As an Igbo from Anambra state who was born and brought up in the North-central, I have experience of the nature of how elections do take place here, and based on the mood of people around here, and people from neighboring states whom I have interacted with, Here is what I think will play out next month during the elections

Kogi State:
Idris Wada is one of the worst governors in Nigeria, the people so hate him that few sympathised with him when he hard a fatal accident December 2012, and the people are waiting for the polls to show him their frustration.
Kogi has been a PDP state since 2003 when Ibro defeated the then incumbent Abubakar Audu who unsurprisingly is the APC leader in the state today. And since then PDP has always found a way to win elections in the state albeit with slight margin though. But now the game have gotten more closer to call. This years election will surely be slightly different. There is no governor ship election so all eye will be in the national/state assembly and presidential polls. Smart Adeyemi is expected to garner votes for PDP in kogi west, but that zone which has predominantly yorubas who are known to hate GEJ may be a factor. All the Muslims in kogi are expected to back GMB, and they make up the greater population. Even a handful of Christian will not vote GEJ. But PDP being the ruling party in the state will most likely buffer what could have been a wide margin victory for GMB. I have not seen a kogite saying he likes GEJ and ppl from kogi may be tribalistic but are not too fanatic about religion especially kogi xtains.

APC 58% PDP 42%

Niger State

This state doeasnt have the features of a middle belt state. They are more like there far north brethren, PDP have been holding sway here since 1999, but surprisingly in 2011 GMB won here convincingly with his hurriedly assembled party CPC. Despite Babangida Aliyu being one of the strongest PDP governors, and fully supporting GEJ then. Now with the mood of the hausa / Fulani and other minority Muslim communities even being more resolved to vote the general, it may get worst for PDP this time around. PDP will surely win the governor ship seat as well as more assembly seat than any other party, but in the Presidential poll, APC will win effortlessly. Again Aliyu though still in PDP is still friends with the G-5 governors and is still not happy with GEJ, so wouldn't worry delivering the state to the opposition. But remember that PDP contestants during the national Assembly elections will influence votes in favour of Gej.as many may vote the same party on the 14th

APC 65% PDP 35%

Plateau State

Simply put, everything about this state is PDP, majority will vote basically along religious line, there are more Christians here, hence more vote for them. There have been endless religious crises in the state for more than a decade now. Although GMB may have many followers in Jos, but other zones in the state will overwhelm his fans. Jonah Jang will surely deliver the state to GEJ. And again former governor Joshua Dariye is contesting for senate under PDP so it going to be easy in Plataea for PDP.

PDP 62% APC 38%

Kwara state.

Two years ago I would have given it completely to PDP.
But with saraki defection together with Governor Ahmed, the pendulum have swung the direct opposite direction. Kwara state have no shaken off the saraki grip on the state. Even in 2011 when the saraki dose is in full dose, with dele belgore in ACN, figthing directly with PDP, GMB still gave a decent showing here, with up to 30%. Now with the Backing of Saraki and the incumbent governor, together with the Yoruba zones voting in line with their western brothers, added with GMBs surprise showing in 2011, it will take a huge upset of a monumental capacity to avoid a landslide for GMB

APC 75% PDP 25%

Benue state:

Here its too close to call, one thing will count in favour of PDP, and that is the killing of Benue indigenes by the Fulani herdsmen. Buhari may not appeal to many of them, then idomas are completely PDP, courtesy of Abba Moro and David Mark, Benue has been a PDP state since time immemorial. And PDP have the incumbent. Although former PDP chairman Barnabas Gemade and former Governor George Akume are contesting for senate with the later having a cult figure in his zone, APC may put up a fight in his zone. Benue state is a Christian state, and most may vote along religion line.

PDP 60% APC 40%

Nassarawa:

In 2011 PDP won the presidential poll with the slightest of margins, then the incumbent Aliyu Akwe doma is bent on achieving his reelection, and also Alhaji Abdulahi Adamu, who is arguably the most powerful politician in the state is still in PDP, but now is in APC. He joined his friend bukola saraki in defecting to APC. And controls totally the Keffi zone of the state. Now also APC have the incumbent in the person of Ta'al(Tanko Almakura), the Eggons and the Mada will most likely vote PDP following their hero Solomon ewuga. PDP governorship candidate Yusuf Agabi is relatively unknown but based on the not too convincing showing of almakura, Agabi will put up a fight.but will lose. I think most non Christians will vote GMB. While most christians including the igbos and southsoutherners residing here will most likely not vote as they will be afraid to vote.

