

If the oil price drops to $100, that figure drops and If oil
stabilizes at oil futures optimal target of $70-80 at some point, we are in a
mess and we start borrowing again and that explains why our reserves are
depleting. Also remember that the 400k barrels for local consumption is imbedded in the 2million barrels.

Brothers/Sisters, my position is that we should not allow this subsidy
to even continue for one day. Or are you saying that
this leakages should continue until we fix all the NASS corruption?

Let us educate our people to look up data on
their own before taking anti or pro government stands.

Even if SURE implementation fails, I don't care. The PRIVATE
SECTOR opportunities will lead to creation of jobs. Eg NITEL has failed after
all the money pumped in but MTN, Airtel, Etisalat,Visafone is employing lots of
people. Try to calculate all the people engaged by these telecoms companies and
you will understand my position.

Do we know when next we will have a president
who is not thinking of 2nd term who will be ready to go against the
people? Another 10yrs will pass us by and I need people like you to educate
those who are not aware of the opportunities.

Currently, If everyday I
use 30litres of petrol(Car/Generator), at N65/Litre, I am benefitting N85/Litre
daily. This means that the government is spending N2550/day on me. This accrues
to N930,750.00 annually spent on me from subsidy.
Meanwhile the 60%
unemployed guys in yobe state who do not own cars, do not own generators all
are cheated in this subsidy.
However myself and
these unemployed buy food at the same costs(including conveyance/transportation
costs), so you can see that I am getting 930k extra which I don’t need from the
government which they will never get as long as they are unemployed dont own
cars and dont own generators.
Please think about
it, who needs the 900k more between me and the unemployed?
Is it a fair way of
sharing the country’s wealth?

Let us be fair to
our brothers who have no jobs!!!!!!!!!
Also for those poor
60% unemployed in Yobe state, they would prefer a health center with their
money equivalent or a graded village road. Remember they have already been
surviving on expensive kerosene for their fire woods and the food increases
barely get to them cos they live quietly in their farms but either way the
increment is across board but the excess money spent on people like me and more
excess on the wealthy who spend more petrol on their numerous cars, is thrown
into the society for the benefit of the less privileged.
It is beta to subsidize
mass transportation since the poorer people use mass transit than keep giving
money to those who don't need it.
Some people will
never enter Lagos are BRT buses or PH mass transit buses no matter the cost,
but there are people who will genuinely not be able to accomodate a fare
difference of N10.

This policy is for
the poor and we should really consider its benefits in addition to the job
opportunities.
NNPC will neva
work. All over the world, companies 100%owned and 100%run by the government neva
works.
When celebrated
personalities like Femi Falana, NLC, Okonjo iweala, TUC, Lamido Sanusi, Pat
Utomi and Tunde Bakare speak, people should check their comments on google
atleast.
There is no global
corporation in the size of NNPC and I will give some stats;

Petrobras: Brazil
government owns 64%
China Mobile:
chinese Government owns 74.22%
Indian Oil – Indian
Government (78.92%)
Neste Oil – Finland
Government ( 50.1%)
ONGC (Oil and
Natural Gas Corporation Limited) – India Government (74.14%)
Eni – Italian
government (30%)
France Telecom –
French Government (27%)
Saudi Aramco –
Saudi Government operated BOT system and their intial stake was 24% before
increasing it to 60% etc.
Venezuelas PDVSA –
Venezuela’s gov started withbuying 50% of Citgo before completing a takeover
and renaming it to PDVSA.
Kuwait oil - BP and
Gulf had been running the project since December 1934 before government took
over in 1975.
QP – (Superior oil
Qatar, and Shell company Qatar) and even then government started with a 24%
stake before increasing to 60% etc.
Even British
Airways was privatized in 1987 even though it still answers British airways.

The Government has
realized that NNPC downstream will never serve us, so the best thing is to
deregulate the sector allowing for the emergence of private refineries knowing
that NNPC refineries will die a natural death like NITEL died but then we have
MTN, Airtel, Glo, Etisalat etc.

From a humanist
perspective, a single 100,000barrel working refinery can create 3-5000
sustainable jobs. Here I am referring to averagely 30k jobs($30,000 annual
salary). How many of our banks and etc companies generate these types of jobs?
Out here we are
also looking at 1000regular employee jobs of averagely 50k for each refinery.
Imagine how many
refineries we will need to serve the entire 150million Nigerians and another
3.2million barrels daily serving an African population of 500million which will
grow to 2billion by 2050 because of Africa's highest birth rate in the world.
Opportunities like
this is the reason why countries like Iran are coming to west Africa to survey
the possibilities of buildng refineries while we are protesting subsidy.

Also, refineries
will produce byproducts which are capable of supporting other industries;
Alkenes (olefins) -
plastics industry
Lubricants
Wax - Used in the
packaging of frozen foods, etc
Sulfur or Sulfuric
acid.
Bulk tar.
Asphalt
Petroleum coke,
Paraffin wax
Aromatic
petrochemicals
Also, we need to
consider shipping companies who will be distributing our products to other
African countries. Rail shipping, road shipping, sea shipping companies will be
necessary.

This policy is the
fastest route to Six(6) million SUSTAINABLE jobs in ten(10) years, and it will
not be government created companies. These will be PRIVATE SECTOR OPPORTUNIST
powered.
This oil subsidy is
the single most potent policy that can transform our nation within the shortest
possible time frame and that explains why every president tries to remove the
subsidy.

