kokosheen:


thanks.. made my work easier

we currently don't produce CNGs though..

Ovamboland:


Yes it is produced by Green Fuel in Sango-Otta Ogun state, mentioned that several times in earlier post

Ovamboland:


It is obvious in your submission that you have allowed your preference or dislike for a certain candidates becloud your professional judgment in this matter. Your statements about conceptual FEED etc. show that you’re exposed to how engineering projects are conducted. To be honest there is hardly any engineering judgment or decision that is all positive and gives only advantages without certain inherent drawbacks. The expertise is to make optimum judgment that best tackles the peculiar local problems and sideline or solve as many problems as possible not all. Some of these problems in the Nigerian context include:
1. Lack of adequate gas delivery framework to most parts of the country
2. Failure of government to guarantee safety of the existing long distance pipelines
3. Dearth of local maintenance capability for maintenance of the huge gas turbines in large IPPs as opposed to comparatively efficient Gas engines (reciprocating) that can be deployed in the small IPP’s
4. Long gestation period to realize the huge power projects 3 – 5 years (many 200MW + projects initiated and started under OBJ before 2007 are still uncompleted 7 years after) as opposed to about 1 year for small projects construction of which can be given to several contractors simultaneously as required technical input is far lower.
5. The time to install and rig high tension power lines cost of huge pylons, heavy duty switch gears, transformers, sub-stations 33,000 KVA to 11,000 KVA etc
In the light of the above, the novelty of the idea to take for instance 100 small towns for whom 10MW will be a miracle off the grid and concentrate production from huge plants like Egbin to Lagos and nearby all within 1 year.
The debate should be about the relative cost of generation per KW.h as opposed to the cost of generation in large plants and transmission cost. Also consider the gestation period of each project, why consign millions of Nigerians to 2 -3 more years of darkness while waiting for gas pipelines and grid transmission? You think darkness is cheaper than a bit more expensive power? The mega projects must go on but you can leap frog development like people who mean business. By the time the grid power is available some towns might have grown beyond the token 10MW and need more power with investments in processing agricultural produce, meat packing, frozen food which is non-existent at this time. Private investors might even establish plants and sell power if the government develops the gas delivery infrastructure utilizing railway and trucking in complementary fashion.
A friend who owns and runs a factory told me his monthly Diesel cost topped 3 million monthly until shell gas pipeline ran close to his factory. Now he spends about 800,000 naira monthly purchasing same power from IPP’s with his Diesel gen only as occasional back-up.
Off-grid power generation is the new direction in power systems worldwide with the development of micro-turbines that individuals can generate power in their home cheaply. This is not feasible now in Nigeria as the infrastructure for gas delivery in homes is absent.

The possibilities are endless if you open your mind, leave your high horse and leave blind criticism of a man who has a plan as opposed to support for one who is yet to articulate any plan.

kokosheen:


you don't even know the difference between CNG & LPG and you say you know a bit? Haba, not everyone on this forum is a novice you know!!!

kokosheen:


thats interesting.. skipped to the last post. will re-read.

Ovamboland:


I am really glad this thread though not mine has really interested you.

I don't have all the actual answers to your questions but i i have cited the case of my friend who owns an runs a factory with his report of huge savings when gas was available close to his factory.

I agree there is[b] significant cost associated with trucking CNG[/b] but that can be somewhat reduced by savings from need for more high tension cables and sub-stations. Just key in to the existing distribution network in the town with maybe minor modifications.

Currently if you have observed several Green fuel CNG trucks with 8 long bottles can be seen on Lagos-Ibadan expressway delivering CNG from Sango –Otta to some factories in Ibadan. If it is not more cost effective than diesel they will go to the extent of trucking it in all the way.

I have done calculation in the past about the consumption of different size of gas generators and the capacity of each CNG truck, I will furnish it here when I can find it.

With serious governance and proper monitoring of the pipelines, maybe the lines can be extended from Sagamu junction to Ibadan, from Bonny to PH – Aba- Enugu and Uyo- Calabar to Obudu – Jalingo. Then the distance covered by the trucks can be reduced as the compression plants can be established at the farthest reach of the pipelines. By the time the pipelines reach the Northern towns trucking will only be necessary at even shorter distance to towns away from the pipeline route. If anything happens to the grid, those towns will not be without power at all as they can generate off-grid and consume locally. The micro plants will also be useful to meet peaking demands.

