Summary of Results: We earlier reported on the outcome of a comprehensive electoral survey on the Nigerian presidential elections initially slated for February 14th. The elections were then subsequently postponed for a 6 week period, and rescheduled for March 28th, 2015. Given the significant political events that have transpired since the release of our last survey results, we recognized that there was a strong possibility that voter preferences could have shifted in the intervening period. We therefore conducted a new survey that was intended to understand whether there had been any shifts in the presidential preferences of Nigerians within the intervening period.

The new survey was conducted from March 14th to March 25th. The Survey Platform utilized was Survey MonkeyTM. A detailed overview of the survey methodology is described at the end of this paper. The survey questionnaire comprised of 42 questions covering the following topics: (a) demographic questions covering gender, educational attainment, income, region of origin, place of domicile and location at which voter’s registration was done (b) 2011 electoral choices (c) 2015 voting intent (d) respondents’ political views and (e) motivating factors for the choice of Presidential candidate.

As with our earlier survey analysis, we reiterate that a critical challenge that an online-based poll offers is the possibility that results can be skewed due to an over-representation of respondents from certain regions in the sample population. This potential bias can be controlled for, by analyzing the results on a regional basis using the regions where respondents registered for their voter cards as the filter.

Given that the detailed 42 item survey allowed us to establish the region in which respondents registered to vote, and by extension where they would be voting, it was possible to develop a detailed profile of voting behavior by region. This enabled us to develop insights into the likely scenarios that will evolve by region, allowing us to ensure that a high response in certain parts of the country did not unduly skew the predicted outcomes. Our ability to evaluate voter behavior on a regional basis also allowed the determination of the potential impact that low voter turnout or outright vote cancellation in the North Eastern part of the country might have on electoral outcomes. All analyses relevant to the elections were carried out only with respondents that were domiciled in Nigeria, have voter cards and indicated that they would be voting in the 2015 elections. The different sample sizes of respondents from the various regions implied that the associated confidence interval for the various regions were different.

[/b]Projected Outcomes[b]

The survey emphatically confirmed that Muhammadu Buhari is on track to win the 2015 Presidential elections with about 32.3 million total votes (see Figure 1), while Goodluck Jonathan will obtain about 7.7 million votes. The combined tally for the two candidates will average about 40 million votes. We have maintained our assumption that the voter turnout will be about 58.1%, which is the average of the voter turnout percentages obtained in the last 4 elections held in the 4th republic (53.7% in 2011, 57.5% in 2007, 69.1% in 2003 and 52.3% in 1999).

Based on the survey results, we predict that Goodluck Jonathan is unlikely to win outright in any geo-political zone. While we reported in our last survey that Jonathan would win the South East (65%) and South South (71%) geo-political zones, the new survey results indicate that he will likely lose to Buhari in the two regions winning only about 42% of the votes in the South East and 38% in his own region, the South South. We project that Muhammadu Buhari is on track to win in the North East (83% of the votes, confidence interval 95±12%), North West (95% of the votes, confidence interval 95±8%), North Central (82% of the votes, confidence interval 95±6%), South West (86% of the votes, confidence interval 95±5%), South East (58% of the votes, confidence interval 95±15%) and South South (62% of the votes, confidence interval 95±9%).

Given the significant margins of victory that the analysis projected for Buhari, we were concerned that the sample population might have been skewed towards Buhari supporters. Although this was highly unlikely given that the respondents were randomly solicited from all over Nigeria, we decided to undertake two further tests on the sample population. Firstly, we reviewed the proportion of respondents who indicated that they had voted for Jonathan and Buhari in the 2011 elections, and compared the voter percentages to the reported INEC figures for the outcome of the 2011 elections. 55% of the respondents in this current survey indicated that they had voted for Goodluck Jonathan in the 2011 elections. This is slightly lower than the official INEC voter count from the 2011 elections, which indicated that Jonathan won that race with 61% of the popular vote. 45% of the respondents indicated that they had voted for Buhari in the 2011 elections, versus 33% from the official INEC figures. These results indicated that majority of our respondents had voted for Jonathan in 2011. What this also means in essence is that a survey of this nature would have accurately predicted the outcome of the 2011 presidential race.

Secondly, we also reviewed the voting choices of Jonathan’s 2011 supporters across all regions to understand how their choices in 2015 were impacting the presidential race. Only 34% of respondents who had voted for Jonathan in 2011 indicated that they will be voting for him again in 2015, while the remaining 66% indicated they would be voting for Buhari in the 2015 elections. If 66% of the 22,495,187 (14,846,823) are added to the 12,214,853 votes that Buhari obtained in 2011, the potential Buhari votes would be about 27 million before bringing to the table the 2.1 million votes for Nuhu Ribadu that are now at play, and the slightly higher voter turnout that is expected in 2015. These triangulations enabled a clear picture to begin to emerge on how Buhari could plausibly win the 2015 elections by significant margins.

