In 2011,Mr. Jonathan comfortably had 25% in 31states.but what's the relevance of 25%(24states) if the 1st and overRiding requirement, 'MAJORITY OF THE VOTES' is not met?it is important to note that 25% is not a MUST unlike 'MAJORITY'or technically, 'plurality'.so much emphasis is being placed on '25%'and for the PDP that's dangerous.for once, 2011 is not 2015.a lot has changed.the worry for both PDP and APC should be turnout of their supporters.that's where the difference would be made.
Delta, Rivers,Imo,Lagos, are some states Mr .JONATHAN got more than 1million plus votes.with the exception of lagos.dejavu is inevitable.Jonathan's margins were also huge in YORUBA STATES except OSUN.APC does not have the national spread of the PDP but it does not need it.knowing PDP HAS MORE WAYS TO maneuver through the Constitutional requirements,APC would be more concerned about denying the Incumbent, 'MAJORITY' IN THE FIRST BALLOT.then '25%', becomes useless.APC candidate Mr.Buhari got 25% IN 16 STATES in 2011,all in the North.in 2015,VALENTINE'S DAY, He's guarateed 25% in seven Southern states, even in ONDO AND EKITI states where PDP governors hold sway.in AMAECHI'S Rivers,Mr. Jonathan's 2011 margin would shrink but not by much.its more difficult for Mr. BUHARI TO Meet the 25% requirement than Mr. Jonathan. 16+7=23,NOT 24.MR.BUHARI'S hope is then a majority in the first ballot.anything short of that is defeat.
Much has been made about the NORTH-WEST&SOUTH-WEST electoral bank but the significance of Boko haram-ravaged North-East is more important for the APC as APC MIGHT BE VICTORS IN YORUBA STATES though by slim margins(EXCEPT osun) which does not bode well for the 'majority'calculations.a low turn out in the north-east region would spell doom if APC HOPES TO NEUTRALISE Mr Jonathan's advantage in North -Central.neither APC nor PDP is sure of huge victory in ONDO or EKITI.Mimiko's influence would count in ONDO but it would be by a tiny margin. for the APC, The battle for 'MAJORITY' IN THE FIRST BALLOT, OR PLURALITY is then a do or die thing as its the only path for victory.APC's strategists have a huge task in convincing north-east BUHARI FANS to shun the fear of boko-haram attacks and come out to vote. how Mr. BUHARI'S reverrence and cult- figure status would allay such fears would manifest on Valentine's day.

Who cares about ur "analysis" GEJ till 2019!!!

temitemi1:
Who cares about ur "analysis" GEJ till 2019!!!

we all know about your 'illogical' and rather mumucious rantings, if it is GEJ till 2019 temitemi1 then show workings, let us know if you are intelligent (even if na small) about it, am tired of blinded fools coming on forums (tanx to mtn bonanzas) and utter such lame and stupidities like 'gej till buhari somersaults', unless you are trying to be sarcastic because we the neutral analysts are begining to love buhari because his followers make intelligent reports/analysis (like the op) instead of rantings of educationally bereft fools. If GEJ no enter in2015, follow him to otuoke, nobody cares!

Nice observation. I'm beginning to get tired of the way GEJ supporters argue and conclude

timawoku:
we all know about your 'illogical' and rather mumucious rantings, if it is GEJ till 2019 temitemi1 then show workings, let us know if you are intelligent (even if na small) about it, am tired of blinded fools coming on forums (tanx to mtn bonanzas) and utter such lame and stupidities like 'gej till buhari somersaults', unless you are trying to be sarcastic because we the neutral analysts are begining to love buhari because his followers make intelligent reports/analysis (like the op) instead of rantings of educationally bereft fools. If GEJ no enter in2015, follow him to otuoke, nobody cares!

LOIUSXIV:
In 2011,Mr. Jonathan comfortably had 25% in 31states.but what's the relevance of 25%(24states) if the 1st and overRiding requirement, 'MAJORITY OF THE VOTES' is not met?it is important to note that 25% is not a MUST unlike 'MAJORITY'or technically, 'plurality'.so much emphasis is being placed on '25%'and for the PDP that's dangerous.for once, 2011 is not 2015.a lot has changed.the worry for both PDP and APC should be turnout of their supporters.that's where the difference would be made.
Delta, Rivers,Imo,Lagos, are some states Mr .JONATHAN got more than 1million plus votes.with the exception of lagos.dejavu is inevitable.Jonathan's margins were also huge in YORUBA STATES except OSUN.APC does not have the national spread of the PDP but it does not need it.knowing PDP HAS MORE WAYS TO maneuver through the Constitutional requirements,APC would be more concerned about denying the Incumbent, 'MAJORITY' IN THE FIRST BALLOT.then '25%', becomes useless.APC candidate Mr.Buhari got 25% IN 16 STATES in 2011,all in the North.in 2015,VALENTINE'S DAY, He's guarateed 25% in seven Southern states, even in ONDO AND EKITI states where PDP governors hold sway.in AMAECHI'S Rivers,Mr. Jonathan's 2011 margin would shrink but not by much.its more difficult for Mr. BUHARI TO Meet the 25% requirement than Mr. Jonathan. 16+7=23,NOT 24.MR.BUHARI'S hope is then a majority in the first ballot.anything short of that is defeat.
Much has been made about the NORTH-WEST&SOUTH-WEST electoral bank but the significance of Boko haram-ravaged North-East is more important for the APC as APC MIGHT BE VICTORS IN YORUBA STATES though by slim margins(EXCEPT osun) which does not bode well for the 'majority'calculations.a low turn out in the north-east region would spell doom if APC HOPES TO NEUTRALISE Mr Jonathan's advantage in North -Central.neither APC nor PDP is sure of huge victory in ONDO or EKITI.Mimiko's influence would count in ONDO but it would be by a tiny margin. for the APC, The battle for 'MAJORITY' IN THE FIRST BALLOT, OR PLURALITY is then a do or die thing as its the only path for victory.APC's strategists have a huge task in convincing north-east BUHARI FANS to shun the fear of boko-haram attacks and come out to vote. how Mr. BUHARI'S reverrence and cult- figure status would allay such fears would manifest on Valentine's day.

Having been able to see past the poor writing style/prose used by the OP, I think the original post is actually a very intelligent piece of work.

Well done, OP @LOIUSXIV.

(I have quoted it [the original post] verbatim so it should be easy for me to make a reference to it in the future - if necessary.)

P34c3
.....
...

tman14:
Nice observation. I'm beginning to get tired of the way GEJ supporters argue and conclude

abi na? The way they talk all these 'GEJ till 2019' without recourse to intelligent debate really baffles me about the type of graduates our tertiary institution is producing. If you where opportune to be on UK forums during their election, you will marvel at their level of debates which includes situation report of the economy in contrast to how it was before a certain leader took possession of leadership, and also following in the ideology of the candidates,hence, gaining their support (example in 2009, david cameron debated that the immigration laws needed to be tightened, gordon brown believed otherwise,lot of britons had to go for cameron's ideology after much debate). Here in Nigeria, you only hear of ethnic bigotry rantings, most of these people that come on nairaland to say unintelligent stuff like 'GEJ till infinty' are at home, jobless, and feeling insecure.let's put sentiments aside and make intelligent debates.