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18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun - Politics - Nairaland

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18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by lalasticlala(m): 5:51pm On Mar 09, 2015
President Goodluck Jonathan has had a mixed campaign so far. He’s received criticism and praise for his administration in the last five years. Will he win this election?

Naij.com’s regular commentator on electoral issues, Adedayo Ademuwagun, has compiled a list of 18 states where Jonathan might lose the polls, and why.

The big day is now just three weeks from now and things are shaping up already. The people rooting for President Jonathan are keenly looking forward to March 28 and anticipating a victory for him.

However, there are some states where the president might lose this election based on recent history and the sociopolitical circumstances in those states. Here are 18 states where this might happen.

1. Niger
Niger is the only state in the north central that Jonathan lost in 2011. He won the other states in the zone. Niger’s mainly Muslim population might be a difficulty for Jonathan again this time.

2. Yobe
Buhari has the upper hand in Yobe and the rest of the north east. Last time Jonathan lost heavily to Buhari in this state. Buhari will likely sweep the votes here this month. It’s a core Muslim state.

3. Gombe
Jonathan lost Gombe to Buhari too in 2011. He probably doesn’t have much chance here this year either. The Muslim majority in the state isn’t leaning in his direction.

4. Borno
Borno has largely been a war zone for some time now. Boko Haram seized parts of the state and imposed a great deal of terror here. The people will probably not be voting for the president because of the way he’s handled the fight against insurgency in their area. Buhari will probably win it here.

5. Bauchi
It was an easy win for Buhari in Bauchi last time where he pocketed 82% of the votes. Jonathan almost certainly has no chance of winning in Bauchi this year or in any state in the north east for that matter.

6. Zamfara
Zamfara is a core Muslim state in the north west. Buhari is king here as he is in the rest of the north west. Last time he cleanly swept this zone and Jonathan lost in all the states including Zamfara. This zone is Jonathan’s worst nightmare.

7. Sokoto
Here’s another mainly Muslim state that will be hard for Jonathan to win. He lost here last time even though the PDP runs things in the state. It’s not likely he can turn around the situation this year.

8. Kebbi
Buhari defeated Jonathan in Kebbi state in 2011. He’s apparently going to win it here again this time. Jonathan’s popularity in the area hasn’t improved pretty much in the last four years.

9. Katsina
This is where Buhari comes from. His victory in this state is indisputable.

10. Kano
Kano is another stronghold of Buhari. It was a walkover for him here in the last election. Now the APC is also in charge in Kano. Jonathan barely has a chance in this state.

11. Kaduna
Jonathan narrowly lost to Buhari here in 2011 even though the state has a Muslim majority. It’s another state where he might lose this month. However, the state is PDP.

12. Jigawa
Buhari beat Jonathan in Jigawa last year and is a lot more popular than the president in this state. But Jonathan might still draw the votes given his party is in charge in the state.

13. Rivers
The governor Rotimi Amaechi is one of Jonathan’s principal enemy and he’s Buhari’s campaign chief. Jonathan knocked out Buhari completely the last time, but this time the APC have the momentum and the equation has changed.

14. Imo
Buhari’s party runs the government in this Igbo state and the governor Rochas Okorocha is highly popular among the masses. He can and will probably influence the voters here in favour of his party’s candidate. A Jonathan victory here is uncertain.

15. Oyo
Jonathan packed the most votes in the west last time, but things have since changed with the APC merger. Now the west is rooting for Buhari, and Oyo is no exception. Jonathan’s popularity has greatly dipped among the Yorubas.

16. Osun
Even last time when Jonathan won in other Yoruba states, he lost in this one. The governor Rauf Aregbesola is so popular in the state and he’s definitely campaigning for his party, the APC. Jonathan virtually has no chance of winning here.

17. Ogun
Ogun is obviously leaning towards Buhari and the APC like the other Yoruba states. Jonathan hasn’t got a strong enough following here to challenge the APC.

18. Lagos
Protesters will predictably pour out on the streets of Lagos if Jonathan happens to win there. He’s the least popular candidate on the ballot among the Lagos people. He beat Buhari in this city the last time, but now it’s a lot harder for him to repeat that feat in this election.


http://www.naij.com/398750-18-states-where-jonathan-might-lose-this-election.html

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Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by Abduletudaye(m): 5:52pm On Mar 09, 2015
This Election should come and be going abeg...abi Lala, wetin you feel?

28 Likes 1 Share

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by macpetrus(m): 5:52pm On Mar 09, 2015
I don't think so!!!

14 Likes 1 Share

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by colossus2: 5:53pm On Mar 09, 2015
Probability

3 Likes

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by ObaOlodo(m): 5:54pm On Mar 09, 2015
Ok... Fingers crossed...

1 Like

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by olas24u(f): 5:55pm On Mar 09, 2015
.

