In SW states, GEJ will win Lagos n Ondo state. And it will garner some votes of 30% from the remaining four states. In NW states, GEJ will garner 30% votes likewise NE.
In NC states, GEJ will garner 70% votes while in SE and SS it is 90% votes.
Mark this comment today and tell me the outcome of the election in 2015.

The more I read FFK of late, the more I enjoy his summations. I wish more Youruba leaders will be just as outspoken on national issues as FFK, and especially on matters concerning SW, and Edo politics.

@Cramjones:
Here is my take --- I agree with idea of zoning the presidency to the North not because there are no capable people in other regions but because it could bring peace to our nation. A nation cannot progress without peace and more so it was the South who defaulted on PDP pre-arranged power sharing formula.

Presidential Slot
The foremost challenge is to find a candidate from the North that is acceptable to both North and South.
A person who is seen as a liberal and a performer. Buhari stands shoulder above the rest in the performance category, but I'm not sure if he's perceived as liberal especially for Southerners who are very wary of islamization -even though it's an unfounded fear; nevertheless, the fear is real. As for me Buhari is the most qualified. El Rufai, I have no doubt will do a very good job, but cannot garner enough votes to close the deal.
Tambulawal is moderate and will be a good candidate if he defects.

VP Slot:
As for VP slot, Fashola is the key to SW, the other current SW governors are doing very well but they are yet to earn their stripes. Do not be bothered about Muslim/Muslim ticket crap. Average SW'ner doesn’t give a fuccck if you are Muslim or Christian. For us in the SW, it boils down to performance. It is whoever can get the job done. We are just tired of this ineptitude. We need a performer. Hopefully under APC, the VP will not be a lame duck.
A good thing will be to put Power under the purview of the VP. If APC makes this a campaign promise and Fashola is selected as VP. APC can be sure that SW is in the pocket.

APC should not bother looking for any VP candidate in the SE/SS, not because there are no credible candidates but that region is safe for PDP. Rochas or Amechi are good performers, and good enough to even be the top ticket, but unfortunately their zone is safe PDP.

cramjones:

So God now endorses stealing of billions of dollars?

So God now endorses budgetary allocation of N1billion for food, when majority of Nigerians aren't sure of the next meal?

So God now endorses sponsoring of boko haram in the north, tearing it apart to ensure voting does not take place in APC strong holds?

So God now endorses a president that is known to lie all the time?

So God now endorses a Nigeria that has no standard health facility, a Nigeria with over 112 million living in poverty, a Nigeria with over 40 million jobless youth, a Nigeria now referred to as the "kidnap capital of the world"?

I don't know what god/God you serve but the God I serve does not endorse this!

You were a minister right? Maybe I'm mixing up my memories.
ACN(APC) has been in Lagos for over 14 years and Tinubu went to UK for knee treament. Did GEJ also ban them from building a hospital that can treat his knee?
Or is it the 8billion Yatch that's "bad business"?

Maybe I expected too much from you.

dayokanu:

Remember NC states like Niger, Kwara and nasarawa currently tilt towards the APC

That will be 22 states, remaining 2.

Buhari / Fashola , if APC needs to avoid a muslim-muslim situation, then Buhari / Pat utomi.

I agree with cramjones on a basic point: There will only be near 100% turnout of voters in the SW and NW if the 2 zones produce both the Presidential and VP nominee. Anything else, and GEJ will make significant in-roads in those zones.

CFCfan:

That will be 22 states, remaining 2.

Those 22 are states APC is favoured to win outrightly.

APC would get at least 25% in states Like Plateau, Kogi, Benue even if they dont win

emiye: Buhari / Fashola , if APC needs to avoid a muslim-muslim situation, then Buhari / Pat utomi.

Or a Tambuwal/Fashola, Tambuwal/Utomi combo might suffice. But Utomi is already looking into the Delta State gubernatorial election.

CFCfan:
Or a Tambuwal/Fashola, Tambuwal/Utomi combo might suffice. But Utomi is already looking into the Delta State gubernatorial election.

Tambuwal doesnt command the type of followership Buhari has in the North

Buhari in the North is like a slam dunk

Geniro:

Thanks for stroking the flawed confidence of a fellow paid goon like you.

