As 2015 presidential election campaign reaches its crescendo, i look at possible scenarios in each state and came up with the projections attached.
1. I have assumed percentage scores for each candidates of the PDP and APC based on my observations of recent political events in each state.
2. I have used current voters registration figures released by INEC.
3. I have used PVC collection figures as released by INEC as at 7th January, 2015.
4. I have assumed voter turn out to be equal to the percentage PVC collected.
5. I have been as apolitical as possible.
I have come up with a result showing a very tight race between the two candidates of the PDP and the APC, which ended up with a narrow win for the APC candidate.

Op in your dream. Keep the pipe dream alive. He go do u voooooom for eye negating those kangeroon projection of urs

JudismphD:
Op in your dream. Keep the pipe dream alive. He go do u voooooom for eye negating those kangeroon projection of urs

Why not bring out your own projections. This is mine.
I want only positive contributions please.

Not bad.Quite intrigued that despite d good margins u gave pdp in states like edo,lagos and d ss and se states,d margin of victory of apc is still about 5m.
It just buttresses all d facts on the ground that as long as d elections hold with the voter population in d staes as given by INEC,PDP just cannot win this election!
Even if it decides to rig with d same total numb of voters and giving itself liberal margins in its strongholds,it just doesn't have d numbers to win.
The only way pdp can win this election is if it can invent electorate numbers far above that published by inec,but of course that is a sure recipee for d kind of crisis,d outcome of which nobody can predict.

Nice! I see the APC doing better tho.

If the PDP can mobilize more voters to go get their PVC especially in the southern states, the results can tilt in favour of PDP.
Note the very high percentage of PVC collection in the Northern parts

PVC collection rates as at end of first week of January:

FCT 48.44%

South South 70.8%

South East 65.84%

South West 61.37%

North Central 69.67%

North East 62.01

North West 85.07%

omoalaro:


Why not bring out your own projections. This is mine.
I want only positive contributions please.

just ignore the guy; he's a kid.

doctokwus:
Not bad.Quite intrigued that despite d good margins u gave pdp in states like edo,lagos and d ss and se states,d margin of victory of apc is still about 5m.
It just buttresses all d facts on the ground that as long as d elections hold with the voter population in d staes as given by INEC,PDP just cannot win this election!
Even if it decides to rig with d same total numb of voters and giving itself liberal margins in its strongholds,it just doesn't have d numbers to win.
The only way pdp can win this election is if it can invent electorate numbers far above that published by inec,but of course that is a sure recipee for d kind of crisis,d outcome of which nobody can predict.

i'l hang the portrait picture of gej in my room forever if he allow the election to be free , fair and credible and accept defeat as projected here.

BUHARI HAS WON ALREADY, EVEN EKITI, EDO AND KOGI ARE APC STATES BUT YOU HAVE MISTAKENLY PUT THEM UNDER JONATHAN.

Gogetta:
Nice! I see the APC doing better tho.

more people are going to get their PVC.
#TeamBuhari

Your projection is even too fair to PDP, left for me, all those northern states you awarded 20% vote to PDP can't be so for presidential election.

Op, you did your best. all things being equal, GMB will carry the day come febuhari insha allah

OP let me help you a little. Nasarawa is not different from Plateau. Nasarawa was created out of Old Plateau state. This people are not core Northerners and hate to be labeled as such. Same goes with Niger state where majority are christian Nupes who don't align with core North. What is my point? Historically, Plateau, Nasarawa and Niger have voted for a Christian presidential candidate since 1999 except in the case of Yaradua; whom they chose over Buhari...lesser of two evil. Now Benue? What were you thinking to think APC will win Benue? Never. PDP will win all North Central states. You need to travel to NC and get the mindset, culture and attitude of these people towards core North.

Maku is not stupid to think he can win with Apga platform. He thinks so because he knows his people are not core Northerners and think differently. Remember Solomon Lar won old Plateau with an Igbo party.

Adminisher:
BUHARI HAS WON ALREADY, EVEN EKITI, EDO AND KOGI ARE APC STATES BUT YOU HAVE MISTAKENLY PUT THEM UNDER JONATHAN.

It was deliberate. I tried to be a bit stringent and avoid undue optimism. This way, the worst case scenario would manifest.

Here is another projection that was done few weeks ago

Narrow win for Buhari

Dis is even too generous for PDP
You're giving dem a large margin in Abia, Imo, Rivers, Ebonyi etal
These states are tired and can't wait to kick out PDP

If APC friendly polls can even suggest the elections would be close despite the corruption mantra and the insurgency problems the present government is facing, I would say GEJ has this in the bag.

No need to conjure numbers, Buhari shall be defeated by at least 3mill votes.