1 Like

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by money121(m): 5:55pm On Mar 09, 2015
grin grin

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by Nobody: 5:56pm On Mar 09, 2015
What of sambisa state

23 Likes 2 Shares

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by Nwogeh: 5:56pm On Mar 09, 2015
Which eva way u do ur anaalysis, God has d final say and believe u me, Goodluck will stilll win.....meanwhile, I'm hapy dt Nigerian democracy has gotten 2a level where we cannot know d winner b4 d election....its a progress. Kudos 2steaf opposition everywher.




fp things....
Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by colossus2: 5:56pm On Mar 09, 2015
What if he rigs in those states undecided

6 Likes

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by gbengalite(m): 5:56pm On Mar 09, 2015
Spot on
Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by sammyj: 5:56pm On Mar 09, 2015
Thumps up to the OP for posting this wonderful write up. I weep for the clueless administration and GEJ because he stands no chance of winning in this state and other state like Benue, Ondo, Ekiti and Kwara state which also attributed to his incompetence to properly manage our common wealth and having to be a corrupt, sentimental and sectional ruler. Come March we will proof a point to our so called rulers both in the executive and Legislative aim of affairs that the power has returned to the people and the will and opinions of the people should come first before any other interests during policy and decision making and come March and May 2015 the change we desire will surely happen even if GEJ wins its not going to be business as usual. God Bless Nigeria !!!

74 Likes 5 Shares

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by Dahjhi: 5:57pm On Mar 09, 2015
Buhari always winning on paper; no wahala; #March28 #WeCantWait #TeamGEJ

71 Likes 5 Shares

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by finestiyke(m): 5:57pm On Mar 09, 2015
Faulty analysis. Jonathan won't lose Imo and Rivers states

155 Likes 10 Shares

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by Ogbuefienubiaka: 5:57pm On Mar 09, 2015
Buhari win in Rivers state? you guys can dream oooo. keep deceiving yourself. GEJ till 2019

150 Likes 7 Shares

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by zuker: 5:57pm On Mar 09, 2015
i totally agree with these assumptions. lets do stats of PVC uptake in these states

4 Likes

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by Nwogeh: 5:57pm On Mar 09, 2015
U neva can tell
Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by OLUJOSHINS(m): 5:57pm On Mar 09, 2015
I believe,

That the results of the march 28 elections will declare an end to the leadership of the shoeless & clueless president.

That my countrymen will put aside their tribal differences & personality attacks to give Buhari & Osinbajo a chance to make Nigeria better.

That may 29 will declare final victory for Team Buhari Osinbajo.

39 Likes 3 Shares

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by dulux07(m): 5:57pm On Mar 09, 2015
Change that MIGHT to WILL, cos he will surely loose

8 Likes

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by uzeba(m): 5:58pm On Mar 09, 2015
for bauchi now...
if u wan burn anybdy house...
jst carry Goodluck/ Sambo poster go paste for d house.
jst a clue as e dey hot...

37 Likes

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by valuedammy(m): 5:58pm On Mar 09, 2015
Buhari is 100% sure of victory in those states you mentioned.

36 Likes 1 Share

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by shadelek(m): 5:58pm On Mar 09, 2015
I don't see Gej loosing in all those states. Guess why? All those states want a literate to give then directions and not the man without waec result. Team gej

38 Likes 4 Shares

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by hamaworld(m): 5:58pm On Mar 09, 2015
I....Jonah go win for only one state.
Bayelsa.
And he is going to also win some state from d Biafra region



Sai buhari

31 Likes 1 Share

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by Emperor100(m): 5:58pm On Mar 09, 2015
All I can say say is..... SAI BUHARI!!!

24 Likes

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by lanruma001: 5:58pm On Mar 09, 2015
Nigeria Jagajaga...The election will be postponed again. Lawless country driven by the rich and the politicians.

4 Likes

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by olas24u(f): 5:58pm On Mar 09, 2015
kayciano:
What of sambisa state

It is not an ojuju forest it use to be a reserve
Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by Nobody: 5:58pm On Mar 09, 2015
May the best candidate win.

5 Likes

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by badmrkt(m): 5:58pm On Mar 09, 2015
GEJ may loss all these states, but WILL be sworn as the PRESIDENT of UNITED NIGERIA come May 29 2015.
Cattle rarers can go kiss shekau's feet if they so pls...

42 Likes 3 Shares

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by Abbeyunique2(m): 5:58pm On Mar 09, 2015
Nice one. Speculation is good but it all bore down to the voters

4 Likes

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by asudan: 5:59pm On Mar 09, 2015
this is a fact but not true. The end justify the means anyway because another June 12 wants to repeat it's self again in 2015. President elect Jonathan Goodluck how is the preparation for 2016 census?

5 Likes 1 Share

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by finestiyke(m): 5:59pm On Mar 09, 2015
I Wonder what cheap drug the OP is on

22 Likes 3 Shares

Re: 18 States Where Jonathan Might Lose This Election - Adedayo Ademuwagun by Goddex: 5:59pm On Mar 09, 2015
[size=15pt]It's laughable to dream about Buhari winning Rivers and Imo [/size] lipsrsealed lipsrsealed lipsrsealed lipsrsealed

74 Likes 5 Shares

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