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Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters - Politics - Nairaland

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Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by TheRealMrStan(m): 2:46pm On Dec 14, 2014
By Tim Cocks and Julia Payne

LAGOS/ABUJA, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Nigeria is suffering from a plummeting currency, steep budget cuts, corruption scandals and diving oil prices; yet all this is unlikely to decide a tight race for the presidency.

In many other democracies, such turmoil would probably propel the incumbent from office. A likely rise in inflation in Africa's biggest economy is unwelcome for President Goodluck Jonathan, who is seeking re-election on Feb. 14 next year.
But many Nigerians appear willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, while others will vote according to regional, sectarian or ethnic loyalties in the most closely fought election since the end of military rule in 1999.

Jonathan faces main opposition contender, ex-military leader Muhammadu Buhari, with the naira currency devalued 8 percent in the past month and a budget slashed by around 10 percent, both due to a near halving of world oil prices since June.
Yet any undecided voters appear unlikely to be swayed by economic hardship whose immediate cause lies in global markets.
"We are really suffering from the high dollar, but you can't blame President Jonathan for that. He can't control the dollar," said Daniel Ibere, whose sales of electronic goods in Lagos's overcrowded Eko Idumota market dropped when he raised prices.
Buhari is likely to benefit from a perception that Nigeria was ill prepared for the energy price shock because so much revenue from oil, its dominant export earner, has been lost to corruption under Jonathan's administration. He is regarded as a rare example of a graft fighter when president in 1983-85.

"CRYING AND COMPLAINING"
When the central bank devalued the naira last month to save foreign reserves, the impact was felt instantly on the streets. Nigeria imports 80 percent of what it consumes.
"Everyone is crying and complaining," said Ifeanyi Onuchukwu, a clothes wholesaler in the capital Abuja. Onuchukwu tried to raise his prices 10 percent, but the traders wouldn't buy his wares so he suffered losses.

Economist Bismarck Rewane thinks inflation will hit double digits for the first time in two years by January. "That's a difficult situation for Jonathan. You really don't need this two months before an election," he said.
But a bigger headache comes from allegations that billions of dollars of revenue have "leaked" at the state oil firm, according to ex-central bank governor Lamido Sanusi, among others. Jonathan removed Sanusi in February after he made the allegations.
Critics argue this is one reason why Nigeria failed to build up a savings cushion when oil prices were high. Buhari's campaign has focused on the economy and alleged corruption.
"The lives of the poor are bled dry while those of the powerful soak in excessive abundance," he said on Thursday after winning the opposition ticket.
This, however, may not be enough to sway an electorate divided along lines that for the most part have little to do with policy.
Nigeria has been dogged by regional rivalries since independence from Britain in 1960. It suffered a catastrophic civil war in the late 1960s and even today, many Nigerians vote for candidates from their own area or an allied ethnic group. Those who can widen their geographical appeal gain a distinct advantage.
"Policy has never been a great part of politics ... If you look at the last election, Buhari lost because he didn't win as many votes outside his area as Jonathan did outside his," said Anthony Goldman of Nigeria-focused PM Consulting.
He added that the economic problems could cut either way, since "there's sometimes a 'better the devil you know' factor" in times of crisis in Nigeria, a generally conservative country.

COLOUR OF YOUR MONEY
The other factor is money. Vast patronage is often needed to get communities to vote for a candidate, so the incumbent who controls the oil wealth enjoys an advantage.
This time money is running extremely low, and Nigeria's fiscal position always weakens around election time.
However, a parliamentary source said the funds needed to pay for campaigns on both sides had mostly already been stockpiled before the oil price crash, so the impact may be minimal.
While Nigeria faces a more austere budget, its debt remains low, certainly when compared with the developed world.
"Nigeria with its low debt ratios and fairly liquid markets has more capacity than most to increase borrowing ... to see it through a short-term price shock," says Razia Khan, Standard Chartered's Head of Africa Research.
And since suitcases of dollars are the preferred means of delivering patronage - carrying funds in naira bills would require trucks - election spending is likely to increase the supply of U.S. currency in the short term. That bodes well for the naira, which has steadied in a week of electoral primaries.

"Huge dollar spending by politicians on both the (ruling) PDP and (opposition) APC primaries saw the Lagos bureau de change markets awash with dollars," Business Day splashed on its front page on Friday. "This may have contributed significantly to the appreciation of the naira." (editing by David Stamp)


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2873256/Nigerias-economic-pain-not-decide-election.html

1 Like

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by holatin(m): 2:50pm On Dec 14, 2014
Re what.
A government present in good times will be remember for good likewise is the bad governance .


everything going nut and you think it wount affect his election.
There is no re-election for him but De- election (if that is an English word)

Buhari for president



*will modify my post later)

36 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Nobody: 3:00pm On Dec 14, 2014
I hope so.

2 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Mooaloji(m): 3:01pm On Dec 14, 2014
jona must go.
operation kick ebele back 2 zoo
TeamGMB

41 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by waternogetemeny: 3:01pm On Dec 14, 2014
GEJ till 2019

30 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by DancingSkeleton(m): 3:03pm On Dec 14, 2014
As swear naija don taya me

8 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by mooremedia: 3:03pm On Dec 14, 2014
our debt is low

1 Like

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by HugeMac: 3:03pm On Dec 14, 2014
What a country , naija strong

1 Like

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Xano(m): 3:03pm On Dec 14, 2014
Hmmm... "Nigeria with its low debt ratios and fairly liquid markets has more capacity than most to increase borrowing ... to see it through a short-term price shock," says Razia Khan, Standard Chartered's Head of Africa Research.
I don't advocate borrowing, but the above quote is good. Nigeria has low debt ratios.