And also when
people use the word “Cabal”. Its fallacy. These guys are doing nothing wrong.
Atleast nothing provably wrong. If the inspectors at the port say they saw the
supply of 15 or 20MT of petrol, you cannot say they didn’t see it. And its not
like its stored as it is supplied, Nigerians are consuming it daily as it is
supplied.
Eg. XYZ is given a
contract to import 1000MT, instead he supplies 200MT and tips the officials to
sign off 100MT. the books are balanced becos everybody at PPMC is tipped. And
the profits are so much that the tipping is too significant to turn down.
Now, when the 200MT
enters Nigeria, the guy who own a a filling station around the border states
recognize that if the fuel sell across the border for N180, then why sell at
N65. the margin of extra N115 means that If he uses a 10k petrol tanker, that
N1.2million instead of his paltry 100 or 200k profit If he sells at his local
filling station.
Nigeria has 14
border states and If you have been to some of these states, you walk on a
street and you are asking where the border lies. Some borders are in farmland.
So when you decide to invest on tighter border control, it means chasing every
motor cyclist who has tied six(6) jerryry cans and every guy who is carry
20litres of petrol in rubber across the farm border.

Also people say the
figures went up fron 400billion to 1.13Thrillion.
Part of the answer
is that the cost of subsidy depend on oil price and we should start be checking
oil price for each of those years during the period of increase. Also, we
should acknowledge that we have been paying subsidy for all the neighboring
countries too and reverting to N65 means we continue subsidizing for them.
And even if the
refineries were producing, we will still be producing and subsidizing for these
countries.

Also remember that
when the marketers are selling direct to the people, they have to convince us
to by the petrol and then our true consumption will be clear because we are in
No way consuming N1.13Trillion annually. Its like government deciding to put
the money in people's hands and saying pay for the fuel as you buy except that
the only way government can give out the money is infrastructure hence the
infrastructure listing on the SURE document and the sharing of the funds to the
LGAs.
Some Nigerians have
argued that they don't trust their states and LGAs but my perspective is that
we also dont trust the federal government, but people are closer to their
states and LGAs and it is easier to harrass your LGAs for accountability than
to harrass the federal government since we live closer to the people running
the LGAs.
Those in remote
areas don't need to start travelling to Abuja for answers to their immediate
complains If the LGAs are collecting money monthly.

As regards timing,
If this was done 10yrs ago, by now most of us won’t be working where we work at
the moment. Maybe we would have been the ones running one of the new companies
If we understood the opportunities in time.
Also regarding time,
we seem to be telling the gvernment that transformation should start after
one(1) yr or that we should grow slowly.
So when we say
Government should negotiate, we are saying we are not ready for massive
progress right now.

I admire the likes
of Occupy Nigeria, Campaign for Democracy, NLC but I tell people to ask every
NGO for their policies on education, economy, politics etc before joining them
in any campaign rally be it pro or anti.

There are three (3)
things you guys should ask for;

1. Tell the senate to cut down their salaries by 75%
immediately

2. Ask for Tax recovery commission.

ServeNigeria wrote
a legislation in 2008 about setting up a tax recovery commission which will go
round Nigeria and check If the estates(properties, businesses etc) owned by
every Nigerian is commensurate with the amount of Tax he/she has paid over the
years.
We estimated a
recovery of 13Thrillion naira because every politician who looted money would
be forced to pay back 20% of what he looted and it will be a win/win situation
for government and the “corrupt politicians”.

3. Ask for a legislation to be passed that every
year our recurrent expenditure must not be more that 25% of previous year Tax
revenue and that revenue from natural resources ahould be for only infrastructure
development.

These are more specific
things that will change everything overnight and things government can do in
3days.


I expect some
bashing but please I am writing as Uduak Asuquo and not on behalf of
ServeNigeria. You can as well send me mre curses on uduakeasuquo@yahoo.com

And meanwhile I have not
seen you economic policy online, where is occupy nigeria’s education policy,
where is your national integration policy? You guys should send me a link



Thanks and please
have a great year.

Apologies If my message
includes any offensive tone

Daily sales= 2.M x 113= $226million

SO how do we help Jonathan who is in dilemma. He is between his corrupt Godfadas who he can't touch and the Nigerian people who he has promised heaven and earth.

Nugwax:

As of today, oil
price is $113/barrel and I will use 113 to show you why we need to borrow every year and deplete our reserves. 1. Crude oil
production per day is 2million barrels.

2. Current price= $113/barrel

3. Daily sales= 2.M x 113= $226million

4. Yearly sales= $226million x 365= $80billion  

5. Naira equivalent =101.7billion x #160=13trillion naira
per year.

70% efficiency = 8 trillion (Because the system is not solid state and platforms shut in every once in a while)

60:40 JV sharing leaves Nigeria with a paltry 4.8Trillion of    
which 4Trillion is budgeted for next year.

kooto:

Tunde Bakare is spear heading the impeachment of Jonathan so that he and Buhari can come in. No body fights a fight without ulterior motive

with all the facts presented here; you can still think like that, kizito or what is your name 'don't know what to tell you. I see the president as someone too weak and needs somepeople he can lean on their shoulders, he laened on shoulders of those who advice him wrongly. fact, figures analysis abound for him now to channel the right course; my advice is for Mr, president to bury ego and despise shame to follow the lead provided for him, in this we will all be better for it.

ust a point to take note in this calculation
the division of litres by no of people, are we not suppose to be dividing by no of cars?
just a point to take note

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