You can quote me after the election.

new2020:
OP let me help you a little. Nasarawa is not different from Plateau. Nasarawa was created out of Old Plateau state. This people are not core Northerners and hate to be labeled as such. Same goes with Niger state were majority are christian Nupes who don't align with core North. What is my point? Historically, Plateau, Nasarawa and Niger have voted for a Christian presidential candidate since 1999 except in the case of Yaradua; whom they chose over Buhari...lesser of two evil. Now Benue? What were you thinking to think APC will win Benue? Never. PDP will win all North Central states. You need to travel to NC and get the mindset, culture and attitude of these people towards core North.

Maku is not stupid to think he can win with Apga platform. He thinks so because he knows his people are not core Northerners and think differently. Remember Solomon Lar won old Plateau with an Igbo party.

In 2011, CPC got 64.03% and PDP got 31.54% in Niger state. So to project 70% for APC which is now a bigger and more accepted party and 30% for PDP is not bad in my opinion.
same pattern for Nasarawa CPC got 40.08% while PDP got 58.89%. And same goes for Plateau where CPC scored 25.27% and PDP scored 72.98%.

new2020:
OP let me help you a little. Nasarawa is not different from Plateau. Nasarawa was created out of Old Plateau state. This people are not core Northerners and hate to be labeled as such. Same goes with Niger state were majority are christian Nupes who don't align with core North. What is my point? Historically, Plateau, Nasarawa and Niger have voted for a Christian presidential candidate since 1999 except in the case of Yaradua; whom they chose over Buhari...lesser of two evil. Now Benue? What were you thinking to think APC will win Benue? Never. PDP will win all North Central states. You need to travel to NC and get the mindset, culture and attitude of these people towards core North.

Maku is not stupid to think he can win with Apga platform. He thinks so because he knows his people are not core Northerners and think differently. Remember Solomon Lar won old Plateau with an Igbo party.

What is driving votes in the Middle Belt is not the old fear of the core north alone. The Buhari name is carrying a lot of votes just by itself. Please travel to the middle belt as well and get the attitudes to the Buhari name.

Adminisher:


What is driving votes in the Middle Belt is not the old fear of the core north alone. The Buhari name is carrying a lot of votes just by itself. Please travel to the middle belt as well and get the attitudes to the Buhari name.

Yes, I agree with you on this.
Take Benue for example, the dynamic is changing with the defection of Otom and Gemade. The inability of the government to pay salaries for some months now will surely have effects on the ability of PDP to win the state. If you ask me, i think 2 senatorial seats are likely going to be won by the APC.

abujub:
Op, you did your best. all things being equal, GMB will carry the day come febuhari insha allah

This is a popular wish if the momentum is sustained.

PDP can find a way of reducing APC's votes in the north east. Either by total cancellation of Election in the region or a substantial part thereof using present security situation as an excuse.

I have not gotten my PVC yet

simplistical:
I have not gotten my PVC yet

Please do. It is important that your voice is heard.

new2020:
OP let me help you a little. Nasarawa is not different from Plateau. Nasarawa was created out of Old Plateau state. This people are not core Northerners and hate to be labeled as such. Same goes with Niger state where majority are christian Nupes who don't align with core North. What is my point? Historically, Plateau, Nasarawa and Niger have voted for a Christian presidential candidate since 1999 except in the case of Yaradua; whom they chose over Buhari...lesser of two evil. Now Benue? What were you thinking to think APC will win Benue? Never. PDP will win all North Central states. You need to travel to NC and get the mindset, culture and attitude of these people towards core North.

Maku is not stupid to think he can win with Apga platform. He thinks so because he knows his people are not core Northerners and think differently. Remember Solomon Lar won old Plateau with an Igbo party.

Did u say majority in Niger are christian Nupes? Wrong! As it stands, Kwara, Niger, Nasarawa are safe for APC. Buhari won Niger and Nasarawa in 2011. Kwara is now an APC state. Also Kogites are disenchanted with the PDP and so the APC might just nick it. Even Benue isn't sure for the PDP, it's gonna be close. The only sure state is Plateau. Take this from a core middle-beltan and one who schooled in Nasarawa State.

Information available to 247ureports.com obtained through competent sources knowledgeable of the activities inside the executive offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission [INEC] indicates that the INEC executive team are operating under significant distress that may disrupt the smooth conduct of the upcoming 2015 general elections. The INEC Chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega and the eleven national commissioners including the Directors are at daggers-drawn over unresolved issues that threatens disenfranchisement of select geopolitical regions.



At the center of the brewing quarrel is what appears to be a growing suspicion from some of the Commissioners and Directors of southern extraction towards the INEC Chairman and the other Commissioners of northern extraction. The suspicion, according to one of the Commissioners who spoke to our reporter, is principally based on Professor Jega’s unexplained eagerness to adopt policies favorable to the expansion of the northern geopolitical region’s voting strength. The commissioner pointed to the botched attempt by Prof Jega’s at arbitrarily increasing the polling units in the geopolitical regions of the north. “We had to fight the Chairman to the point of shouting match”, explained the Commissioner who continued that the Chairman seemed “determined to increase the polling units, and would not listen to any of us at the several closed door meetings. Instead he told us that only a court decision will stop him from increasing the polling units”.


