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''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia - Foreign Affairs - Nairaland

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''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by mazeltov(m): 11:52am On May 28, 2016



A new book by Gen. Sir Richard Shirreff, NATO's deputy supreme allied commander for Europe from 2011 to 2014, evokes a potential scenario that leads to a devastating future war with Russia.
The book, "2017 War with Russia," is clearly labeled as a work of fiction.

But it portrays a fairly convincing manufactured incident that the fictional president of Russia uses as a causus belli for a clash with NATO. In his account, Russia rapidly expands its war aims by invading the Baltic states, which are NATO members, and world war ensues. Perhaps more worryingly, the author has since told BBC Radio 4's Today program that such a conflict is "entirely plausible." Fact versus fiction
I do not want to give any more away about the book (it is a good and authentic, if gloomy, read). But the general's underlying political message — clearly articulated in the book's preface — is that the hollowing out of defense capabilities across the West and its reluctance and inability to stand up to Russia is making war ever more likely. Is this an accurate assessment of the real world?

The novel is reminiscent of Tom Clancy's "The Hunt for Red October" and the excellent "The Third World War: August 1985" by Gen. John Hackett. "The Third World War," written at the height of the Cold War, was conceived as a "future history," supposedly looking back at the outbreak and subsequent unfolding of a full-blown NATO-versus-Warsaw Pact war.

Shirreff's book, however, is a far more overtly political piece, and it is deeply critical of the West's reduced defense spending and its unwillingness — and inability — to stand up to the Russian threat. At first sight this appears a persuasive case — but on reflection is perhaps slightly less so.

Shirreff's scenario assumes either that the Russian president had no other option to achieve his political goals than through the use of military force, or "hard power," or that he is what might be termed "an irrational actor" in the mold of North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Neither strikes me as convincing.
Russia has undoubtedly suffered economically from the global downturn in energy prices and from economic sanctions following the annexation of the Crimea, but the degree of dependence, in particular energy dependence, that Western Europe has on Russia is highly significant.

The security of codependence
For example, the Nord Stream pipeline laid in international waters along the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, supplies a significant — according to European Union figures, 38.7% — proportion of Western Europe's gas needs. In turn, Russia desperately needs the foreign earnings this generates. Consequently, the two sides of this hypothetical war are heavily economically interdependent. Put another way, Russia rationally could bring much more significant, and cheaper, political pressure to bear by turning off the gas supply: Why resort to the chancier option of war?

But is the real President Vladimir Putin irrational? A real-life analysis of the Russian president's actions would suggest that he is being entirely rational and that his actions are those of an archrealist who places the needs of his country first. Putin, it seems, is looking to play the long game.

Looked at from the viewpoint of Russia, and especially European Russia, it is being hemmed in by its opponents with more and more of its neighbors coming under the sway of the US, the West … and NATO. Turkey, on Russia's southern border, joined the military alliance in 1952, and since the end of the Cold War many of Russia's former Warsaw Pact allies, including Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and the Baltic States, have signed up too. Many in Russia want their leader to kick back against this.

Russia has, moreover, always respected a strong leader, and the present incumbent of the Kremlin enjoys levels of popularity — at least 80% — that Western politicians can only dream of. Saber rattling is all part of this strongman image, but why risk it all by undertaking that most risky of maneuvers in international politics: war?

It's certainly in Putin's interests that the West cut defense spending and has a diminished appetite for brinkmanship, and it is perhaps understandable that a recently retired general should push for this to be reversed. But does that really make a war any more likely? Probably not, though there is always that niggling possibility. But if there were to be war with Russia, what might it look like? The Cold War scenario of vast armies fighting a large-scale conventional war dominated by tanks and aircraft directly supporting the battlefield is as outdated a concept as it is unlikely.
Both sides have considerable resources at their disposal, but NATO is significantly larger than Russia in simple numbers: NATO has 3.6 million personnel in uniform compared with Russia's 800,000; NATO has 7,500 tanks to Russia's 2,750; and NATO has 5,900 combat aircraft to Russia's 1,571.

These bald figures do not tell the whole story, however, as NATO's forces are deployed globally to a far greater extent than Russia's, and even acknowledging that Russia could achieve a temporary military advantage in, say, the Baltics, for how long and at what price? Nevertheless, today's armies are smaller and more reliant on technology than they were during much of the 20th century, and the likelihood of a Kursk-style pitched battle between heavy armor is highly unlikely.

