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windywendy (f)
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@windywendy
thats exactly what i mean ma'am.
NAMPAK are their main competitors in the packaging industry and will have the muscle of their larger company to push Bagco all the way. NAMPAK are doing well in that area already and will look to consolidate of course as thats one of the few areas they've managed to do well in, but as brother jehoshaphat pointed out, bagco have other ways of reducing operational costs and have a ready made client in flourmills.
Well, you're absolutely right, and infact that was one of my main reservations. I don't see Nampak sitting down and folding their arms while Bagco is trying to invade their space in the flex packaging market. But Bagco already has a market (at least flour mills will be using a lot of those flex packages), and so at least has a fighting chance. This is one area I think they can leverage the muscle of the parent. But let's see how it plays out eventually. As an aside, how's it going with the new baby  ? |
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aktopgun (m)
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@jehoshaphat et al
why do u think ABC are good to get into regardless? any info to share bruvs?
i notice they did not specify what they expect this new division to add to their bottom line in terms of figures
is Obajana operational yet?
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aktopgun (m)
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@windywendy
as i said to roughcut and the guys earlier, the boy is still doing african time with us o my sister, he must think it's too cold to come out or something. well he better hurry up because it's only going to get colder anyway
thanx for asking though, my fellow nairalanders will be the third group to know after me, my wife and our family, trust me
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windywendy (f)
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My guy, the answer still seems to be no. I decided to build my own (after all, they are nothing but glorified designer spreadsheets) but oga Wanaj0 unleashed a killer amount of data and I've been too buy drooling to start work on the technical aspect of my spreadsheet. It looks like we (nairalanders) have no choice but to build ours since no broker/analyst/website/programmer has released a useful working version. I'll prob have mine done in a week.
Wendy was quoting a proshare article. It was also CSMAs. Not much required to calculate those.
Which proshare article was that? I wasn't quoting any proshare article. I use excel to do moving averages, and I do that for stocks that trigger my interest |
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RoughCut (m)
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What has changed about japaul?it wasnt a favorite before.do u see them beating their forecast because of their international reach?Didint EVEN ATTEMPT TO BUY PO.
On GTBank,the PE i have is above 21.any chance they might surpass their projected PAT?Anybody knows which quarter thay make a chunk of their money?
Japaul oil made PAT N317M for Q3 and N134M or 70% of that figure came from Q3 alone and they have projected PAT for full-year in the region of N444M in the offer prospectus so you can reasonably assume they are on their way to beat that forecast. Going by the results you would have a forward PE of 22(if you had bought befôre TS was lifted you would have bought a at a forward PE of 10.36 which is not too far from the projections in the prospectus and more importantly how cheaper can you get?) and the forward EPS is 36.1K which is excellent for a ~N6 stock. The projection is based on 1.166B outstanding shares as at now and obviously the new shares will not be listed before DEC 31 when they release the FY 07 results So like i said earlier not sure where you got the impression that the stock was a no-no in fact it is a YES-YES and the funny thing is by the time you open a position it might have become expensive in terms of the price-earnings multiple(another term for PE ratio) |
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jehosaphat
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@ aktopgun I need to investigate ABC more intensely before saying more but they just completed their terminal in Ghana, and this haulage thing might be profitable ( even without Obajana). More scrutiny is needed on their balance sheet, management, competitors, what not but am gearing up for '08. You sure say u no wan call your pikin Jehosaphat? That's guaranteed wisdom ( and proverbs) for life,  Best of wishes man, |
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tonyjon (m)
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@jehoshaphat
thanks for the info man. made things clearer definitely
i do think though that if you can afford it buy the goose instead of the egg ie flourmills instead of bagco.
bagco contributes to flourmills' bottom line because they own 70% of bagco and therefore 70% of whatever profit bagco make until that situation changes.
i know flourmills may be a bit steep in terms of price but if one can i would think this would be a better option, not to say bagco in itself isn't a good buy
Bagco is a good buy but there will be oversubscription and money will be refunded back to many people. Peace. |
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windywendy (f)
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@WINDYWENDY,
PLEASE WHICH FIRM IS YOUR STOCK BROKER ?
FSDH |
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windywendy (f)
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@all
This thread has no doubt become the single most important resource on the NSE. My brother called me today asking precisely the same questions about the NSE that have been addressed on this forum. Of course all I did was send him the link.Great forum greater people.
