Ngwakwe:


I am counting the number of bastards from Southwest as the results are collated.

Don't forget the percentage of bastards from the region is becoming phenomenon, if we go by Ibadan declaration that any Yoruba who votes GEJ is a bastard.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .the same way 'born troway' are showing their numbers up north . . . . . . . . . . . . . .association of bastards and born troways . . . . . . . .formidable force. . . .

EBERE HAS BEEN SCAMMED

torkaka:


. . . . . . . . . . . . .the same way 'born troway' are showing their numbers up north . . . . . . . . . . . . . .association of bastards and born troways . . . . . . . .formidable force. . . .

EBERE HAS BEEN SCAMMED

olapluto:

Well, lets say 30% of Oyo state are Igbos. In Ekiti, 60%, Ogun, 35%, Lagos, 40%. Sounds about right to me.
Shame never catch you to hide your head ba!

Ngwakwe:


Stop this joke

Then Ondo 47% are what?

You mean Yorubas are super minority in Southern. NIGERIA

olapluto:

The joke is on you bro. When will you congratulate GMB? I expect you to uphold your dignity and start congratulating him from now.

sureguy02:
Nobody mumu reach barcanista walahi!!

barcanista:
The truth is that the APC sympathisers on social media are quick to assume and insinuate that the SW is a lockdown for APC and Buhari. The truth is that Goodluck Jonathan will triumph in the region. I don't even know how the APC intend to do it or on what basis they based their argument. They have lost ground in Ogun State, Oyo State, Ekiti State and are not in contention in Ondo State. In Lagos State, they are facing a United PDP, aggrived APC members and of course there is the OPC influence. I am not even talking about other influential non Yoruba groups

Sooroptimist:
Even Tomafo.ol aka Tomakint said APC could never win Ondo State

Omo abipabe how far nah

ba7man:
Don't you feel stup1d now.........Running your mouth on issues you know nothing about.

mandarin:
1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520
2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571
3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566
4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967
5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380
6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372
7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800
8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777
9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929
10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627
11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392
12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734
13 EKITI 732,021 511,790
14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606
15 FCT 881,472 569,109
16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635
17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449
18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320
19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519
20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039
21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096
22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630
23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013
24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996
25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647
26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053
27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058
28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647
29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844
30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051
31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967
32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585
33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837
34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004
35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889
36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401
37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452
Total 68,833,476 55,904,272

I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015.
In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities:
Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states.

First : States according to the strength of each candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast.

JONATHAN
1. ABIA-1, 177,520
2. ENUGU-1,223,606
3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967
4. EBONYI - 848,392
5. IMO -1,707,449
6. RIVERS - 2,127,837
7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929
8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566
9. BAYELSA-546,372
10. DELTA- 1,921627
11. BENUE- 1,607,800
12. 1,508,585
TOTAL - 16,879,650

BUHARI
1. SOKOTO-1,527,004
2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452
3. KEBBI - 1,372,630
4. KATSINA- 2,620,096
5. NIGER- 1,682,058
6. KADUNA- 3,174,519
7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320
8. YOBE - 824,401
9. BORNO - 1,407,777
10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571
11. BAUCHI-1,778,380
12. GOMBE - 1,069,635
13. NASARAWA-1,048,053
14. KANO- 4,112,039
15. KWARA - 884,996
TOTAL -26,074,931

SOME SOUTHWEST STATES
1. LAGOS - 3,767,647
2. OGUN - 904,647
3. OSUN - 1,030,051
4. OYO- 1,639,967
TOTAL - 7,342,312

SWING STATES
1. EDO -1,218,734
2. EKITI - 511,790
3. ONDO - 1,110,844
4. TARABA - 1,270,889
5. FCT - 569,109
6. KOGI - 926,013
TOTAL - 5,607,379

I have grouped these states according to the strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe me both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities.
1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above:

JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 23,354,495.5
BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 32,549,776.5
VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly

2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 :

JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191, 685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5
= 27,451,042.05
BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5
= 28,453,240.45
BUHARI WINS by slim margin

3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states :
JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6
= 24,670,045.65
BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35

A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give
1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast
2. Jonathan strong areas returning between 75-90% votes cast
3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast
4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states 50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba)

Low registration and PVC collection is not good for GEJ as pattern revealed Northerners can always endure long hours to vote unlike in the south where many wont do such thing.
Another factor is Lagos. THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT OVER A MILLION PEOPLE MAY NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS
1. Some of registered voter actually registered close to their places of work and this affect a huge population of those that dwell in the outskirt towns of Ogun state
2. This is similarly going to affect alot of Igbo voters that registered close to their shops if they live far away means they wont be able to also vote.
3. Many Lagosians may not just vote anticipating violence or just indifference, sitting at home and watching television, this is where those who mobilized for registration in 2011 will likely have more votes.
Let me stop and read comments

Gbawe2:


You are one of the few posters here I like and respect. This is the only reason I am even responding. I have absolutely no interest in contributing my opinion on any thread started by this OP. Doing so is like a father with young children having to 'hang out' with a hardened and unrepentant paedophile. The OP, as you know now, is a totally disgusting human being any decent and morally upright person , whether APC or PDP, will avoid.

