I came across this spine chilling article on Nigerian Village Square.

If Naija Scatter (Part 1)     
Written by Nafata Bagamuje   
Tuesday, 04 August 2009

IF NAIJA SCATTER (1)

In recent times, two major violent centrifugal forces have emerged to threaten the continued existence of Nigeria as one nation, namely Islamic supremacists in the North and Ijaw insurrectionists in the Niger Delta. As will be shown in this write-up both of these regions – core North and Niger Delta - will also suffer the worst if Nigeria unravels.

Niger Delta

The so-called Niger Delta militancy is largely an Ijaw affair as there are very few if any Ikwerres, Ogonis, Itsekiris or other non-Ijaw Niger Deltans in MEND, NDPVF, Egbesu and other such insurrectionists. In other words, non-Ijaw Niger Deltans are for the most part not interested in the Niger Delta republic Ijaw separatists are fighting for, as the non-Ijaws are also wary of Ijaw aggression and hegemony.
In the unlikely event Nigeria disintegrates, all hell will break loose in the Niger Delta as the non-Ijaws will take up arms to challenge Ijaw hegemony. Rival ethnic militias will tear at each other and the region will become embroiled in a protracted civil war. This is not at all farfetched scare-mongering; just a few years ago Itsekiris, Ijaws and Urhobos were killing each other in Warri because of ordinary local government headquarter.

One doesn’t need to be a soothsayer to predict the massive conflagration that would ensue if the various Niger Delta ethnicities no longer have we “parasitic Northerners” as their common enemy and oil wells (not local government HQs) are at stake.

Already Ijaws have had scuffles and territorial disputes with several of the non-Ijaw Niger Delta ethnic groups among whom Ijaws settle; from Ilajes in Ondo state to Ibibios in Akwa Ibom state where they are supposed to be a negligible minority. Several years ago, Ijaws even went as far as Lagos to battle OPC. So the recent Atlas cove attack was by no means the first Ijaw aggression in Lagos.

A minority group (Ijaw) having the temerity to challenge a majority group (Yoruba) on the majority’s own turf. One cannot help but shudder at the tragedy that awaits non-Ijaw Niger Deltans if Nigeria implodes.

Then there is the Biafra / Igbo factor. The oil-rich riverine Igbos (Obigbo, Etche, Ikwerre etc) who produce much of Rivers state’s on-shore crude, are unlikely to join the prospective Ijaw dominated Niger Delta republic. They will most likely join the inland and Anioma Igbos to form Biafra.

If they don’t join voluntarily, Biafrans will still endeavour to exercise sovereignty over them not just because they are ethno-linguistically Igbos - despite some of their politically convenient denials – but more importantly because the riverine Igbos provide vital access to the sea which Biafra will desperately need. Quite probably the Biafrans will battle the Ijaw dominated Niger Delta republic for control of River’s oil wells and unfettered access to the Atlantic ocean.

Yorubas will also be drawn into the Niger Delta fray to secure their Ilaje and possibly Itsekiri cousins from Ijaw hegemony. Following the recent Atlas cove attack, several Yoruba groups (OPC, YCE etc) have already read the riot act to Ijaw insurgents to desist from aggression in Yoruba-land. So one can be sure, Yorubas will not leave Ilajes to the mercy of Ijaw expansionism.

Arewa

Up here in the North, Islamists who are barely restrained by the need to continue to enjoy oil wealth from the non-Muslim South, will feel free to pursue their Jihadist agenda for totalitarian Islamization. With the collapse of the failed Nigerian state and its security agencies (Police, Army), extremist groups like the recently demolished Boko Haram will proliferate, as post-Nigeria Arewa degenerates into an Islamist anarchy.

Again this isn’t farfetched scare-mongering. Just over a year ago our gallant soldiers crushed another Boko-Haram type Islamist insurgency in the Panshekara / Challawa area of Kano. A few months ago, there were news and police reports of an Islamic terrorist training camp somewhere around Zaria.

Millions of northern Muslims already share Boko Haram’s abhorrence of Western education, which is why they only send their children to Quranic schools (Tsangiya) that breed hundreds of thousands of potential Islamist recruits. Notice how support for Boko Haram initially snowballed among some disgruntled malcontents, before the recent massive security crackdown.

