Starting 'Acta Non Verba' an Investment Club

 @Frank ,
    really sad that club members failed to show up. Am a member myself but could not attend because am based in Spain. I expect you to treat this as a hold up on the way to realizing the clubs goal. I will be in Naija in June ,so we can hook up . Am definitely committed to this project .Will call you to see how i can contribute to move this forward .Obviously some are not ready for the the idea , i mean in WORDS AND DEEDS.

     @ Ijogbon,
        i noticed you will be in Naija next month, so will i .You can send me your mailing address so we can have some prelim contact. Cheers !

I was quite impressed at the fact that you even called to talk to me about it when people in my backyard here in Lagos did not even bat an eyelid.

what's your email add.  Please let us not lose sight of the fact the offer is for 0.25% of the amount you buy and it comes when First Bank pays the receiving agents their money. I dont want to tell stories oh

I think you guys might be on to something. Remember that Berskshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet's Company) is essentially an investment club. He takes peoples money and invests it to deliver above-average returns.

My problem with investment clubs is that as they grow in size, they tend to take on less risk and they start to deliver market-like returns; case in point IBTC's Equity Fund. As more people join, you'll start to run out of high-growth stocks to buy (due to the small size of the Nigerian Market) and the efficient market theory will set in.

I'd suggest you start off as an investment advisory service and ask for a "subscription" for advice and analysis that would almost guarantee high yields. Tell people what stocks you bought, when and why and what your returns have been. As you build trust and a reputation, it might be reasonable to leverage that reputation to start a trust (with a bank loan?) and aim for naija-Warren.

I do my own analyses and I am a Buffet fan. By exploiting inefficneicies in the naija market, I have seen my portfolio grow at over 100% p.a. since 04. I'd be happy to provide my opinion if you ever get something started. My current portfolio is 7% AP, 55% Wema, 13% SKYE Bank, 25% WAPCO. I'd be happy to explain my reason for buying each stock. That's the type of advice I'm looking out for.

Good luck.

@easimoni
You are quite on point there. If you read the post from the start you will have noticed that the point was to make a proactive environment for people to actualise their dreams. Mr admin Seun  changed the name to what it is now.

I would really appreciate any analysis that you will be glad to share. Lets discuss it here on the thread. That was my initial aim but added to the fact that i wanted people to actually invest in whatever stocks we discussed here.

@ganjaih
Thats they whole point of my trying to hook up with frankiriri when I go to Naij. Good looking out.

 @ iJOGBON
 got your mail. Will call you tomorrow.We will take it from there.

 @ Easimoni,
        good posts !

Ppl the idea? Keep it alive. See the link below -

http://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-55990.0.html

Let us focus our efforts.

'focusing the benign and ordinary light adequately you can cut thru steel'

Hey people this is a bold one, and I'm in! I'd be willing to buy #100,000 worth as well. I'm currently with FBN here in Nigeria. What plans do you have laid down, logistics and so forth? What type of group are we seeking to establish? I may not be able to bring my presence "physically" as I'm in North-central Nigeria, but I'm in the industry. I'm following this thread as closely as I can, let me know how I can help.

@ easimoni,

I have read through all your postings and I must confess that I appreciate your investment philosophy. However looking at your stock portfolio it appears  to be quite conservative. 

1. Do you still think it  likely that you can make 100 % with that portfollio given the bearish climate and the numerous alternative offers and pending offers in the market?

2. Considering your opinion that a  likely 40% appreciation of Zenith is low, please let's have a list of stocks that you think can do better than 40% between now and Dec 07.

3. By the way I am impressed by your deep and vast knowledge even in other subjects as is reflected in the quality of your contributions on varied topics in other threads. Can we know in which other investing forums/fora that  you are a contributor?

 

@ Sharestalk,
thanks for the compliments. Allow me to explain my rationale behind my stock picks. Please note the post you referred to is more than a week old and prices have moved since then.