While a lot of progress has been made in tackling the Boko Haram crisis in the last 5 weeks, we still proceeded to evaluate what the electoral outcomes would be if the lingering Boko Haram crisis in the North East prevented elections from holding in the states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (the BAY States). Our analysis suggests that the complete exclusion of the BAY states from the electoral tally will still result in a victory for Muhammadu Buhari. In the event that voting will not be able to hold in the BAY states, the total expected votes from the North East will reduce from about 5.3 million to 2.6 million votes and the projected national tally will be 30.1 million votes for Muhammadu Buhari versus about 7.2 million votes for Goodluck Jonathan. In either scenario, Buhari will likely win the presidential elections with a convincing majority of the total votes cast.

More>>http://saharareporters.com/2015/03/27/new-survey-confirms-buhari-track-win-presidential-elections-heavy-margins-apc-likely

Jokers and agents of distabilizations!
You will be put to shame tomorrow.

Hahahaha..This is interesting.

This one don pass 'LANDslide' victory, this is 'SEAslide' victory




Sai BUHARI

pls front page o

ascaris:
Jokers and agents of distabilizations!
You will be put to shame tomorrow.

but those fake made in aba harry potter abi wetin they call themselves poll no be darkness agent.

deceive una sef well well.jona is going.

midolian:
Hahahaha..This is interesting.

This one don pass 'LANDslide' victory, this is 'SEAslide' victory




Sai BUHARI

AIRslide victory

.

Say no to fake change
Say yes to jonathan
Say yes to transformation
As ya vote for transformation may ya life be transformed and vice versa
Sharia reporters cum premiumtimes

This is what u wil c on 30th march newspapper headlines...
NEWSPAPERS' HEADLINES ON March 30th
2015.
"Jonathan wins 2nd term with 56% of
votes! Fasola congratulates him, begs
Lagosians to vote for Ambode to continue
his development of Lagos" - THISDAY.
"Jega declares Jonathan elected with 26.4
million votes! APC rejects result" -
VANGUARD.
"Jonathan declared winner!". "This is the
worst election in Nigeria's history" (Lai
Mohammed) - PUNCH.
"PDP in a historic victory!". "Amaechi
flees to Ghana". - PM NEWS.
"This is the most rigged election in the
world, Jega must be arrested and
imprisoned immediately. We are heading
to court" (Tinubu) - THE NATION.
"North sad as INEC declares Jonathan
winner. Sultan urges restraints and peace"
- DAILY INDEPENDENT.
"PDP wins Aso Rock again, 70 senate
seats and 65% of Reps. We are studying
the results (Oshiomhole)" - SUN
NEWSPAPER.
"How Jega rigged the polls for Jonathan . .
." - SAHARA REPORTERS.
ETC, ETC. . .....

SAI BABA SAI BABA SAI Buhari SAI Osinbajo SAI Change, SAI Nigeria , Victory coming for change very soon. Nothing can stop the wind of Change, God bless Nigeria !!!

Click like in support for GMB/PYO or

Share for GEJ/Sambo !!!!!

front page pls

These people and their flawed surveys, that you think Buhari has won on paper does not translate it into reality.

A wise man once said not to count one's chicks before they were hatched. Pay heed o, before you weep tomorrow.

Baba coasting to Asorock with resounding victory

ishiamu:
This is what u wil c on 30th march newspapper headlines...
NEWSPAPERS' HEADLINES ON March 30th
2015.
"Jonathan wins 2nd term with 56% of
votes! Fasola congratulates him, begs
Lagosians to vote for Ambode to continue
his development of Lagos" - THISDAY.
"Jega declares Jonathan elected with 26.4
million votes! APC rejects result" -
VANGUARD.
"Jonathan declared winner!". "This is the
worst election in Nigeria's history" (Lai
Mohammed) - PUNCH.
"PDP in a historic victory!". "Amaechi
flees to Ghana". - PM NEWS.
"This is the most rigged election in the
world, Jega must be arrested and
imprisoned immediately. We are heading
to court" (Tinubu) - THE NATION.
"North sad as INEC declares Jonathan
winner. Sultan urges restraints and peace"
- DAILY INDEPENDENT.
"PDP wins Aso Rock again, 70 senate
seats and 65% of Reps. We are studying
the results (Oshiomhole)" - SUN
NEWSPAPER.
"How Jega rigged the polls for Jonathan . .
." - SAHARA REPORTERS.
ETC, ETC. . .....