Moderate Northern Muslims will attempt to battle such extremism, but they will fail. For one thing most of the educated “moderate” Muslims do not have the same stomach for violence as the martyrdom-seeking Islamists who look forward to screwing 72 virgins in Al-Jannah – Islamic heaven.

For another thing, the excruciating economic hardship and accompanying social discontent in post-Nigeria Arewa occasioned sudden cessation of oil revenues from the South and skyrocketing cost of petroleum products from the same hostile South, will push millions of ill-educated, Islamo-brainwashed, easily manipulated pauperized Talakawa into the hands of Islamic extremists…a la Karl Marx’s opium for suffering masses.

After all Sharia is the cure-all social panacea even for massive retrenchment and markedly increased taxes that will inevitably follow as post-Nigeria northern government(s) drastically prunes expenditure and endeavour to make up for lost oil revenue. The increased support for extremists by the impoverished masses will bolster Islamist militancy.

By denouncing secular education as abomination (haram), Boko Haram automatically condemned educated northern elites as apostates (Takfir), who according to Islam should be killed. Thus in the Islamist anarchy of post-Nigeria Arewa, nemesis will catch up with many of the so-called Northern leaders who failed to enforce compulsory secular education that could have emancipated and empowered our people against Boko Haram extremism.

As in other Islamist anarchies (Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq), foreign Jihadists will also be drawn into the fray. And I’m not referring to the usual amateur mercenary Jihadis from Chad and Niger; but Al-Qaeda type, Pakistani trained professionals. After all Bin Laden has severally mentioned Nigeria as ripe for Islamic revolution. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has already spilled over from Algeria into neigbouring Mali from where they could easily crossover to a fractured Arewa.

Since Al-Qaeda is a global Islamist syndicate for Caliphal world domination, their activities won’t be restricted to the North. They will most likely foray into the parts of the South with large Muslim populations – notably northern Edo and Yoruba-land.

In addition, the major Islamist powers - Saudi Arabia and Iran - will both try to gain a foothold in Black Africa’s largest Muslim population by supporting rival Islamist factions.

Christians in the core North states with large population of indigenous non-Muslims (e.g Borno, Gombe & Bauchi) will organize their own militias to fend off Islamists. Add to this combustible mix of Islamist militancy and Christian militias, violent eruption of long simmering animosities between Hausa-Fulanis and Middle belt minorities; the result would be a catastrophe of Armageddon proportions that will make Somalia look like child’s play.

If the incessant religious violence in the North within the last two decades is anything to go by, we can also expect a 1966-type bloodbath of Easterners. But this time not only Igbos and Eastern minorities will be ethnically cleansed, but all southerners and even Middle belters in the core North. This will certainly be followed by massive retaliations down South.

These are just some of the ugly scenarios that await us if we are unable to make Nigeria work. The prospects are quite dire as a peaceful Soviet Union-type break-up is unlikely. On the contrary a Yugoslavia-type of violent disintegration is much more probable with Nigeria splintering up to a dozen parts. Old and subliminal ethno-religious animosities will violently erupt as our disparate ethnic pseudo-nationalities battle each other in a fratricidal scramble for territory and resources.

Nafata Bamaguje

Daura, Katsina state

http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/nafata-bamaguje/if-naija-scatter-part-1.html

This article really touched the situation we will find ourselves if Nigeria should break up or face a major religious/political crisis.

Beaf:

I came across this spine chilling article on Nigerian Village Square.


If the incessant religious violence in the North within the last two decades is anything to go by, we can also expect a 1966-type bloodbath of Easterners. But this time not only Igbos and Eastern minorities will be ethnically cleansed, but all southerners and even Middle belters in the core North. This will certainly be followed by massive retaliations down South.

These are just some of the ugly scenarios that await us if we are unable to make Nigeria work. The prospects are quite dire as a peaceful Soviet Union-type break-up is unlikely. On the contrary a Yugoslavia-type of violent disintegration is much more probable with Nigeria splintering up to a dozen parts. Old and subliminal ethno-religious animosities will violently erupt as our disparate ethnic pseudo-nationalities battle each other in a fratricidal scramble for territory and resources.