1. AP (was 65.85 last Monday, now 69.14)
AP's 9 month to Sept 2006 result showed a profit-after-tax (PAT) of N2.7B. If you project that to a full year result of N3.6B and divide by the number of shares (745M), you get an earnings-per-share (EPS) of N4.83. In this current environment (I don't think it's bearish yet), a PE of 20 is reasonable. AP should have a fair market value of ~N100. Don't know when the Full Year results will be announced or if my projections will prove accurate, but remember that they will also soon publish the 3 months to March 2007 results which should give an added boost. If nothing else, Otedola paid NNPC N80 per share. Stock came off suspension yesterday and did an easy 5%. My year-end expectation is ~N120.

2. Wema (was 7.86, now 8.55)
Similar analysis: 3 mos to June 2006 PAT  = N1.7B. Projects to full year of N6.8B. However, the MD said in church (yes, it was on the web) that they passed N5B in PAT. If we use N5B as the full year, 10.19 B shares will yield an EPS of 50K. Again if a PE of 20 is fair, WEMA is worth at least N10. Rumours have them boosting the price prior to a public offer later in the year. I have set my exit point at N12

3. SKye Bank (was 7.91, now 10.06)
This was a hunch. If you read my previous posts, I shared an excel file with my SKYE bank analysis that had some assumptions (basically, I said the profit margin would improve sharply and drag up the profits). The price movement has since borne out my analysis and I think N13-14 is a fair price by year-end. I plan on exiting very soon!

4. WAPCO (was 67.5, now 70)
This was a short term-play based on my expectation of a solid 3 month result (already happened). I might hold to see what happens if and when cement importation is banned in December. Market psychology may drive cement co. prices through the roof just like in late 03 when the so-called deregulation drove oil co. prices into the stratosphere.


My picks going forward:
I plan on re-balancing my portfolio v. soon and here are some stocks (other than the ones I own or that have just done/doing public offers) that I may consider.

1. GTB: may soon release 3 mos results, great growth rate but I only see N40 by year-end. Rumours of a public offer, that may drive prices close to 50.

2. Oando; PE of 14 is one of the lowest among the "blue-chips" (if Oando can be called a blue-chip). I see an easy 60-70% climb by year end. 100% is v possible.

3. Dangote: only if the price falls below N40.

4. Flour Mills: they have a tendency (for the last 5 years) of delivering v. strong 4Q results. Said results are due any day now and could drive this share to N90. Only a v.v. short-term play.

5. C & I leasing :  great results but I generally stay away from small companies.

Finally, stay away from JAPAUL, Crusader Ins, Cornerstone ins, Transcorp, and the Access Bank PO!

Enjoy.

@Bigboylary
Hey, Big.
I didnt mean for us to adopt franks' arrangement.
I sent out that post suggesting contacting frankiriri for the people in Naij.

I know we might run into some administrative glitches that is why I am recommending looking at what Frank has done already.
When ppl come together to put their money in some venture, more often than not it is a good idea to have some sort of framework guiding actions. We need bank accounts, stockbrokers accounts etc.
I am sure that stockbroking firms in Naij will have some arrangement to encourage the sort of thing we are trying to do but no stockbroker has volunteered info here yet. I am in London so there is not much I can do,,,,,,,,wait a minute how about calling the stockbrokers directly from here and finding out _{talking to myself}.
I think I'll do just that. I'll do it tomorrow and let the house know what they say.

@Bigboylary
I will call you tomorrow so we can arrange a meet for anyone who is interested in London. I just want to be able to see everyone who sends an email.

@ all
my hotmail address is inactive. You can reach me at frankiriri@yahoo.com.

As per the structure for the club, issues that will have to be addressed.
Registration  of the business name- the best form for this will be an incorporated body as only an incorporated body can buy shares in Nigeria.
Opening of bank accounts  and transfer of funds to Naija
As I said before I am open to discussions on how we can synergise. Nothing stops us from having a common administrative framework but different ground operations. That is we practice selective decentralisation.

@Fran, ,

How long does it take to register and be issue a trading name permit?

@Ijogbon

We have no more time left my Pal we have to move very fast and make a mark more are on there way to the market or what do u think,we have no time left, u did not call me if u can flash me i will call u back, 

HAVE WE AGGREE ON #100,000:00,#150,000:00 AND #200,000:00 OR WAT WE HAVE NO TIME LEFT HAS SOME PEOPLE GET SHOW INTEREST ABEG LET MOVE TIME WAIT FOR NOBODY,