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Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? - Politics - Nairaland

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Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Diamby: 9:56pm On Feb 03, 2017
People who criticize the present administration for the economic recession we are should tell us what the ousted government of GEJ would have done differently to halt the recession. We all know that i was the sharp drop in oil prices and lack of savings that threw us into this recession.Does jonathan have the powers to regulate international oil price? Nigeria is largely dependent on its earnings from crude oil for survival as such the oil prices affected our dollar earnings thereby causing the devaluation of the naira.I also ask what has previous administration done about diversifying the economy,building new refineries or revamping the old ones.power sector reforms as i know was a mess as most of the power infrastructure were handed over to those who have no capacity to manage them hence the eratic power supply we have now. The present govt might have its own issues about sound economic policies but i must say no foundation was built for the present government to build on so its like nigerian is just been nutured from the begining. Guys feel free to critise and add your own comments on how we found ourselves where we are today.Nigeria problem is structural.

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Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by doubleportion: 10:28pm On Feb 03, 2017
This was exactly what I said in on of my earlier post somewhere today, that even the experts had predicted that Nigeria was due for recession, that the way and manner it's being manage,we cannot escape it.
Better still, things might be tough right now, but I will be worse if we had chosen our President in opposing manner.

2 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by todayboy: 10:31pm On Feb 03, 2017
assuming gej is still in power there will be no recession in the first place
Buhari incompetence and pride brought recession to Nigeria
op no need to debate join the tuface protest lets chase the dullard out of asorock

30 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Nobody: 10:43pm On Feb 03, 2017
Diamby:
People who criticize the present administration for the economic recession we are should tell us what the ousted government of GEJ would have done differently to halt the recession. We all know that i was the sharp drop in oil prices and lack of savings that threw us into this recession.Does jonathan have the powers to regulate international oil price? Nigeria is largely dependent on its earnings from crude oil for survival as such the oil prices affected our dollar earnings thereby causing the devaluation of the naira.I also ask what has previous administration done about diversifying the economy,building new refineries or revamping the old ones.power sector reforms as i know was a mess as most of the power infrastructure were handed over to those who have no capacity to manage them hence the eratic power supply we have now. The present govt might have its own issues about sound economic policies but i must say no foundation was built for the present government to build on so its like nigerian is just been nutured from the begining. Guys feel free to critise and add your own comments on how we found ourselves where we are today.Nigeria problem is structural.

GEJ wouldn't have told the world Nigeria is broke so investors would not have all ran away.

He would not have implement TIN all at once, money shortage would not have happened.

Most food would not have been ban, much food would have been in the land.

He would not have harrased those who has the money with DSS so the can spend the money freely and easily.

And so on

23 Likes

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by doubleportion: 10:44pm On Feb 03, 2017
todayboy:
assuming gej is still in power there will be no recession in the first place
Buhari incompetence and pride brought recession to Nigeria
op no need to debate join the tuface protest lets chase the dullard out of asorock

Maybe you may need to get your fact right,Okonjo Iweala had been borrowing to pay salary before handing over, so recession was handed over to this administration.

2 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by todayboy: 10:46pm On Feb 03, 2017
doubleportion:


Maybe you may need to get your fact right,Okonjo Iweala had been borrowing to pay salary before handing over, so recession was handed over to this administration.

so borrowing to pay salary is the definition of recession abi

16 Likes

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Babacele: 11:03pm On Feb 03, 2017
todayboy:
assuming gej is still in power there will be no recession in the first place
Buhari incompetence and pride brought recession to Nigeria
op no need to debate join the tuface protest lets chase the dullard out of asorock
then why did okonjo iweala in 2014 tell Us to prepare for recession?

3 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Nobody: 11:07pm On Feb 03, 2017
Babacele:
then why did okonjo iweala in 2014 tell Us to prepare for recession?

We are not in recession, we are in depression.

Major cause being unguarded speech of our President.