Nafata Bamaguje

Daura, Katsina state

http://www.nigeriavillagesquare.com/articles/nafata-bamaguje/if-naija-scatter-part-1.html

I don't think it will happen exactly like that. It will be very easy for the East to peacefully negotiate a nation(nobody will force anything on anybody). Once that happens (as I suspect it will), then Biafra will take up arms and wait for any islamist attack. If the islamists ever attack any Biafran territory, the Biafrans (including MEND) will move the battle to the North. The war no go be for our backyard this time. We've made that mistake the first time. It won't happen again. The battle field will be in northern towns and cities. If Yoruba don't want to join the fight against islamist north, na their own wahala. Dem go become slaves to the north. Simple! It may become a bloodbath, but it will be mainly up north. The north has never experienced a war before. I bet you they will be very vulnerable!
This war go dey different o! A lot of lessons have been learned through the years!

nawoh

ikeyman don tire for una

nigeria is here to stay

if u wan fight; fight for the right course, via constitution change etc

ikeyman don tire ooo

Why are some people so scared of a breakup that they have to resort to writing articles to scare others? In the event of a breakup, there may be an initial jolt in some regions but eventually everything will settle down and run smoothly.

In regards to the niger delta, the writer missed the issue badly. The Ijaws are the majority in the niger delta hence it will always reflect in their dominance. Also they inhabit most part of the deep creek which has become a safe hidout for the militants. But the struggle is not about them alone. MEND is for the emacipation of the niger delta and not the Ijaws alone. Henry Okah is not an Ijaw man. He is Urhobo yet he is well respected around the niger delta and among the militants. The ethnic groups in the niger delta have leaved together peacefully for centuries. The problem between the Ijaw, Itshekiri and Urhobo in warri was caused by the divide and rule tactics employed by the government to keep them fighting while the oil is stolen. It worked for a while until the niger deltans realised what was happening. Now there is peace in that area even though there is so much arms floating around there. So for thr writer to use that as evidence of an unending conflict if the niger delta split is just scare mongering. Seems this writer is very scared and insecure.

A peaceful breakup is impossible. It's especially impossible for us because of the oil issue.
Can you name any african countries that have had peaceful breakups? Any countries at all?
Even if we we want a peaceful breakup, which we don't, politicians will never accept it.
If you were ruling the whole of Nigeria would you voluntarily give up any portion of it?

I doubt a breakup will solve problems.

Seun:

If you were ruling the whole of Nigeria would you voluntarily give up any portion of it?

Hehehehe OBJ/Bakasi did not come to your mind?

@Topic
The writer of that article is just trying to scare Nigerians with what they will likely face in the invent of disintegration. I don't think we can feel any worse than we are feeling now. Nigeria will surely seize to exist one day why can't we hesten now be we do it in a war situation.

The writer is confuzzled.

First of all, Ijaws do not clamour for Niger-Delta Republic.

Secondly, Ijaws do not by and large settle amongst other tribes, rather other tribes move South into the delta to settle with the Ijaw due to population pressure upland.

The Ogoni and Isoko are just two examples of tribes "taken in" by the Ijaw.

Thirdly, he is confused if he thinks other tribes are not agitating for the same thing as Ijaw. Urhobos and Ndonis are just a counter-example. Henry Okah is not even an Ijaw man.

I think the writer should just face his Northern people and stop worrying about Nigeria breaking up. He has most to worry cos it will affect his people most when the host shakes off the parasite. We are not scared of break-up cos we know we can live with all the peoples of Southern Nigeria without any problem. All we ask for is a true application of federalism.

in every country that some part is fighting for they republic about 10to15% of that part  are always against of  the freedom for the fear of unknowns and have already  absolved the ill situations  he or she found their self in they present nation,

Australia today is a country that many Nigeria will like to go for greener pasture the British government dumped them as an outcast, criminals but today Australia is one of the best nation in the world,

here in South Africa wan black South Africa was fighting for freedom not  all black south Africa support the struggle, white south Africa were using black to fight their brothers and killing them telling them same story your are tell us that we cant make it that we will kill each other


but  today thousands of Nigerian are surviving here in the and preferred to stay here than living Nigeria.

blacksta:

I doubt a breakup will solve problems.