I repeat it is more expensive to keep those people in the said 100 towns without power for the next 3 - 5 years while waiting to realize the mega plants, heavy duty transmission and pipeline they keep saying today is prone to vandalisation.

J12:
@Op please change his name to Osinbajo from Asinbajo

Anyways, it is no longer news that the APC presidential team is made up of two ignorant old men.

1. First of all, the APC manifesto looks like a love letter. It is utterly baseless and filled with bogus promises. BusinessDay calculated how much it would cost to implement the budget and it amounted to 53 trillion in the next four years. The APC "technocrats" have not told us where the money would come from. In one of his columns, Tinubu suggested that the APC will print money to implement their programs - that means, the APC wants to print about 20 trillion naira over the next four years. . .

2. Buhari said he will stabilise crude oil prices - another bogus and jocular statement that reeks of ignorance and mental instability

3. Buhari said he will a refinery in Lagos - Dangote's refinery in Lagos will begin operations in 2017.

4. Buhari wants to bring back Nigeria airways under a federal government management - another bad idea judging from history


Buhari and Osinbajo are out of touch with globalization and current economic, financial and government practices.


Voting for them will be a very big mistake

pheliciti:
OP,
You could have made your points without attacking the person or his religious predilection. Unnecessary abuse diverts from a good discussion.

I'm not an energy expert but i consume energy and therefore follow the trends in the sector, trends which points to fallacies in your post.

1. First point of correction is that Prof gave the modular plant option as a short term fix. That is never meant to be the long term solution to energy problem.

2. He always states clearly that the gas infrastructure is the biggest factor and that would take time to fix but the modular option is one of the alternatives whilst work goes on on the gas infrastructure

3. The modular system, clearly is for captive areas i.e. industrial parks to sustain SMEs mainly. You should listen to him again without any prejudice.

4. About modularity, it is working in Lagos and i have also seen it work in countries like Lebanon, with acute energy shortages like ours. Note again that these are short term palliatives

5. On the Prof himself, from a personal assessment over time, i formed the view that he is one of the most brilliant Nigerians around. At a certain level of experience in professional life, functional skills give way to powers of analysis and visioning. Hence, an engineer will contribute meaningfully to discussions on medicine on the peripheral and likewise a lawyer can discuss energy. Point out the areas of disagreement and do not ask anybody to keep quiet- that is intelluctally churlish.
Don't forget that the first IPP in Nigeria was done when a lawyer, late Bola Ige (SAN) was Minister of Power, albeit the project was carried out by Lagos State governed then by an accountant.
Please rest assured that the energy problems we have are not borne out of lack of engineers- the Power Reform Roadmap will show you there is a plan. However, the main problem is the lack of execution skill or will which can be bridged when we have serious people in govt.

A pointer, or poser to you is that, if we are currently doing well on Power, how come we are still tottering on the verge of 4,500 MW when as of August 2010, the date of the Power Reform Roadmap we were generating about the same 4,500 MW? Please read the document and confirm for yourself.

Why then inspite of the clear Roadmap, have we not been able to add extra MWs for 5 years and we are stuck where the current President met generation or even less?

Ovamboland:


Op your analysis is wrong there is something called CNG (compressed natural gas) supplied by trucks from Sango-otta,Ogun state to factories in Ibadan and to Lagos IPPs in Akute

Such plants are quick to deliver once the basic dsign is done it can be adapted with detailing to different locations and constructed and commissioned in 1 year maximum, imagine towns like Ikire, Umudike, Kotangora, Aramoko, having 10MW plants each with 320Bn naira only, 100 small towns will have constant power so farmers, artisans, and produce processing can be started without waiting for laying expensive and time consuming pipelines and high tension cables and step down transformers.

The professors idea is actually a brillant quick fix to provide power quickly country wide while waiting for the natural gas pipeline reaches the towns and then you can such town off truck supply and shorten the CNG transport distance by compressing gas at the nearest reach of the pipeline. This can continue until the national grid pipeline network reaches at least the towns and cities and the cost of compression and trucking will stop. This will be far cheaper than petrol and diesel generator we currently depend on.

