I am surprised that a lot of people, especially South Easterners are advocating for a break up of Nigeria at this point in time because of the Boko Haram insurgency. That would be playing into the hands of the insurgents. If the country splits up, Boko Haram would easily beat the moderate muslins into submission and high jack power in Northern Nigeria. Remember northern Nigeria would stretch to Kwara in the west and Benue to the east. Nsuka is just 20mins from benue. So it would be easy for the fundamentalists to extend their Jihad to the east and the west and east.

Do the Igbos think they would be safer with a fundamentalist Muslim nation as a neighbour? They should ask Pakistan having Taliban as Neighbour. In fact a fundamentalist Northern Nigeria would destabilize the whole sub region.

The strategy of containing Bako Haram is to fight them under a powerful unified Nigeria and make sure the radical brand of Islam does not overwhelm the moderate Muslims.

I can tell you that the fundamental muslins have lots of backing ; financially, logistically and training wise from Iran, who also created Hizbollah to be a government of itself in Lebanon. Iran is preparing for their eventual war with Israel and US and they would need the support of a fundamentalist Nigeria.
If we want to break Nigeria, we should do it under controlled situation and not be pushed into knee jerk reaction and starting and unplanned conflict we have no control over the the eventual outcome.

Ur analysis is very interesting wit a lot of valid points. I mus say I never saw it that way. Nice one

The north have not experience war on it own, u think the south east and south west will fold their arms to be overrun by islamic fundamentalist?, wait till we get there it will be a different ball game entirely, then they will have a full taste of real war situation.

No,it will be more like North and South korea.
By the time the border area is planted with cluster bombs,they will retreat indefinitely. Read up on the korean forest of death for details.

What

The Pakistan are having problems because they have terrorist cells in their country created to serve the Pakistani government against it's neighbors . . . same trend with Northern Nigeria at the moment . . .If we should separate in whatever fashion and the necessary biometrics and data base of the citizens is built and maintained . . .Adequate security alertness . . . would make it difficult for whatever insurgent to pull off constant hits unabated as the Haramites are currently achieving.

better as neighbour than inside the same house.

Omanzo02
The north has a history of wars. It was with the instrument of war that the Fulanis were able to subjugate the Hausas and then went on to subjugate the whole of northen Nigeria. They were only halted by the Yorubas at Ilorin. So the yorubas have some experience in dealing with aggression by Muslim fundamentalists. The closest the Igbos got to a major war was the civil war which they lost. What makes you think they are in a better position to take on Muslim fanatics today without the alliance of other sections of the country.

No country defeats radical Islam easily, ask Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Pakistan, etc. They have very long staying power and can pursue their agenda for up to 50yrs.

The best strategy is not to allow them have a foot hold in your territory or region.

Shud44
It can never be like north and south Korea. North and south Korea are split along ideological lines; communism vs capitalism and not along religious and ethnic lines as with the case with Nigeria. Religious and ethnic conflicts are usually more bloody and protracted than ideological wars because there is no room for compromise.
The mines and fences along the border btw south and north Korea is to stop people running from the north to the south and not for war defences. It is common knowledge that mines are useless as a weapon of war, they only increase civilian casualties.

paragonpro:

I am surprised that a lot of people, especially South Easterners are advocating for a break up of Nigeria at this point in time because of the Boko Haram insurgency. That would be playing into the hands of the insurgents. If the country splits up, Boko Haram would easily beat the moderate muslins into submission and high jack power in Northern Nigeria. Remember northern Nigeria would stretch to Kwara in the west and Benue to the east. Nsuka is just 20mins from benue. So it would be easy for the fundamentalists to extend their Jihad to the east and the west and east.

Do the Igbos think they would be safer with a fundamentalist Muslim nation as a neighbour? They should ask Pakistan having Taliban as Neighbour. In fact a fundamentalist Northern Nigeria would destabilize the whole sub region.

The strategy of containing Bako Haram is to fight them under a powerful unified Nigeria and make sure the radical brand of Islam does not overwhelm the moderate Muslims.