Perhaps the single most important contribution I have seen yet is from fatherof2. It is the concept of picking specific stocks on monday and selling on thursday or friday to make 25%. This concept that I will call the Fatherof2 factor of the NSE, immediately obnoxious, detestable and entirely against the idea of a stock exchange was not devised but revealed to all by our contributor. There is no doubt that a lot of people have made billions from the system using this ingenious tactic. We hope regulators are observing this trend (if they are not part of this awoof strategy). . . Don't be deceived. NO BODY makes 25% return every week on the NSE, not even Fatherof2 himself . @Fatherof2, if na lie I lie, please speak up  |
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windywendy (f)
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awwwww, thanks for the clarification I was beginning to think there was another windywendy impostor |
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Mr. Cee (m)
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@ ALL
Please if I want to insert quotes from previous pages how would I go about it?
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pumping777 (m)
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@ Pumping
When you refer to "cheaper deals in the market or about to come out", would you kindly point out a couple ( Cheaper than Bagco) so that I pounce on them? I know you don't mean Zenith, Fidelity and Afribank. Phb is definitely a buy but Bagco ranks among the better offers for sure. Like Wanajo said about Aiico, they merged with (or bought) another coy so we don't even know what the true outstanding shares are yet. Costain should be good too, lets wait and see.
Bank PHB and Zenith are better priced POs in my opinion even based on current earning levels. So I don't even want to consider that I have not seen Zenith's prospectus. I have my analysis on Bagco, Bank PHB and Zenith in this thread somewhere. No patience to dig them out right now. My analysis of Bagco is based on what they have projected in their prospectus. Based on this projection, it is expensive for the price. I am not talking about the nominal price now. I have seen other analysis suggesting that the projections are conservative so maybe Bagco will do better. If this is the case, good, but I don't want to assume they will do better than they have promised. On the other hand, there is money to be made with the Bagco offer because it is an IPO (Not PO) and will be listed for the first time. The price is likely to head north as we have seen with most newly quoted stocks (Not like Transcorp sha!!). It will most likely be oversubscribed so there is the chance of making quick bucks. This will likely be based on sentiments and not necessarily the good returns from Bagco. |
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pumping777 (m)
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@ ALL
Please if I want to insert quotes from previous pages how would I go about it?
Locate the post from the user. Click on the user name to go to the profile page. At the bottom, under "Additional Information", Click on "Show the last posts of this person". Locate the post and click on "quote". Fire on. |
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windywendy (f)
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AG Leventis (Last Fiscal Year)
The turnover of the company increased by 1.43%, from N7 billion to N7.1 billion in 2006. profit after tax also increased from N343 million to N395 million in 2006, an increase of 14.9%. The full year EPS stood at N0.18, while a dividend of N0.10 was approved. The company is likely to begin manufacturing of generators here in Nigeria, and this will boost its profitability in the nearest future. It would interest you to know that Nigeria is the largest importer of generators in the world at present.The register closure date ids May 14, 2007.
So in Q-4, turnover grew from 5.08B to 7.1B but PAT only grew from 0.36B to 4B. Most of the PAT was reported in Q-3 in 2006 and also in 2007, but Q-4 2006 recorded a PAT that is only about 25% of the PAT in Q-3 2006.
To summarize, I think one can enter this short term because this growth may not be sustained in Q-4.
@Pumping777, I'm still interested in why you think growth may not be sustained for AG leventis. Just checking to be sure I have all my facts right . . . |
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damoche07 (m)
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@Pumping777, I'm still interested in why you think growth may not be sustained for AG leventis. Just checking to be sure I have all my facts right . . .
Think he used past performances in that quarter to project.seems they made less profit in Q4 for the last two years.Think the pattern might not be sustained? |
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windywendy (f)
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Think he used past performances in that quarter to project.seems they made less profit in Q4 for the last two years.Think the pattern might not be sustained?
Oh ok. Thanks for the clarification |
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pumping777 (m)
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Think he used past performances in that quarter to project.seems they made less profit in Q4 for the last two years.Think the pattern might not be sustained?