Copy cat. You no fit try change am.....stealing other peoples ideas

Dumb survey, dumb researchers. Jonathan with just 7 million votes?
I hope some APCheats don't get heart attack by the time the results start rolling in. North west remains buhari's stronghold. As for other zones, including some n/eastern states (e.g. adamawa, taraba), Jonathan will give a very good account of himself. Middle belt & d south will undoubtedly be for Jonathan. Let those lousy fellow s/westerners who cry more than the bereaved on social media also prepare for a great disappointment. You guys will be surprised that the pattern of 2015 results will not be significantly different from 2011's.

Boko Haram has been a threat in our society
today. Killing the elderly,the children and
those yet to be born. And yet this Government
that we have has done nothing other than
promising us security while our people die.
The so called Boko haram even kidnapped
our girls, yet not a sign of them till this hour.
We chanted #BringBackOurGirls but what we
hear as echo was #BringBackGEJ.
It was someone daughter that was kidnapped,
u never can know if its yours next. That is why
we must say No to any Terrorist act. Say No to
Boko Haram.
Think about the future of your generation,
think about Change.
Vote BuhariOsinbajo and lets get rid of this
terrorist group.
Vote APC
Vote Change.
DEFINITIONS OF STUPIDITY.
Stupidity is When:
1) You Earn less than #30,000 as a graduate
or still searching for job for 3years and still
chant "Gej 4 2019" ARE YOU BORN TO
SUFFER?.
2)You charge your phone with a generator
and come online to type # GEJ 4 2019".DONT
YOU KNOW ELECTRICITY IS YOUR BASIC
RIGHT?
3)You purchase fuel at #87 per litre and
refuse to acknowledge the fact that you have
been cheated "Gej 4 2015". OTHER OIL
COUNTRIES SELL PETROL FOR AS LOW AS
EQUIVALENT TO THEIR PEOPLE
4)You import Goods from abroad at #209 per
dollar instead of atleast #155 per dollar
yet you are a Gejite. IN 1983 1NAIRA WAS
EQUAL TO 1 DOLLAR
5)You support a man who can'refund or give
back your N1000 which you for immigration
job let alone account of missing $20BN..DO
YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR A JOB?
6)You go Church, bus station, mosque,school
boko haram bomb you yet the govt say they
spend N1trillion on security you still dey shout
GEJ 2019 ARE YOU A LEARNER?
7) You are still in school because of the strike
ASSU,ASSUP,FCE, FGCs went you know the
agreement is still not yet fulfilled, You dey
Shout GEJ 2019, YOU WAN REMAIN
UNDERGRADUATE TILL 2020?
Your father is among retirees we still have
not heard anything about pension money
stolen over the one that stole 200million was
asked to pay bail of 200 thousand naira yet
you are SHOUTING GEJ 2019 DO YOU HATE
YOUR FATHER THAT MUCH?
"THAT IS STUPIDITY"
"THERE IS NO LICENCE FOR NONSENSE!
THAT IS WHY #IHAVEDECIDED

sammyjay3:
Boko Haram has been a threat in our society
today. Killing the elderly,the children and
those yet to be born. And yet this Government
that we have has done nothing other than
promising us security while our people die.
The so called Boko haram even kidnapped
our girls, yet not a sign of them till this hour.
We chanted #BringBackOurGirls but what we
hear as echo was #BringBackGEJ.
It was someone daughter that was kidnapped,
u never can know if its yours next. That is why
we must say No to any Terrorist act. Say No to
Boko Haram.
Think about the future of your generation,
think about Change.
Vote BuhariOsinbajo and lets get rid of this
terrorist group.
Vote APC
Vote Change.
DEFINITIONS OF STUPIDITY.
Stupidity is When:
1) You Earn less than #30,000 as a graduate
or still searching for job for 3years and still
chant "Gej 4 2019" ARE YOU BORN TO
SUFFER?.
2)You charge your phone with a generator
and come online to type # GEJ 4 2019".DONT
YOU KNOW ELECTRICITY IS YOUR BASIC
RIGHT?
3)You purchase fuel at #87 per litre and
refuse to acknowledge the fact that you have
been cheated "Gej 4 2015". OTHER OIL
COUNTRIES SELL PETROL FOR AS LOW AS
EQUIVALENT TO THEIR PEOPLE
4)You import Goods from abroad at #209 per
dollar instead of atleast #155 per dollar
yet you are a Gejite. IN 1983 1NAIRA WAS
EQUAL TO 1 DOLLAR
5)You support a man who can'refund or give
back your N1000 which you for immigration
job let alone account of missing $20BN..DO
YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR A JOB?
6)You go Church, bus station, mosque,school
boko haram bomb you yet the govt say they
spend N1trillion on security you still dey shout
GEJ 2019 ARE YOU A LEARNER?
7) You are still in school because of the strike
ASSU,ASSUP,FCE, FGCs went you know the
agreement is still not yet fulfilled, You dey
Shout GEJ 2019, YOU WAN REMAIN
UNDERGRADUATE TILL 2020?
Your father is among retirees we still have
not heard anything about pension money
stolen over the one that stole 200million was
asked to pay bail of 200 thousand naira yet
you are SHOUTING GEJ 2019 DO YOU HATE
YOUR FATHER THAT MUCH?
"THAT IS STUPIDITY"
"THERE IS NO LICENCE FOR NONSENSE!
THAT IS WHY #IHAVEDECIDED

