On The Budget and Crude Forecast


http://www.punchng.com/politics/24-states-wont-pay-salaries-in-2015-afenifere/

Pan-Yoruba association, Afenifere Renewal Group, has warned that given the drop in the price of crude oil, 24 states may not be able to pay salaries next year if the structure of government bureaucracies is not changed.

The group said this in its report on critical review of Nigeria’s economic and political governance in Lagos on Wednesday.

The report, which was signed by the group’s national chairman, Olawale Oshun, added that it was unfortunate that 60 per cent of public expenditure went to the servicing of bureaucracies.

It read, “Nigeria is over-governed with a bloated Federal Government, 36 state government bureaucracies, one FCT administration, and 774 Local Government Areas. When budgets of all these government tiers are collated, more than 60 per cent of all public expenditure in Nigeria goes to service these bureaucracies that consist of less than three per cent of Nigeria’s population.

“This high cost of governance is the reason we cannot fund the delivery of critical infrastructure and social programmes. High cost of governance contributes to high cost of doing business, which, in turn, reduces Nigeria’s competitiveness in the global market.

“Unfortunately, current economic realities show that Nigeria can no longer fund these bureaucracies as some states now owe workers as much as four months’ wages, with no respite in sight. One would not be a Prophet of Doom to say there is a high probability that two-third of states in Nigeria might not be able to pay salaries in 2015. This is another threat to political stability as social vices and malfeasance would increase.”

The group, therefore, recommended that the country went back to the regional system of government as practised in the First Republic or the adoption of the six geo-political zones as federating units.

The group further called for the abolition of the Excess Crude Account and the elimination of importation of refined petroleum products as well as the maximum devolution of powers to the federating units.

The group lamented the marginalisation of the Yoruba under the Goodluck Jonathan administration and wondered why all the heads of government financial organisations were of Igbo extraction.

It said, “Nigerians should be concerned because the 2015 general elections will not replenish the country’s depleted tank of political stability if certain reforms are not pursued as urgently as possible.

“In the absence of socio-political and economic justice, nepotism and ethnocentrism have taken over as the emblem of our presidential politics. For instance, it is difficult not to read meaning to the fact that under the current administration, all economic agencies like the Central Bank of Nigeria, Security and Exchange Commission, Debt Management Office, and Finance Ministry, are headed by experts from one ethnic nationality.”

A Warning on the Economy


http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/news/national-news/192308-afenifere-ojudu-urge-jonathan-to-declare-emergency-on-economy

JUST as the late Yoruba leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo warned the then Alhaji Shehu Shagari government in 1982 that the proverbial ship of the Nigerian nation was approaching the rock, the Afenifere Renewal Group (ARG) and Senator Babafemi Ojudu have raised the alarm that all was not well with the country at present. They said all patriots and stakeholders, especially the presidency should urgently steer the nation away from hitting the rock.

  ARG, the Yoruba socio-political group which gave this timely warning at a news conference in Lagos where it reviewed the state of the Nigerian nation in the last one year, noted that the country from all sectors was facing a major crisis and that the way the leadership and other stakeholders handled it would determine the fate of the country in 2015.

  ARG, in a statement issued by its National Chairman, Olawale Oshun declared “…as 2015 approaches, Nigerians have to be sober because political instability is increasing and major indicators now put Nigeria on “Red Alert”. Indicators show that since 1999 when the country returned to democracy, political stability has been on the decline, contrary to the norm in democratic climes.

  “We are now faced with a depressing economic outlook because of dwindling revenues, corruption, and heavily flawed and extravagant budget. Worse still, divisive politics is now so pervasive that the concept of a free and fair election in 2015 is looking more like a mirage, especially with the way INEC’s rating has plummeted in recent times. How we navigate 2015 elections in the reality of this context will determine the country’s survival.”

  Senator Ojudu who also spoke at the ARG conference, bemoaned the state of the economy which he described as being in comatose and warned that more gloomy days laid ahead for the economy and the ordinary Nigerians except urgent measures were taking to halt the situation.