APC 60% PDP 40%.


Please let's contribute and develope points based on issues . no insults pls.

Your analysis is spot on.I also agree with your percentages.
Where I think it may be a bit closer to call is plateau state.Yes PDP may win here,but what I think it maybe 60-40.There is a sizable "Hausa"population there and one other factor that will see us getting surprising results in this election is that with d measures by INEC, peoples votes would largely count this time around, unlike in d past when state governments devised dubious means to inflate and allocate votes.

Plateua is not for PDP during the Presidential race. They will vote Buhari. The drivers of Buhari votes are different from APC or PDP. He symbolizes trust in governance, saying A doing A.

Plateau is not for PDP during the Presidential elections. They will vote Buhari for President.. The drivers of Buhari votes are different from APC or PDP. He symbolizes trust in governance, saying A doing A. Anybody who thinks this message does not resonate with Tiv the same way it does with Hausa or Fulani is deceiving himself. A significant proportion of people here have one or two relatives in the army. I don't think Jonathan's Muslim Christian division tricks will work here.

Hehehe. I can see the sun rising.
Change is what we want.



I a kogite and many more kogites will vote for the best candidate.


Sai GMB! come Febuhari 2015

I am from Kwara State and i agree totally with your analysis of kwara state. PDP is in total disarray in kwara with too many captains in one boat. You are however too generous to have given PDP 25% of the votes. If PDP score that 25%, i will clap for them.

Adminisher:
Plateau is not for PDP during the Presidential elections. They will vote Buhari for President.. The drivers of Buhari votes are different from APC or PDP. He symbolizes trust in governance, saying A doing A. Anybody who thinks this message does not resonate with Tiv the same way it does with Hausa or Fulani is deceiving himself. A significant proportion of people here have one or two relatives in the army. I don't think Jonathan's Muslim Christian division tricks will work here.

The only thing that will make GMB garner up to 40% votes Platuea state is his supporters in Jos, PDP has grassroot structure accros the state. And with two former governors contesting on the same day as the the presidential polls, PDP will clearly win. And you think religion doesn't play a factor in platuae state? Hmmmn it will play oooo my brother

omoalaro:
I am from Kwara State and i agree totally with your analysis of kwara state. PDP is in total disarray in kwara with too many captains in one boat. You are however too generous to have given PDP 25% of the votes. If PDP score that 25%, i will clap for them.

You are right. Imagine Ajibola as their guber candidate? They will lose everything next month.

doctokwus:
Your analysis is spot on.I also agree with your percentages.
Where I think it may be a bit closer to call is plateau state.Yes PDP may win here,but what I think it maybe 60-40.There is a sizable "Hausa"population there and one other factor that will see us getting surprising results in this election is that with d measures by INEC, peoples votes would largely count this time around, unlike in d past when state governments devised dubious means to inflate and allocate votes.

If your last sentence is possible then. I totally agree with you. And again the southerners that would have voted for GEJ in states like platuae Niger and nassarawa will not come out to vote that day for fear of crises. Many will temporarily return to their villages for "oso election" meaning running home for election. I remember during the fuel subsidy saga, many people throng into the street protesting the sudden increase in price of fuel, I and my younger brother were among the protesters, but once any IBO man sees us they call us aside to scold us on why we shld join in the protest. Igbos in the north are afraid. So most GEJ prospective voters may be in hiding that day

Good and balanced analysis with enough points to buttress his views!

Everything points to GEJ getting the boot after the elections no matter which side you see it.

Sai Buhari

your analysis make sense BT u haven't talked about fct

omoalaro:
I am from Kwara State and i agree totally with your analysis of kwara state. PDP is in total disarray in kwara with too many captains in one boat. You are however too generous to have given PDP 25% of the votes. If PDP score that 25%, i will clap for them.

U are right , kwara will be a landslide for APC. Saraki is too strong tone challenged

Op, u must high on cheap grass. PDP will disgrace APC in Niger

Justbright:
your analysis make sense BT u haven't talked about fct

FCT is not a "state". And its cosmopolitan. The behaviour of the voters is not homogeneous. So I give it 55/45 in favour of GEJ

enigmaotr:
You are right. Imagine Ajibola as their guber candidate? They will lose everything next month.