Who will invest in a community of broke people? Your business na charity?

14 Likes

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by theSpark(m): 11:26pm On Feb 03, 2017
It would not have been this terrible.

10 Likes

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Babacele: 11:46pm On Feb 03, 2017
soulpeppersoup:


We are not in recession, we are in depression.

Major cause being unguarded speech of our President.

Who will invest in a community of broke people? Your business na charity?
lols.....abegi we no dey depression ooo . the oil price fall is global and is hitting the OPEC nations more. please goggle it. We have been lucky to have a disciplined manager but needs to adjust some bit in his monetary policy- we need to spend our way out of this recession : jobs,loans, projects , farm business and exports with a fair judiciary and an anti corruption atmosphere . .....a lot of investment in agriculture and mining have actually taken place but not enough as we need more.
It would have been worse under one to whom stealing is not corruption. Tell me with the huge oil sales under him ,what did he achieve in 5 years? jobs, roads, health, food, electricity abi na wetin? let us call a spade a spade.

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Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Babacele: 11:48pm On Feb 03, 2017
todayboy:


so borrowing to pay salary is the definition of recession abi
so what is it? so you borrow when you have money?

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by StOla: 12:15am On Feb 04, 2017
A lot of wailers won't be able to answer the question.

They still cannot explain why the government of GEJ was borrowing to pay federal civil servants salaries in February, March and April 2015. This was just 8 months into crash of crudeoil price.
For a government that had earned the highest rates ever for the previous 4yrs but reduced the foreign reserves from $47b to $30b in its 5yrs tenure, is a failure who would have brought greater misery to Nigerians.

1 Like 1 Share

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Histrings08(m): 12:21am On Feb 04, 2017
I can't say Buh what I know is this, if we had voted for Gej instead of baba buhari, we'll be like buhari can do better... Buh there u av it

2 Likes

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by paschu: 12:30am On Feb 04, 2017
In a nutshell, three policy blunders destroyed the economy of the nation. And PMB was DIRECTLY responsible for all the three blunders. And, nope, the drop in oil price was not part of it.

1. Failing to unite the country; and provoking the Niger Delta uneccessarily

PMB, without any due consultations, terminated the survilence contract that had been handled by ND youths for years now. (By the way I heard that he had reawarded the contract to a notherner). As if that was not enough he cut down the budget for the armnesty programe and threatened to terminate the program altogether.

Of course this was after dividing the country into 97% and 5%. Mind you, sane people from around the world (and even here on NL) warned the govenment about its economic suscide mission. But they were too sturbborn and arrogant to listen to the voice of wisdom.

In fact they actually bombed ND with impunity, forgeting that there can never be prosperity where there is no peace. By the time the ND youths were done avenging whatever, the oil production had been virtually grounded. The country's major source of forex had just crumbled. And that was for several months.


2. Instigating massive capital flight and demolishing investors' confidence


Trump had 90% of his team up prior to his inaugration. But PMB took nearly six monrhs (AFTER his inaugration) to setup what can be termed Nigeria's worst cabinet since 1999. He even called them "noise makers" before their assembly. This delay in setting up the country's executive team made foreig direct investors to start looking elsewhere.

And by the time the presidency started demonizing and threathening everyone, the foreign investors started flying away in droves.Now add this to the fact that up till now this government does not have a seasoned economic team nor direction. This shows why official inflation rate got shoot up by more than 100% in a little over 1 year. (You certainly do not want to hear the unofficial rate).

3. Erratic approach to foreign exchange terms and other related policies.

First the govt. woke up one morning and decided that folks could no longer withdraw or deposite forex over the counter, thereby creating massive panic, confusion and more erossion of investor confidence. In fact many companies were blocked from accessing their funds in forex. But the govt. suddenly reversed this policy after creating nedless confusion. Talk of trial and error.