Bravo. God bless you my man. Tell those brainstem supporting the clueless one tomorrow is the D Day. Their suffering and their worst nightmare will be on the way out from tomorrow due to the goodness of overwhelming majority of Nigerians. Time for a change for good.

prof1990:


Copy cat. You no fit try change am.....stealing other peoples ideas

Ok

Sai baba

























APC sak

midolian:
Hahahaha..This is interesting.

This one don pass 'LANDslide' victory, this is 'SEAslide' victory




Sai BUHARI

whooo,whooo. I don hear new grammar SEASLIDE VICTORY.

Me can't stop laughing ooo

U for say jona go win only in balyesa

Sai Buhari

ELECTION 2015
INEC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL
DATE: SATURDAY, 28 MARCH, 2015
TICKET: PVC
KICK OFF: 10:AM
VENUE: ESTADIO DE POLLING BOOT
CAPACITY: 68MILLION
REFEREE: ATTAHIRU JEGA
ASST. REFEREE: JOHN MOMOH, WOLE SOYINKA
CLUBS: PDP FC VS APC FC
DEFENDING CHAMPION: PDP FC

PDP FC FORMATION: 5 3 2
As defending champion; that is their defending formation in the bid to keep the title.

LINE UP:
Patience Jonathan – GK

DEFENCE:
Ngozi Okonjo Iweala
David Mark
Edwin Clark
Godswill Akpabio
Ayo Fayose- Yellow card(1)

MIDFIELDER
Adamu Muazu
Gabriel Suswan
Olusegun Mimiko

STRIKER
Namadi Sambo
Goodluck Jonathan - C

SUBS:
Fani Kayode - Yellow Card(1)
Doyin Okupe (Alias: Papa Ajasco)
Alison Maduekwe
Musiliu Obanikoro
Reuben Abati

COACH - Asari Dokubo


APC FC FORMATION: 4:3:3
They employ a diamond formation with attacking options and prolific strikers leading the attack.

LINE UP:
Rotimi Amaechi - GK

DEFENCE:
Bola Tinubu
Raji Fashola
Rochas Okorocha
John Oyegun

MIDFIELDER:
Abubakar Atiku - On Loan from PDP FC
Aminu Tambuwal - On Loan from PDP FC
Bisi Akande

STRIKER
Adams Oshiomole - Winger
Yemi Osinbajo - On Loan from Redeemed FC
Muhammadu Buhari - C

SUBS:
Kayode Fayemi
Alhaji Lai Mohammed
Rauf Aregbesola
Abike Dabiri
Dr. Bukola Saraki

COACH - Chief Olusegun Obasanjo - Former PDP FC player

Match Commissioner: EU Election Monitoring Group and Observers.

Predict the score correctly and win a trip to Wonderland in Borno State.

I stopped taking the article serious when I read where it said Jonathan will loose south east and south south.. Imbecilic mongrels with their stupid survey..

Based on the survey results, we predict that Goodluck
Jonathan is unlikely to win outright in any geo-political zone.
While we reported in our last survey that Jonathan would
win the South East (65%) and South South (71%) geo-political
zones, the new survey results indicate that he will likely lose
to Buhari in the two regions winning only about 42% of the
votes in the South East and 38% in his own region, the South
South. We project that Muhammadu Buhari is on track to
win in the North East (83% of the votes, confidence interval
95±12%), North West (95% of the votes, confidence interval
95±8%), North Central (82% of the votes, confidence interval
95±6%), South West (86% of the votes, confidence interval
95±5%), South East (58% of the votes, confidence interval
95±15%) and South South (62% of the votes, confidence
interval 95±9%).

>>http://saharareporters.com/2015/03/27/new-survey-confirms-buhari-track-win-presidential-elections-heavy-margins-apc-likely

GEJ till 2019

sherrylo:


whooo,whooo. I don hear new grammar SEASLIDE VICTORY.

lool...winx

thekingsmen:
I stopped taking the article serious when I read where it said Jonathan will loose south east and south south.. Imbecilic mongrels with their stupid survey..

That's d point I stopped reading the article!
Utter rubbish