The political clime in Imo is very interesting right now. I and may observers can see the Okorocha is in trouble politically as it stands because of various reasons all tied back to his lack of a sober and calculated mind. Not saying that he's drunk lol, but politics requires a level of self containment and assessment based on strategy more than ego. Rochas is a great governor in comparison to his contemporaries in Imo and gives Imo state a lot to be proud of, but these are the few reasons why 2015 will be a rough year for him.


1. Isolation: Rochas is now effectively a political orphan. It is said that in the 48 laws of power that one should never outshine the master. No matter how powerful or successful one becomes he must never attempt to outshine the person that first gave him a chance or opened that door for him because it's disastrous. Fashola doesn't attack or negate Tinubu, despite Fashola being globally more acclaimed and popular, GEJ till this day does not bite the Yar Adua hand and aims to preserve his name and legacy even in death. We have seen the result for Atiku, though arguably being just as rich as OBJ and well connect, when he went against OBJ and became a political non-entity.

Rochas is the produce of the AGPA power structure. Whether he acknowledges it or not, he's a newcomer and a gem to the party, but the party belongs to Ojukwu and his legacy. A strategic thinker would try to own the legacy in order to own the party and Rochas didn't do this. Peter Obi on the other hand, did. Peter Obi is more firmly entrenched and works as a power broker for the AGPA, which gave Rochas the open door. His ego caused him to start viewing Obi as a rival, which is foolish and a downfall for many if not most igbo politicians. No matter how much you've our achieved your master, you must acknowledge them as that because they own the stage by which you shine on.

Rochas has offended AGPA, he's doomed.


2. APC has no barrings in the east: APC is only big because PDP is big. When you speak of PDP and it's power, the opposition will be the next to be mentioned. These mentions make many opposition peoples and parties seem bigger than they are. When you speak of opposing Goodluck, the next name that will come out of your mouth will be Buhari. When you speak of opposing PDP, the next name ACN. Though a merger of these parties is formidable, it should be noted that GEJ had more votes than all other opposition parties combined. That ACN was only able to deliever one state in the last election, and that Buhari's popularity is sinking as non-northerners no longer see him as an option. Both Tinubu and Buhari thus seem bigger than they really are because they're the only thing we can call an opposition. We're used the US system which we mimic where rivals (Democrats and Republicans) are equally matched in all spheres, from funding to popularity. The case of the PDP v. APC is no different.

The main issue is the APC has no barrings in the east what so ever. It is headed by two people that Igbos see as tribal/regional leaders for distant peoples. The only spear head they have is in Anambra where ACN has decent membership, but Anambra is easily the most 'pro-igbo' state in the Nigerian union. Non-igbo leadership in Anambra is akin to non muslim leadership in Sokoto. Anambra is the political terrain of giants, and ACN's heads in Anambra are no where close to the powers that AGPA and PDP hold in that state. In all other igbo states both parties have no barrings.


Rochas has made a naive and ego driven move to to use CPC and ACN's nativity about politics in the east as a wedge to climb the APC ladder. If Rochas runs for governor in this next election, he will find that he alone doesn't have what it takes to deliver Imo, and more pressingly, nor does APC.

3. Megalomania: Rochas, support him or not, is a megalomaniac. People with pathological mental dispositions have one main weakness; predictability. Everyone in Imo state knows what Rochas will and would do in any given situation and this makes him easier to defeat. Even arch criminals who are reputed to be geniuses give the police an easier job because they're predictable. Everyone knows that any situation that will glorify his name he will follow, he has a hard time keeping his ambitions to himself, he is uncomfortable playing #2, and chance to speak he will be the loudest, and this can and will be disastrous because everyone knows how he operates too well.

More politically savvy individuals are less so. OBJ is a big man, the biggest of big men in Nigeria, but few know of his willingness to beg, get on his knees and act unpredictability to keep his enemies off his trail and his followers on edge. Babandiga and even the aforementioned Peter Obi are the same, though their tactics differ, they seldom let the public know what those tactics and ambitions are.



in my personal opinion, Rochas is in trouble if he's aiming for a second term bid.