  Both the ARG and the senator therefore called on President Goodluck Jonathan to declare state of emergency on the economy as recently done by Venezuela; a sister oil producing nation which is also facing the adverse effects of the current vagaries in the international prices of crude oil.

  To kick start the emergency, they urged President Jonathan to without delay cancel the proposal in the 2015 Budget for the procurement of more jets for the presidential fleet.

  The president was advised to take a cue from the British Prime Minister David Cameron who is said to fly only British Airline when on foreign visits.

  Ojudu who accepted that the National Assembly failed in its task to check some of the excesses especially at the presidency which contributed immensely to the sorry state of the economy and the polity in general, however blamed this on his colleagues from the ruling Peoples Democratic Party who were in the majority and who were always ready to protect the presidency even at the collective wellbeing of the country.

  The senator further said that his colleagues from the PDP blinded by the desire to get the party’s ticket to return to the Assembly, were busy doing the biddings of the presidency and the party again at the expense of national interest.

  The group while calling for caution on the part of politicians and other political actors as the country enters the election year noted among others that it was only a no victor no vanquished situation that could save the country.

  “Our proposal therefore is for all stakeholders to work together for a win-win situation that will bring about the reforms outlined in Chapter Five of this report, some of which are: restructuring of the current governance framework to reduce the cost of governance and entrench maximum devolution of powers to federating units with a commensurate revenue allocation formula, transparency and accountability in budget implementation process, abolition of Excess Crude Account, reduction of import load by pursuing development of the real sector and eliminating importation of refined petroleum products.”

On Election and Political Instability.


As the 2015 general elections approach, the Afenifere Renewal Group, ARG, a Yoruba socio-political body, has warned about the looming political instability likely to mar the process.

At a public presentation of their annual report, ‘Nigeria Democratic Governance Report: Curbing Political Instability and Extravagance,’ the ARG said that major indicators ahead of 2015 now put Nigeria on “red alert.”

“We are now faced with a depressing economic outlook because of dwindling revenues, corruption, and heavily flawed and extravagant budget,” said Olawale Oshun, ARG’s National Chairman.

“Worse still, divisive politics is now so pervasive that the concept of a free and fair election in 2015 is looking more like a mirage, especially with the way INEC’s rating has plummeted in recent times.

“How we navigate 2015 elections in the reality of this context will determine the country’s survival.

“Nigerians should be concerned because the 2015 General Elections will not replenish the country’s depleted tank of political stability if certain reforms are not pursued as urgently as possible.”

The ARG’s report, a review of the state of the nation between 2010 and 2014, showed that since 1999 when the country returned to democracy, political and economic stability have been on the decline.

Mr. Oshun said that the country’s presidential politics had been taken over by nepotism and ethnocentrism.

“For instance, it is difficult not to read meaning to the fact that under the current administration, all economic agencies like CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria), SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), DMO (Debt Management Office), AMCON ( Assets Management Company of Nigeria), NSE (Nigerian Stock Exchange), SWF (Sovereign Wealth Fund), and the Finance Ministry are headed by experts from the Igbo ethnic group,” Mr. Oshun said.

In its recommendations, the ARG reiterated its call for a return to the First Republic’s regional structure or adoption of the six geo-political zones as federating units.

“The uncontrollable wastage and rapacious corruption in Federal Government necessitates the reduction of Federal Government’s share in Revenue Allocation Formula to 35 percent, with maximum devolution of powers to the federating units,” the group stated.

“We must warn here, for the umpteenth time, that granting autonomy to local government administrations is counter-productive in a federal state. Remove LGA from revenue sharing and let each federating unit manage as many LGA as it could.

The ARG called for the abolishing of the Excess Crude Account and other “special” accounts as well as for budget implementation to be anchored on accountability and transparency.

“There is no public-compliant mechanism to monitor execution of contracts, which has become a ‘legal’ avenue for corruption because the NASS, in addition to proving inept in its oversight function, is also a willing collaborator.

“The pressure on Naira must be relieved as urgently as possible by reducing useless imports. Ensuring that refineries operate at a level that meets local needs is a critical project that must be pursued by an incoming administration.”

The group also called for a review of the current import and waiver policies in the country which it described as the single biggest threat to local SMEs.