The horse dies in battle because it could not refuse its riders.

The spoon dives into hot soup because it cannot say no.

The fly follows the corpse into the grave because of its greed and foolishness.

Whatever the wise man says is usually tactlessly parroted by the jester.

Here, you are the horse, the spoon and the fly. On a milder note, you are also the jester.

Enough said.

dayokanu:

Those 22 are states APC is favoured to win outrightly.

APC would get at least 25% in states Like Plateau, Kogi, Benue even if they dont win

That's true! Then one of Tambuwal/Kwankwaso/Buhari would be President-elect.

Heheheheeheh!
Buhari a serial loser,an obvious fact.

Orlando Owoh:
Don't be foolish, Yoruba has never been VP to the north rather it's VP to Yoruba. Atiku was VP to OBJ. Apart from the Buhari/Idiagbon regime, which was military, Yoruba has never been VP. Even at that Idiagbon was the de facto Head of State; Buhari was just de jure.
Igbo have always been VP, the beautiful bride, a Nnamdi Azikiwe put it. Azikiwe was acting for the British monarch. He was "VP" to Balewa. Alex Ekwueme was VP to Shehu Shagari.

I was not only talking about vice president,....why must north always front yorubas to get power and get away with it,....The same north annuled an election judged to be free and fair won by a yoruba man,jailed him killed his wife and then put a yoruba man as figure head in power inorder to transfer power to his brother,.....his brother rounded all the yorubas in the army and was almost killing them all but for God,...He died and another north came up again but had to push forward a yoruba man again to act as a transit for power to return to the north again,...the man did his 8yrs and ask for another which the north refused,....In order to spite the north,he disorganised the whole power equation formular and with God's devine wisdom power returned to the south,....Now the north is back to the yorubas again wanting to recruit them once again to wrestle power back to the north,...yoruba eronu o,....GEJ TILL 2019

patriotic007: I was not only talking about vice president,....why must north always front yorubas to get power and get away with it,....The same north annuled an election judged to be free and fair won by a yoruba man,jailed him killed his wife and then put a yoruba man as figure head in power inorder to transfer power to his brother,.....his brother rounded all the yorubas in the army and was almost killing them all but for God,...He died and another north came up again but had to push forward a yoruba man again to act as a transit for power to return to the north again,...the man did his 8yrs and ask for another which the north refused,....In order to spite the north,he disorganised the whole power equation formular and with God's devine wisdom power returned to the south,....Now the north is back to the yorubas again wanting to recruit them once again to wrestle power back to the north,...yoruba eronu o,....GEJ TILL 2019

I am talking about Politically where your people Ibos have always queued up to suck up to hausas whether its Azikwe the so calledbeautiful bride or Alex Ekwueme.

Always willing tools for the hausa North

dayokanu:

Tambuwal doesnt command the type of followership Buhari has in the North

Buhari in the North is like a slam dunk

Buhari could be his mentor, just as Tinubu is, to Fashola.

Anyway, I almost forgot the FCT in our calculations. Assuming the APC gets 25% in 25 states, and doesn't do the same in the FCT, the election will still go to a runoff. But that's a long shot, because as things stand, the APC should be able to garner even 30% in the FCT.

CFCfan:
Or a Tambuwal/Fashola, Tambuwal/Utomi combo might suffice. But Utomi is already looking into the Delta State gubernatorial election.

Tambuwal is barely heavy weight. On Utomi both aspirations all stand as projections

CFCfan:
Like I said, the Middle-Belt will be the battle ground zone. Don't forget that it's not just a majority of votes that is needed to win, a party also has to score 25% in at least 24 states.If the APC candidate only scores 25% or more in the 19 states that make up the NW, NE and SW, and gets less than 25 in the other states and the FCT, there will be a run-off election.

At the run-off election, only a simple majority of the votes is required to win, according to Section 143 of the 1999 constitution (as amended). So I guess, I meant to say that there might be a runoff election.

All you have said is largely academic, however elements of it make sense.

If the elections result in a run-off, then it looks like APC will win - barring any major electoral fraud.

