Why do uninformed online wranglers argue about what they have no clue about?

Another quack calculation...... Misinforming innocent Nigerians

So nothing for the unemployed.

sarahatuba:
Nice write up ....pdp supporters are just pessimists,they can never see anything good in GMB....cos they know he'll outperform GEJ ..

Beauty, you're not being fair. No GEJ supporter HATES GMB. Not even barcanista!

Deeply within us, we pray GMB outperforms GEJ!

We just want to make it clear that certain promises will only end up as PROMISES!

Let him do 50% of what he promised, i will be happy

The only mandate a Buhari candidacy hopes to fullfil is with JP Morgan via the IMF.


The APc will sell us into 40yrs debt

https://www.nairaland.com/2251899/buhari-set-cancel-strategic-chinese

See the link above

dis political forum mods(lalastica abi wetin ) need some upgrade
how many times do u have these articles and rejoinders even in real practical journalism?

Obiageli's epic response to BAstardnista was enuf to seal this back and forth needless debates.
putting up his nonsense part 2 reeks of arrogance and its self seeking.
waiting to see the mods push his part 3 to FP

crownprince102:
This is a reply to you, Barcanista on how possible it is for GMB to accomplish his social programs. I stand with the fact that it is very possible and realistic.


NOTE: I 'm not saying that GMB will fulfil the promise but I 'm only acclaiming the fact that it is very possible to be accomplished.

Nice one bro,possible is welcome not that doom sayers that want buhari to fail by all cost,if all the money looted can be account for I see no reasons why this cannot be possible,am not surprise on barcanista assessment all he can see is failure,u won't blame him he's so used to failure and the mind set that impossibility is nothing cool,your follower just increased

Good

CHANGE ! 8

dearpreye:


Beauty, you're not being fair. No GEJ supporter HATES GMB. Not even barcanista!

Deeply within us, we pray GMB outperforms GEJ!

We just want to make it clear that certain promises will only end up as PROMISES!

Hey hun
when i made that comment i was tlking abt the ones who always sound bitter nd hateful.....nt all pdp supporters but MOST ive seen on here scare me with their comments (sure you know what im tlking abt )
hmmm like making N1=$1 that he never even said?

crownprince102:
This is a reply to you, Barcanista on how possible it is for GMB to accomplish his social programs. I stand with the fact that it is very possible and realistic.


I must firstly create awareness to you and the readers on the misconceptions in your writing and what they ought to be.


1. Buhari to pay 25m unemployed N5000/month:
Buhari promised to pay N5000 to 25m poor families or most vulnerable citizens not unemployed youth, and a poor Nigerian is entitle to this stipend if he meet certain clauses. An excerpt from Prof. Yemi Osinbajo explanation before general election stated thus;

“We will give N5, 000 to the poorest 25 million over a phased period, if their children are enrolled in school and participate in immunization.
“So we are actually doing two things; we are giving stipends to the very poorest and ensuring that in order to earn that stipend they certify two conditions”

This clearly state that a man that will be entitle to this must be a married man with kids and must meet those clauses.

* Buhari didn't promise to pay N5000 to 25m poor families at a time. In PYO's explanation on this before the election, he stressed that:

“We are looking at phasing it over a period because it will cost about N1.35 trillion to do so if we do all 25 million at once.
He maintained that, if elected,the programme will be done in batches of 5 million people a year, adding that “depending on resources we can even do more”.

This clearly explain that the schedule is for 5 million people a year and not 25 million as you earlier stated. This state categorically that the N1.5 trillion will be spent on this project for 5 years and not for a year as you stated in your analysis. Only N300b is needed for this yearly.


2. Buhari to Provide daily meal for Primary school pupil:
Thanks for bringing in the case of Osun state into this point, it will make it clearer. On this point, you came up with a total sum of N373 billion per annum. We all saw the recent statistics of revenue allocated to each state by FG, I saw it here on Nairaland, Osun is the lowest earning state and I don't think Osun's IGR is up to 30% of the allocation it get from FG. Probably why the state owe workers some months salary. It depend solely on FG allocation and their has been a cut in the allocation of each state since last year due to the fall in oil price. Osun could still afford feeding Primary 1 to 4 student despite this circumstances.