Later the case of needful devaluation (or free floating) of the Naira came up. But the presidency vowed that it would never happen thereby sending the remaining investors away.

Of course the govt. later shifted their position (after doing the damage) and claimed that they had adopted a free float system. But guess what? It's all a lie. Naira is still being pegged, though no longer at N199. However the investors are not fooled. So they are still not here.

Plus, when the import dependent economy could no longer be fueled with the scarce forex, the cost of production soared and so did the inflation, thereby crippling the production and GDP generally. Yet, all the while, interest rates remained high and wages were either slashed or owed.

And, mind you, while most manufacturers and importers could not access forex at reasonable rates and were therefore closing down their shops, some religious and connected folks were getting the stuff from the govt. at some obscene and insanely subsidized rates.

That's how we got here in a nutshell.

In conclusion...

Of course there is no way the previous govetnment (of seasoned technocrats) could have made any of the above three mistakes. And mind you those three mistakes are not actually distinct from each other. One simply led to the other until they translated to the vicious circle they are now. Unfortunately folks like you keep taking the night for the day.




Diamby:
People who criticize the present administration for the economic recession we are should tell us what the ousted government of GEJ would have done differently to halt the recession. We all know that i was the sharp drop in oil prices and lack of savings that threw us into this recession.Does jonathan have the powers to regulate international oil price? Nigeria is largely dependent on its earnings from crude oil for survival as such the oil prices affected our dollar earnings thereby causing the devaluation of the naira.I also ask what has previous administration done about diversifying the economy,building new refineries or revamping the old ones.power sector reforms as i know was a mess as most of the power infrastructure were handed over to those who have no capacity to manage them hence the eratic power supply we have now. The present govt might have its own issues about sound economic policies but i must say no foundation was built for the present government to build on so its like nigerian is just been nutured from the begining. Guys feel free to critise and add your own comments on how we found ourselves where we are today.Nigeria problem is structural.

33 Likes 6 Shares

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Donshegxy10(m): 12:44am On Feb 04, 2017
I don't think gej would have stopped the recession but I just think the slowness of buhari and his indecisive in policy making contribute much to the current situation of the nation.
Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by SalamRushdie: 12:59am On Feb 04, 2017
If GEJ had continued there would will be no recession but slow growth because most of the pipeline in the Niger delta would be operating optimally and though oil prices had fallen we would still be able to maximise out , electricity supply would have been better meaning more SME would have been producing ..Most multi national wouldn't have repatriated all the earning out of Nigeria because of Buharis body language which would mean more deposits in our banks , Foriegners investments would still be flowing in and it will stimulate the economy...TSA would have been implemented in stages thereby availing banks with more money to trade with and stimulate the real sector

14 Likes

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Sibrah: 1:29am On Feb 04, 2017
Diamby:
People who criticize the present administration for the economic recession we are should tell us what the ousted government of GEJ would have done differently to halt the recession. We all know that i was the sharp drop in oil prices and lack of savings that threw us into this recession.Does jonathan have the powers to regulate international oil price? Nigeria is largely dependent on its earnings from crude oil for survival as such the oil prices affected our dollar earnings thereby causing the devaluation of the naira.I also ask what has previous administration done about diversifying the economy,building new refineries or revamping the old ones.power sector reforms as i know was a mess as most of the power infrastructure were handed over to those who have no capacity to manage them hence the eratic power supply we have now. The present govt might have its own issues about sound economic policies but i must say no foundation was built for the present government to build on so its like nigerian is just been nutured from the begining. Guys feel free to critise and add your own comments on how we found ourselves where we are today.Nigeria problem is structural.
here is what I wrote in another thread

60% of those protesting are doing cos there was a protest against Jo's govt barely 2 years into his tenure.
Most people know the diff between $108pb and $50pb.
At about $58 extra per barrel of oil, GEJ govt could have build a dangote-sized refinery and ended our fuel struggle for the next 15 years.
Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by allfriends(m): 1:30am On Feb 04, 2017
The word .. Buhari .. Makes me want to poke