Having said that, given the appetite for change within the vast majority of the polity, I envisage a shift from a PDP run government.

emiye: Buhari / Fashola , if APC needs to avoid a muslim-muslim situation, then Buhari / Pat utomi.

I love Pat Utomi but such an arrangement can only work if he is given a defined responsibility. There is a difference between Politics and Economics, especially in Nigeria.

Utomi is a good economist but does he have the aptitude for dirty politics in Nigeria? I dont think so.

ilugunboy:

Utterly irrelevant.

If APC didn't perform well in those zones I listed...na for SS or SE dem go perform

Those zones listed are the strength of APC....



So...because they are sophisticated and educated...they should stand akimbo and unconcerned while a President treats them as if they are no longer Nigerians?

Keep deceiving yourself.

No, because they think they are sophiscated, they should start querying tinubu on how he spends SW IGR.
That is the immediate problem of the yorubas, and nit mere vice presidency.
U ppl allow tinubu to enjoy all the tax payers money like u all are illiterates, yet u will come here on NL and claim u are sophisticated?
Are u ppl not like hausas in this regard?
.
Igbos dont claim to be politically savvy but they object to extortion without due compensation.
Aba Women's riot of 1929 is clear for all to see.

Jurgenbill: In SW states, GEJ will win Lagos n Ondo state. And it will garner some votes of 30% from the remaining four states. In NW states, GEJ will garner 30% votes likewise NE.
In NC states, GEJ will garner 70% votes while in SE and SS it is 90% votes.
Mark this comment today and tell me the outcome of the election in 2015.

This is just the bitter end result to all this noise,....But please we dont need post election violence again this time,....anyone who is misled to try it will be dealt with,...with maximum force,...GEJ TILL 2019

i have never hated and yet loved a country like i do my Nigeria. Our citizens are the smartest yet the dullest in every standard. We have everything in our hands to make every single country Africa inconsequential. Now to the issue at hand, why don't we see that an Hausa man in Aso rock in 2015 won't change anything in the country, neither would a Yoruba or Igbo man make the difference. We all too tribal conscious. When one tribe gets up there, the others patiently wait for their turn to loot, creat unpatriotic alliances and steal the country dry and this corupt circle goes up and down. It's my opinion fiscal federalism is the key. All regions produce and maintain their resources and pay task to the federal government. That way the presidency is less sought after. Each region are locked in a healthy rivary of competition. This happened before the civil war so i'm not saying anything new. I can see the east becoming the Asian tigers of Africa, the west a stable mixed economy that's very advanced. The south-south becoming the African dubai with cash flow and the north the agricultural hub of the country. That's my suggest and i stand to be corrected but it's a heap lot better than putt4ng on tribal blinders and screen it's the turn of my tribe to be president.

i have never hated and yet loved a country like i do my Nigeria. Our citizens are the smartest yet the dullest in every standard. We have everything in our hands to make every single country in Africa inconsequential. Now to the issue at hand, why don't we see that an Hausa man in Aso rock in 2015 won't change anything in the country, neither would a Yoruba or Igbo man make the difference. We're all too tribal conscious. When one tribe gets up there, the others patiently wait for their turn to loot, creat unpatriotic alliances and steal the country dry and this corupt circle goes on and on. It's my opinion fiscal federalism is the key. All regions produce and maintain their resources and pay task to the federal government. That way the presidency is less sought after. Each region are locked in a healthy rivary of competition. This happened before the civil war so i'm not saying anything new. I can see the East becoming the Asian tigers of Africa, the West a stable mixed economy that's very advanced. The South-south becoming the African dubai with cash flow and the North the agricultural hub of the country. That's my suggest and i stand to be corrected but it's a heap lot better than putting on tribal blinders and screaming ''it's the turn of my tribe to be president''.

If Fashola is given the VP slot, then the whole SW is in APC forget and he'd likely garner some votes also in SS states.

The key to APC winning the presidential election is by not fielding any defecting PDP member, that will be their greatest undoing. Not even Kwankwasko (what's the spelling sef) will suffice, we don't want recycled PDP members as flagbearer.

ochejoseph: Whoever they field will looose !

Its GEJ till 2019 , don't waste your time !!!

ORI E BURU

CFCfan:

Buhari could be his mentor, just as Tinubu is, to Fashola.