The INEC Chairman was unable to deliver on his arbitrary quest. After a month of internal struggles with his lieutenants, the INEC Chairman dropped the idea reluctantly and grudgingly. Prof Jega, as a result of his inability to carry out his agenda decided to shutout the protesting Commissioners responsible to faulting the agenda. “He stopped talking to them [commissioners from the south]”. The relationship among the commissioners took a regional face with the southern commissioners suspicious of the northern commissioners who appear to have formed a click with the Chairman – along religious lines.

The northern commissioners including the Chairman – are seven [7] in number while the southern commissioners are only five [5].

The cold relationship worsened with the commencement of the distribution of the permanent voters card [PVC]. The distribution, according to the commissioner led to near physical confrontation between one of Jega’s close ally, Dr. Mohammad Wali [Chairman of Tender’s Board] from Sokoto and one of the commissioners from the south. It was revealed that the ‘shouting-match’ ensued as the modalities for the distribution by the INEC was marshalled out to the agents on the field – instructing that the PVCs should be delivered to the various INEC offices at the Local Government Area headquarters for the registered voters to pick up/collect – with the presentation of a valid identification card. The southern commissioner discovered that the rules for the distribution for the PVCs were different for the northern geopolitical regions – the rules were relaxed to enable easy distribution of the PVCs to the populace.

According to the commissioner, the PVCs dispatched to Gombe, Kebbi, Zamfara, Bauchi, Jigawa, Sokoto, Yobe, Kano, Plateau, Nasarawa, Katsina and Kaduna [12 states] were accompanied by an agent of Dr. Wali. The PVCs were not delivered to the INEC officer at the local government headquarters – rather it was registered at the INEC office at the local government headquarters and then delivered to the local chiefs and local Imams to complete the distribution to the masses. The PVCs were then recorded as having been collected by registered voters. As at January 7, 2015, INEC data showed that 83% of the registered voters in the 12 states have collected their PVCs. [See table below]



In the remainder of the States where the PVCs were delivered/dumped at the INEC office at the local government headquarters for onward distribution – a much lower percentage of PVCs collected were reported. In Lagos, Edo, Abuja, Enugu, Anambra, Ogun, Oyo and Ondo, only 57% of the PVCs have been collected. [See table below]



When the commissioners and directors got wind of the development and what appeared a structured discrepancy on the part of the INEC Chairman and the commissioners working in cohorts with him, they cried foul. Some of the commissioners took their frustrations to the desk of the President through alternate means – warning the President that ‘something was eerie’ in the manner the INEC chairman was readying for the February 14 polls. According to the source, the group of concerned officers within the INEC were successful in getting their concerns across to the presidency. “The president was shocked and visibly angry in utter disbelief” said the source who continued that the president then ordered for an immediate update on the status of PVC distribution. “What he saw confirmed what the commissioners had told him”.

The commissioner went on to state that it was the concerned commissioners who advised the President to consider seeking for a postponement of the election date from February 14 to sometime in April – without subverting existing electoral laws. The commissioner claimed that they advised the President to seek for shift in date in order to properly distribute the PVCs in a fashion that would ensure that up to 90% of the PVCs are distributed to the registered voter. Presently, only 71% of the PVCs have been collected nationwide. Presently, 15.6million registered voters are yet to collect their PVCs.

Meanwhile, Jega remains adamant that the date of February 14 will not be moved. In a statement to Journalists on January 23, he indicated that the PVC distribution will continue till the eve of the presidential election. The INEC Chairman expressed worry over the attitude of many eligible voters who have failed to show up to collect their voters card noting that the Commission should not be blamed when voters fail to collect their PVCs. “Yes we can even allow for the distribution of PVCs up to the eve of election day which is February 13 2015 but it will be good for voters to come and collect their PVC as soon as possible”.

Jega’s insistence comes against suggestions from the security service chiefs and the national security adviser – over the slow pace of PVC distribution and its implications to national security. His insistence has become a point of concern to many within the security circles who had once viewed Prof Jega as an upright incorruptible personality who was expected to understand the sensitive and volatile political climate in the country presently. A retired service chief who shared his concern with 247ureports.com did not shy away from labeling the body language of Jega and his refusal to level the playing field across all geopolitical regions as “highly tribalistic and unbecoming of a man like him”

- See more at: http://247nigerianewsupdate.co/trouble-in-inec-jega-at-war-with-commissioners-directors/#sthash.pMYmJ2Lb.dpuf