I should know because i prepared a technical bid for the design and construction one of the Lagos IPPs.

As regards the cost, a small plant will cost a bit more than a larger plant simply because of economy of scale, simple economics, but in the context of the decentralized plan, you will make up from savings on transmission cost over long distances, heavy duty switches, circuit breakers and transformers. And minister of power just this week announced that he needs $2Billion to generate 1 MW!!!

Always do your research very well before you riducle yourself in a public forum

netotse:
Let's discuss gas. The price of gas-to- power was earlier increased from $0.5 cents per mcf to $1 in 2010. It was further increased to $1.50 by 2011 and $3.2 ($2.5 with 0.8 cents transportaton charge) from Jan 1 2015. as far back as 2011, the industrial sector was paying close to 3 dollars for gas(more than double the gas to power prices for PHCN plants), as an IOC producing gas, who would you rather sell to? the industries using gas or govt power plants(who would still owe you money, despite the dirt cheap prices). We're not even considering the option of gas flaring o.

It has always been cheaper for the oil companies to flare gas than develop the infrastructure to clean, compress and transport it for use locally because of the tariffs,Then we now have LNG (which BTW is in the region of $10 per mmscf). So before govt woke up there was very little incentive for the oil companies to supply gas to the local sector, what we're seeing is a govt that is trying to get these companies to invest in the sector with their own money. This necessitated the increasing of gas prices which will always mean an increasing in electricity tariffs since fuels are a passthrough in power generation. The unions and civil society have fought govt at every step of the way.
Now, at $3.30 per mmscf, it's still some 25% cheaper for power plants to buy gas than it is for industries (such as your friend in Sango) and so some companies will still avoid giving the gencos gas, do you know what govt did? they put in place something called the domestic supply obligation, making it compulsory for all holders of oil licenses to supply a certain amount of gas to the power sector before they can supply other sectors. The gas story is really complicated but I hope you can see the picture I'm trying to paint for you? Politicians need to stay away from these areas and let the pros do the talking.

I would recommend you read the power sector roadmap and it's revisions if you want a full picture there's a lot more to things than we see.

temi4fash:


Boss.. Can you help we upcoming engineers and reduce the abbreviations.

Many thanks. .. hope you are good?

pheliciti:
OP,
You could have made your points without attacking the person or his religious predilection. Unnecessary abuse diverts from a good discussion.

I'm not an energy expert but i consume energy and therefore follow the trends in the sector, trends which points to fallacies in your post.

1. First point of correction is that Prof gave the modular plant option as a short term fix. That is never meant to be the long term solution to energy problem.

2. He always states clearly that the gas infrastructure is the biggest factor and that would take time to fix but the modular option is one of the alternatives whilst work goes on on the gas infrastructure

3. The modular system, clearly is for captive areas i.e. industrial parks to sustain SMEs mainly. You should listen to him again without any prejudice.

4. About modularity, it is working in Lagos and i have also seen it work in countries like Lebanon, with acute energy shortages like ours. Note again that these are short term palliatives

5. On the Prof himself, from a personal assessment over time, i formed the view that he is one of the most brilliant Nigerians around. At a certain level of experience in professional life, functional skills give way to powers of analysis and visioning. Hence, an engineer will contribute meaningfully to discussions on medicine on the peripheral and likewise a lawyer can discuss energy. Point out the areas of disagreement and do not ask anybody to keep quiet- that is intelluctally churlish.
Don't forget that the first IPP in Nigeria was done when a lawyer, late Bola Ige (SAN) was Minister of Power, albeit the project was carried out by Lagos State governed then by an accountant.
Please rest assured that the energy problems we have are not borne out of lack of engineers- the Power Reform Roadmap will show you there is a plan. However, the main problem is the lack of execution skill or will which can be bridged when we have serious people in govt.

A pointer, or poser to you is that, if we are currently doing well on Power, how come we are still tottering on the verge of 4,500 MW when as of August 2010, the date of the Power Reform Roadmap we were generating about the same 4,500 MW? Please read the document and confirm for yourself.