Suffice to say, as is the case with unprincipled mercenaries like FFK, OP is delusional attempting to speak for the SW. I can tell you all that majority of average Yorubas do not have a single reason to vote for GEJ. Not one and they are determined to resist and reject him. People can believe me if they want or not but I can authoritatively state here that it is the overwhelming defeat GEJ was facing in the SW that necessitated the much-condemned election postponement. They wanted to try and use the 7 extra weeks to buy every opinion leader in the SW to help them deliver a GEJ win. It is not working so far and GEJ is on a 'long thing'. "Maga don come" things. Anyone giving credibility to the analysis of the hungry OP is simply naive.

OP is a discredited character who works on 'guestimates' while trying to be the insider he will never be. He is the same character who started panicking here about Buhari losing the APC primaries because info was put in the public domain, by PDP desperados, that Atiku had successfully out-bribed all others and was on course to defeat Buhari. Him and others will confess I told them it was all hogwash. I was privy to information that made me realise Buhari would win overwhelmingly because the SW 'big boys' were working for him and would not entertain any derailment of their 'mission'. I told them this but many did not believe me. Yet we all know what happened. It is the same with the upcoming election never mind the delusions of GEJ and his crew.

Similarly, as I predicted the outcome of the APC presidential Primaries and Lagos guber primaries, I am saying here and now that GEJ will not win in the SW if elections are free and fair. On the contrary, the people of the region will disgrace him and the PDP. I can't speak about some things publicly but I will tell you that the PDP, because it is a Party of desperate men and women scared about their future, is operating on 'dutch courage' and pretence bravado. The underground truth is that the APC is not talking much but the Party is fully ready, on all fronts, to counter and overcome the PDP. Who is Gani Adams , Fasehun, FFK, Obanikoro et al? Is it because the Yoruba heavyweight are silent that makes the 'omo ales' think they now run the show? Those who matter in Yoruba land know what they have to do. I will leave it at that. The wise and experienced heads here should ask themselves why Lagos did not fall into PDP hands even under the uber-bully OBJ was. Therein lies the clue to the omerta-style code that will play out to leave the PDP stunned. Imagine silly TANdroid children who are not from the SW pinning their hopes on loquacious, turncoat and desperate opportunists like Fayose, Obanikoro, FFK, Adams et al when the real self-made leaders of the region, that the people respect and obey , have already passed on the message about what must happen. I dey laff. As they say " e go do dem like film".

ba7man:
Don't you feel stup1d now.........Running your mouth on issues you know nothing about.

Gbawe:


Did they listen when those of us who know our people, and how they think, told them not to disrespectful do that? I.e run their mouth on issues they know nothing about?

ba7man:
He'll need all the courage he can get to show his face around here again.

naijababe:



Una go finish this guy patapata. I hope the likes of tomakint, SeverusSnape and Firefire will be available to hold his hands/head!

LRNZH:
Barcanistan is an uncultured analyst who feels intellectually endowed to run his keyboard typing irrelevant postulations.

Nairaland person the year 2014 is the worst analyst in 2015.

Until GMB is announced, this is all I have for him and his cohorts.

maestroferddi:
Just like Doyin Okupe said in one media chat, time-honoured trends invariably play out in politics.

There are pundits and analysts who have been in this game for so long. We don't bandy words with the vociferous crowd but rely on the fact that the future/events always vindicate the objective.

This piece mirrors an earlier expose' I did on the likely outcome of the election in the South West. As is expected, I was barracked and called names.

SeverusSnape:
That's what I've been saying, How can one say "Yorubas won't vote Jonathan", That's a myopic statement.
This is what I've been telling Rilwayne001, But he's there in Dreamland. He thinks all Yorubas are Tinubu slave...
A masterpiece from barcanista, More grease to your elbows.

egift:
Here is my take:
- Buhari will have the majority votes from the SW.
- Both the APC and PDP will have at least the required 25% from each state in the SW, unlike what happened in 2011.
- In Governorship, APC will retain Lagos and Ogun. Ekiti and Osun is not in contention. Oyo and Ondo too close to call.

In summary, Buhari is the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.