True talk

Actually the article captured what will happen. It is now up to the loothing and thieving politicians to do the right things. People have known these issues for a long time, but don't think the fear of this will keep them mute for long.

If you push a man to the wall, be rest assured that he will react. the same way a man will dumbly attack somebody pointing a gun at him with bare hands. we should pray hard not to come to this scenario.

The article is a good one in the way it considers the whole country, although there are one or two glaring gaps. The writer is from the North and is totally unbiased in his analysis.
The situation of the North breaking down into ever more tightening spiral of religious turmoil is all too real, as deprivation of education and poverty have very unforetunately been used as tools of control by the Northern elite. However, the important analysis of the part that will be played by the Northern controlled army is missing (there is just the suggestion of a collapse); will there be splits between Hausa-Fulani and the largely Christian Middle Belt? This could be along current simmering seams of tension or along religious lines or land usage lines(as in Jos).

I don't see the Yoruba's getting involved in the Niger Delta to save Ilaje or Itsekiri's, if these groups haven't been treated badly up to now they aren't likely to be treated badly in the future; also, Yoruba land is the most unready in the South for a split and will be caught up in other issues.
As Ibime noted, the Ijaw are the original settlers who gave incoming migrants land to settle on, the problem in Warri was due to one group not recognising this. The battle in Warri was always Itsekiri against Urhobo and Itsekiri against Ijaw; even that has been largely healed, the governor of Delta state is Itsekiri (you wouldn't expect that if they were being maltreated by the Urhobo's and Ijaws).

It also goes without saying that relations with the Igbo (and ocean access) should not be a major issue, but these things need speaking about now. However, what will be the relations between the Igbo and Middle Belt?

One other question concerning the Niger Delta, will those from the Muslim parts of Northern Edo prefer to go with the Middle Belt or would they join the ND?

It is obvious the writer is also trying to scare people (though he made some true observations). The biggest exaggeration he made is to assume that the Igbo will stand by and absorb being "ethnically cleansed" together with the minorities of the East. Even Igbos in the north won't move down south this time. So let that be understood. As for the relation between Igbos and middle belt (especially Benue) there is a possibility of a rapport or accord to join in a new nation. I don't see why not.
The final truth is that this frightful scenario is very possible in Nigeria (since we can't even conduct a simple election peacefully). So no one should think this is far fetched. The only thing that could prevent a senseless bloodbath is that the usual prey (Igbo and deltans) is armed enough to make the usual aggressors think twice before embarking on any funny moves. It is possible for the whole south to team up against the north, but the Yoruba remains the weak link. I see them teaming up with the north again (out of fear) to want to force their will on the East (unless if discouraged by armed Easterners in Lagos). Anyway you look at it, the only thing that will prevent a bloodbath is enough deterrence from the East.

Onlytruth:

It is obvious the writer is also trying to scare people (though he made some true observations). The biggest exaggeration he made is to assume that the Igbo will stand by and absorb being "ethnically cleansed" together with the minorities of the East. Even Igbos in the north won't move down south this time. So let that be understood. As for the relation between Igbos and middle belt (especially Benue) there is a possibility of a rapport or accord to join in a new nation. I don't see why not.
The final truth is that this frightful scenario is very possible in Nigeria (since we can't even conduct a simple election peacefully). So no one should think this is far fetched. The only thing that could prevent a senseless bloodbath is that the usual prey (Igbo and deltans) is armed enough to make the usual aggressors think twice before embarking on any funny moves. It is possible for the whole south to team up against the north, but the Yoruba remains the weak link. I see them teaming up with the north again (out of fear) to want to force their will on the East (unless if discouraged by armed Easterners in Lagos). Anyway you look at it, the only thing that will prevent a bloodbath is enough deterrence from the East.

Yes, the Yoruba's believe in one Nigeria, but there might be a possible miscalculation with the likes of Fashola here. He has made good noises toward a Sovereign National Conference and resource control, the question is how far Lagos will push.

A peaceful breakup is possible.

Beaf:

Yes, the Yoruba's believe in one Nigeria, but there might be a possible miscalculation with the likes of Fashola here. He has made good noises toward a Sovereign National Conference and resource control, the question is how far Lagos will push.