“Once again, this report is the voice of reason, a cry from the wilderness. Will Nigeria listen and be saved? Political stability indicators are almost at zero levels and 2015 General Elections, especially the presidential election, is already laden with potential threats of violence that may be unprecedented in Nigeria’s history.

“Our advice is for the presidency, NASS, and all political parties to meet and agree to an exit strategy that embodies peace and upholds democracy.

“However, whether this advice is heeded or not, the ARG is conscious of the need to initiatives geared towards protecting the Yoruba people and their interest, as other nationality groups in the country are presently doing. Yoruba political and business leaders must now realise that they are more endangered than their counterparts in other nationalities, if the present trend continues.”




http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/174111-2015-general-elections-looking-like-mirage-afenifere-group-warns.html

Follow-up from OPC on 2015 Elections and what to expect.



http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/opc-leader-adams-expresses-fear-over-2015-polls/198051/



The rather tense political atmosphere among the political gladiators ahead of the coming 2015 general election has been described as a situation that calls for great concern among Nigerians.

Leaders of pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group, Odu’a Peoples Congress (OPC), Chief Gani Adams, who expressed the concern yesterday during a chat with journalists at his Palmgrove, Lagos office, also attributed the problems facing the country to former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s inability to conduct an acceptable National Conference.

Adams, who had been relatively silent about political issues in the country lately, said he decided to speak out in the face of the dicey situation ahead of the nation in 2015; because irrespective of who wins the presidential election between President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the possibility of post-election violence is high.

“If Buhari loses the election, the Northern youths may go into violence. And on the other hand, the Niger Delta region is likely to erupt in crisis if President Jonathan loses the election.

“We are in a dicey situation. There is insecurity in the country caused by Boko Haram; the price of crude has fallen in the international market and that is another problem. And at the same time we are faced with an election where the actors are all hoping to win. We are praying that Nigeria would not just break,” he said.
Describing the 2004 prediction of the United States that there is the possibility that the country would break up as “highly spiritual and far more than intelligence gathering,” Adams called on Nigerians to pray that the country does not break and that the prediction does not come into fruition.

Also speaking in the light of a book recently published by Obasanjo, the OPC leader pointed accusing fingers at the former president as regards some of the major problems confronting Nigeria.

“The very cabal that Jonathan complained about was created by Obasanjo. All the problems that are existing in Nigeria today, the foundation was laid by Obasanjo on the grounds that he had the golden opportunity to conduct an acceptable National Conference that should have addressed some fundamental challenges ahead of the 2015 election.

“If he had allowed the Yoruba agenda, we would have had the state police and also there would have been opportunity for independent candidates and many other changes that would have reduced tension now,” he said.

He discarded the rumour that there was plan for an interim government to be headed by Obasanjo, saying “There is no way Obasanjo will come back to rule Nigeria!”

Afenifere Renewal Group is correct to warn Nigeria about hard times ahead. Nigeria,under the PDP,has become a cauldron of greed, myopia and selfishness. The PDP has promoted the most self-serving, most divisive, most destructive and most unconscionable form of politics possible. Something has to be done before Nigeria is destroyed. While I agree with the group's clamour for true fiscal federalism and devolution of power away from the inordinately powerful and corrupt centre I think this is the time all individuals and groups face the primary task at hand which is to assist the replacement of the failed PDP Government that has destroyed Nigeria over 16 years.

The requests of ARG can only be tabled before a new, responsible, pro-people and sincere government fully committed to doing what is best for Nigeria and Nigerians. We all have 16 failed years as conclusive proof that the PDP is incapable of giving Nigeria such a government. ARG, as should be the case for all general or socio-ethnic developmental organisations, should take a decisive stand at this critical junction in our history in relation to the immediate task at hand which is the removal of of a Party that can only thrive when Nigeria is moving backwards. It is too late in the day to be imploring the PDP to give what the Party does not have to give. With an eye on rescuing Nigeria from its progression towards a horrific crash, focus must now be on removing the PDP from power in 6 weeks time. Everyone or group interested in the progress of Nigeria should play their part to make this happen.

Very nice Gbawe, thanks for your observation and input.