In order to win the Presidency in 2015, the successful party will have to control the majority of Nigeria's 36 state Governorships.

- In the 2015 elections half of the State Governors will have completed their maximum two terms, so state-level elections are likely to be extremely competitive across the country.

- Of the 28 governorship elections taking place, 18 states (or two-thirds) will have vacant seats. 10 of these 18 states have 40.9% of all registered voters.

- This numerical analysis indicates both the PDP and APC could each secure 17 states in Governorship elections.

- To win, a Presidential candidate needs an overall majority and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states (24 states). On current indications, if President Goodluck Jonathan runs as PDP candidate he is likely to get an overall majority. However, he may not automatically get the necessary one-quarter of the vote in two-thirds of states and the FCT.

- Therefore if voting patterns are similar to 2011 a run-off election situation would be likely. This would be a historic first under Nigeria's present electoral system.

However, this run-off outcome is likely to be determined by the choice of candidates put up by the main APC opposition party and the issue of North-South 'zoning'.

- It is difficult to predict the outcome of this run-off. If it does not favour an outright win for the PDP, it may further weaken its chances at the subsequent gubernatorial elections given that half of the seats are vacant.

2011's results are only a useful guide to 2015 if conditions stay the same, including INEC's conduct in voter registration and election management.

- Therefore, with high incentives for many actors to rig, it will be important for stakeholders in democratic consolidation to focus on issues such as registration and collation, which are likely to be hot in all states
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The current political alignment of state government is as follows. Note that APGA and Labour Party states have tended to ally with the ruling PDP party.

People's Democratic Party (PDP) - 20

All Progressives Congress (APC) - 14

All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) - 1

Labour Party (LP) - 1

2011 Results Analysis

In May 2011, gubernatorial polls took place and results were announced in 25 states, excluding the Imo (re-run) and 9 others which were not due for re-election. 20 states had one-term sitting governors running for re-election, and 5 states had vacant seats after Governors had completed two terms. Their average share of the votes looked like this:

Category Number of States Average winning share of vote

1. Sitting Governor gets second term 17 69.01%

2. Non-incumbent candidate wins 8 54.08%

2a> where opponent beats one-term sitting governor who is running for re-election 3 47.3%

2b> where candidate wins 'empty' seat where there is no first-term governor running for re-election 5 58.16%

2b.1> of which candidate from immediate previously ruling party wins 'empty' seat 3 62.7%

2b.2> of which candidate from party previously in opposition wins 'empty' seat 2 51.15%

3. Average winning share of PDP sitting Governors 15 68.22%

4. Average winning share of non-PDP sitting Governors 2 74.95%

Based on this we can see that in 2011 elections being an incumbent governor typically gives an advantage of 15% when seeking re-election (69.01 - 54.08 = 14.93%).

The marginal advantage of being an incumbent party contesting a 'vacant' seat - i.e. where a governor has completed two terms and is not coming back - is calculated by subtracting the average vote-share of winning non-incumbents from the average vote share of those who won seats just vacated by the same party: 11.2% (62.7% - 51.5%)

Some other observations:

If you're contesting for an 'empty' seat, you're likely to win by a larger share of the vote (62%) if you're from the party which was just in power than if you're from an opposition party (51%).

Anyone not in power at the start of the race (whether national opposition or ruling party, whether running against a sitting governor or an empty seat) typically gets a lower margin of victory (47%) than incumbents running for re-election (69%).

The advantage of being an incumbent first-term governor running for re-election is not larger for PDP Governors. In fact, non-PDP incumbents won with average 75% share of the votes, whereas PDP incumbents won an average of 68%. It thus seems that being in power locally matters more than being allied with the national ruling party, although more research and larger samples would be needed to prove this.

2015 Election Projections

Using the trends in the 2011 elections, if other conditions remain equal, based on the current landscape, we make the following preliminary projections.

State Governorships

There are 28 gubernatorial seats up for election in 2015:

10 incumbents are contesting for a second term

Three are in PDP-controlled states

Seven are in APC-controlled states.

18 vacant seats

Fourteen are in PDP-controlled states

Four are in APC-controlled states

Category Current No. of State Governorships Projections of State Governorships to be won 2015

Incumbents: Based on 85% Rule

APC 7 6 in APC states = 6

PDP 3 3 in PDP states1 in APC states = 4

Seats to be vacant: Based on winning vote share in 2011 gubernatorial elections: 60-40%

APC 4 2 in APC states6 in PDP states = 8

PDP 14 8 in PDP states2 in APC states = 10

Assumed to be incumbent in states with no election in February 2015

APC 3 3

PDP 3 3

APGA 1 1

LABOUR 1 1

TOTAL

APC 14 17

PDP 20 17

APGA 1 1

LABOUR 1 1

TOTAL 36 36

Projections:

If the rule that incumbents win 85% of the time with a 60% share of votes holds, for the 10 states with incumbents running for re-election in the governorship elections, a likely outcome is that the APC wins 6 seats while the PDP wins 4.

There are 18 vacant seats which will have no incumbent contesting. In 2011, the PDP won 60% of such seats while opposition parties (although before uniting as the APC) collectively won 40%. Working with this admittedly crude assumption (based on just five vacant seats contested in 2011), the PDP is therefore likely to win 10 governorship states while the APC gets 8 states.

