By Ochereome Nnanna
THE Coalition of Northern Leaders (made up of chairmen of the ten committees of politicians, professionals, academics and businessmen) leaders have met and issued what I choose to term as a “three-point agenda”.

These cover the areas of (a) what they described as President Jonathan’s “third term”/tenure elongation bid (b) north’s new campaign for more money from the oil wealth of Niger Delta and (c) their bid for the northernisation of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

In a statement, the group claimed that President Goodluck Jonathan is eyeing a “third term agenda/renewed tenure elongation”. According to them, the Justice Alfa Belgore Committee set up to “create a so-called new constitution” is aimed at getting for Jonathan a total of thirteen years in power.

Their math indicated that the “nearly two years he had served as part of the Yar’ Adua presidency” was the first term. He is serving his second term. If he contests in 2015 for a seven-year single term (which they say he is eyeing) that will be the dreaded “third term”. The nation, they boasted, “with the North at its head” will fight to stop Jonathan.

One thing is clear from this particular section of the northern agenda. The politics of 2015 is in play. It is not impossible that President Jonathan is eyeing another go for a second term even though he promised to run for only one term. Some of his kinsmen (such as Asari Dokubo) have opined he should be there for “eight years”. We have also seen the alignment of presidential power behind the candidature of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur for National Chairman of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which is bad news to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s ill-concealed presidential ambition.

Tukur in, Atiku out

With Tukur as National Chairman, Atiku’s presidential ambition will not fly since it will not be possible to have both president and the ruling party’s national chairman from the same state, tribe and hometown (Yola in Adamawa State). Atiku is clearly behind the assemblage of these strange bedfellows in the Coalition of Northern Leaders.

Raising the sceptre of “third term” was what he used to mobilise the north against former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s genuine third term ambition. Atiku could bank on the assumption that if he knocks aside GEJ’s perceived ambition his own chances will be enhanced.

But the assumption that the north “is at the head” of Nigeria is not borne out by facts of our recent political history. That is an anachronistic assumption of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s when the north used military power to enforce its political agenda through the political parties. It is a notion often bandied about by General Ibrahim Babangida and Atiku but which no longer holds water. The current reality is that no region (not even the north) “is at the head”.

If the north were still at the head, it would have successfully brushed GEJ aside in the transitional politics of 2010 and 2011. But its chosen candidate, Atiku Abubakar, woefully lost the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) primaries while its main regional candidate, Major General Muhammadu Buhari, also lost the presidential election by a wide margin. No region is able to impose itself on the rest of the country in Nigeria of today.

If there is any single biggest factor that determines who occupies the presidential seat, it is the Nigerian Presidency or specifically the President in power. It is sad to admit this, but it is true. However, the Presidency or the President may not be able to change the Constitution to give himself additional term of office outside what is currently in the 1999 Constitution. That is because Nigerians (not the north, west or east) are genuinely against tenure elongation no matter who is involved or under whatever guise. The war on self-succession was invented in the southern media against northern despots such as General Yakubu Gowon, General Ibrahim Babangida and General Sani Abacha.

Ironically, when Babangida and Abacha were manipulating the system to transform into civilian presidents with unlimited tenures, it was northern politicians and some of their southern followers (Bukar Mandara, Wada Nas, Arthur Nzeribe, Orji Kalu, Wole Oyelese, Godwin Adzuana, Buba Galadima and so on) who pushed it. When Obasanjo failed to learn the lesson of history and tried his hand on the tenure elongation forbidden fruit, the north was as enthusiastic as others in the effort to stop him.

GEJ’s ambition and other variables: If GEJ wants to run for second term in 2015, we will look at his ambition on its merit. We will remember he promised to run for only one term. Then, we will check his performance (which today is still very poor and untenable). Other variables will also come into play: such as whether there is a regional gang-up to wrest power unfairly from a Minority president. We will also check whether those who are behind this gang-up are the perceived sponsors of the Boko Haram terrorism which is being used to make Nigeria ungovernable as some politicians from the north threatened when they were faced with defeat through the democratic processes in 201/2011.