2 Likes

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Sibrah: 1:34am On Feb 04, 2017
Like OP rightly pointed out the power sector privatization was a flopped one. We gave the wrong people our infrastructure. The bulk of responsibility in our power system or grid is carried by the GENCOs and TCN, but the Discos are well positioned to make killer profit and fustrate their effort with by rejecting or interrupting supply.
Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by todayboy: 1:34am On Feb 04, 2017
we know the problem
thats why they vote Jonathan out
tell us what Buhari is doing about it
things is getting worse kids like you dey write non sense here

Babacele:
lols.....abegi we no dey depression ooo . the oil price fall is global and is hitting the OPEC nations more. please goggle it. We have been lucky to have a disciplined manager but needs to adjust some bit in his monetary policy- we need to spend our way out of this recession : jobs,loans, projects , farm business and exports with a fair judiciary and an anti corruption atmosphere . .....a lot of investment in agriculture and mining have actually taken place but not enough as we need more.
It would have been worse under one to whom stealing is not corruption. Tell me with the huge oil sales under him ,what did he achieve in 5 years? jobs, roads, health, food, electricity abi na wetin? let us call a spade a spade.

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Sibrah: 1:39am On Feb 04, 2017
SalamRushdie:
If GEJ had continued there would will be no recession but slow growth because most of the pipeline in the Niger delta would be operating optimally and though oil prices had fallen we would still be able to maximise out , electricity supply would have been better meaning more SME would have been producing ..Most multi national wouldn't have repatriated all the earning out of Nigeria because of Buharis body language which would mean more deposits in our banks , Foriegners investments would still be flowing in and it will stimulate the economy...TSA would have been implemented in stages thereby availing banks with more money to trade with and stimulate the real sector
You presented a valid arguement but exergerated its effect enough to assume a positive impact on the economy. I doubt the uninterrupted flow of oil would have kept the economy out of recession because Jo's govt lack a spending valve. He spent and borrowed like we were borrowing in kobo.

1 Like 1 Share

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by todayboy: 1:39am On Feb 04, 2017
for your information all most all country in the world borrows
the ones that buhari is earning now what his he doing with it
stop telling us about the problem you want solution thats why you vote buhari tell him to solve the

you better join the protest on the 6th
the main reason why we are in recession is Buhari delay in setting up his government in time, unguarded statements and selection justice that's why we are where we are today

StOla:
A lot of wailers won't be able to answer the question.

They still cannot explain why the government of GEJ was borrowing to pay federal civil servants salaries in February, March and April 2015. This was just 8 months into crash of crudeoil price.
For a government that had earned the highest rates ever for the previous 4yrs but reduced the foreign reserves from $47b to $30b in its 5yrs tenure, is a failure who would have brought greater misery to Nigerians.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by todayboy: 1:40am On Feb 04, 2017
YOU HAVE SAID IT ALL
NOTHING MORE
op you btter join the protest on the 6th

paschu:
In a nutshell, three policy blunders destroyed the economy of the nation. And PMB was DIRECTLY responsible for all the three blunders. And, nope, the drop in oil price was not part of it.

1. Failing to unite the country; and provoking the Niger Delta uneccessarily

PMB, without any due consultations, terminated the survilence contract that had been handled by ND youths for years now. (By the way I heard that he had reawarded the contract to a notherner). As if that was not enough he cut down the budget for the armnesty programe and threatened to terminate the program altogether.

Of course this was after dividing the country into 97% and 5%. Mind you, sane people from around the world (and even here on NL) warned the govenment about its economic suscide mission. But they were too sturbborn and arrogant to listen to the voice of wisdom.

In fact they actually bombed ND with impunity, forgeting that there can never be prosperity where there is no peace. By the time the ND youths were done avenging whatever, the oil production had been virtually grounded. The country's major source of forex had just crumbled. And that was for several months.