2 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Nobody: 3:04pm On Dec 14, 2014
waternogetemeny:
GEJ till 2019
NO RETREAT NO SURRENDER.
WE CANT GO BACK!!!

15 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Morkavictor: 3:04pm On Dec 14, 2014
That good news.GEJ till 2019

22 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by free2ryhme: 3:04pm On Dec 14, 2014
another jonathan apologetic

5 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Pajames4all: 3:04pm On Dec 14, 2014
story. for the gods

3 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by free2ryhme: 3:04pm On Dec 14, 2014
when it does what will happen

2 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Nobody: 3:05pm On Dec 14, 2014
waternogetemeny:
GEJ till 2019

AKUNWATA1:
NO RETREAT NO SURRENDER.
WE CANT GO BACK!!!

nothing can stop us

GEJ till 2019

22 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Harbiurlah(f): 3:05pm On Dec 14, 2014
GEJ or no GEJ, all i pray for is a better NIGERIA.

7 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Nobody: 3:06pm On Dec 14, 2014
So so true! Its crazy how these foreign news agencies can sum up our political behaviours in naija and hit it on the head.

3 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by okotv(m): 3:07pm On Dec 14, 2014
nigeria

we don't learn in this country. The economy is getting worse as the day goes by, corruption at its peak, and other I'll forms of sucking this nation dry with the incumbent government chasing unseen enemies. Yet we say we are educated, the economic crises we are facing alone is enough reason to send the present government out of power but we won't cause he built road and Bridges (that's if he did or they would last), as if its not his job before. We have our voters cards, out voice and its our power, use it wisely if not we would continue to experience a downward trend till we become old and probably wise.

4 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Calculia: 3:07pm On Dec 14, 2014
GEJ until Buhari get sense...

18 Likes 9 Shares

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by ypzilanti: 3:07pm On Dec 14, 2014
The people always get the rulers that they deserve. Lets keep voting based on ethnic favoritism. UP Naija. GEJ till una get sense!

12 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Min57: 3:07pm On Dec 14, 2014
We r tired of this mathafacker, let him go back to his zoo or start a fish pond!!!

14 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by rozayx5(m): 3:08pm On Dec 14, 2014
i wonder how buhari will fight corruption with people like tinubu in his camp

15 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by YoursGEJ(m): 3:08pm On Dec 14, 2014
It is sad the those Nigerians who want change and know what needs to be done, are stuck with those who are terribly blinded by ethnic and religious sentiments. Even Reuters now knows people don't vote based on policy but on baseless and stupid reasons. I am yet to meet a single person who has given me one very good reason for voting Jonathan in 2015. all i hear is "he's a Christian", "he's from south south and they have never produced a president", "he's our brother". Ask yourself what your so-called brother has done for you or other Nigerians in the last six years. what have you yourself gained? If you answer that question sincerely, you know that the response is nothing.

What Jonathan needs is not Nigeria's presidency but a GIVING EXCUSES JOB.... Nigeria is too complex than to be
ruled by excuses for incompetence. We have heard them over and
over again. "they are inherited problems", I am being sabotaged", "there are boko haram sympathizers in my government (whether him dey wait for the ordinary man on the street to help am arrest them na him sabi)", "ordinary stealing is what they are calling corruption", "the terrorists are our brothers", "The US is not
helping us", "those westerners buying stolen crude are the
problems". Ah ah, na only you waka come? If allowed, this guy will not run out of excuses until
he grinds Nigeria's promising future and potential to a halt.,.....we should
be tired of his excuses by now. Even for local government councillor
these level of excuses are unacceptable


michaelmorrison:
join the great illuminati to get rich & famous cal_07068993377
.

bros as for you, abi the great illuminati no fit buy nairaland ad and yet you can make people rich and famous. See thief like you

13 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by mrlaw93(m): 3:09pm On Dec 14, 2014
Well is no news that some Nigerians are born fo0lish.. Tell me why would a man/woman with sense of thinking ever think of voting for mr Jonathan come 2015. #ICry..

6 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Bennyberry(m): 3:09pm On Dec 14, 2014
DrJoe1:




nothing can stop us

GEJ till 2019
lolzz are u paid?

7 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by Bmark: 3:10pm On Dec 14, 2014
another trash written in the bedroom of reno omokri and handed down to seun to put on the front page,,,,iranu from the stables of pdp as usal,,teamGMB

13 Likes

Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by PECO4KING(m): 3:10pm On Dec 14, 2014
No whala, wait and see.
Re: Nigeria's Economic Crisis May Not Affect Jonathan's Re-election. - Reuters by pafra(m): 3:11pm On Dec 14, 2014
In a country where about 80percent( graduates inclusive )don't know anything about there own economy and politics, they only base their decisions and argument on tribal,religious sentiments what do you expect? With state of Nigeria economy the next four years with GEJ will be terrible.

11 Likes

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