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ckenneths (m)
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@Pumping, I had to migrate here with you guys, its good to have dual citizenship  |
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yodiyokun (f)
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I suspected Seun was going to lift the ban when I saw yesterday he has added " report to moderator" link.
Thats a good way to make everyone involved in keeping the content of this forum sane.
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ckenneths (m)
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@NBA, Roughcut, thanks guys, I actually started here, then had to stay at the other side for long. Much respects to the much respected gurus here. Your incisive analysis cannot pass unnoticed, I will even suggest Yar Adua includes your names in the next MON, OFR, GCFR, ETC ETC awards.
You people are doing too much to lift the ignorance and poverty off our people.
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easimoni (m)
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Pumping, these links don't seem to work for me o! How bout you use megaupload to shaare these files? Seems to work for all of us. Pretty please  |
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yodiyokun (f)
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Pumping, these links don't seem to work for me o! How bout you use megaupload to shaare these files? Seems to work for all of us. Pretty please So you bought zillions of Access - Their share allotment is terribly ridiculous. I am not buying more than 5k units in any PO chikena. I am not interested in returned money wetin na! |
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ckenneths (m)
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I am expecting to see some rise in the shares of IBTC, this is because the changes that will occur in their business operations as a result of their synergy with Stanbic is expected to be in the positive. However it is not all up hill as it may go down a bit before the climb.
Also taking their last result as a basis for analysis, and putting their 18.5 b shares into consideration, the p/e will be around 50 something, looks high to me.
What do the gurus here think before I go ahead and load this one?
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pumping777 (m)
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Pumping, these links don't seem to work for me o! How bout you use megaupload to shaare these files? Seems to work for all of us. Pretty please I have megauploaded the Access Bank allotment here, http://www.megaupload.com/?d=2DY0H1ZB |
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pumping777 (m)
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So you bought zillions of Access - Their share allotment is terribly ridiculous. I am not buying more than 5k units in any PO chikena. I am not interested in returned money wetin na! Good idea. I consider the POs side betting and just buy what I call my own "rights". Why try for 100K units of Zenith if you're are not going via preferential allotment  |
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ckenneths (m)
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Public offers have been a no go for me since this year, I had shunned all of them, and I now see I am correct to do so. Though there are some very good ones, the thing that annoys me most is the delay; I can get better deals from the secondary market.
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yodiyokun (f)
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We already know the deep pocketed ones amongst us - easimoni, pumping, wanaj0, roughcut et al |
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wanaj0
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Good idea. I consider the POs side betting and just buy what I call my own "rights". Why try for 100K units of Zenith if you're are not going via preferential allotment Even preferential subscribers are not guaranteed anymore. From the Access Bank allottment, they were a candidate for takeover!!!!!!! No PO's for me. But those Stanbic people are stupid. Why wait for PO when you can negotiate with the board. Why use PO to bid for over 2.6B shares of Access. Na hostile takeover be that. |
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wanaj0
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So simple, set up a SPV to acquire the shares. That is the way to go. Just get your US$ ready since this is not a Naira offer Was to start on the 7th of December but no news since then. |
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pumping777 (m)
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No PO's for me.
Except for MTN |
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yodiyokun (f)
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But those Stanbic people are stupid. Why wait for PO when you can negotiate with the board. Why use PO to bid for over 2.6B shares of Access. Na hostile takeover be that.
Can you imagine? It seems round three of consolidation will commence next year ooo!!. Chei they just want to usurp those guys while they were napping? There is an article in Business week about UBN buying seriously into Afribank Offer as well - I wonder what that means? Now that PO's are always oversubscribed, take over is not possible - at least not through PO |
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wanaj0
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Can you imagine? It seems round three of consolidation will commence next year ooo!!. Chei they just want to usurp those guys while they were napping?
There is an article in Business week about UBN buying seriously into Afribank Offer as well - I wonder what that means?
Now that PO's are always oversubscribed, take over is not possible - at least not through PO
That was junk journalism. The part referred to was the portion that Union Bank is underwriting. Consolidation is on. Expect between 10 to 15 banks at the end of the day. Except for MTN MTN na PP not PO |
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esco399 (m)
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Hostile take overs of banks are now even more plausible than before due to this new law postponing CBN verification to post allotment. We may see more attempts of these, and series of law suits etc, SEC & CBN may have a big task ahead of them.
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ckenneths (m)
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The only thing I noticed from reading that business day news is that South Africans are trying to form a cartel here, watch it, they are selling part of MTN, an SA company, through another SA bank IBTC, (owned by Stanbic) and advertising it through an SA affiliated newspaper, business day. Is it healthy for our business environment, who can tell? And to think our guys are begging to get there and slave for them, while they raid the companies here for wealth?
Watch the links.
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RoughCut (m)
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Even preferential subscribers are not guaranteed anymore.
From the Access Bank allottment, they were a candidate for takeover!!!!!!!
No PO's for me.
