Godwin Emefiele, CBN Governor

Akinpelu Dada and Oyetunji Abioye

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, has predicted that the nation’s economy will likely come out of recession by the fourth quarter of this year when the result of the various measures put in place by the Federal Government and the monetary authorities becomes manifest.

One of such measures, according to him, is the decision of the CBN to establish a bridge fund for the government to utilise to stimulate the economy whenever there is a need for it.

Emefiele, who spoke to media executives in Lagos on Saturday, said, “We are already in the valley, the only direction is to go up the hill and the government is doing everything possible to ensure that we move up the hill. I am optimistic that based on the actions being taken by the monetary and fiscal authorities, the fourth quarter results will show evidence that we have started to move out of the recession.

“The worst is over. The Nigerian economy is on the path of recovery and growth. So, please if you are a bystander or sideliner, you are losing; join the train now before it leaves the station.”

While explaining the reasoning behind the bridge fund, the apex bank boss said, “Both the monetary and fiscal authorities are working together and that is why you can see a situation where today even when we have revenue shortage or deficit, the monetary authority is trying to bridge the gap.

“We said to the fiscal authority that we can give you a bridge to go ahead and spend, and when you obtain the foreign loan that you are negotiating, or when your revenue improve, you can repay the bridge that we have created for you in order to stimulate spending. That is a practical case of collaboration between the monetary and fiscal authorities.”

He alluded to the release of another batch of N350bn by the Ministry of Finance to stimulate the economy as another measure taken by the government to get the nation out of recession.

Following the introduction of a flexible exchange rate regime, Emefiele said foreign investors’ interest in the Nigerian economy was gradually increasing, adding that in the last three months, almost $1bn in Foreign Direct Investment had come into the country.

He stated, “I wasn’t optimistic that the FDI would come initially, but with what we have seen in three months, almost $1bn, I feel very confident that there will be more inflow into the system and more and more people will have foreign exchange available for them to do their business.

“That will improve industrial capacity. The rate may be high now, but there’s high possibility that with more availability of foreign exchange, the rate will come down. I am very optimistic that a lot of positive things will happen.

“I have talked about how the fiscal authority is trying to push in liquidity to stimulate consumption, demand consumption expenditure; and of course, when consumer consumption is stimulated, demand for goods will go up and if the demand goes up, the industrial capacity will improve. If we maintain a steady course in the way we are going, and if all those who have foreign exchange repatriate them, more and more people will have foreign exchange to do their business, that will improve industrial capacity.”

Another way to inject liquidity into the system, according to the CBN governor, is for the Federal Government to sell some of its assets in the oil and gas industry in order to raise money.

Emefiele said, “In April 2015, even before this government came on board, I had opined that there was a need for the government to scale down or sell off some its investments in oil and gas, particularly in the NNPC and the NLNG, at that time when the price of oil was around $50-$55 per barrel. We actually commissioned some consultants that conducted a study and at the end of that study, we were told that if we sell 10 per cent to 15 per cent of our holding in the oil and gas sector that we could realise up to $40bn.

“Unfortunately, the markets have become soft. If we choose to do that now, we can still get $10bn to $15bn, or maybe $20bn. If we have that kind of liquidity, it will be easy for us to really stimulate spending and also to turn the economy around. That proposal is still on the table, because I have also heard that some of our colleagues in the Federal Executive Council have talked about it and a lot of people too.

“If we take that option, I am optimistic we will be able to stimulate the economy and earn the foreign currency that we can really use to kick-start it.”

Another measure being considered by the Federal Government, according to him, is the shortening of the procurement process in order to accelerate the process of executing capital projects in view of the fact that the budget was not passed until May.

On the factors that pushed the economy into recession, the apex bank boss said the plunge in the prices of crude oil in the international market severely affected Nigeria’s earnings, in addition to the country’s inability to save when the prices were high and invest massively in infrastructure.

He also blamed unbridled appetite for the consumption of foreign goods for the recession, adding, “In 2005, Nigeria’s import bill was only about N70bn, but by 2015, Nigeria’s import bill had risen to about N790bn. What were we consuming?”

While reacting to the governor’s optimism that the recession would start easing off in the fourth quarter, economic and financial experts said on Sunday that it would be nearly impossible for the nation to come out of recession this year.

They said if the Federal Government implemented appropriate measures to tackle the problem, the country might be fortunate to witness a positive growth sometime next year.