2. Instigating massive capital flight and demolishing investors' confidence


Trump had 90% of his team up prior to his inaugration. But PMB took nearly six monrhs (AFTER his inaugration) to setup what can be termed Nigeria's worst cabinet since 1999. He even called them "noise makers" before their assembly. This delay in setting up the country's executive team made foreig direct investors to start looking elsewhere.

And by the time the presidency started demonizing and threathening everyone, the foreign investors started flying away in droves.Now add this to the fact that up till now this government does not have a seasoned economic team nor direction. This shows why official inflation rate got shoot up by more than 100% in a little over 1 year. (You certainly do not want to hear the unofficial rate).

3. Erratic approach to foreign exchange terms and other related policies.

First the govt. woke up one morning and decided that folks could no longer withdraw or deposite forex over the counter, thereby creating massive panic, confusion and more erossion of investor confidence. In fact many companies were blocked from accessing their funds in forex. But the govt. suddenly reversed this policy after creating nedless confusion. Talk of trial and error.

Later the case of needful devaluation (or free floating) of the Naira came up. But the presidency vowed that it would never happen thereby sending the remaining investors away.

Of course the govt. later shifted their position (after doing the damage) and claimed that they had adopted a free float system. But guess what? It's all a lie. Naira is still being pegged, though no longer at N199. However the investors are not fooled. So they are still not here.

Plus, when the import dependent economy could no longer be fueled with the scarce forex, the cost of production soared and so did the inflation, thereby crippling the production and GDP generally. Yet, all the while, interest rates remained high and wages were either slashed or owed.

And, mind you, while most manufacturers and importers could not access forex at reasonable rates and were therefore closing down their shops, some religious and connected folks were getting the stuff from the govt. at some obscene and insanely subsidized rates.

That's how we got here in a nutshell.

In conclusion...

Of course there is no way the previous govetnment (of seasoned technocrats) could have made any of the above three mistakes. And mind you those three mistakes are not actually distinct from each other. One simply led to the other until they translated to the vicious circle they are now. Unfortunately folks like you keep taking the night for the day.




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Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Sibrah: 1:47am On Feb 04, 2017
todayboy:
for your information all most all country in the world borrows
the ones that buhari is earning now what his he doing with it
stop telling us about the problem you want solution thats why you vote buhari tell him to solve the

you better join the protest on the 6th
the main reason why we are in recession is Buhari delay in setting up his government in time, unguarded statements and selection justice that's why we are where we are today

If truly GEJ managed the economy well and had superior policies, why did the economy drop towards the end of his tenure when the full effect of the extra ~$60pb his govt enjoyed and his good policies should have been in full trottle?



Like I wrote in another thread:

60% of those protesting are doing cos there was a protest against Jo's govt barely 2 years into his tenure. Most people know the diff between $108pb and $50pb.
At about $58 extra per barrel of oil, GEJ govt could have build a dangote-sized refinery and ended our fuel struggle for the next 15 years.

1 Like

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Sibrah: 1:50am On Feb 04, 2017
paschu:
In a nutshell, three policy blunders destroyed the economy of the nation. And PMB was DIRECTLY responsible for all the three blunders. And, nope, the drop in oil price was not
. . . .
Blah blah blah . . .
Stop typing long epistles . . . Even with $58pb extra earning the economy was already on a declind. Our system of regulating stable dollar rate was largely dependent on govt's ability to supple most of the dollar demand at a fair rate and this was influenced by petrodollar earning as oil price crash meant inadequate dollar supply. Demand and supply law kicked in and we saw a increase in price of a scarce item - Dollar.