Why then inspite of the clear Roadmap, have we not been able to add extra MWs for 5 years and we are stuck where the current President met generation or even less?

bodejohn:
Guys, I think a special thread like this should be encouraged for professionals to discuss without irrational interjections by political apologists.

I mentioned on a thread about a year ago that power generation just like other major infrastructure requires careful planning, time and well thought execution.

From my experience as an electrical engineer, the cost of constant electricity is not cheap, no company in Nigeria can break even providing stable power with the current tariffs but we cannot raise the cost without providing the commodity, we have to strike a balance, if Nigerians want power, they should be ready to pay for it.

Now to the prof's idea, there is a term in engineering called BVOA, best value option analysis. For every engineering challenge, there will be a couple of options, during conceptual and feasibility studies, numbers are assigned to each element in the all the options after which the option with the best value will be designed and installed.

There is technically no bad idea in engineering, it might just have a negative value in the terms of cost and delivery time. The best option for Ibadan might be the worst solution for Abuja or Sokoto.

Scaled down power plants might make some sense if you consider delivery time and less complexity in installation but might be crazy in terms of cost. For example, I have a solar generation plant that serves only my house, but it costs about the same amount to build it verus buying a transformer with accessories and installing for a community of about 300 houses. It might not be completely stupid not to wait for the community to take a year to contribute the needed funds if I want to enjoy uninterrupted power in few weeks.

We need our government to come up with blue prints of how exactly their goals will be met so we can constructively critic it like it has been done by the professionals above rather than a blanket promise of 10,000MW at the beginning of each year.

netotse:


Spot on, the prof's idea is not without merit to be honest, taking generation closer to the load centres but like you ask is it the best value option? I dont think gov't should spend money on that, if private companies can sort out the economics of such ideas, let them do it. Govt should spend it's money on things what would have greater impact.

You're right about tariffs not being able to support investment, that's why govt raised industrial tariffs in Jan but delayed the residential for 6 months. It would have taken something in the region of 10 years at the least to break even at previous tariff levels.

Bros this your solar setup, is it in naija? 300 houses ke? na mansion you dey power? what's the capacity?

kaboninc:


If you were to be appointed as a Minster of Power, or Minister of Energy (I know we do not have that portfolio now) what would you do differently?

Do you agree with the current step being taken by the current holders of that portfolio to overcome these challenges (some of which you appear to have an excellent understanding and knowledge of)?

netotse:


Hey how's things?...no vex, na over excitement cause am, been a while since I've seen people display that much knowledge of the power sector online.

mmscf (called em em scuff) is million standard cubic feet per day, the scf is the common measure of gas in use in naija.
IOC is international oil company.

Any other thing you'd like me to expatiate?

kaboninc:


If you were to be appointed as a Minster of Power, or Minister of Energy (I know we do not have that portfolio now) what would you do differently?

Do you agree with the current step being taken by the current holders of that portfolio to overcome these challenges (some of which you appear to have an excellent understanding and knowledge of)?

J12:


He's an ignorant lawyer. The best hands are with the present government, we want them to continue.

netotse:

Omo, that's a tough one o...I will come out straight and say I don't yet have the depth of knowledge and/or exposure to make such calls wrt doing things differently. One thing though, I would be more strict with the discos on metering and estimated billing, this affects perception a great deal, let the people see there's a difference in ownership of the companies by how you interact with them. That said, this is not the HMPowers scope, it's more of the NERC guy (Sam Amadi) I think the govt did a good job putting him there.
Below is a link to a story by thisday in october where NERC went through some of the discos books and didn't approve of some of the costs they incurred, made me feel we have a regulator that isn't there to just rubber stamp decisions. I'd still like to see better customer care though

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/nerc-orders-11-discos-to-remit-n19bn-to-firs-nelmco/191334/

The minister of power isn't necessarily the most knowledgeable or most important person in the scheme of things, there's the Presidential Action Comittee on Power and the Presidential Task Force, these guys do a lot of the tinkering with policy that has to be done.