I can tell you that the fundamental muslins have lots of backing ; financially, logistically and training wise from Iran, who also created Hizbollah to be a government of itself in Lebanon. Iran is preparing for their eventual war with Israel and US and they would need the support of a fundamentalist Nigeria.
If we want to break Nigeria, we should do it under controlled situation and not be pushed into knee jerk reaction and starting and unplanned conflict we have no control over the the eventual outcome.

Quit smoking the crap that makes you hallucinate while manning your keyboard. It took the entire northern region, both Muslims and Christians, western region, mid-western region, large number of easterners, British, Egypt, USSR, Australia, Arab League of Nations, Iran, Niger, Chad, Republic of Dahomey and Cameroon almost three years to subdue Biafra.

If Nigeria should disintegrate tomorrow, the hat of uneasiness about being invaded by neighbors should be worn by the other countries not Biafra or Republic of Igbo land.

The Sokoto Caliphate jihadists beat a hasty retreat at fringe borders such as Akinia, Akpanya and Ayangba during the epic battles of Huasa/Fulani-Akagbe wars where Igbo warriors perfected the act of separating heads from bodies.

Do you think it is a mere coincidence that Ndigbo remain the worst nightmare to northern region of Nigeria?

paragonpro:

Shud44
It can never be like north and south Korea. North and south Korea are split along ideological lines; communism vs capitalism and not along religious and ethnic lines as with the case with Nigeria. Religious and ethnic conflicts are usually more bloody and protracted than ideological wars because there is no room for compromise.
The mines and fences along the border btw south and north Korea is to stop people running from the north to the south and not for war defences. It is common knowledge that mines are useless as a weapon of war, they only increase civilian casualties.

Hm,I stand corrected but they have already gained a foothold. Our peculiar problem will be solved in an unprecedented manner. Until then,I guess.

My main fear is a divided south where all the sub regions are sharing border with the North. They can easily cönquer each region seperately.

Dede1

Quit smoking the crap that makes you hallucinate while manning your keyboard. It took the entire northern region, both Muslims and Christians, western region, mid-western region, large number of easterners, British, Egypt, USSR, Australia, Arab League of Nations, Iran, Niger, Chad, Republic of Dahomey and Cameroon almost three years to subdue Biafra.

If Nigeria should disintegrate tomorrow, the hat of uneasiness about being invaded by neighbors should be worn by the other countries not Biafra or Republic of Igbo land.

The Sokoto Caliphate jihadists beat a hasty retreat at fringe borders such as Akinia, Akpanya and Ayangba during the epic battles of Huasa/Fulani-Akagbe wars where Igbo warriors perfected the act of separating heads from bodies.

Do you think it is a mere coincidence that Ndigbo remain the worst nightmare to northern region of Nigeria?  

What makes you think a northern Nigeria would not have the support of most of those countries you quoted above? Are you telling me biafra's diplomacy has improved from pre 1970 levels where they got support from only 4 nations? Add to that Iran which also has subtle support from Russia.

Please give evidence to show that the north fears the Igbos, to me the only other tribe or ethnic group that the Hausa fulani respects is the Yorubas since they had been defeated by them before, and the Yorubas knows high wire diplomacy.

As I said the best way to defeat Boko Haram is for the SW and SS and Moderate Northern Muslims to pull resources together and eliminate their threat using Nigerias resources.

paragonpro:

Omanzo02
The north has a history of wars. It was with the instrument of war that the Fulanis were able to subjugate the Hausas and then went on to subjugate the whole of northen Nigeria. They were only halted by the Yorubas at Ilorin. So the yorubas have some experience in dealing with aggression by Muslim fundamentalists. The closest the Igbos got to a major war was the civil war which they lost.

I thought this was meant to be an intelligent thread? How does an 18/19th century Africa Jihad fought with spears and horse-back compare with a cold-war era alliance fought by two military giants against a small fledgeling part of Africa?

paragonpro:

Do the Igbos think they would be safer with a fundamentalist Muslim nation as a neighbour? They should ask Pakistan having Taliban as Neighbour. In fact a fundamentalist Northern Nigeria would destabilize the whole sub region.

Why do these threads always somehow face Igbo people like they're even the one that are now at the fore-front of secession? Igbo people are bordered to the North by Christian Igala and Idoma. All the way north of them we have Tiv and Berom people who make up a significant amount of the Nigerian military and who have recently been filmed eating Hausa people.