My position has shifted away from the above in the past few months.

uhmmmm,  we are already discussing the breakup.

if eventually naija breaks up, i

pray for a peaceful one. no war i beg.

i am too young to die (even at 70) and too beautiful to have K leg or short sleeve.

I am Ijaw and think that the writer captured it properly, the only ommission however is that Secession is not an item on the Ijaw menu sheet.

Sincerely breakup is a lazy way of attempting to solve the nigerian puzzle. IT WILL NOT WORK

and the story continues

It is a welcome idea that Nairaland forum residents are attempting to apply critical but practical analysis to the possible issue of disintegration of the cesspit called Nigeria. The insidious political machination that happened in 1966, when the northern Nigerian political and military elites hoodwinked many southern Nigerian political and military goons, baring Igbo, Ibibio, Ogoni, Anaang and Ijo of eastern region to join the war of attrition against Biafra, would not happen. I am not sure what would happen during the future integration of the colonial contraption call Nigeria.

However, there could be battles for territorial expansionism and outright subjugation that may occur if normal ethno-linguistics and affinity of the people in certain areas failed to accomplish the merger. Also, there could be a factor of old regional affiliations.

It is very true as Beaf had stated in his previous post that the Igbo/Biafra republic would not remain dormant as the Christians in Plateau and Southern Kaduna are being massacred by the Islamic fundamentalists.

In all the scenarios, the Yoruba/Oduduwa Republic would be a weak link. This is partly because of their belief, ethnicity and region. The collusion of Islam and Christianity would be very tempting as Kwara State may become a battle ground on both scores.  Also, there is no doubt that many people of Yoruba extractions firmly believed that the present state of Nigeria had benefited them and would want to stick with the nonsensical One-Nigeria slogan.

Another protracted and cantankerous issue would emerge from the Old Mid-western region. This old region has many small ethnic groups that would be subjected to the political machination of push/pull from Yoruba/Oduduwa, Igbo/Biafra and Hausa-Fulani-Kanuri-Nupe/Arewa Republics. The only sure thing that may happen would be the entire Igbo/Delta would join their brethren in Igbo/Biafra. The question remains which sovereign umbrella would the people of Edo, Urhobo, Ishan, Ijo of Mid-western region, Itsekiri and inhabitants of Auchi tend to gravitate?

@ Poster

i am already stacking my ak47 and berreters.

When it come I won't be taken alive!!!

Who go compensate me for the land wey I get in lagos


HEHEHEHEHE!

ONE NAIJA.

Scary


i really dont think breakup will solve anything, though it is coming. . .  faster than you know it


I got friends in Kano, stacking gunz . . . 


btw where is beccomerich

i have predicted it, so not scary at all

Dede1:

It is a welcome idea that Nairaland forum residents are attempting to apply critical but practical analysis to the possible issue of disintegration of the cesspit called Nigeria. The insidious political machination that happened in 1966, when the northern Nigerian political and military elites hoodwinked many southern Nigerian political and military goons, baring Igbo, Ibibio, Ogoni, Anaang and Ijo of eastern region to join the war of attrition against Biafra, would not happen. I am not sure what would happen during the future integration of the colonial contraption call Nigeria.

However, there could be battles for territorial expansionism and outright subjugation that may occur if normal ethno-linguistics and affinity of the people in certain areas failed to accomplish the merger. Also, there could be a factor of old regional affiliations.

It is very true as Beaf had stated in his previous post that the Igbo/Biafra republic would not remain dormant as the Christians in Plateau and Southern Kaduna are being massacred by the Islamic fundamentalists.

In all the scenarios, the Yoruba/Oduduwa Republic would be a weak link. This is partly because of their belief, ethnicity and region. The collusion of Islam and Christianity would be very tempting as Kwara State may become a battle ground on both scores.  Also, there is no doubt that many people of Yoruba extractions firmly believed that the present state of Nigeria had benefited them and would want to stick with the nonsensical One-Nigeria slogan.