That said, the ever-greater reach of missiles and artillery, the accuracy and potency of modern precision-guided munitions, the extensive use of surveillance systems (from space, via drones, and through highly sophisticated electronic eavesdropping) would make a contemporary battlefield highly dangerous and highly destructive, as pictures from even relatively small-scale recent conflicts from Grozny to Aleppo show.

Consequently, while the armies and individual battles might be smaller than those in World War II, the death toll, the loss of war-making material, and both sides' ability to reduce everything in their paths to rubble would make a large-scale conflict far wider-reaching and, in terms of recovery, longer-lasting than anything we have seen before.

In such a conflict, the very term "battlefield" would itself be highly misleading: Such a war, employing ships, submarines, and aircraft with truly global reach, would indeed be a world war and would pay scant attention to the difference between military and civilian targets; this would truly be a war among the people.

And not just an earth-bound war: Outer space would be a highly contested arena, as would cyberspace, with both sides seeking to disrupt all aspects of normal life as the war was taken into the realms of politics, infrastructure, information, and commerce.

Despite Shirreff's warnings, the nightmare scenario of nuclear war is highly unlikely, as neither side ultimately would wish to unleash destruction on that scale. Likewise, chemical and biological weapons would, if employed at all, be used at a very local level, and sparingly.

That is not to say that the scale of the destruction would not be significant. This would be total war, waged on every imaginable front, from the internet and the stock market to outer space.

The general has, then, written an excellent and compelling novel. But while there might be some argument in favor of a more robust foreign policy and greater defense spending, to dismiss the Russian leadership purely as aggressively irrational is both naive and shortsighted. Ultimately, when it comes to a new world war, both sides now have far too much to lose.
Re: ''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by whitecloth: 12:20pm On May 28, 2016
Its not an issue of 'IF' its what will surely happen, biblical data talked about it, also the Quran and other ancient manuscript, I won't be surprise if it happened, am even interested in watching the scene from a safe point of view. Russians are ever prepared, NATO is powerful but its breaking down small small on the inside..

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Re: ''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by Nobody: 12:37pm On May 28, 2016
The analysis of this NATO commander is so flawed. So in an all-out between the coalition forces of NATO & Russia; what would China, Iran & India be doing? Fold their arms & become circus spectators? grin

Shall we stop this dick-measuring contest & just declare ww3 open since NATO resources are ten-times more than that of Russia and let's see which of the axis remain standing after 2weeks? grin

And since Bill Gate's agenda 21 & eugenics is covertly scheming to cut the world population by 15% by all means necessary, this could as well mean killing 2birds with a stone. grin


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fh8tE_hbdM

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Re: ''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by Appleyard(m): 6:45pm On May 28, 2016
Zoharariel:
The analysis of this NATO commander is so flawed. So in an all-out between the coalition forces of NATO & Russia; what would China, Iran & India be doing? Fold their arms & become circus spectators? grin

Shall we stop this dick-measuring contest & just declare ww3 open since NATO resources are ten-times more than that of Russia and let's see which of the axis remain standing after 2weeks? grin

And since Bill Gate's agenda 21 & eugenics is covertly scheming to cut the world population by 15% by all means necessary, this could as well mean killing 2birds with a stone. grin


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fh8tE_hbdM

grin You see, i try my possible best to avoid threads like this, especially when the comparison is about NATO vs Russia. It is a pity that at this modern age of wickedness we are living in, some folks still believe that there can be a conventional war between NATO and Russia, and that's the wishful thinking that beggers would never consider, even as they wish a horse to ride.

How they so much cherish the idea of a 25- nation team taken on one nation. Just how sweet the bean counting its to them ... All of which must happen in their CONVENTIONAL fantasy....

Well, its always best to live a dreamer to dream its own dream. Thus, Sir Richard Shirref should be left to dream..

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Re: ''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by mazeltov(m): 7:30pm On May 28, 2016
Appleyard:


grin You see, i try my possible best to avoid threads like this, especially when the comparison is about NATO vs Russia. It is a pity that at this modern age of wickedness we are living in, some folks still believe that there can be a conventional war between NATO and Russia, and that's the wishful thinking that beggers would never consider, even as they wish a horse to ride.