I agree with the way govt has gone about things, they've tried to be as transparent as possible in the way they went about this reform (Nnaji sacrificed himself so as not to jeopardize this, woulda preferred him as HMPower).

kaboninc:


I had ask that question going from your opinion about the power industry. With the focus on gas (we have abundance of it) to clean (or green) fuels and other sustainable (and reusable) sources of energy, I see opportunities in the face of chaos, complaints and anger! Don't mind me, just being an opportunist!

Two days ago, I was discussing with someone about the endless opportunities in Nigeria with focus on our power generation. For instance, we've been on this 4.5 GW - 10 GW of electricity production while South Africa is producing close to 160GW if not more, but still, Nigeria is a virgin land and investors are coming in. Well that's by the way for now.

Now on the HM Power, I've been following the policy trends in the industry and other industries too which have one impact or the other on the power industry especially the Finance industry. President Jonathan, through Nnaji and the various Presidential Committees had been resolute and determined to ensure that privatisation of PHCN scale through. Nnaji to the best of my knowledge, saw an opportunity in the sector when his own company was bidding for one of the plants been offered for sale. That eventually led to his exit (conflict of interest). To me, that was the beginning of the 'downward' trend as the vibe, vigour had been diminished. However, I still see some form of determination.

Its evident that the activities of vandals tinkering with transmission lines, power installations, gas pipelines have greatly affected power generation, transmission and distribution. I want to ask you this (I want to believe its true and feasible too). Since we have the gas in the Niger Delta, can there be a solution that is cost effective and highly efficient to transport the gas to other parts of the country especially the far West, East and North in LARGE QUANTITIES? My solutions is like using a large vessel to bring in oil and use the pipeline to transport the oil rather than transporting the oil from source.

I agree with your position on the discos and metering. So many households do not have meters and I have a strong feeling that these discos are really impeding distribution of these meters. The complaint today is that there are not enough meters to go round. There's no fund too to purchase these meters. Now the CBN has come to guarantee funds and it appears government is pushing for the meters to be produced locally. I also still think the regulator should not just look at their books but do an on-site monitoring of these discos. I believe it will be effective and the perception will change to a positive one.

I see government is focusing on other forms of power generation - coal, solar, hydro, etc. That to me is also a step in the right direction. There's something about policy direction. For a long time, we've not had a consistent, committed, focused and determined drive on policy implementation especially on a year-to-year basis and in critical segments of the economy. This government I must commend it is actually taking that bold step. Its my hope that should there be a change in Aso rock, this policy will be sustained and only fine-tuned if need be.

I've learnt a whole lot here especially on the 'modular' model of power generation.

temi4fash:
Seems to me from the on going discuss there are many untapped opportunities in the power sector. ..

@kaboninc

how would they use large vessels when there are no large water ways to the north and some other part of the north.

@netotse

Can u help with a link on the revised power sector reforms and how far gone are we with it. Are making progress not just from the papers but from the perspective of the average nigerian.

netotse:


http://www.nigeriapowerreform.org/index.php?option=com_phocadownload&view=category&id=3&Itemid=357

netotse:


First things first, why are you dashing RSA free capacity na? they have somewhere between 45 and 50GW (let us even dash them 60 sef), nowhere near 160GW.

Transportation is always a major cost in any endeavour, whether farming or trading, etc. Transporting fuels by anything other than a gas pipeline will serve to increase your unit costs case in point, link says supplying our refineries crude by ship would increase refinery costs by $7 per barrel. There isn't yet an economically viable alternative to pipelines (that I'm aware of ).

I agree with you things haven't been quite the same since Nnaji left, I liked the energy/urgency back then. He left so the naysayers wouldn't have anything to say about the reforms, not because anyone could prove any conflict of interest, respect!!! (imagine if he had stubbornly stayed on? we wouldn't have heard the end of it, how govt was condoning corruption and all).

I can see you have a passion for the energy side of things, have you read the roadmaps and revisions? digest and understand them then you can come online and be forming local champion like me

ogb5:
Voting in knowledgeable people is one of the beauty of democracy. This has been well developed by the advanced democracies in the west. To ensure that the nation elects the right people with the right skills, experience and qualifications, politicians are normally grilled on a range of subjects to gauge their understanding of the issues affecting their countries or constituency as the case may be.

