The Eurasia Group has predicted that General Muhammadu Buhari has a 60 percent probability of beating President Goodluck Jonathan in this month’s election.

Africa practice head and Analyst Philippe de Pontet writes today that while Jonathan was a favourite in the March 28 election, representing a victory for the country’s Christian south, the electoral map is tilting to Buhari in swing regions in the southwest and middle of the country.

Buhari would be a technocrat, and investors could expect business-oriented policies, de Pontet writes, but Eurasia Group remains neutral on Nigeria for the long term, given downside risks to oil production and challenges to policy implementation. He adds:

Nigeria’s Peoples Democratic Party won the south in 2011 elections.

“The election will still be difficult to call, but our expectation of a narrow Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign.

“Chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission. New permanent voting cards and card readers will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide …

While we expected the electoral map to favor Jonathan, current trends suggest that the swing regions may side with Buhari, including the Christian-majority and heavily-populated southwest around Lagos. That could be the decisive demographic factor in the election …”

A local think tank, the Center for Public Policy Alternatives, gives Buhari a 58 percent to 32 percent lead in Lagos state, where Jonathan won the last election. Eurasia Group thinks Jonathan’s approval rating is below the 40 percent threshold under which incumbents have a hard time getting reelected.

“Despite some important military gains against the terror group, Boko Haram in the northeast, and a partial exoneration of its oil revenue management in a recent PWC audit, Jonathan’s Peoples Democratic Party is starting to look desperate. But it is not clear … that Buhari has a strong economic policy orientation. This uncertainty is a chief risk for investors.”

Jonathan is likely to contest an unfavorable outcome, especially a close election, and that could mean protracted violence.

“The reason we aren’t upgrading Nigeria’s outlook to positive, however, rests in the potential for an oil disruption and the likely pushback to Buhari’s policy agenda in a highly polarized political climate.

“His victory is likely to unleash a resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta (Jonathan’s home region) that targets the oil sector.

Former Delta militants have threatened to blow up oil pipelines, platforms, and personnel as in the past when they routinely took up to 500,000 barrels per day offline. There is likely some bluster in their threats …“

http://newmail-ng.com/new/buhari-has-60-percent-edge-over-jonathan-says-eurasia-group/

It is obvious. Buhari will win a free and fair election, but Jonathan and his PDP cohorts might look for a way to rig the elections, or discredit the elections if Buhari wins.

They all know this already,they just dont want to lose hope yet.

Hahahahaha. Only a blind and deluded person would dispute that. That's the indisputable truth right there, one that no amount of 'GEJ till...' can ever change. Even GEJ knows it, hence his bribery spree and canvassing for votes all over the SW. It's game-over, PDP.

Buhari's victory is as certain as death is to man..


BY THE SPECIAL GRACE OF GOD


Haters, go hug transformer...oh sorry, I almost forgot. Use this, this is a faster way to die. That transformer no dey work again.

I don't know d magic gej is going to use,how can he even stand to contest with buhari a 'demi god' he is like awowolo, gej is too small,even with his incumbency power,to contest with buhari.except gej rigg d election as usual.

Lol, These people aren't on ground...APC's defeat will be epic... Very soon Chatham House will Predict landslide for GMB and APC...

barcanista:
Lol, These people aren't on ground...APC's defeat will be epic... Very soon Chatham House will Predict landslide for GMB and APC...

When "Brooking Institute" made the same kind of pronouncement, I guess that's what you said?

chemali:


When "Brooking Institute" made the same kind of pronouncement, I guess that's what you said?

You don't know the amount of goodwill that GEJ has gained since early February. I laugh at you

barcanista:
Lol, These people aren't on ground...APC's defeat will be epic... Very soon Chatham House will Predict landslide for GMB and APC...

Only through rigging. You think people want this mess and sham called PDP? I don't - they stink

Sai baba
GMB/PYO

The truth is that GEJ needs more than a miracle to win this election.. As it stands, he has already accepted defeat in the entire northern region which explains why he doesn't bother campaigning in those areas anymore. . He has the East and South south no doubt, but be rest assured that Rotimi and Oshiomole will deliver up to 30percent for APC in Rivers and Edo which are the most populous states in that region.