Ezeagu

History has lots of influence on wars. Though the weapons had become more sophisticated, the principles is still the same. A country with a long history and experience of war is more likely to defeat a country with little experience but with more men and more sophisticated weaponry. Ever wonder why some people had never lost a war, like the British (who only lost to the US during the independence war), the US (who had never lost a war), the afghans (the only people to have fought two super powers) and remain standing and the Vietnamese.

And sorry that I forgot to add the Ethiopians, who had never lost a war to anybody stretching back 5000 yrs.

paragonpro:

Ezeagu

History has lots of influence on wars. Though the weapons had become more sophisticated, the principles is still the same. A country with a long history and experience of war is more likely to defeat a country with little experience but with more men and more sophisticated weaponry. Ever wonder why some people had never lost a war, like the British (who only lost to the US during the independence war), the US (who had never lost a war), the afghans (the only people to have fought two super powers) and remain standing and the Vietnamese.  

This is really naive. This would make sense if the Sokoto and Oyo armies still exist and had been fighting wars since. This is completely irrelevant to the modern world. It's almost like talking about how Italy can beat the US because of the Roman Empire. Afghanistan has fought no country in modern times. Please read up on current events, even a little. The Afghan government was never at war with the US or any other world power in the last 20 years, the government itself hardly even exits. Instead the US were chasing a large group of armed bandits who forced their way into power and are suspected of plotting several terrorists attacks on their soil, similar to Boko Haram. Vietnam is also a completely different case to Biafra as these were well armed soldiers in a country backed by the Soviet Union, you may have heard of them. In Biafra's case, the soviet union was against them along with Britain and Egypt, in a war that lasted 3 years with little ammunition, international support, and a blockade. Please, before we make any of these claims lets be certain.

Do Igbos share a border with islamic northern Nigeria?
Will the Tiv, Idoma, Igala, Igbira (mostly Christians) and other northern ethnic groups with whom the Igbos share boarders and who have no love lost for Hausa/Fulani not be conquered first before it gets to the Igbos?

Will Igbos be sleeping, while those ones are being conquered?

@paragonpro and @sheyguy, So do you honestly believe that North in a million years will defeat Igboland? If you think so then you must not know Igbo. Even many reputable Nigeria generals after the civil war made it clear that if Biafra had 1/2 of what Nigeria had that Nigeria would have lost woefully. So this BS of "Igbo lost" is over played and we know why. But if you still believe your story then you dont have to worry about us in the event of Hausa-Fulani vs Igbo 'cuase personally I have never lost sleep over that. I want to know any Nation that was founded, encircled and fought against almost immediately with all the world powers on the side of the invader and that same nation lasted for 3 years? Do you think its easy to survive against British and Soviet interests put together? Boy we did it for three years. We survived for 3 years against world powers and all other ethnic groups put together and you think Hausa-Fulani has something on us? We know what world powers did to Germany and we also know how Russia, Britain, Arab, neighbouring African countries, and over 300 ethnic groups fared against a fledgling and encircled young nation that was born on the eve of war.

Those wars of the 1800s and back have no relevance in modern day warfare. The OP is an ignoramus

sheyguy:

My main fear is a divided south where all the sub regions are sharing border with the North. They can easily cönquer each region seperately.

May be they will defeat the Yorubas, but definitely not the Igbo. As long as all southern groups fight their own wars against the Islamic North and not interfere with other southern groups by joining with the islamic North, this is going to be a war that the islamic north will NOT win. They still have to fight the Beroms, Tivs, Idomas, etc in the North. How many liver they get?

Ezeagu

Haba how can you say that the afghan government had not fought any country within the last 20yrs. Who was running the government when September 11 took place? Was it not the Taliban. The taliban was the defacto government until they were overthrown by US forces and their allies. It was after the overthrow that the Taliban went under ground and stated waging a guerrilla war against the US and today they have grown in strength again that they are threatening the present government.

Please brush up your history.

paragonpro:

Ezeagu

Haba how can you say that the afghan government had not fought any country within the last 20yrs. Who was running the government when September 11 took place? Was it not the Taliban. The taliban was the defacto government until they were overthrown by US forces and their allies. It was after the overthrow that the Taliban went under ground and stated waging a guerrilla war against the US and today they have grown in strength again that they are threatening the present government.