In this vein looking at the power policy thrust of the APC as being put forward by no other person than their vice presidential candidate bring to fore some gross deficiency in the policy of the APC on power and shows that professor Osinbajo does not know what power generation entails.

The APC vice has consistently said that their government will improve power supply, the question is how will they do that.
The answer to the question of 'how' was answered by Osinbajo on Tuesday in Ondo during a town hall session. This is what he had to say.

1. They will decentralise power generation.
2. The decentralised power plants will have gas supplied to them by trucks instead of pipelines
3. They will copy the model of power plants already established in Lagos state.

herein lies the ignorance of the professor, also hidden in the rhetoric of the professor is the avenue for looting the treasury.
1. Power generation has been decentralised. Anyone, be it federal government, state government, local government or private companies can now set up power generation plant and sell such produced power as they deem fit. So Osinbajo should tell us something different.

2. Technically you can not supply a power plant like the one in Lagos with gas using trucks. This simply mean the professor and those formulating his policy on power generation knows nothing about power generation. The Lagos plant uses natural gas, that is another theme for methane gas. Industrially methane has 2 means of being transported, by pipelines when the point of use is less than 5,000 km and as liquefied natural gas by ships followed by re gasification when the point of use is more than 5, 000 km from the point of production. The gas supplied by trucks is liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) used for domestic cooking. No country in the world bases her power generation on LPG. Moreover Nigeria does not have the facility to produce adequate LPG to cater for domestic cooking, so using LPG for power generation is out of the question. So Osinbajo promising to supply gas to power plants with trucks is simply talking about something that is not possible.

3. Osinbajo promised to model his modular power plants after the Lagos power plant. Simply put, the Lagos power plant is among the most expensive gas fired power plant in the world. The Ikeja modular power plant has an installed capacity of 10 megawatts and was built at a cost of 3.2 billion Naira. That was equivalent to about 2 billion usd per gigawatt of electricity. Globally the benchmark cost for gas fired power plants is 1 billion usd per gigawatt of electricity, the Ikeja plant cost twice the global benchmark for such plants. By planning to go with the Lagos model, Osinbajo is telling us the will deliver power at twice the global benchmark cost, and at a cost far higher than the current government is delivering power projects. Several gas fired power plants delivered by the current government in the last 4 yrs were delivered at less than 1 . 3 billion usd per gigawatt.

So Osinbajo has no clue about power generation, he is simply spooling out impossible promises to confuse the electorates. Worse part is that he is a pastor that is supposed to stand by the truth, how will he face God at the end of the day after telling blatant lies on the campaign trail.

http://www.punchng.com/news/apc-will-slash-tariffs-on-imported-cars-osinbajo/

kaboninc:


No mind me jare. Thanks.



Yeah I know that transportation is always a major cost to factor in any endeavour. My idea is: can we have a large reservoir built to store gas in strategic locations? The gas reservoir will be fed through network of pipelines from the production locations. The power plants can then be fed via the gas reservoir. That way, the power plants won't be shut down due to low gas supply as the reservoir will act as a temporary storage facility in case there is a leak or sabotage? This may not stop vandalism and sabotage but it sure can reduce the number of break points and ensure availability of gas for a specific duration.

If this idea can be implemented, and electricity can be GUARANTEED, I believe the transportation cost can be worked on even though it will be passed unto the final consumer. I have not done any comparative analysis: transporting gas through pipelines and associated cost to vandalism on one hand and cost of transporting gas to reservoirs, cost of building the reservoir, and another cost of transporting the gas to power plants.



The guy is cooling off with his Geometric power supply around Aba- Ariaria Axis.



I have passion for anything that provides opportunity. Problem is ACTING!

I will take my time to study the roadmaps, revisions, policies, etc etc and thanks for the link on NERC refusing to grant 'approval' to Discos for their outrageous expenses. Them wan transfer the cost to us. Imagine Kaduna Disco, expending N17.8 million... in hosting members of the Senate Committee on Power during an oversight visit to them. . And the yeye Senators will go ahead to collect ESTACODES Stealing from two sources!

I've followed you from the Welcome to My Office Thread.

temi4fash:

sent you a mail...

Dude, CNG's are not used for power generating plants. It is not feasible!