If we find out that those ganging up are still the same people who failed in 2010/2011, we are likely to use the formula that led to their failure against them once again. But if we see something new, something more promising, something better and something more Nigerian and less sectional than what Babangida, Atiku and Adamu Ciroma concocted in 2010/2011 we will address it on its merit.

Our war against tenure elongation is not an ethnic or sectional battle. It is a genuine national agenda to preserve our democracy and ensure equitable access to power by all sections of the country. Tenure elongation will not be bad because it is a northerner seeking it and good because it is a southerner after it. It is not a war waged through hypocrisy or sectional fundamentalism. Nobody can use it to bamboozle Nigerians because when we are very familiar with it.

Three factors stand between President Jonathan and his possible candidature for president in 2015. The first is his public declaration to stand for only one term. It does not matter the negotiations or arm-twisting that forced him to give that undertaking. The second factor that could be used to knock aside this public undertaking will be his performance. We would know if he performed. It will have nothing to do with propaganda either from his spin doctors or his bloodthirsty opponents.

Stable power supply

It will be easy to determine. For instance, if we begin to experience stable power supply (not merely more megawatts of electricity); if the trains begin to run on all their old routes; if our agricultural achievements have moved to the level where we no longer import rice or food and if we have become self-sufficient in refined petroleum products, we will consider GEJ as the man who will take the country to the Promised Land. All these would have drastically reduced unemployment, crime and terrorism and more resources will be channelled to greater social welfare for all Nigerians. By 2015 GEJ would have been in power for nearly six years. That is enough time for us to make up our minds as to whether he is fit for a (second) term. If we remain where we are, then he should forget it.

And that is where the third option will offer itself more poignantly: the search for the messiah. When the search begins, we will not be looking in the direction of regional warlords and carpetbaggers whose domination of the system in times past spread poverty all over Nigeria.

We will not consider it in favour of those who incubated the children of the poor in the north as “almajiris” while they sent their own children to the best schools in the world so that they will return to rule those their fathers impoverished. It will not be for discredited neo-colonialists and religious extremists, whose only interest in Nigeria is the oil wealth of Niger Delta and the lion’s share of the National Cake.

We will be looking for those who can make Nigeria truly great. On Thursday we will bare our minds on the two remaining issues, especially the new ploy for the regionalisation of the FCT.

Robbed at gunpoint!

EVERY time I drive through our dark urban roads at night and see hundreds of young Nigerians hawking consumer goods to survive, I realise just how lucky Nigeria is to be blest with youth who would rather suffer and endanger their lives working to survive rather than steal.

On Tuesday, March 13th, at about 9.00pm, two young people in their late teens sidled up to my car at Fadeyi Bus Stop along the Ikorodu Expressway when there was a traffic snarl. They pointed pistols at me and ordered me to wind down my glass. They succeeded in making off with my Nokia N8 and my wallet containing about N3,000, my voters card, driver’s licence and staff identity card.

I have already sworn to an affidavit in court and have reported to the Onipanu Police Station where I was issued with a police report to retrieve my Glo GSM SIM card and my photo ID’s. We thank God for His continued protection over us and pray that government would help the youth of this country. Otherwise, we may get to the point where they will no longer be satisfied with taking our material possessions alone.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/03/norths-three-point-agenda-a-critique/

This is a great report. The author failed to include in his forward thinking analysis the contingency of a cecession by the North post 2015. They have attempted twice post independence to cecede and each time persuaded against it. The option has gained new awareness and popularity amongst the Northerners. It would be a bad day if it happens on their terms and when they are in power. The period between 2015 and 2020 could very well deliver that reality.

Dudu_Negro: This is a great report. The author failed to include in his forward thinking analysis the contingency of a cecession by the North post 2015. They have attempted twice post independence to cecede and each time persuaded against it. The option has gained new awareness and popularity amongst the Northerners. It would be a bad day if it happens on their terms and when they are in power. The period between 2015 and 2020 could very well deliver that reality.

Thanks for being a small student of history, even when you got the spelling of "secession"; but know that if and when the North secede, the South will live fighting wars over our common boundaries.