How they so much cherish the idea of a 25- nation team taken on one nation. Just how sweet the bean counting its to them ... All of which must happen in their CONVENTIONAL fantasy....

Well, its always best to live a dreamer to dream its own dream. Thus, Sir Richard Shirref should be left to dream..
you just spoke my mind!!! I purposely opened the thread in order to enlighten some people.
In an event of nuclear war, the game Will alway be lose-lose. Why? The level of economic integration (globalization) in the world today is just so co-dependence. lolzzz Even America still depends on Russia jet engine to explore the space and we are here on nairaland quarelling over what will never happan.
Well, i also used to romance 3rd world war fantasy until I later realised that there can never be anything like nuclear war again!!
Re: ''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by Appleyard(m): 11:06pm On May 28, 2016
mazeltov:
you just spoke my mind!!! I purposely opened the thread in order to enlighten some people.
In an event of nuclear war, the game Will alway be lose-lose. Why? The level of economic integration (globalization) in the world today is just so co-dependence. lolzzz Even America still depends on Russia jet engine to explore the space and we are here on nairaland quarelling over what will never happan.
Well, i also used to romance 3rd world war fantasy until I later realised that there can never be anything like nuclear war again!!
Exactly my point. The fact is, a lot of people dont even realise what they're wishing for when envisaging war between Russia and NATO/US. They believed, just like they watch in movies, that one side would just overrun the other, and that would be it.
Believe me, brother, anybody who tells you that you can defend against thousands of Nukes and other life exterminating weaponries, like biological ones, as concieved by man's ingenuity, know that such person doesn't like you as a human being; and is probably tired of the world he lives in.

Until the bunch of us and the sick politicians we have in the developed world realise that there is no nuclear war that will be winable, we will continue to descend down the abyss of doom; even as the Doom's Day Clock keep ticking close to Midnight.

I tell you the truth: man is a failed project. We have failed the Earth.

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Re: ''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by Missy89(f): 11:33pm On May 28, 2016
Appleyard:
Exactly my point. The fact is, a lot of people dont even realise what they're wishing for when envisaging war between Russia and NATO/US. They believed, just like they watch in movies, that one side would just overrun the other, and that would be it.
Believe me, brother, anybody who tells you that you can defend against thousands of Nukes and other life exterminating weaponries, like biological ones, as concieved by man's ingenuity, know that such person doesn't like you as a human being; and is probably tired of the world he lives in.

Until the bunch of us and the sick politicians we have in the developed world realise that there is no nuclear war that will be winable, we will continue to descend down the abyss of doom; even as the Doom's Day Clock keep ticking close to Midnight.

I tell you the truth: man is a failed project. We have failed the Earth.

Hopefully your Magrav tech will save the day.

I believe in you cool

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Re: ''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by Appleyard(m): 12:10am On May 29, 2016
Missy89:


Hopefully your Magrav tech will save the day.

I believe in you cool
Yeah. Especially the one that captured your most secretive and advance stealth drone, sunk your Carrier, etc. cheesy Pls, won't you give me a kiss for being so devoted to your well being? ;-) You know you are my favorite, senorita..B-)

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Re: ''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by Missy89(f): 12:18am On May 29, 2016
Appleyard:
Yeah. Especially the one that captured your most secretive and advance stealth drone, sunk your Carrier, etc. cheesy Pls, won't you give me a kiss for being so devoted to your well being? ;-) You know you are my favorite, senorita..B-)

kiss There

I still want to see the tech thou wink

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Re: ''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by ValerianSteel(m): 2:08am On May 29, 2016
Missy89:

Hopefully your Magrav tech will save the day.
I believe in you cool
grin grin grin grin
The All powerful reverse engineering Magrav will surely save the day grin grin

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Re: ''IF'' NATO Went To War With Russia by Appleyard(m): 8:45pm On May 29, 2016
Missy89:


kiss There

I still want to see the tech thou wink
cool Oh! Its that one the US says it threatens its National Security and Foreign Policy, you know cheesy... Anyway, for further explanation, you can still meet me at the South-South zonal branch of the Zoharariel Spiritual Cleansing and Reconfiguration Centre, located at Airport Road, Warri, Delta State.

I will be waiting, sweet heart...kiss

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