“I am not sure we can come out of recession this year. Already, we are at the end of the third quarter. If the policymakers allow liquidity into the system and adopt appropriate measures, we may be lucky to come out of the recession early next year,” a professor of Economics at the Olabisi Onabanjo University, Sherriffdeen Tella, said,

The Head, Research and Investment Advisory, SCM Capital, Mr. Sewa Wusu, is of the opinion that the nation may not be able to come out of the recession until the second or third quarter of next year if appropriate measures are taken.

He said, “Recession is not something you come out of easily. It is going to be a long haul thing. We must take counter-cyclical measures to reflate the economy and get us out of recession. Nigerians need to be patient with the government. Countries that went into recession and came out did not come out so quickly.

“We need to spend money on sectors that can stimulate growth easily and also spend massively on infrastructure. Sectors that can stimulate growth, create employment, production and consumption, which we need to spend on are transportation, manufacturing and housing.”

The Chief Executive Officer, Cowry Asset Management Limited, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, said, “It is not possible for us to come out of recession this year. There is a time lag between the time policies are implemented and the time we begin to see their effects on the economy.

“We are already at the end of the third quarter. The stimulus package will come in the fourth quarter. Before we can begin to feel the effect, it will get to next year.”


http://punchng.com/nigeriall-start-getting-recession-q4-says-emefiele-recovery-not-possible-2017-experts/

lets hope you people are right but I have this feeling of knowing you are wrong because almost 70% of fiscal and monetary policies taken by this administration is dead on arrival. You dear Governor was part of the people who helped grow our import and gluttony for what we don't have especially dem foreign goods. Having said that, I just wish we are right cause we have a whole big trouble in our hands

This is a good news to start the day with. Good morning to you all.

iffa hia.... gerrahiaa

I am with him on this one.

Emefiele the figure head is not in charge. The 106Thillion naira in the TSA can do the magic but buhari is using it to look for oil in hausa land

"... The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Godwin
Emefiele, has predicted that the nation’s economy will likely come
out of recession by the fourth quarter of this year when the result
of the various measures put in place by the Federal Government
and the monetary authorities becomes manifest."



Will likely come out

They are guessing, they are not even sure sef.


Besides, are we not already in the fourth quarter of the year


Believe this nonsense, you can as well believe a fish riding a bike.

Just like that? Is this guy TB Joshua?

we just keep hearing promises and no action.

CHANGE IS THE GREATEST SCAM OF THE CENTURY.
HIT LIKE IF U BELIEVE

Assuming PDP is still rulling and oil price crashed from $140/barrel to $40/barrel...then Dasuki keeps on distributing arms' funds to Bafarawas,Metus etc...Boko Haram keeps on occupying more LGAs in the northeast...Patience still saves millions of dollars in her multiple accounts...soldiers keep on running away from the battlefield...Asari keeps on receiving millions of dollars for guarding oil pipes...Ayo's private jet is being used to carry millions of dollars in the name of buying arms from Israel...we keep on having incessant explosions in churches,mosques,motor parks and markets...TSA and BVN are still yet to be implemented...BELIEVE ME THE COUNTRY WOULD'NT HAVE BEEN ONLY IN RECESSION,IT WOULD HAVE BEEN IN OBLIVION!

ironheart:
I am with him on this one.

ZOMBIE SPOTTED

this CBN Guvnor sef
Manage dis amala

siraj1402:
Ameen ooo

prayer wont solve this but government action

I pray Ooo

spyder880:
Just like that? Is this guy TB Joshua?

He's own pass TB Joshua, I pray so Sha

Talking Toms. TALK NO WORK.

Meaning the price of rice, garri, beansand other essentials will all come down in the 4th quarter abi?

Tell us wat u re putting in place to archive dat not just predictions 2 satisfy zombies

Oga boss, forget theory. Do do your work very well. Enough of the promises.

We are watching.

Q4 is just around the corner.

Admit it Oga cbn governor, you guys are confused as ever and just doing trial by error

Liars

It's clear that APC have bitten more than the can chew and are clueless on how to move the nation forward. The change mantra has backfired in their face now change has taken a different meaning that they themselves cannot define

We dey wait. For your mind 4th quarter far.

Buharinomics, Buharirize, Buratai....everything bura bura

So The dollar will also come down

Q4 na from next month!

Shaaraap

Imagine... Predictions!