1 Like

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by todayboy: 1:51am On Feb 04, 2017
SUMMARISE IT NA
Sibrah:
Stop typing long epistles . . .
Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Sibrah: 1:57am On Feb 04, 2017
todayboy:
SUMMARISE IT NA
I will prefer to summarise your posts so far in this thread . . . Protes, protest and more protest !!!
Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by mykelmeezy: 2:13am On Feb 04, 2017
Question for ifa and yemoja

The same way we would have labelled buhari as "the best president Nigeria NEVER had" had he not won 2015


Same applies here......things would have been better with gej


8

1 Like

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Nobody: 2:24am On Feb 04, 2017
Ask yourself how much is crude oil today $56 .
How much was it during OBJ ? (Less not discuss GEJ tenure.)

From 99 - 2013 oil was less than $30

Yet same period we paid off our Paris club debt of over $18b

Had massive employment as a result of soludo's consolidation policy.

Had more money at grassroots, local government due to OBJ policy of allocating money directly to LGA

Built a national stadium for all African games.

Build 2 gas powered stations at geragu, kogi ( obj tribalism killed those projects, was advised to build the stations in Bayelsa and Ogutta in imo state where there are already massive gas storage floating stations. he chose to build in kogi and ogun state, to be supplied with gas by pipeline from same stations in bayelsa and ogutta. We all knw the scores for pipeline vandalism in this country)

Increased minimum wage to 18k or so

In are in this deep recession not because of oil price to be fair, it's chiefly due to bad policies .

Restriction on hard currency. ; importers are struggling.
The few imported items are bought with dollars from black market. - of course the cost is passed down to the consumer.

Slow implementation of budget. - money is tied down. No nothing. Everything in the budget , big capital expenditures have not been green lighted , we are already in 2017.

2017 budget is still a mirage.

Ban and increase custom duties on everyday use items .
Nigeria will not overnight start to produce these items. You need to import machineries to manufacture these items, set up companies, build a manufacturing Base,
Factory setup.

No electricity even if a Nigerian company can manufacture some of these imported items they will still be exorbitant as they would have been produced with diesel powered generators.

4 Likes

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Nobody: 2:30am On Feb 04, 2017
OBJ BUHARI

Nivea rollon 65 700

Toyota corolla 1.4m 12million

Nodules

Bag of rice
Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by Nobody: 2:53am On Feb 04, 2017
Another point ..

1 Like

Re: Would GEJ Have Stopped This Recession? by mrvitalis(m): 2:58am On Feb 04, 2017
codedruns2:
Ask yourself how much is crude oil today $56 .
How much was it during OBJ ? (Less not discuss GEJ tenure.)

From 99 - 2013 oil was less than $30

Yet same period we paid off our Paris club debt of over $18b

Had massive employment as a result of soludo's consolidation policy.

Had more money at grassroots, local government due to OBJ policy of allocating money directly to LGA

Built a national stadium for all African games.

Build 2 gas powered stations at geragu, kogi ( obj tribalism killed those projects, was advised to build the stations in Bayelsa and Ogutta in imo state where there are already massive gas storage floating stations. he chose to build in kogi and ogun state, to be supplied with gas by pipeline from same stations in bayelsa and ogutta. We all knw the scores for pipeline vandalism in this country)

Increased minimum wage to 18k or so

In are in this deep recession not because of oil price to be fair, it's chiefly due to bad policies .

Restriction on hard currency. ; importers are struggling.
The few imported items are bought with dollars from black market. - of course the cost is passed down to the consumer.

Slow implementation of budget. - money is tied down. No nothing. Everything in the budget , big capital expenditures have not been green lighted , we are already in 2017.

2017 budget is still a mirage.

Ban and increase custom duties on everyday use items .
Nigeria will not overnight start to produce these items. You need to import machineries to manufacture these items, set up companies, build a manufacturing Base,
Factory setup.

No electricity even if a Nigerian company can manufacture some of these imported items they will still be exorbitant as they would have been produced with diesel powered generators.






Using obasanjo tenure to compare is funny.. It means u don't understand the effect of demand and supply


What's important is what was the supply in respect to demand

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