Another protracted and cantankerous issue would emerge from the Old Mid-western region. This old region has many small ethnic groups that would be subjected to the political machination of push/pull from Yoruba/Oduduwa, Igbo/Biafra and Hausa-Fulani-Kanuri-Nupe/Arewa Republics. The only sure thing that may happen would be the entire Igbo/Delta would join their brethren in Igbo/Biafra. The question remains which sovereign umbrella would the people of Edo, Urhobo, Ishan, Ijo of Mid-western region, Itsekiri and inhabitants of Auchi tend to gravitate?   

The only problems in the current Delta state might arise with the Itsekiri, but they have much more to gain by sticking with Urhobo, Isoko and Izon than wondering off to join their Youruba kith eg, no Itsekiri man would ever be governor of a Yoruba state as is currently the case in Delta state. The smart money is on the Itsekiri will doing the right thing and sticking with Izon, Isoko and Urhobo. Delta state will move as a block.

There might be issues with the Muslim areas of Edo state, they will be minorities in some way regardless of where they go, so I'm guessing that they might choose the best of evils and stick with their kin in the Middle Belt.

look forward to screwing 72 virgins in Al-Jannah

Oh, Beaf, . . I need half of them here as collateral.

I don't think there is anything to fear from the old Mid West / Bendel Region, just like the teeth and tongue will have the occasional disagreement, they realise that they are better off in one mouth. With the use of resource control and power rotation they will get along just fine. To imply that they (Bendel) seek endorsement from the colonial tripartite legacy is wishful thinking.

The obvious flashpoints are in the north with sharia fundamentalist v liberal islamists and in the east with the older kingdoms of calabar / efik as well as anioma (mistrust of ndigbo regarding ebonyi state creation) refusing to join the core east.

On the plus side the 6 geopolitical zones are becoming increasingly joined up and integrated particularly the south south, there will be greater autonomy but no split.

Funkadelic

Ready or not here we come
Gettin' down on the one which
We believe in
One nation under a groove,
gettin' down just for the funk
(Can I get it on my good foot)
Gettin' down just for the funk of it
(Good God)
'bout time I got down one time
One nation and we're on the move
Nothin' can stop us now
(Aye aye aye aye aye)
Feet don't fail me now
Give you more of what you're funkin' for
Feet don't fail me now
Do you promise to funk?
The whole funk, nothin' but the funk

Very profound, it's a food for thought for all regardless of where you stand on this subject.
There is no fear mongering in this article, if anything, the writer did not capture all possible scenarios that
are likely to play out.
For example, he did not touch the issue of refugees -the resulting stateless people that are
likely to arise from the break-up. What do you do with them?

There are several minorities in each geographical region, fitting them into a larger composite will always be a challenge.
We can theorize about each minority group, slice and dice them, or even carve them as depicted in several maps by some posters here, truth is; when swords are
drawn, alliances would be formed and foes identified.
True federation is the only solution for now until such a time that the rights of minorities are respected and protected by the
larger ethnic groups.
Any thing other than true federation is a sure call for what the writer enunciated in his article.

@Dede1,
You certainly do not understand Yoruba people. You seem to have some of kind of hatred for Yoruba people judging from
your posts.
Real strength lies in diplomacy and knowing when to pick up the sword. If you think Yoruba people do not want out or are the "weak-link," think again.
I'll submit to you that in 1993, the Yoruba wanted out and but were pacified by the installation of Sonekan, still the fight continued
until 1999 when the North acquiesced to our demands. Learn the power of diplomacy and you'll surmount a lot. My 2 cents.

Sapele,
Anioma is not yet a state and never had a chance to join the East but declined. Where did you get that from?

Anyways, anything is possible so I won't say its purely fear mongering and we should take it seriously but em I don't see any big ethnic flare up in the East. The Ijo might be militant but not stupid enought to start wars with all its neighbors it can't win over land. I think people in the East will work things out ammicably. I know forsure Middle belt will be battlefield that is if we let the muslim north take it there. Like Onlytruth said if the North wants a fight as usual this time all their adversaries from Middlebelt, Southern Kaduna to the East should take the fight right to their door steps. They've never experienced modern warfare and will be the least prepared for it.

Yoruba people hhhmmmmm ur own na complicated stuff since una get plenty fulani wannabe muslims.

Edo hhm me thinks they will just roll with their fellow Edo people. Why would they even entertain the NortH? They are very different.