The case is simple, to save more revenue. The federal goverment could collaborate with states government in order to achieve this goal. The cost may be shared between both tiers of government in a case of 60:40 or 70:30.
If you remain adamant it should be done alone by FG, no problem, further analysis will clear the air.

***********************************
Going into your analysis we have a deficit of aproximately N1.9 trillion or we have a sum of N1.9 trillion to raise. With this analysis, it will clearly show that's a pathetic fallacy. As said earlier, the payment of the stipend is going to be done in batches, 5 million people per year. The cost of paying 5 million people this sum will equals:

N1.5 trillion / 5 years
= N300 billion a year

Also, N373 billion is needed for feeding primary school pupils a year. This eventually equals to:

N300b + N373b = N673b

This is approximately N700 billion naira per annum contrary to N1.87 trillion you stated in your analysis.

Your analysis was also base solely on the revenue generated from oil, their was no consideration for other sectors and also note that our budget is prepared with all eyes all oil revenue.

The incoming administration has promised to diversify the economy. GMB claims he will generate incomes from other sectors such as mining, agriculture, etc.


As Obiagelli stated, Nigeria annual income on oil this year if oil is sold at $60 per barrel through out the year will be N5.1 trillion naira (after 40% of the income has been transferred to the oil companies) with 2m barrels sold daily though we actually produced and sells officially 2.5m barrels daily (though some corners rumoured it to be 4 millions barrels).

N5.1tri - N4.6b = N500 billion.
We will have an excess of more than the needed N700 billion if the exact 2.5m barrel daily and possibilities of increase in oil price.


As Obiagelli stated on her thread, FIRS generates N4.6 trillion in 2014. If the same amount is generated every year, we will have:

N4.6tri - N700b = N3.9 trillion
That is an excess of approximately N4 trillion every year if the revenue remains stagnant in the coming years and their is a high probability of it growing.


Apart from this 2 ways I stated, we could also get the N700b from mining, agriculture, etc.


With this I stressed it possible for this social program to be accomplished by GMB's administration.


NOTE: I 'm not saying that GMB will fulfil the promise but I 'm only acclaiming the fact that it is very possible to be accomplished.

Your analysis is kinda flawed..I don't want to dwell on d figures you posited cos most of them are in the futuristic tense..Even if the figures ure bandying are achievable,u think a reasonable goverment will spend 25 percent of ALL of its revenue on some "social Program" when there are MORE pressing needs to be met..Infrastructure development,Power et all..It does not make any sense..

crownprince102:

Hypocrisy at it peak.


GEJ promised to deliver uninterrupted power supply in 2 years in office. No one doubted him. Where is the MegaWatt today?


Why is this thread not of front page yet?
Seun
Ishilove
Lalasticlala
Maclatunji

Ha baba twale... Your write up make sense.
Abeg how many years Sai Buhari the Messiah promise to take deliver constant power? Because I swear me nor fit wait ooo...

crownprince102:

As Obiagelli stated, Nigeria annual income on oil this year if oil is sold at $60 per barrel through out the year will be N5.1 trillion naira (after 40% of the income has been transferred to the oil companies) with 2m barrels sold daily though we actually produced and sells officially 2.5m barrels daily (though some corners rumoured it to be 4 millions barrels).

N5.1tri - N4.6b = N500 billion.
We will have an excess of more than the needed N700 billion if the exact 2.5m barrel daily and possibilities of increase in oil price.


As Obiagelli stated on her thread, FIRS generates N4.6 trillion in 2014. If the same amount is generated every year, we will have:

N4.6tri - N700b = N3.9 trillion
That is an excess of approximately N4 trillion every year if the revenue remains stagnant in the coming years and their is a high probability of it growing.


Apart from this 2 ways I stated, we could also get the N700b from mining, agriculture, etc.


With this I stressed it possible for this social program to be accomplished by GMB's administration.


NOTE: I 'm not saying that GMB will fulfil the promise but I 'm only acclaiming the fact that it is very possible to be accomplished.

The problem with your analysis...

