gists:


The highlighted red fonts is exactly my point. Anything short of that is a loss.

NgeneUkwenu:


I have been shouting it since 2011, I am an Igbo man, and since I became aware of how elections are conducted, I have never seen an Igbo man queue to vote in any Presidential election in South East. What normally happens is that, ballot papers will be taken to a house where all the papers are thumb printed and returned to collation centre! My mother who supports PDP, told me they were simply asked to go home and relax, that jonathan had won.

What the North should do, is simply return the same number of votes to tally with the number of PVC collecte! Anything short of that, I smell danger.

Further Information: This is what PDP will return tomorrow for jonathan form SS/SE

Ebonyi- 600000
Enugu- 850000
Abia- 900000
Rivers (If it is not cancelled)1.5M
Akwa Ibom-1.2M
Delta-1.1M
Imo State -1M
Anambra 1.3M
Bayelsa - 550,000
Edo- 270,000( Card reader)
Cross River-800000

TOTAL=10Million

Unless Buhari Matches this Number in North East/ North West.

NgeneUkwenu:


Another option, is to make sure jonathan doesn't have up to 1 million Votes in NE/NW. while maintaining the current winning formular in Sokoto, Kano, Kaduna and Kastina ( Buhari should have six million comfortably with the reported turn out of 55% in the four states)

dustmalik:

You are one hundred percent right. This scares the shi.t out of me.

gists:

I am not so sure about this formular. The only thing I am sure of is if APC is able to make at least 15m votes in the NW and NE, then maybe we can start celebrating.

sincerenigerian:


So far so good, 20 LGAs results have been released in Kano State. Out of the 20 LGAs results, APC won over 88% of the results so far with total votes from the 20 LGA being a little over 1 million votes.

There are 48 LGAs in Kano State. We have 28 more LGAs results that have not been collated yet.

In Katsina, there are 35 LGAs and results have only come in from few LGAs in Kano.

The people in the North know what is going on too. As you can see, they have not released up to 10% of votes NW and NE.

I am hopeful of Buhari pulling this off.

NgeneUkwenu:


I have been shouting it since 2011, I am an Igbo person, and since I became aware of how elections are conducted, I have never seen an Igbo man queue to vote in any Presidential election in South East. What normally happens is that, ballot papers will be taken to a house where all the papers are thumb printed and returned to collation centre! My mother who supports PDP, told me they were simply asked to go home and relax, that jonathan had won.

What the North should do, is simply return the same number of votes to tally with the number of PVC collecte! Anything short of that, I smell danger.

Further Information: This is what PDP will return tomorrow for jonathan form SS/SE

Ebonyi- 600000
Enugu- 850000
Abia- 900000
Rivers (If it is not cancelled)1.5M
Akwa Ibom-1.2M
Delta-1.1M
Imo State -1M
Anambra 1.3M
Bayelsa - 550,000
Edo- 270,000( Card reader)
Cross River-800000

TOTAL=10Million

Unless Buhari Matches this Number in North East/ North West.

sincerenigerian:


So far so good, 20 LGAs results have been released in Kano State. Out of the 20 LGAs results, APC won over 88% of the results so far with total votes from the 20 LGA being a little over 1 million votes.

There are 48 LGAs in Kano State. We have 28 more LGAs results that have not been collated yet.

In Katsina, there are 35 LGAs and results have only come in from few LGAs in Kano.

The people in the North know what is going on too. As you can see, they have not released up to 10% of votes NW and NE.

I am hopeful of Buhari pulling this off.

gists:
What is wrong with my SW people with this ridiculous 48% voters turn-out? Just wait for SE results and see 99% turn-out. That will be the difference between who wins this election.
I just pray the North have better voters turn-out

raumdeuter:


If Enugu, plus Rvers and Delta fully utilize their 1.2 + 2 + 2 m PVC, whats stopping Kano, Sokoto and Katsina from utilizing the 4m + 3m + 2m PVC?

Its a battle between 2 parties each have their own stronghold

APC has the whole NE + NW, PDP has SE + SS

SW and NC are swing states

Even if SE+SS vs NE + NW cancel each other out then the SW marginal wins would make the difference

And we know we are deceiving ourselves if we think SE + SS would cancel out NE + NW

boladeen:

Bros election is not about maths alone. SW states were realy givin PDP a strong hold compared to wat we heard yesday. PDP is coming out wit atleast d required 25% needed votes. I doubt if APC would b able to av such in SE and SS

gists:


I have done this permutations too. And initially, I was a bit confident that nothing is stopping APC. My concern still remains though. SW is the second largest voting block. If the card reader issue caused the low turn-out rate in SW, how are we sure it will not affect NW and NE too? But we know the rigging is already going on in SE. Okorocha is alleged to have torn a result sheet and there are videos of thumb printing in Rivers. Apparently, the CR was not used in SE/SS. That is why I am concerned.

raumdeuter:


Jonathan would definitely have 25% in the SW even if the elections are held 50 times

There was no one who said Jonathan wont get 25% in the SW

If APC doesnt get 25% in SE and SS now tell me how PDP would get 25% in NW and NE

sincerenigerian:


Based on information available to me, Jonathan has secured 25% in Kaduna, Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba, Kwara, Kogi, with 58% so far in Benue and won 66% of the votes in Plateau so far. The other State Jonathan is tilting towards 25% is Jigawa and I am very shocked by that.

boladeen:

Realy d ss and se are genius dey realy cooked up d card reader not functioning .even GEJ sef burns precious 3hrs or so claiming d card reader couldn't acredit him. Now dey allowed dem to use manual accreditation.

raumdeuter:


Kwara Kogi are not in NW or NOT east. Jonathan would definitely get 25% in all NC states.

I concede Jonathan would get 25% in Kaduna and Adamawa plus Taraba

Show me an example of Gombe results that shows Jonathan would get 25%

tomakint:
APC can NEVER win in my Ondo State this I know for sure!

tomakint:
APC can NEVER win in my Ondo State this I know for sure!

tomakint:
APC can NEVER win in my Ondo State this I know for sure!