I have nothing absolutely to assess Ajibola's competence. I was waiting for PDP to put forward Belgore or Prof Oba but they failed.
As it stands, I have no governorship candidate to vote for in kwara.
i will only vote for Buhari in the presidential election. i'm not a party man, i only vote for competence regardless of your party.

meforyou1:
Op, u must high on cheap grass. PDP will disgrace APC in Niger

Lol !!!! GMB disgraced GEJ with a rag-tag CPC with no structure and fund in 2011 in Niger, even with Governor Aliyu fully backing Jonathan, not to talk of now that he is running with a far stronger party and structure, also with Aliyu favouring him.. I think you are joking. APC will trounce GEJ in Niger with the minimum fuss.

meforyou1:
Op, u must high on cheap grass. PDP will disgrace APC in Niger

Yes, as PDP disgraced CPC (A relatively new party) in Niger state in 2011.
For your information, in 2011, PDP scored 31.54% and CPC scored 64.03%

Let me register my name. I am Kofi and we have agreed to...

#KickWadaOut

#KickGEJOut

Come

#FeBuhari14

omoalaro:


Yes, as PDP disgraced CPC (A relatively new party) in Niger state in 2011.
For your information, in 2011, PDP scored 31.54% and CPC scored 64.03%

Don't mind that guy, he is a joker? He just wanted to be heard, I was even too generous to PDP.

Bensonn:


Lol !!!! GMB disgraced GEJ with a rag-tag CPC with no structure and fund in 2011 in Niger, even with Governor Aliyu fully backing Jonathan, not to talk of now that he is running with a far stronger party and structure, also with Aliyu favouring him.. I think you are joking. APC will trounce GEJ in Niger with the minimum fuss.

Ok bet. 500k

san316:
Let me register my name. I am Kofi and we have agreed to...

#KickWadaOut

#KickGEJOut

Come

#FeBuhari14

amen oooo for kogi state election.

meforyou1:
Ok bet. 500k

Lol !!¡
Joker! Do you have up to 50k anywhere as your own?

Bensonn:


Lol !!¡
Joker! Do you have up to 50k anywhere as your own?

Are u game or not since you are so sure. I spent over 50k of my own money today alone. Just know it.

The North Central is still the only region i feel i might get wrong.

i tip GMB to get 55% from the region though. The weak states for APC are Plateau, Benue and Kogi, and if it gets average of 40% from the three, it has done well.

without rigging I see no way Jonathan can win

So Bensonn what's your likely prediction generally in the North Central for the two candidates in percentages?

majority of the people in kogi that will vote gej would be doing that based on religious sentiment....'buhari wants to islamize Nigeria' is their claim....but for wada na sorry case o...even smart adeyemi wey dem youths they stone with pure water....

Booked

I concur with your analysis, but make Benue 50/50 or 55/45 in favour of GMB. I visit my home state very often and jokes apart I've not heard/seen a single person who supports GEJ's re-election.. Most PDP supporters there only support the PDP guber and senatorial candidates but not GEJ for presidency. Though David mark will win the entire Benue south senatorial district for GEJ and the governor will try his best to deliver some votes to, but Benue is too close to call..

BENUE STATE: PDP 65% APC 35%

KOGI STATE: PDP 58% APC 42%

KWARA STATE: APC 67% PDP 34%

NASARAWA STATE: PDP 51% APC 49%

NIGER STATE: PDP 52% APC 48%

PLATEAU STATE: PDP 72% APC 28%

Predictions based on political structures on ground and not media propaganda, rally turnouts and sentiments.

maestroferddi:
BENUE STATE: PDP 65% APC 35%

KOGI STATE: PDP 58% APC 42%

KWARA STATE: APC 67% PDP 34%

NASARAWA STATE: PDP 51% APC 49%

NIGER STATE: PDP 52% APC 48%

PLATEAU STATE: PDP 72% APC 28%

Predictions based on political structures on ground and not media propaganda, rally turnouts and sentiments.

You still dont get it!!!
In 2011:
Benue PDP got 66.31% and CPC got 10.47%

Kogi PDP got 71.17% and CPC got 23.53%

Kwara PDP got 64.68% and CPC got 20.16%

Nasarawa PDP got 58.89% and CPC got 40.08%

Niger PDP got 31.54% and CPC got 64.03%

Plateau PDP got 72.98% and CPC got 25.27%

These are the results when GEJ had so much going for him, Big politicians, religious and ethnic sentiments and so much goodwill.
Can he repeat these same results in these states in 2015?

Analysis looks fair