1. Nigeria FG share in 2014 was N3,3trn
I explained this here https://www.nairaland.com/2267102/buhari-social-program-part-ii

Understanding FIRS 2014 Report:
FIRS announced that the sum of N4.69trn was generated in 2014. The report indicated that N2.45 trillion, representing 52.96 per cent, was collected from petroleum profit tax while N2.24 trillion, representing 47.04 per cent, was collected from non-oil taxes during the period.
Analysis
This sum(N4.69trn) is not independent of the published N8.785trn that Nigeria was said to earn between Jan 2014 and January 2014. It is a part and parcel of the total revenue.

How Much Did FG Get In 2014?
There is a consolidated Sharing formula between FG, States, LGs and Oil Producin States(13%) after operational and other associated cost has been deducted.
FG Earnings In 2014
1st Qtr: N912 billion
2nd Qtr: N864.2 billion
3rd Qtr: N924.68 billon
4th Qtr: N617.186 billion
Total 2014= N3.318trn

2014 Budget: N4.6trn
FG Projected Earning for 2014= N3.73tr
Real Earning = N3.318trn

We even ran on deficit in 2014.

2. Your use of "could" in generation of fund shows that you aren't emperical.

3. Obiagelli spoke out of ignorance. Using her ignorance shows you have no clue.



I even took my time to analyse the stuff if it is to move in batches

Analysing The Argument of The Pro-Buharis
Some Pro-Buharis claim that the project will be done in phase of 5m people per year. However, the problem of "How to identify these 5m beneficiaries" and what will be the for selection?
Anyway, that is for another day. Let's go by their argument...
Unemployment benefit: 5m * N5000 = N300 billion.

*The N300b is for the payment benefit alone*. Add that to logistics, overhead and operational cost that the program will incur (approx 50% ie N150billion) annually.

Total: N300b + N150b = N450b

Feeding for 40m Public School Children = N373 billion.

Subtotal: N823 billion.

Where Will Buhari Source For the estimated N823 billion?

- Remove Subsidy? Total package for petrol and kerosene subsidies plus SURE-P fund = N166.5b. That is clearly not up to 30%.

- Invest All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? This will be a very silly move though. But adding Capital Expenditure and Subsidy will total N866.9 billion. Just a little above the projected N823billion.
Going this route means there will be no project for road, no infrastructure and other capital projects. In fact, it is synonymous to eating the present away.

- Will He Borrow? Borrowing to fund Social Welfare program is synonymous to eating away the future. That means indebting our future and a panacea to economic collapse likened to what happened to Greece if not worse. It also means increasing our already projected deficit of N1.29 trillion

Finally, I have analysed carefully how it practically look impossible to get the funds. You shouldn't be using Obiagelli's "Revenue" when there is REAL figure to work with. Note that FG Revenue is inclusive of TAX from EVERY SOURCE Export Earnings


cc: Dearpreye firefire anonimi mogidi altwireless

From the words and explanations of Prof Osinbajo, the implementation of the the welfare programme would be in batches.

Question: If Buhari doesn't succeed in this so called Social Benefits plan does that mean he has 'failed' ? Because last time i checked that's not the only thing on his agenda and its certainly not the most important issue for Nigerians.

Im always amused at how you people spend so much of your time writing stuff that will be FORGOTTEN on this forum.


BTW if whatever this Barcanista guy is saying actually bothers you then just take a look at his threads history and you'll feel so much better seeing how he was bashing GEJ and defending Buhari with all he's got. HELL you can even use some of the stuff he wrote to debunk his nonsense.

crownprince102:
This is a reply to you, Barcanista on how possible it is for GMB to accomplish his social programs. I stand with the fact that it is very possible and realistic.


I must firstly create awareness to you and the readers on the misconceptions in your writing and what they ought to be.


1. Buhari to pay 25m unemployed N5000/month:
Buhari promised to pay N5000 to 25m poor families or most vulnerable citizens not unemployed youth, and a poor Nigerian is entitle to this stipend if he meet certain clauses. An excerpt from Prof. Yemi Osinbajo explanation before general election stated thus;

“We will give N5, 000 to the poorest 25 million over a phased period, if their children are enrolled in school and participate in immunization.
“So we are actually doing two things; we are giving stipends to the very poorest and ensuring that in order to earn that stipend they certify two conditions”

This clearly state that a man that will be entitle to this must be a married man with kids and must meet those clauses.