Anyway, I almost forgot the FCT in our calculations. Assuming the APC gets 25% in 25 states, and doesn't do the same in the FCT, the election will still go to a runoff. But that's a long shot, because as things stand, the APC should be able to garner even 30% in the FCT.

After everything, remember to factor in that state of origin is different from state of residence.
Cities with large population in Nig are largely cosmopolitan hence permutations might not work.
Most hausas in the SE/SS wl vote for buhari, most igbos anywhere will vote for GEJ.
Just a thought.

larride: If Fashola is given the VP slot, then the whole SW is in APC forget and he'd likely garner some votes also in SS states.

The key to APC winning the presidential election is by not fielding any defecting PDP member, that will be their greatest undoing. Not even Kwankwasko (what's the spelling sef) will suffice, we don't want recycled PDP members as flagbearer.

Watch APC disgrace themselves nah
.
That reminds me, I thought ngige is a good man?
Y is APC not considering him?
Rochas?

Italiano1:

All you have said is largely academic, however elements of it make sense.

If the elections result in a run-off, then it looks like APC will win - barring any major electoral fraud.

Having said that, given the appetite for change within the vast majority of the polity, I envisage a shift from a PDP run government.

APC will be extremely lucky to get a runoff,....you guys under estimate the power of incubency,....Not just an incubent but an incubent that has a large fan base and has an assurance of block votes from 3 geopolitical zones(MB,SE,SS) out of 6 in the country,....keep dreaming,....then wake up later to say elections where rigged

ketoprofen:

After everything, remember to factor in that state of origin is different from state of residence.
Cities with large population in Nig are largely cosmopolitan hence permutations might not work.
Most hausas in the SE/SS wl vote for buhari, most igbos anywhere will vote for GEJ.
Just a thought.

You've got a valid point there. But the Yorubas and the Hausa-Fulani still make up a majority of the population in both the SW and NW respectively. Even at that, the "non-indigenes" in those zones are still likely to cast their vote for the APC.

The election is surely going to be fascinating. I can't remember the last time an incumbent Nigerian President has been so close to losing an election.

ketoprofen:
Watch APC disgrace themselves nah
.
That reminds me, I thought ngige is a good man?
Y is APC not considering him?
Rochas?

You and I know that politics is a game of numbers, its a known fact that GEJ will win 95% of the votes in SE and 80% in SS, APC will want to produce a candidate that will win their territory, right now, nobody in SE/SS can wrestle votes from PDP for APC, you know that, I know that and I'm sure APC strategist know that also, so they will think about their own stronghold and win their also. That's the reality on ground.

Italiano1:

I love Pat Utomi but such an arrangement can only work if he is given a defined responsibility. There is a difference between Politics and Economics, especially in Nigeria.

Utomi is a good economist but does he have the aptitude for dirty politics in Nigeria? I dont think so.

Pat Utomi is a trade off , if APC wants to avoid a muslim/muslim ticket mudslinging. Pat Utomi is seen as a technocrat, with virtually no stained past record, popular in Lagos, which holds 40% of the SW votes, a Delta-Igbo, ...... . Yes, Utomi is not a "politician", but he will only be a running mate.

i dont know your context of defined responsibility, is it pre election or post election? If it is post election, V.P are as useful as their defined responsibility

SUBMARINE: YORUBA CHRISTIANS YOUR DESTINY IS AT
STAKE REMEMBER AFONJA
The battle against GEJ is spiritual using human interests as cover up. One thing am sure of is that, GEJ is an instrument of change in God's hand that will place Nigeria on the path to economic greatness needed to support thousands of God's missionaries of Nigeria origin within and outside Nigeria and of which the Easterners will constitute a large proportion of this missionaries. The simple truth is that this plan of God can't be delayed the way it was delayed in the 1960s because Nigerians' now understand God's plan and are ready to fulfill it.....FACT. My plea goes to the Yoruba's not to allow Tinubu and Obj deceive them into foolishly working against God's plan. ROME WAS NOT BUILT IN A DAY.

tell this to your kinsmen across the Niger.

Ffk shd pls tell us d last tym he had a pussy 2 Bleep..... He talks lyk he's sex starved