Thanks. I think my using the phrase "growth may not be sustained" is confusing. I meant to say that after checking previous years, the PAT generated in Q-4 is only about 25% of the PAT reported in Q-3 which is the quarter in which majority of PAT is reported. So in projecting full year PAT one should not make a linear projection. So calculation of FY PAT = 4/3 multiplied by Q-3 PAT may result in a grossly inaccurate projection. My conservative full year PAT based on this observation is now 460M instead of 550M.  |
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pumping777 (m)
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Still on AG Leventis.
Let me throw this to the house. I need help here. I am attaching 3 years interim results (Thanks bro). The Q-1 for 2006 is missing.
Please project PAT for full year 2007 based on the interim results for 2007 and the pattern from 2005 and 2006. I am beginning to think the 460M I have projected is too conservative.
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shigidi (m)
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@ EASIMONI, TEMMIE10, gtb PAT last year was 13bn, and so far they have grown 55%. thats already 20bn, i expect them tov hitbmore and get about 21bn, thats chow i got my forward pe of 18.7
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shigidi (m)
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unic climbed up today, na una cause am oooooooooooooooooooooooo |
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easimoni (m)
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Still on AG Leventis.
Let me throw this to the house. I need help here. I am attaching 3 years interim results (Thanks bro). The Q-1 for 2006 is missing.
Please project PAT for full year 2007 based on the interim results for 2007 and the pattern from 2005 and 2006. I am beginning to think the 460M I have projected is too conservative.
The results are funky: over the last 7 Qs, they've been making ~100M per Q and in the 3rd Q of the current year, they make 200M despite a DROP in revenue. The % increase over the same period last year was not impressive because they restated the 9 mnth 06 as 355 when it was 298. If we think they still make 100M per Q, the FY will be ~510. If they make 200M per Q from this point forward, FY will be closer to 610 |
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easimoni (m)
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unic climbed up today, na una cause am oooooooooooooooooooooooo What about "our" university press. Up 10% in the last 2 sessions. Na Shigidi cause am o.  My broker no see buy again. Next time, I no go talk until I don buy finish.   |
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easimoni (m)
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ALL (esp those of you who use the FSDH report to build your own sheets)
I hope you noticed the change in WAPIC's name and location on the report. Screwed up my trend analysis till I noticed.
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pumping777 (m)
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Alert!!!
I suppose most saw the results of Premier paints today.
Very fishy. Suddenly we have results for 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006.
Losses in 2003 and 2004 with the company returning to profit in 2005 and 2006!!
Profit in 2006 is 9.4M from a turnover of 203.1M. However, exceptional item of 25M, so it should really have been a loss of 16.6M.
Smells very much like Livestock Feeds. The next thing I suspect is the announcement of a PO or rights issue for a company that has rebounded to profits.
I just have the feeling.
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pumping777 (m)
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The results are funky: over the last 7 Qs, they've been making ~100M per Q and in the 3rd Q of the current year, they make 200M despite a DROP in revenue. The % increase over the same period last year was not impressive because they restated the 9 mnth 06 as 355 when it was 298. If we think they still make 100M per Q, the FY will be ~510. If they make 200M per Q from this point forward, FY will be closer to 610
AG Leventis is a hot buy for me then. The forward PE is now less than 11.5 if they can hit 610M. windywendy's analysis now makes more sense to me. I'm no longer standing in this bus. I am taking a seat beside the driver |
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Temmie10 (m)
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@ EASIMONI, TEMMIE10, gtb PAT last year was 13bn, and so far they have grown 55%. thats already 20bn, i expect them tov hitbmore and get about 21bn, thats chow i got my forward pe of 18.7
i see where you're comin from, its a bit tricky but it could well be worth it, Sold my gtb a few months back at 33, that was part of the funds that i channelled to wema, one of the best investment decisions i made this year. |
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Rob-roy
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I'm hearing all this positive news about UBA and Zenith and co. Is First Bank not aggressive enough to grow or is the "elephant" too big to pursue that mouse inside it's nest? The bank's website seems outdated, no Diaspora offerings, poor to non existent advertising for new customers etc. I know that they are making money servicing large debts and extending loans but the real money is in the 140 million customers, not the two or ten huge loans. Have they concluded talks with ETI or is that still in the works?
Wanajo, I know you are a staunch FBN party man, what makes you believe in them, why are they the largest part of yur portfoio?
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crazyT (m)
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Your broker will compete with my broker! My broker has just join the race too, lets see who the winner will be by Thursday. |
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AGLeventisAnalysis.xls (30.5 KB - downloaded )