Please brush up your history.

The fact is the Taliban government wasn't recognised by everyone and it had an opposition, even if it was recognised its situation is still incomparable to that of Biafra. Even if it was comparable to Biafra, guess what? The Taliban government was overthrown in a matter of months.

Nchara, there is more to war than the actual fight on the battle field. The most important aspect of war is diplomacy and the Hausa - Fulanis are the masters of building alliances. They can make a Saraki or an Awoniyi fight for their interest against their ethnic group. When the war starts they would know how to reel in the birom, tiv, jukun, and other minority tribes in the North. I am sure they would even have some allies among the Igbos because when I was up north I knew a lot of Igbo boys who had become Abubakar Mohammed and pray facing east. They had been completely absorbed into the North.

The main problem of the Igbos is their inability to build alliances, they are not ready to give in order to take.

Tell them, it will only take 4 years for them to arm their new country to the teeth with arms imported from their brother evil axis nation and attempt to grab more territory for themselves by following the Othman Dan Fodio model.

For those of you thinking they will suffer as they have no oil, there are two things;

1. I personally feel there are vast oil and gas reserves in the north. Look at it this way, Libya has oil, beneath Libya there is oil in Niger republic and there is oil in the Niger delta. What makes anyone think new fields will not be discovered in the land mass between Niger republic and Niger delta. Invest billions in seismic studies and find out.

Oil reserves in Libya is vast. That of Niger republic equally vast and the north and Niger is basically the same terrain. Lets stop fooling ourselves

2. If they do not have oil, the more reason why they will invade the south.

What we need is purposeful leadership, that will send fear down their spines. We need a leader that will tell them with strong conviction that there will be no hiding place for them in Nigeria as WE WILL EVENTUALLY CRUSH THEM.

We need a leader that will restructure our intelligence gathering outfits, procure new technology and training for the personnel, infiltrate their organization and get it to destroy itself.

Jonathan is clearly not that leader.

paragonpro:

Nchara, there is more to war than the actual fight on the battle field. The most important aspect of war is diplomacy and the Hausa - Fulanis are the masters of building alliances. They can make a Saraki or an Awoniyi fight for their interest against their ethnic group. When the war starts they would know how to reel in the birom, tiv, jukun, and other minority tribes in the North. I am sure they would even have some allies among the Igbos because when I was up north I knew a lot of Igbo boys who had become Abubakar Mohammed and pray facing east. They had been completely absorbed into the North.

The main problem of the Igbos is their inability to build alliances, they are not ready to give in order to take.

As long as the war is multi-pronged, as long as it is not Igbo versus others, the islamic North will lose. The Tiv, Beroms and other xtian northerners know better now. The core North has not been able to rein them in this time around. The Igbos will make it clear that it is the islamic hausa/fulani (and may be kanuri war) against the other Nigerian tribes. On the bolded, there are Igbos who are muslims as their are hausa/fulani who are christians. They can be throwing bombs now but at that time, all others will be throwing bombs at them. Anyways, let us get to that bridge before crossing it.

Am more worried about the Christians in the north and middle belt. As for the north fighting the igbos that will be ridiculous even terrorism will be difficult unless they use Yoruba Muslims cus hausas can easily be identified in igboland. It may take them the whole Muslim nations support to come close to that but when it comes to that stage we also will get allies bu I doubt if it will. We repelled them before and we will do it again

bashr8:

Am more worried about the Christians in the north and middle belt. As for the north fighting the igbos that will be ridiculous even terrorism will be difficult unless they use Yoruba Muslims cus hausas can easily be identified in igboland. It may take them the whole Muslim nations support to come close to that but when it comes to that stage we also will get allies bu I doubt if it will. We repelled them before and we will do it again

Actually, the war may turn out to be Muslim north against the rest of Christian Nigeria. Its gonna be reverse Jihad.

Nchara:

Actually, the war may turn out to be Muslim north against the rest of Christian Nigeria. Its gonna be reverse Jihad.