Therefore in states holding elections in 2015, it is likely that the PDP ends up with 14 states and the APC with 14. If these figures are added to the other states without governorship elections, the tally is:

PDP: 14 states + 3 non-participating states = 17

APC: 14 states + 3 non-participating states = 17

APGA = 1 non-participating state

Labour = 1 non-participating state

Total 36 states

This could mean that PDP and allied parties will control 19 states, fewer than the 22 it currently does. However, these are broad generalisations and it is difficult to identify the specific states in question.

Presidential election projections

Going by the initial rule we applied, if the PDP candidate is incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, he might seem to have an 85% chance of winning with about 60% of the votes. However, given Nigeria's Federal system, the proportion of vacant governorship seats and the rapidly changing alliances in the political landscape, other variables may come into play.

We can assume that states largely support the same party for Presidential elections as they do for Governorship elections (although in 2011 a number of mainly northern states, as well as ACN states in in an electoral pact with PDP in the South-West, bucked the trend).

Going by the 85% assumption, if local incumbency is the prime factor, since 22 of the states are currently PDP or allied parties in the current dispensation, the PDP may win the Presidential vote in 21 states (19 PDP states and 2 APC states), and the APC meanwhile would win Presidential votes in 15 states (12 currently APC and 3 PDP states). This is likely to be enough for a simple majority.[1]

If however, we go by the projected trends in the governorship elections as useful pointers, we end up with a different result, with both parties winning in 17 states each.

The absolute numbers of voters cannot be predicted but it may be significant that the APC goes into the election controlling two states with the largest number of registered voters, Lagos (6.1 million registered voters in 2011) and Kano (5 million).

Also remember that section 134 (1) of Nigeria's 1999 Constitution lays down two conditions for a victory; one is a majority of votes cast, but the other is a minimum of 25% of registered voters in two-thirds of Nigeria's states (i.e. 24 states).

Currently, with support of Labour and APGA, the PDP controls enough states to ensure that. However, in 2011 Bauchi state did not reach the needed minimum even when controlled by PDP, delivering only 16.05% of the vote for the party's candidate, while Katsina, also PDP, only just scraped over the minimum with 26.1%. So it is reasonable to assume that if support or turnout is low in PDP-ruled northern states, not all may deliver the 25% minimum needed to secure a win for the party's candidate.

In such a circumstance, the Constitution states that candidates would be forced into a second-round run-off election. Such a situation has not previously occurred under Nigeria's present electoral system.

Therefore, of three possible outcomes - outright PDP win, outright APC win, or a run-off election - the most likely outcome based on our projections from current data is that neither party would manage both factors for an outright victory so there would need to be an additional run-off election.

Neither is it clear which party that situation would favour. On one hand a nationally incumbent party may retain more resources to continue mobilising, but on the other, both the voting public and important political intermediaries may perceive momentum in the opposition which galvanises support for them popularity.

If the presidential election does not favour an outright win for the PDP, it may also further weaken the PDP's chances at the subsequent gubernatorial level given the proportion of vacant seats (18) to incumbent re-elections (10). The deciding states for the presidential election and the overall fortune of the two parties will be those 18 vacant seats, which also happen to have 54.4% (40.03 million) of 2011's registered voters, including 10 of the 14 states with the largest number of registered voters, underlining just how open this race really is.

Some Caveats

Incumbency advantages are very dependent on specific local factors, such as candidates, coalitions, party machinery, electorate sophistication, local issues and more; therefore it is hard to make a solid prediction on the outcomes. Importantly, the 2015 elections appear as if they will be a two-party race in all states, although this may also change if heavyweights who lose primaries in the two major parties decide to leave them.

In such a situation, the advantages of incumbency calculated from the 2011 multi-party elections may have less predictive value at the gubernatorial elections because the APC is a merger of three parties with varying strengths; the ACN, CPC and ANPP. This is additionally complex in states (such as Kano, Imo and Kwara) where PDP governors crossed over to the APC.

In that case, the advantage of incumbency would go beyond 11% because we would need to consider what proportion of the 2011 vote for other parties in the merger (i.e. CPC and ANPP) will be scooped up by APC. Additionally, in most of the states where the governor crossed over from the national ruling PDP with some or all of his supporters, the PDP still has a solid state structure.

While we are able to make some plausible projections where incumbents are re-contesting in 2015, it is difficult to do so for the 18 vacant seats because the parameters so far cannot test the strength of the opposition merger. What we can say however is that these seats will be hotly-contested.

Since presidential elections occur before governorship elections, it is possible these projections may have little predictive value on the outcome of the presidential elections because the patterns of voting for the governorship and presidential elections are considerably different.[2]

Moreover, there is no clear pattern - beyond an assumed incumbency advantage - by which states vote for a presidential candidate. Several factors come into play such as the interaction of local and national coalitions, incumbency, popularity of presidential candidates, local actors - governorship candidates and power brokers, relative party strength and structure, type of identity allegiances, and historical political behaviour of states.

The large number of vacant seats (18 of 28 up for election) will test the cohesion and organisation of the parties. One possibility is that the incentive for an outgoing or 'lame duck' Governor in a state with strong presence of an opposition party to 'deliver' that state to their presidential candidate is highly variable.

Another important qualifier is candidates' combination and popularity: We cannot fully factor this variable until the APC selects its candidate, but identity considerations are likely to be strong influences.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411070362.html

I have always predicted that elections in 2015 will be closest Nigeria has ever experienced, if it remains free and fair. This will only deepen our democracy- God bless Nigeria

Fallacy