But those Stanbic people are stupid. Why wait for PO when you can negotiate with the board. Why use PO to bid for over 2.6B shares of Access. Na hostile takeover be that.
54% of the shares on offer at the time they did the PO and not 54% of the bank that doesnt look like a takeover bid to me |
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esco399 (m)
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54% of the shares on offer at the time they did the PO and not 54% of the bank that doesnt look like a takeover bid to me
True, but you forget to note that a large enough percentage can also be mopped up on the floor in addition to the PO (and there's no one to govern who buys what from the floor), could be done directly or indirectly, buying into intitutions, other companies that own large enough percentages of the shares |
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pumping777 (m)
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The only thing I noticed from reading that business day news is that South Africans are trying to form a cartel here, watch it, they are selling part of MTN, an SA company, through another SA bank IBTC, (owned by Stanbic) and advertising it through an SA affiliated newspaper, business day. Is it healthy for our business environment, who can tell? And to think our guys are begging to get there and slave for them, while they raid the companies here for wealth?
Watch the links.
I will not see it this way. We have to allow healthy competition otherwise smaller African companies will also shut their doors on us. Nigeria has benefitted. If your market is healthy you should not shut out foreigners. |
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Geees
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Welcome Ckenneths,
I believe your in the right place, I can assure you of getting hooked and forgetting SMN.
Thanks for your insights too.
Warm regards to all who are back, this early.
Afribank & UBN, As Wanaj0 says it junk journalism but for a purpose, Just concerned why UBN wants to buy another 'slow' coy Afribank, I see them as bereaucratic,
Welcome folks once again
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RoughCut (m)
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True, but you forget to note that a large enough percentage can also be mopped up on the floor in addition to the PO (and there's no one to govern who buys what from the floor), could be done directly or indirectly, buying into intitutions, other companies that own large enough percentages of the shares
There were 4.7B shares on offer and plus the over-subscription of 160% they are absorbing and GDR an additional 8.5B shares of ACCESS will be listed of which stanbic have been allotted 1.9B so with outstanding shares of ~6.5B that makes a total of ~15B that will be listed so stanbic will be owning about 13% of ACCESS they are nowhere near acquring controlling shares in the bank. By the time FCMB PO is completed 35% of the bank will be owned by off-shore institutional investors so the point i'm making is there's no single entity that will be allowed to own controlling shares in these banks even if the banks belong in the second division league Third-division league banks will definitely be swallowed up in the next two years! |
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texas543 (m)
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Globacom league |
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esco399 (m)
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There were 4.7B shares on offer and plus the over-subscription of 160% they are absorbing and GDR an additional 8.5B shares of ACCESS will be listed of which stanbic have been allotted 1.9B so with outstanding shares of ~6.5B that makes a total of ~15B that will be listed so stanbic will be owning about 13% of ACCESS they are nowhere near acquring controlling shares in the bank.
By the time FCMB PO is completed 35% of the bank will be owned by off-shore institutional investors so the point i'm making is there's no single entity that will be allowed to own controlling shares in these banks even if the banks belong in the second division league
Third-division league banks will definitely be swallowed up in the next two years!
Roughcut - I agree with you my man, but that may only be step 1 (they may not be through yet), and also those percentages you mentioned are dangerous enough, especially if the close 2nd only holds 2% or much less, these are megacorps, 1% is huge, when shareholder voting on issues comes around, could sway things in their favour a little (1 party owning 13% or 35%, and over a million sharing the remaining) by the way, i don't post much, but wanted to give Kudos to all the "gurus" & regular contributors for their continued selflessness, you know yourselves , wanajo, pumping, easimoni, fatherof2, roughcut, emmaachile, aylala, shigidi, windywendy, yodiyokun & others (sorry I can't remember/type all names, but you know urselves) ** aahh and how could I forget my man, Temmie10 , I think our styles have a few similarities, |
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yodiyokun (f)
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Imagine what having offshore institutional investors on board will do to corporate goverance. It will definitely improve. No closed economy ever does well.
More not less!!
On the off side - No be all these westerners run enron down? - thats cause they were caught with their hands in the cookie jar. Any one following Conrad Black - today is his sentencing. Any one following Warren buffet and the AIG saga? What of that yeye German they want to extradite from Canada - claiming he bribed the ex-Prime Minister. The PM did not deny but said the code of conduct at that time was not against it and he got the bribe after he steppe down as PM. I guess you must have heard of Siemens and their fine from the German govt - they will still be fined in US thanks to Sarbanes Oxley. What am I saying- Don't count 100% on Corporate Governance, It will definitely be better because there are laws like US foreign Corrupt practices act that govern what this institutional Investors do in corrupt countries such as ours. The good part is - if they are caught peren - na jailhouse be that or suicide Unlike our people  they will still be flaunting it. But leave story ---- We need their money Did you read about restrictions on who can invest in MTN--- how will that work? No be only politicians get that kind of money they are looking for |
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