Jesusloveyou:
I don't know d magic gej is going to use,how can he even stand to contest with buhari a 'demi god' he is like awowolo, gej is too small,even with his incumbency power,to contest with buhari.except gej rigg d election as usual.

dont u get it, their is no amount of petty rigging that can stop buhari win, unless pdp get rid of jega competly, jega is hell bent on free and fair election, card reader is a must, and the whole terminal leave for him is over, pdp cant touch jega as that would lead to a northern uprising. They can only wait and pray, thats why gej is making emergency trips daily to south west, he was hoping he could manipulate b4, and so relaxed now the reality is here, doyin okupe is now mute, the rest pdp govs are seeking soft landing with gmb. The nw, ne, sw and 60 of nc is down to gmb. Gej would even struglle to get imo, edo, and rivers. How can u change this in rigging without commiting serious blunders that would make him go the luarent gbagbo way. Its game over for gej but only the few pdp can see it

Even if the card reader is not put into use,Jonathan will still loose

GEJ is sure as hell, bound for Otuoke, come May 29.

amakaobiemeka:
dont u get it, their is no amount of petty rigging that can stop buhari win, unless pdp get rid of jega competly, jega is hell bent on free and fair election, card reader is a must, and the whole terminal leave for him is over, pdp cant touch jega as that would lead to a northern uprising. They can only wait and pray, thats why gej is making emergency trips daily to south west, he was hoping he could manipulate b4, and so relaxed now the reality is here, doyin okupe is now mute, the rest pdp govs are seeking soft landing with gmb. The nw, ne, sw and 60 of nc is down to gmb. Gej would even struglle to get imo, edo, and rivers. How can u change this in rigging without commiting serious blunders that would make him go the luarent gbagbo way. Its game over for gej but only the few pdp can see it

brilliant suggestion

The election is Buhari's to lose.

Jonathan is finished

I have said it several times. The maths doesn't add up for GEJ. Two things can keep him. Remove Jega or disqualify GMB. Outside any of these, no way.
But saTANs don't get it. Do they?

This is purely a fiction of the vested interests. If they agree that the election would be won in the"heavily christian populated SW part of LAGOS", they should then factor in the ethnic demographic set of the area in question.

Poor prognosis!!!!

A very balanced report. Not unnecessarily sensational.

Let me tell you why some people are SCARED of the CARD READERS:

In 2011, Jonathan recorded 1,381,357 votes in Imo state. But the total number of voters for guber election in Imo was 750,964.

Please someone fact-check and give me a counter claim with proof! This also happened in several other states!! This is UNACCEPTABLE!! And the card readers WILL prevent this kind of magic!!

They won't be perfect but we MUST say YES TO CARD READERS!!

Anyone stating otherwise hates a free and fair election.

Buhari win GEJ?

Never!!!

amakaobiemeka:
dont u get it, their is no amount of petty rigging that can stop buhari win, unless pdp get rid of jega competly, jega is hell bent on free and fair election, card reader is a must, and the whole terminal leave for him is over, pdp cant touch jega as that would lead to a northern uprising. They can only wait and pray, thats why gej is making emergency trips daily to south west, he was hoping he could manipulate b4, and so relaxed now the reality is here, doyin okupe is now mute, the rest pdp govs are seeking soft landing with gmb. The nw, ne, sw and 60 of nc is down to gmb. Gej would even struglle to get imo, edo, and rivers. How can u change this in rigging without commiting serious blunders that would make him go the luarent gbagbo way. Its game over for gej but only the few pdp can see it

I agree with you, I reside in Imo.

Even if Buhari decides to lose he can't.

Flets:
Buhari win GEJ?

Never!!!

One of the reasons why state governments perform better than the federal government is because several incumbent governors have lost elections over the years and, as a result, state governors know they have to perform well as they can't take their victory at the polls for granted. However, this is not the case at the federal level where an incumbent president has never been defeated in the history of Nigeria. Consequently, Nigerian presidents behave as if they have a God given right to be there and believe they can do what ever they want and still get a second term. This is the reason why a Buhari victory is the best thing that could happen to Nigeria. Not because Buhari is perfect but because it will wake up Nigerians to the realization that the people are the boss of the president in a democracy and they can fire him if he fails to perform well. Secondly, a Buhari and APC victory at the federal level will make future presidents sit up and perform well to improve their chances of being reelected.

Look at how hard Jonathan has been working in the last 6 weeks when he realized he was about to lose the elections. We need to keep all future presidents on their toes, not just in the period leading to the elections, but throughout their 4 year term. The way we vote should reflect how the president has performed over their 4 year term, rather than on sentiments, ethnicity and religion. Do this and Nigeria will become a truly great country that we can all be proud of.

Nothing personal again Jonathan. It is all about Nigeria as an APC victory at the Federal level will take the nation to the next level of development and strengthen our democracy. No developed democratic country has a one-party state or reelects a government that performed poorly in the eyes of the electorate.

dafuturis:
Even if Buhari decides to lose he can't.

My guy you funny o, I couldn't stop laughing!!! Chai Chai!! Daris God o

I thank God,that the formation of APC was a success. Today,PDP is facing an opponent of the same weight category.GEJ is a victim of CHANGE.

Talk of the drunkards! In which way will GMB be better than GEJ? That's a big lie it's not possible. GEJ is our President and Will continue to be.
APC are thieves, frustrated and shameless fools.
Vote GEJ
Vote PDP

OTUOKE IS YOUR RESTING PLACE



14 days to go #Change iscoming