* Buhari didn't promise to pay N5000 to 25m poor families at a time. In PYO's explanation on this before the election, he stressed that:

“We are looking at phasing it over a period because it will cost about N1.35 trillion to do so if we do all 25 million at once.
He maintained that, if elected,the programme will be done in batches of 5 million people a year, adding that “depending on resources we can even do more”.

This clearly explain that the schedule is for 5 million people a year and not 25 million as you earlier stated. This state categorically that the N1.5 trillion will be spent on this project for 5 years and not for a year as you stated in your analysis. Only N300b is needed for this yearly.


2. Buhari to Provide daily meal for Primary school pupil:
Thanks for bringing in the case of Osun state into this point, it will make it clearer. On this point, you came up with a total sum of N373 billion per annum. We all saw the recent statistics of revenue allocated to each state by FG, I saw it here on Nairaland, Osun is the lowest earning state and I don't think Osun's IGR is up to 30% of the allocation it get from FG. Probably why the state owe workers some months salary. It depend solely on FG allocation and their has been a cut in the allocation of each state since last year due to the fall in oil price. Osun could still afford feeding Primary 1 to 4 student despite this circumstances.


The case is simple, to save more revenue. The federal goverment could collaborate with states government in order to achieve this goal. The cost may be shared between both tiers of government in a case of 60:40 or 70:30.
If you remain adamant it should be done alone by FG, no problem, further analysis will clear the air.

***********************************
Going into your analysis we have a deficit of aproximately N1.9 trillion or we have a sum of N1.9 trillion to raise. With this analysis, it will clearly show that's a pathetic fallacy. As said earlier, the payment of the stipend is going to be done in batches, 5 million people per year. The cost of paying 5 million people this sum will equals:

N1.5 trillion / 5 years
= N300 billion a year

Also, N373 billion is needed for feeding primary school pupils a year. This eventually equals to:

N300b + N373b = N673b

This is approximately N700 billion naira per annum contrary to N1.87 trillion you stated in your analysis.

Your analysis was also base solely on the revenue generated from oil, their was no consideration for other sectors and also note that our budget is prepared with all eyes all oil revenue.

The incoming administration has promised to diversify the economy. GMB claims he will generate incomes from other sectors such as mining, agriculture, etc.


As Obiagelli stated, Nigeria annual income on oil this year if oil is sold at $60 per barrel through out the year will be N5.1 trillion naira (after 40% of the income has been transferred to the oil companies) with 2m barrels sold daily though we actually produced and sells officially 2.5m barrels daily (though some corners rumoured it to be 4 millions barrels).

N5.1tri - N4.6b = N500 billion.
We will have an excess of more than the needed N700 billion if the exact 2.5m barrel daily and possibilities of increase in oil price.


As Obiagelli stated on her thread, FIRS generates N4.6 trillion in 2014. If the same amount is generated every year, we will have:

N4.6tri - N700b = N3.9 trillion
That is an excess of approximately N4 trillion every year if the revenue remains stagnant in the coming years and their is a high probability of it growing.


Apart from this 2 ways I stated, we could also get the N700b from mining, agriculture, etc.


With this I stressed it possible for this social program to be accomplished by GMB's administration.


NOTE: I 'm not saying that GMB will fulfil the promise but I 'm only acclaiming the fact that it is very possible to be accomplished.

omg i said make una live barcanista and firefire alone stop replyin his thread both of dem are loser


buhari we know

sai baba

sai buhari

I have a simple question for you @crownprince102:

You said that 25million poor families will not access the 5K per month social welfare package at a time. You said it will be in batches of 5million families each year.

Now my question is this, after the first batch of 5 million families enjoy the warefare package will they cease to enjoy the package when the next batch of 5 million families are brought in to benefit from the social welfare scheme?

Your response please.

cc: Barcanista

sarahatuba:

Hey hun
when i made that comment i was tlking abt the ones who always sound bitter nd hateful.....nt all pdp supporters but MOST ive seen on here scare me with their comments (sure you know what im tlking abt )
hmmm like making N1=$1 that he never even said?

Why are you so [size=90pt]BEAUTIFUL[/size] ??

guyX:
So nothing for the unemployed.

Go find work...

wen he starts reviving the mining industry and other sectors..

make sure you put ur ears down to listen for employment..

you will get employed by GOD's grace

Atmmachine:


Why are you so [size=90pt]BEAUTIFUL[/size] ??