Those middle belt guys go chop their meat lol, I think that is the northern muslims worst nightmare now to be eaten

paragonpro:

Dede1

What makes you think a northern Nigeria would not have the support of most of those countries you quoted above? Are you telling me biafra's diplomacy has improved from pre 1970 levels where they got support from only 4 nations? Add to that Iran which also has subtle support from Russia.

Please give evidence to show that the north fears the Igbos, to me the only other tribe or ethnic group that the Hausa fulani respects is the Yorubas since they had been defeated by them before, and the Yorubas knows high wire diplomacy.

As I said the best way to defeat Boko Haram is for the SW and SS and Moderate Northern Muslims to pull resources together and eliminate their threat using Nigerias resources.

I do not know when and where Yoruba defeated Sokoto Caliphate or combination of Hausa and Fulani armies. But I do remember Sokoto Caliphate had free reign on women in Ogbomosho and Osogbo. Sokoto Caliphate’s attempt to set feet in Igbo land met a thorough defeat.

Of course, Hausa or Fulani do not worry about Yoruba because the Yoruba will always run second fiddle to Hausa or Fulani. Today, every reasonable politician from northern region, mainly Hausa, Fulani or Kanuri ancestry shall not fail to thank the Yoruba and other ethnicities in southern Nigeria baring Biafrans for helping them in defeat of Biafra when the oportunity presnts itself.

Let me state unequivocally that no single ethnic group in Nigeria will survive a week of war with Ndigbo.

The outcome of Nigeria/Baifra war of 1967 did not predicate on diplomacy. However, I would say the clash of personalities and assumed fallacies surrounding the crude oil in eastern region dictated the tune of support. I guess certain folks in Nigeria must have realized the crude oil is more of a curse to Nigeria than a blessing.   

I do not bloody care about the devastating consequence the disintegration of cesspit called Nigeria will bring. All I want is split the accident called Nigeria.

As of today, America and Europe will not support Islamic northern Nigeria because they now know what it is to support terrorists: there will always be a backlash
They do not have to support Igbo (or the south either)
As long as they remain neutral and sell arms to any groups with the highest cash, that will be okay
Once the Arab countries support Islamic northern Nigeria, then America and the rest of the Christian world would join the fray
Baring any interference, in a Hausa/Fulani versus Igbo war, Igbos will defeat them. The entire Nigeria could not defeat the Igbo in 3 years, let alone Hausa/Fulani
Excluding foreign interference and the gang up against us, the outcome of the war would have been different
Prof Falola of the University Texas revealed recently that if the war was fought today, the strength of Igbos in the US alone would have allowed  IGBOS win the war.

Take home message:

1. The Berom, Tivs, Igbirra, Idoma, Jukun etc (all having serious problems with the Islamic north [Hausa/Fulani precisely]) will not fight with their enemies against the south and the south will not fight them in return

2. The Ijaw, Ibibio Edo, Itshekiri Urhobo (and[b] HOPEFULLY [/b]the Yoruba) etc will not join the North against the Igbo. Everyone has wizened up now. So who does the Hausa/Fulani want to fight?

1) If there were a U.N. Sponsored Referendum today, I am of the opinion that Northern Nigeria would actually lose territory in relation to how the territory was mapped out under Lugard as the people of the middle belt would opt to go with the South.

2) The truth is that the Islamic separatist aggressors will not give up their cause hence all other communities have choices to either band together to control the eventual outcome of their expansionist aggression or to fall prey and wait like sitting ducks.

3) A genuine SNC can only be conducted after the Islamic North have been excised from the Union. From this point, which ever Community would like to go their separate way, subject to a referendum should be allowed to peacefully under the supervision or input of international mediators. The idea is to let the people decide, and in reality the different peoples of the South do not have to like one another or hold hands as neighbours whilst skipping into the SunSet. If they want to go off and do their own thing, let them.

4) So let's talk about Military strategies, it's simple really. The Western Militia (Yorubas) hold the Western flank, the Eastern Militia (Ndigbo) hold the Eastern Flank, The Tivs, Beroms etc hold the Middle Belt (Centre ground) which serves as a buffer to the other Militias, and Further South (Ijaws, Itshekiri, Ilajes etc) hold the rear flank (part Coast), just in case or as a back up. Game over (game, set and match) to Northern Islamic domination.