This is what they call JAMB QUESTION

ShowYourCertificate:
I have a simple question for you @crownprince102:

You said that 25million poor families will not access the 5K per month social welfare package at a time. You said it will be in batches of 5million families each year.

Now my question is this, after the first batch of 5 million families enjoy the warefare package will they cease to enjoy the package when the next batch of 5 million families are brought in to benefit from the social welfare scheme?

Your response please.

cc: Barcanista

Bros, please read my reply up. The dude is working on Obiagelli's figures that I have proven to be laughable with RAW facts... Whether in batches or otherwise, they are on a LONG thing

I have said it severally that the people who came up with the manifesto are not dumb. They know what they're doing.

Also recall that this same manifesto was critiqued by Prof. Soludo to which APC gave clarifications.

So, who is that boy with no integrity to question if the programs are achievable or not?

The pain at losing the election after earlier supporting GMB for the greater part of the campaign period before decamping for protection must be too devastating for him to bear, hence the obsession.

Fortunately for him, he has equally pained mod who is at his beck and call.

Make dem no go develop high bp sha!

I do not support paying any money to unemployed graduates or vulnerable families. But I wholeheartedly support school feeding. Several models have shown that it increases the enrolment in primary schools astronomically. We need our kids educated. The other day in Abuja, I saw a young boy hawking groundnut close to a garden where I was having lunch with a friend. Almost everyone there was asking the boy why he was not in school. Turned out the boy's mother is a widow who is finding it hard to cater to the family's needs, hence all her kids are being mobilized to hawk to augment what she makes in one of the outskirt markets in the FCT.

Now sending those kids to school where they are sure of a full stomach for the afternoon will make a big difference. This should be the first social program Buhari should face.

[size=18pt]petrol pump price to be reviewed downwards 10 naira per litre even though subsidies are to be completely removed

Naira to be equal to the dollar once super man pa Buhari single handedly stabilizes international oil price with the aid of the gallant Nigerian Army

25 million ab0kis including their cousins in Niger and Chad republic to get 5k per month as their share in using their children to rig in Pa Buhari

China economic and billateral relations and direct infrastructural investments to cease in prefrence for IMF loan package

Boko Haram members to enjoy full amnesty with payment for their role in destabilizing the Nation. Some of their commanders will be drafted with immediate effect into the Muhajadeen Unit under the Guards Brigade

Chibok girls will be missed like Joeseph Kony[/size]

mashnino:


Go find work...

wen he starts reviving the mining industry and other sectors..

make sure you put ur ears down to listen for employment..

you will get employed by GOD's grace

you sounded like you know me.

ShowYourCertificate:
I have a simple question for you @crownprince102:

You said that 25million poor families will not access the 5K per month social welfare package at a time. You said it will be in batches of 5million families each year.

Now my question is this, after the first batch of 5 million families enjoy the warefare package will they cease to enjoy the package when the next batch of 5 million families are brought in to benefit from the social welfare scheme?

Your response please.

cc: Barcanista

loool their lives would av been magically transformed after they get d meagre sum for a year loool

wonder why mine hasn't been transformed anyway after receiving 19650 NYSC allowee for close to 7 months now looooool

guyX:

you sounded like you know me.

hahaha.... i knw you na..

shey ur name na guyx?..

na me just quote u nw nw

sarahatuba:

This is what they call JAMB QUESTION

What is [size=75pt]JAMB[/size]??

This OP is making efforts to white-wash the total failure of Buharism. APC campaign stated that you will pay 5,000 to 25m Nigerians MONTHLY and provide food for kids in Primary School from May 29 till the LIFE OF HIS ADMINISTRATION. But the OP, in his attempt to make sense out of nonsense policy statement has AGAIN meandered, by stating that Buhari NEVER stated he will provide the 5,000 to 25m in ONE PHASE.

Buharism is NOT a good school of thought. This is a group that keeps making promises and pledges without using the calculator to fact-check the efficacy and possibility of their statements. I am sorry OP, you need to get back to the drawing board, and call Buhari to prepare to Stabilize the Price of Crude Oil and Feed our kids. The 25,000,000 Nigerians are waiting for the monthly welfare packages of 5,000 each EVERY MONTH AS PROMISED!